HomeMy WebLinkAbout21-06 Impact Analysis0
IMPACT ANALYSIS STATEMENT
WILLOW RUN REZONING
Shawnee Magisterial District
Frederick County, Virginia
Tax Parcels 53- ((A)) -90; 53- ((A)) -91; 53- ((A)) -92;
53- ((A)) -92A; 53- ((A)) -92B; 53- ((A)) -94;
53- ((3)) -A & 63- ((A)) -2A
0 359.97± Acres
September 1, 2005
Revised November 4, 2005
Revised June 27, 2006
Revised November 18, 2006
Current Owners: 740 LLC
750 LLC
Willow Grove L.C.
Greystone Properties, LLC
Miller and Smith at Willow Run, L.L.C.
Contact Person: Evan Wyatt, AICP
Greenway Engineering
151 Windy Hill Lane
• Winchester, VA 22602
540 - 662 -4185
Greenway Engineering • September I, 2005 • Willow Run Rezoning
Revised November 4, 2005
Revised June 27, 2006
Revised November 18, 2006
•
WILLOW RUN REZONING
INTRODUCTION
This report has been prepared for the purpose of assessing the impact on Fredrick County
by the proffered rezoning of eight contiguous parcels comprising 359.97± acres, owned
by 740 LLC, 750 LLC, Willow Grove L.C., Greystone Properties, LLC, and Miller and
Smith at Willow Run, L.L.C. The subject properties are located adjacent to and east of
Route 37, adjacent to and east of Merriman's Lane (Route 621), adjacent to and south of
the Winchester and Western Railroad, north of Cedar Creek Grade, and adjacent to and
south and west of the City of Winchester Corporate Limits. The current zoning of the
parcels comprising the 359.97± -acre tract is RA, Rural Areas District. The property
owners propose to rezone these parcels to create a 359.97± acre Traditional
Neighborhood Development that will be zoned R4, Residential Planned Community
District. Please refer to the proffered Willow Run Master Development Plan.
Basic information
• Location: East of Route 37 and Merriman's Lane (Route 621),
North of Cedar Creek Grade (Route 622), South and
West of the City of Winchester Corporate Limits
Magisterial District: Shawnee
Property ID Numbers: 53- ((A)) -90, 53- ((A)) -91, 53- ((A)) -92, 53- ((A))-
92A, 53- ((A)) -92B, 53- ((A)) -94, 53- ((3)) -A, 63-
((A))-2A
Current Zoning: RA, Rural Areas District
Current Use: Agricultural and Residential Uses
Proposed Use: Traditional Neighborhood Development
Proposed Zoning: R4, Residential Planned Community District
Total rezoning area: 359.97± -acres
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COMPREHENSIVE PLAN
September I, 2005
Revised November 4, 2005
Revised June 27, 2006
Revised November 18, 2006
Willow Run Rezoning
The parcels comprising the subject site are located within the study area boundary of the
Western Jubal Early Land Use Plan. The Board of Supervisors adopted the policies
guiding future land use development within the Western Jubal Early Land Use Plan on
February 11, 2004. These policies recommend that the predominant land use should be
urban and suburban residential use with areas of mixed residential and commercial land
use along the planned route of the Jubal Early Drive extension. A Master Development
Plan has been prepared and proffered for Willow Run, which depicts the Traditional
Neighborhood Design (TND) elements of the site that will be developed as residential
and commercial land use. Additionally, the Applicants' proffer statement provides for a
residential unit matrix table that provides for a minimum and maximum percentage of
age- restricted, single - family attached, single - family detached and multifamily housing
product types. The 359.97± -acre site is located within the Urban Development Area
(UDA) and the Sewer and Water Service Area (SWSA); therefore, expansion of the UDA
and SWSA beyond the existing property boundaries is not required by this application.
• A. SUITABILITY OF THE SITE
Access
The subject site is accessible from Cedar Creek Grade (Route 622), Merriman's Lane
(Route 621), and through the extension of Jubal Early Drive and Cidermill Lane, which
currently terminate in the City of Winchester. The extension of Sterling Drive is not
proposed due to additional impacts to the wetland areas that have been identified by the
Corp of Engineers on the south side of Jubal Early Drive extended. Connections to, and
extensions of all other identified roads will provide safe and efficient access to Willow
Run. Cidermill Lane is proffered to be constructed and barricaded until the new
interchange ramps at Route 37 and Jubal Early Drive are open to the public.
The Western Jubal Early Drive Land Use Plan (WJELUP) identifies the extension of
Jubal Early Drive in an east -to -west direction through the limits of the subject site and
connecting to Route 37 West at a new interchange. Furthermore, this plan identifies a
new major collector road, which connects Cedar Creek Grade to Jubal Early Drive in a
north -tG -south direction. The need for intermodal access is also identified in the land use
plan, which recommends the expansion of the Green Circle bicycle and pedestrian
facility into the County with linkages to the west and south.
The Applicants' proffer statement has been designed to implement the transportation
• network identified in the Comprehensive Policy Plan. The transportation proffers allow
for traffic from the development to access Jubal Early Drive and Cedar Creek Grade
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Greenway Engineering • September 1, 2005 • Willow Run Rezoning
Revised November 4, 2005
Revised June 27, 2006
Revised November 18, 2006
• during the initial development phases of Willow Run, while access to Route 37 is
proffered to occur through the development of new interchange ramps prior to the 600`
residential permit (less than 45% of the total development program). The Applicants'
proffer statement also provides for the continuation of the Green Circle along the south
side of Jubal Early Drive, with an additional bicycle and pedestrian system traveling
south connecting to Sandyridge Boulevard to the southern limits of Willow Run.
Flood 1p ains
The subject site is located on the FEMA NFIP Map #510063- 0115 -B. The FEMA NFIP
Map identifies floodplain areas associated with Abrams Creek from the north side of
Northwestern Pike (Route 50 West) to the west side of Merriman's Lane (Route 621).
The limits of the study end at this point; however, it is reasonable to expect the floodplain
areas identified as Zone A to continue through the northern portion of the subject site
along Abrams Creek to the City of Winchester Corporate Limits. The Applicants have
prepared a Phase I Environmental Assessment Report and a Wetlands Delineation Report
for the subject properties, a copy of which has been provided to the Planning Department.
The Applicants' proffered Master Development Plan delineates the location of the
floodplain areas on the subject site that are based on the results of the detailed CLOMR
study associated with the extension of Jubal Early Drive. The Applicants submitted the
• CLOMR study to FEMA and have received approval to ensure that there are no adverse
impacts to the Abram's Creek floodway resulting from the extension of Jubal Early
Drive. Protected and disturbed floodplain areas are identified on the proffered Master
Development Plan, of which, the impacted areas are only associated with the extension of
Jubal Early Drive.
Wetlands
The National Wetlands Inventory Map identifies two areas of wetlands along the northern
and eastern portions of the 359.97± -acre site. The Applicants have prepared a Wetlands
Delineation Report for the subject properties, a copy of which has been provided to the
County Engineer and the Planning Department. The U.S. Army Corp of Engineers has
issued a Jurisdictional Determination Letter establishing the location of all wetland areas
on -site, and a wetlands permit has been approved by the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers
and the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality based on an approved wetlands
mitigation plan prepared by the Applicants. Protected and disturbed wetland areas are
identified on the proffered Master Development Plan, of which, the impacted areas are
only associated with the extension of Jubal Early Drive.
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• Steep Slopes
September I, 2005
Revised November 4, 2005
Revised June 27, 2006
Revised November 18, 2006
0 Willow Run Rezoning
Minor areas of steep slope exist on the 359.97± -acre site, of which, a small area is located
adjacent to the wetland by Abram's Creek, a small area is located by the major karst
feature in the southeastern portion of the site, and a small area is located adjacent to
Cedar Creek Grade. Disturbance of the small area of steep slope adjacent to Cedar Creek
Grade will occur to implement the road improvements that are proffered by the
Applicants along the Cedar Creek Grade frontage. These areas of disturbance are
identified on the proffered Master Development Plan for Willow Run to ensure
compliance with County Ordinance requirements.
Mature Woodlands
Areas of mature deciduous trees exist along the Abram's Creek corridor, as well as in the
western and central portions of the 359.97± -acre site. It is anticipated that these areas
will be impacted by the future development of road systems, utility infrastructure,
residential land bays, and the commercial center area; however, the subsequent
Subdivision Design Plans will attempt to provide for linear tree save areas of mature trees
once grading limits are determined. Furthermore, disturbed mature tree areas and
existing open areas will be replanted with new trees to meet the requirements of the
• County Ordinance that was adopted by the Board of Supervisors in April 2003.
Soil T3Tes
The Soil Survey of Fredrick County published by the USDA Soil Conservation Service
was consulted to determine soil types contained in this tract. The subject site is located
on map sheet number 24 & 30, and contains the following soil types:
5B -Carbo Silt Loam: 2 -7% slope
14B- Frederick - Poplimento Loam:
2 -7% slope
14C- Frederick - Poplimento Loam:
7 -15% slope
14D- Frederick - Poplimento Loam:
15 -25% slope
16C- Frederick - Poplimento Loam
— Very Rocky: 7 -15% slope
16D- Frederick - Poplimento Loam
— Very Rocky: 15 -25% slope
17C- Frederick - Poplimento Rock Outcrop Complex: 2 -15% slope
17E- Frederick - Poplimento Rock Outcrop Complex: 15 -45% slope
29- Massanetta Loam
Table 5 on page 123 of the Soil Survey of Frederick County identifies the 513-Carbo Silt
Loam, the 14B- Frederick - Poplimento and 29- Massanetta Loam as prime farmland soils.
• Frederick - Poplimento loams comprise the majority of the subject site, which possess
moderate shrink -swell potential. A band of Carbo Silt loam follows the western portion
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Greenway Engineering September I, 2005 Willow Run Rezoning
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Revised June 27, 2006
Revised November 18, 2006
• of the subject site, which possesses a high shrink -swell potential, while Massanetta loam
is located within the defined flood plain and wetland areas. These soil types are
consistent with the soil types found in the neighboring Meadow Branch and Morlyn Hills
communities; therefore, community development activities can be supported by the soil
conditions on the subject site. Development within the Massanetta loam soils will be
limited to the extension of Jubal Early Drive. The Applicants will conduct geotechnical
analysis throughout the development of Willow Run for road construction, utility
installation, and the development of residential and commercial land bays. Geotechnical
analysis will be provided to the project engineer which will be taken into consideration
during the design of the project.
B. SURROUNDING PROPERTIES
Adjoining Property Zoning and Present Use:
North: Zoned Planned Unit Development (PUD - LR) Use: Residential
South: Zoned Residential Performance (RP) Use: Residential
• Zoned Rural Areas (RA) Use: Commercial &
Agricultural
East: Zoned Planned Unit Development (PUD -HR) Use: Residential
West: Zoned Residential Performance (RP) Use: Residential
Zoned Rural Areas (RA) Use: Residential &
Golf Course
C. TRANSPORTATION
The subject site is accessible from Cedar Creek Grade (Route 622), Merriman's Lane
(Route 621), and through the extension of Jubal Early Drive and Cidermill Lane, which
currently terminate in the City of Winchester. The Western Jubal Early Drive Land Use
Plan identifies the extension of Jubal Early Drive in an east -to -west direction through the
limits of the subject site and connecting to Route 37 at a new interchange. Furthermore,
this plan identifies a new major collector road, which connects Cedar Creek Grade to
Jubal Early Drive in a north -to -south direction. The need for intermodal access is also
identified in the land use plan, which recommends the expansion of the Green Circle
bicycle and pedestrian facility into the County with linkages to the west and south.
• A traffic impact analysis (TIA) has been prepared for the Willow Run Community by
Patton Harris Rust & Associates, pc dated June 22, 2006 (revised from the April 18,
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Greenway Engineering • September 1, 2005 Willow Run Rezoning
Revised November 4, 2005
Revised June 27, 2006
Revised November 18, 2006
• 2006, the July 12, 2005 and November 2004 submissions), which is included as a
component of the Impact Analysis Statement. The TIA assumes the total build out of
1,439 residential units and 375,000 square feet of commercial retail and office land use
by year 2012 as a two -phase plan. The first transportation phase projects the impacts
associated with the development of 599 residential units, and the second transportation
phase projects the impacts associated the total build out of the Willow Run Community
that includes 1,439 residential units and 375,000 square -feet of commercial retail and
office land use. The TIA provides for a Level of Service (LOS) analysis for AM and PM
peak hour traffic volumes, as well as Average Daily Trip (ADT) volumes for existing,
background and build -out conditions for each transportation phase. The TIA studies all
critical intersections in the Willow Run Community and within close proximity of the
Willow Run Traditional Neighborhood Development, the existing Route 37 interchange
.ramps at Route 50 West and Cedar Creek Grade for the regional transportation system,
and the continuation of Jubal Early Drive from its terminus in the City of Winchester to
Merriman's Lane.
The Phase 1 and Phase 2 Build -Out Lane Geometry and Level of Service (LOS) for AM
and PM Peak Hour traffic volumes identify the projected traffic impacts for all critical
intersections within the project and within close proximity of the Willow Run Traditional
Neighborhood Development, the new Route 37 interchange ramps at Jubal Early Drive
and Merriman's Lane and the existing Route 37 interchange ramps at Route 50 West and
. Cedar Creek Grade for the regional transportation system, and the continuation of Jubal
Early Drive from its terminus in the City of Winchester to Route 37 at Merriman's Lane.
The TIA demonstrates that the build -out of the first transportation phase (599 residential
units) can occur while achieving acceptable levels of service on all internal streets and at
the intersection of Jubal Early Drive and Meadow Branch Avenue, as well as at the
intersection of Cedar Creek Grade and Birchmont Drive. The TIA further demonstrates
that the transportation impacts associated with the build -out of the Willow Run
Traditional Neighborhood Development, coupled with the projected background traffic
impacts, are acceptable at the signalized Jubal Early Drive intersection with Meadow
Branch Avenue, at the signalized Jubal Early Drive intersection with Merriman's Lane, at
the signalized intersection of Birchmont Drive and Cedar Creek Grade, and at the new
Route 37 interchange roundabout ramps. The TIA demonstrates that deficient levels of
service exist at the unsignalized Route 37 ramps at Cedar Creek Grade, at the Route 37
ramps at Route 50 West, at the intersection of Jubal Early Drive and Valley Avenue, and
at the intersection of Valley Avenue and Cedar Creek Grade. However, the TIA also
demonstrates that build -out of the Willow Run Traditional Neighborhood Development
does not further reduce the levels of service at the Route 37 interchanges at Cedar Creek
Grade and Route 50 West more than the impacts associated with background traffic.
Additionally, the build -out of the Willow Run Traditional Neighborhood Development
slightly reduces the levels of service at the Jubal Early Drive and Valley Avenue
intersection during AM peak hour and at the Valley Avenue and Cedar Creek Grade
intersection during PM peak hour.
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Greenway Engineering • September I, 2005 Willow Run Rezoning
Revised November 4, 2005
Revised June 27, 2006
Revised November 18, 2006
• The Applicants' proffer statement has been designed to address the transportation
impacts associated with the build -out of the Willow Run Traditional Neighborhood
Development, and to assist in the mitigation of several regional transportation issues that
are a result of other development projects and projected traffic volume increases. These
proffered transportation improvements include the following:
Proffered Transportation Improvement Program
•
Completely fund and construct the four -lane divided section of Jubal Early
Drive from the current terminus in City of Winchester to the first
intersection west of the eastern neighborhood commercial land bays prior to
issuance of the 300 residential building permit.
•
Completely fund and construct the four -lane divided section of Jubal Early
Drive from the first intersection west of the eastern neighborhood
commercial land bays to the first commercial center intersection prior to
issuance of 450 residential building permit.
•
Completely fund and construct the four -lane divided section of Jubal Early
Drive from the terminus of the first commercial center intersection to the
Route 37 northbound on and off ramps prior to issuance of 600 residential
building permit.
•
.
Completely fund and construct the new Route 37 /Jubal Early Drive
interchange northbound and southbound on and off ramps using the existing
bridge structure prior to the issuance of the 600 residential building permit.
•
Allow the developer construction dollars for the new Route 37 /Jubal Early
Drive interchange northbound and southbound on and off ramps to be
utilized as matching funds unconditionally by Frederick County for
additional transportation system improvements.
•
Completely fund and construct the realignment of approximately 1,000 feet
of the two -lane section of Merriman's Lane (Route 621) to the north of Jubal
Early Drive to create a "T" intersection prior to issuance of 600 residential
building permit.
•
Complete Birchmont Drive between Juba] Early Drive and Cedar Creek
Grade by the issuance of the 200 residential building permit.
•
Execute a signalization agreement with VDOT to fully fund traffic
signalization at the intersection of Jubal Early Drive and Meadow Branch
Avenue.
•
Execute a signalization agreement with VDOT to fully fund traffic
signalization at the intersection of Jubal Early Drive and the Merriman's
Lane north realignment at the commercial center intersection.
•
Execute a signalization agreement with VDOT to fully fund traffic
signalization at the intersection of Cedar Creek Grade and Birchmont Drive.
•
Completely fund and construct right and left turn lane improvements at the
•
intersection of Cedar Creek Grade and Birchmont Drive.
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Greenway Engineering 0 September 1, 2005 Willow Run Rezoning
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Revised lane 27, 2006
Revised November 18, 2006
• Provide $100,000 to the City of Winchester for off -site transportation
improvements.
The Applicants' proffered transportation program will mitigate the impacts associated
with the development of the Willow Run Community and will improve existing and
future conditions associated with other off -site regional transportation matters. The
complete funding and development of Jubal Early Drive and the new Route 37
interchange ramps will occur during the construction of the Willow Run Traditional
Neighborhood Development, which offers solutions to two significant regional
transportation elements identified in the Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO)
2030 Transportation Plan for the benefit of both County and City residents.
D. SEWAGE CONVEYANCE AND TREATMENT
The 359.97± -acre site is located within the Urban Development Area (UDA) and the
Sewer and Water Service Area (SWSA) boundaries. In May 2004, the Frederick County
Sanitation Authority Board voted to provide public sewer service to the Willow Run
• Community. This determination requires the Frederick County Sanitation Authority
(FCSA) to develop the infrastructure system necessary to service the Willow Run
Community.
The FCSA has undertaken an infrastructure project for the design and construction of a
new sewer force main that will connect to the Willow Run Community at the Birchmont
Drive intersection at Cedar Creek Grade and the 15" Hogue Run Sewer Interceptor,
which directs flows to the Parkins Mill Wastewater Treatment Facility. The design of the
new sewer force main will provide capacity that is adequate to accommodate the
residential and commercial land uses associated with the Willow Run Community and
additional development within the area.
The Applicants will provide for a new sewer pump station that will be located in the
northeastern portion of the property adjacent to the Abram's Creek wetlands. The design
of the new sewer pump station will provide capacity that is adequate to accommodate the
residential and commercial land uses associated with the Willow Run Community, and
will be expandable to serve additional development within the area. The Applicants will
also provide for a new sewer force main that connects the new sewer pump station to the
FCSA new sewer force main at Cedar Creek Grade. The new sewer force main will be
sized as a minimum 12 -inch main to accommodate the residential and commercial land
uses associated with the Willow Run Community and additional development within the
area. The on -site sewer infrastructure required to convey effluent to the Parkins Mill
Wastewater Treatment Facility will be developed by the Applicants to standards
acceptable to the FCSA for their future operation and maintenance.
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Greenway Engineering • September 1, 2005 • Willow Run Rezoning
Revised November 4, 2005
Revised June 27, 2006
Revised November 18, 2006
•
The impact of rezoning the 359.97± -acre site can be based on comparable discharge
patterns of 500 gallons - per -day (GPD) per acre for commercial land use and 225 GPD for
residential land use. The figures below represent the impact that the total build out of the
36 -acre commercial areas of commercial and office land use and the proffered 1,390
residential units will have on the sewage conveyance and treatment systems.
Q = 500 GPD per acre
Q = 500 GPD x 36 acres of commercial and office land use
Q = 18,000 GPD projected at total commercial build out
Q = 225 GPD per household
Q = 225 GPD x 1,390 residential units
Q = 312,750 GPD projected at total residential build out
TOTAL Q = 330,750 GPD at total project build out
The proposed rezoning is projected to increase flows to the Parkins Mill Wastewater
Treatment Facility by 330,750 GPD at total build out. The Applicants have proffered to
develop the Willow Run Community through a phased permitting plan that limits the
. number of residential building permits that can be obtained on an annual basis. This
phased permitting plan will ensure that the build -out of the Willow Run Community
cannot occur until calendar year 2012 at the earliest. The Frederick County Sanitation
Authority Board has approved a plan to expand the capacity of the Parkins Mill
Wastewater Treatment Facility to 5 million gallons per day (MGD). The 5 MGD
expansion of the Parkins Mill Wastewater Treatment Facility is projected to be complete
in 2009, which will occur 3 years prior to the earliest possible build -out of the Willow
Run Community based on the proffered phased permitting plan. Adequate capacity for
sewage conveyance and treatment will be available throughout the development of the
Willow Run Community as a result of the infrastructure improvements provided by the
Applicants and the FCSA.
E. WATER SUPPLY
The 359.97± -acre site is located within the Urban Development Area (UDA) and the
Sewer and Water Service Area (SWSA) boundaries. In May 2004, the Frederick County
Sanitation Authority Board voted to provide public water service to the Willow Run
Community. This determination requires the Frederick County Sanitation Authority
(FCSA) to develop the infrastructure system necessary to service the Willow Run
. Community.
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Greenway Engineering • September 1, 2005 • Willow Run Rezoning
Revised November 4, 2005
Revised June 27, 2006
Revised November 18, 2006
The FCSA will provide a water transmission line that will follow Route 37 and adjoin the
Willow Run Community. This water transmission line will create a loop system that ties
together the water systems to the north between the Sunnyside Community and to the
south in the Apple Valley Road and Shady Elm Road area. This loop will allow for water
service to be provided from both the Stephens City quarry system from the James H.
Diehl Water Filtration Plant and the Clearbrook quarry system from the North Water
Filtration Plant. These systems currently provide 6.0 MGD and can be increased to 10
MGD. The on -site water infrastructure required to convey potable water to the proposed
residential and commercial land uses in the Willow Run Community will be developed
by the applicants to standards acceptable to the FCSA for future operation and
maintenance.
The impact of rezoning the 359.97± -acre site can be based on comparable water usage of
1,000 GPD per acre for commercial and office land use and 275 GPD per unit for
residential land use. The figures below represent the impact that the total build out of the
36 -acre commercial areas of commercial and office land use and the proffered 1,390
residential units will have on the water supply and treatment systems.
Q = 1,000 GPD per acre
Q = 1,000 GPD x 36 acres
• Q = 36,000 GPD projected at total commercial and office build out
Q = 275 GPD per household
Q = 275 GPD x 1,390 residential units
Q = 382,250 GPD projected at total residential build out
TOTAL Q = 418,250 GPD at total project build out
The projected water usage for the proposed rezoning is 418,250 GPD at total build out.
This projection represents approximately 10% of the unutilized capacities at the James H.
Diehl Water Filtration Plant and the North Water Filtration Treatment Plan. Therefore,
available water source and infrastructure will be adequate to accommodate the capacity
needs of the proposed residential and commercial land uses for the Willow Run
Community.
F. DRAINAGE
The 359.97± -acre parcel has pronounced drainage divides, which follow the ridgelines
located in the western and central portions of the project site. These drainage divides
direct stormwater to the central and western portions of the project site, which then flow
• in a northern direction to Abram's Creek and to the southwest near Route 37. The
Willow Run Community will be designed to capture the majority of the stormwater flows
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Greenway Engineering September 1, 2005 • Willow Run Rezoning
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Revised June 27, 2006
Revised November 18, 2006
in the central portion of the development within a man -made lake that will be
approximately 5 -acres in size. This lake will be created within the central portion of the
Willow Run Community and designed as an amenity for the community and will be
maintained by the Willow Run Homeowners Association. Smaller drainage areas that do
not flow to the man-made lake will be designed to direct stormwater flows to the
Abram's Creek channel. The Applicants' proffer statement provides for the use of best
management practices (BMP) in conjunction with all commercial land uses to mitigate
water quality impacts to Abram's Creek. This proffer statement also commits to the
preparation of a geotechnical analysis for the purpose of ensuring that development
impacts near the major karst feature do not adversely impact water quality through storm
water management design. Storm water management will be designed in accordance
with all applicable state and local storm water management requirements and erosion and
sedimentation control requirements.
G. SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL
The impact on solid waste disposal facilities can be projected from an average annual
business consumption of landfill volume of 5.4 cubic yards per 1,000 sq ft. of structural
floor area and an average annual residential consumption of 5.4 cubic yards per
. household (Civil Engineering Reference Manual, 4` edition). The following figures
show the increase in average annual volume based on the 375,000 square feet of
commercial and office land use, and 1,390 residential units that are projected to develop
over a 7 -year period:
AV = 5.4 Cu. Yd. per 1,000 sq. ft.
AV = 5.4 Cu. Yd. x 375 (1,000 sq. ft.)
AV = 2,025 Cu. Yd. at commercial build out/yr, or 1,418 tons /yr at build out
AV = 5.4 Cu. Yd. per household
AV = 5.4 Cu. Yd. x 1,390 households
AV = 7,506 Cu. Yd. at residential build out, or 5,255 tons /yr at build out
TOTAL AV = 6,673 tons /yr / 7 -yr build -out = 954 ton annual increase at build out
The Municipal Solid Waste area of the Regional Landfill has a current remaining
capacity of 13,100,000 cubic yards of air space. The projected 7 -year build out of the
subject site will generate on average 954 tons of solid waste annually. This represents a
0.47% increase in the annual solid waste received by the Municipal Solid Waste area of
the Regional Landfill, which currently averages 200,000 tons per year. The complete
build out of the Willow Run Community is projected to increase the solid waste received
by the Municipal Solid Waste area of the Regional Landfill by 2.6% annually. The
Applicants' proffer statement provides for curbside trash pickup service in the
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Greenway Engineering • September 1, 2005 • Willow Run Rezoning
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Willow Run Community; therefore, transportation and increased volume impacts at
the citizen convenience centers will be mitigated and tipping fees will be generated
that will create a continuous revenue source for the Regional Landfill by the Willow
Run Community.
H. HISTORICAL SITES AND STRUCTURES
The Frederick County Rural Landmarks Survey identifies three structures on the
359.97± -acre site as the 740 House ( #34 -89), the 750 House ( #34 -90) and the Marshal
House ( #34- 1236), although none of these structures are deemed potentially significant.
Two sites within close proximity are identified as potentially significant, which include
the Stuart Brown House ( #34 -1239) and Homespun ( #34 -180). The Homespun site is
further identified as being potentially eligible for the state and national register of historic
places. Furthermore, the southwestern portion of the 2 nd Winchester Core Battlefield area
is located in the northeastern portion of the subject site.
The Stuart Brown House ( #34 -1239) is located on the Jova Properties, LCC parcel
adjacent to the Route 37 interchange area at Cedar Creek Grade. This structure is
currently utilized as a residential rental property, and is not visible from the Willow Run
Community. The Homespun site ( #34 -180) is located across Cedar Creek Grade from the
southeastern portion of the site. An adaptive reuse of the Homespun site has been
complete, which converted the historic structure into a commercial land use.
Additionally, the Harvest Ridge Residential Community is being developed adjacent to
and south of the Homespun site. The Homespun site has a mature row of evergreens
along its frontage, which adequately screens the structure from Cedar Creek Grade. The
Birchmont Drive intersection at Cedar Creek Grade is designed to align with the
commercial entrance serving the Homespun site; therefore, no additional impacts are
anticipated between the Willow Run Community and the Homespun site. The
Applicants' proffer statement provides for a double row evergreen tree planting screen
between the southern most residential lot that is located across Cedar Creek Grade from
the Homespun site to minimize viewshed impacts.
In August 2004, the Shenandoah Valley Battlefield Foundation Executive Committee
(SVBF) was asked to consider the potential for acquiring the potion of the 2 nd Winchester
Core Battlefield area that is located on the subject site. The SVBF Executive Committee
provided a letter to Greenway Engineering dated August 16, 2004, which stated that there
was not a desire to acquire this area due to the significant amount of lost integrity of the
overall core battlefield area resulting from the development of the Meadow Branch
Community. Therefore, the development of the Willow Run Community will not have a
negative impact to existing historic structures and core battlefield area.
LJ
13
Greenway Engineering • September 1, 2005 • Willow Run Rezoning
Revised November 4, 2005
Revised June 27, 2006
Revised November 18, 2006
• L IMPACT ON COMMUNITY FACILITIES
The Frederick County Capital Facilities Fiscal Impact Model was prepared for the
proposed rezoning of the 359.97± -acre site based on a proffered maximum square
footage of 110,000 square feet of commercial and office land use and 850 residential
units. The results of the Capital Facilities Fiscal Impact Model identify that the build out
of the Willow Run community will create a negative fiscal impact of $7,692.00 for each
residential unit. The Applicants' proffer statement guarantees the development of 20,000
square feet of commercial land use; however, Greenway Engineering prepared a fiscal
impact model run that only provided commercial land use credit for 10,000 square feet of
commercial that was guaranteed in the November 4, 2005 proffer statement.
The Applicants' proffer statement provides a monetary contribution to Frederick County
in the amount of $9,078 for each non -age restricted residential unit to mitigate the fiscal
impacts to public schools, parks and recreation, fire and rescue services, and other
County services. A monetary contribution of $2,000.00 is proffered for each age
restricted residential unit to mitigate the fiscal impacts to all County services, exclusive
of public schools, which are not impacted by this specific population. Furthermore, the
Applicants' proffer statement provides $1,000.00 for each non -age restricted residential
lot to public schools, which will generate between $1.11 - $1.32 million dollars for site
acquisition funding. The Applicants have also proffered an additional $50,000.00 to
• mitigate impacts to the volunteer fire and rescue services. This monetary proffer
provides $25,000.00 to the first responder companies in Frederick County and the City of
Winchester that will provide service to the Willow Run Community. Additionally, the
Applicants' proffer statement provides for community recreational amenities that include
a community center facility that is a minimum of 4,000 square feet in floor area for the
overall community, a community center facility for the age- restricted units that is a
minimum of 2,000 square feet in floor area, public and private bicycle and pedestrian
facilities and neighborhood parks. Therefore, the monetary contributions provided for in
the Applicants' proffer statement, coupled with the recreational amenities adequately
mitigate the community facilities impacts and capital cost needs for the Willow Run
Community.
•
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A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of
Willow Run
Located in:
Frederick County, Virginia
Prepared for:
11
Miller and Smith
Greystone Properties
8401 Greensboro Drive
Suite 300
McLean, VA
22102
Prepared by:
Patton Harris Rust & Associates, pc
End neers. Surveyors, Planners. LmdsccpeArchtects.
pH F'3C4.264
West Virg nia
June 22, 2006
(Revised from the July 2005 submission)
11
• OVERVIEW
Report Summary
Patton Harris Rust & Associates, pc (PHR +A) has prepared this "revised" traffic
study (from July 2005 submission) for Miller and Smith and Greystone Properties to
present the impacts associated with the proposed Willow Run development located
northeast of the Cedar Creek Grade (Route 622)/Route 37 interchange in Frederick County,
Virginia. The purpose of this report is to amend the Phase 1 and Phase 2 analyses using the
revised land use and future roadway network. Phase 1 includes 260 single family- detached
units and 339 single family- attached units that will be built -out by Year 2009. Phase 2 (full
build -out) consists of 425 single family- detached units, 490 single family - attached units,
416 apartment units, 108 elderly housing- attached units, 150,000 square feet of office and
225,000 square feet of retail, which will be built -out by Year 2012. In order to
accommodate the future traffic volumes, PHR +A assumed the following infrastructure
improvements with respect to each Phase. Phase 1 includes: 1) Completion of Jubal Early
Drive Extended from the existing Jubal Early Drive, through the Willow Run development,
to a point east of Merrimans Lane; 2) Completion of Willow Run Drive from the Jubal
Early Drive Extended to a point north of Cedar Creek Grade, 3) Completion of Birch Mont
Drive from the Jubal Early Drive Extended to Cedar Creek Grade, 4) Completion of the
Meadow Branch Avenue Extended to Route 50 and 5) Realignment of Merrimans Lane
north of Breckinridge Lane. Phase 2 assumes the improvements described under Phase 1
as well as the following infrastructure improvements: 1) Completion of the Jubal Early
Drive Extended to Route 37, 2) Completion of a diamond interchange at the intersection of
Merrimans Lane/Route 37 and 3) Realignment of Merrimans Lane north of the new
Merrimans Lane/Route 37 interchange. Figure 1 is provided to illustrate the location of
Willow Run with respect to the surrounding roadway network.
Methodology
The traffic impacts accompanying the Willow Run development were obtained
through a sequence of activities as the narratives that follow document:
• Assessment of background traffic including other planned projects in the area of
impact,
• Calculation of trip generation for Willow Run,
• Distribution and assignment of Willow Run generated trips onto the completed study
area road network,
• Analysis of capacity and level of service using the newest version of the highway
capacity software, HCS -2000, for existing and future conditions.
•
P �� A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 1
0
11
0
No Scale
"T
• Figure 1
Pu
Vicinity Map
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 2
0
IJ
CJ
EXISTING CONDITIONS
11
Patton Harris Rust & Associates, pc (PHR +A) obtained AM and PM peak hour
manual turning movement counts at the intersections of Cedar Creek Grade (Route
622)/Merrimans Lane (Route 621), Cedar Creek Grade/Route 37 interchange ramps, Cedar
Creek Grade/Harvest Drive, US Route 50/Route 37 interchange ramps, US Route
50/Merrimans Lane, Merrimans LaneBreckinridge Lane, Jubal Early Drive/Handley
Avenue and Jubal Early DriveNalley Avenue. Additionally, 24 -hour automatic "tube"
counts were conducted along the Cedar Creek Grade west of Harvest Drive. PHR +A
established the ADT (Average Daily Traffic) along each of the study area roadway links
using an assumed "k" factor (the ratio of PM peak hour traffic volumes to 24 -hour traffic
volumes) of 10 %.
Figure 2 shows the existing ADT and AM/PM peak hour traffic volumes at key
locations throughout the study area. Figure 3 shows the respective existing lane geometry
and AM/PM peak hour levels of service. All traffic count data and HCS -2000 levels of
service worksheets are included in the Appendix section of this report.
P�A + d
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 3
0 0
0
4®194(288)
1e439(1263)
Route 50
p
No Scale
45(43)
X27 4(1067)
51(98) n"1.
Route 50 0i133(159
24(63)
622
(44) 3
*' 39(128)
60 n
�1 98�1i N� o
6
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— 228(603)
Handley
Route 50
Ave
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e � n
621 LQ
y
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•
•
1
44 A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 4
l JS3 ®1 56(265
234 (365)
51(98) n"1.
27 855) Z
24(63)
622
(603)7
@p
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(59) 1081 q a q Route 622
(56917"ti 3
( WW CO
Qti
AM Peak Hour(PM Peak Hour)
Figure 2 Existing ADT and AM/PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes
44 A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 4
•
9
P + L
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 5
•
•
PHASE 1 TRAFFIC ANALYSIS (2009)
E
Phase 1 is analyzed assuming the anticipated future roadway network that includes
the following: 1) Completion of the Jubal Early Drive Extended from the existing Jubal
Early Drive, through the Willow Run development, to a point east of Merrimans Lane; 2)
Completion of Willow Run Drive from the Jubal Early Drive Extended to a point north of
Cedar Creek Grade, 3) Completion of Birch Mont Drive from the Jubal Early Drive
Extended to Cedar Creek Grade, 4) Completion of the Meadow Branch Avenue Extended
to Route 50 and 5) Realignment of Merrimans Lane north of Breckinridge Lane.
2009 BACKGROUND CONDITIONS
hi order to accurately depict future conditions within the study area, PHR +A
utilized A Traffic Impact Analysis of the WWW Property by PHR +A, dated December 5,
2002 to determine the trips associated with not yet completed area developments% Based
upon the 7 Edition of the Institute of Transportation Engineers' (ITE) Trip Generation
Report and the aforementioned traffic study, Tables la and lb are provided to summarize
the calculated trips associated with each of the 2009 "other developments ".
Table la
Background Development: WWW Property
Trin Generation Summary
•
ITE
AM
Peak
Hour
PM
Peak
Hour
Land Use
Amount
ADT
In
I Out
I Total
In
I Out
I Total
Code
750
Office Park
5 acres
350
30
381
34
194
229
2241
813
Discount Superstore
135,000 SF
127
122
248
252
262
514
6030
820
Shopping Center
25,000 SF
42
27
68
120
130
251
2758
Total
519
179
697
406
587
993
11,028
Total Internall
34
34
68
83
83
165
1,898
Total Pass -by
_25
22
47
56
59
115
1318
Total "New Trips"
459
122
582
1 268
445
713
1 7812
A `l l
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 6
\J
9
Table lb
Background Development: Valley Health Systems and Degrange Properties
Trin Generation Summary
ITE
Land Use
Amount
AM Peak Hour
PM Peak Hour
A )T
In
Out
Total
b.
Out
Total
Code
Valley Health Systems Property
150
Warehousing (Distribution Center)
5 acres
63
25
88
26
48
73
383
710
Office
50,000 SF
95
13
108
23
112
135
782
750
Office Park
5 acres
350
30
381
34
194
229
2241
620
Nursing Home
24,000 SF
6
3
9
5
5
10
146
252
Elderly Housing - Attach
80 units
3
4
6
5
3
9
278
Sub -total
517
75
592
93
363
456
3831
Degrange Property
312
Business Hotel
50 rooms
17
12
29
19
12
31
364
760
Research & Development Park
5 acres
70
13
84
9
68
77
398
820
Shopping Center
25,000 SF
43
27
70
121
131
252
2795
912
Drive -in Bank
2,400 SF
17
13
30
55
55
110
694
932
H -T Restaurant
7,600 SF
46
42
88
51
32
83
966
Sub -total
192
108
300
254
298
552
5218
Total
709
182
892
347
661
1,008
9,049
Total Internal
33
33
67
80
80
160
1,415
Total Pass -by
19
8
28
28
38
66
583
Total "New Trips"
657
141
797
240
543
783
7050
In addition to the trips relating to the specific background developments shown in
Tables la and lb, existing traffic volumes were increased along study area roadways using
an historic growth rate of 5% per year (compounded annually) through Year 2009 as
determined in the aforementioned WWW Property traffic study. Figure 4 shows the 2009
background ADT and AM/PM peak hour traffic volumes at key locations throughout the
study area. Figure 5 shows the corresponding 2009 background lane geometry and
AM/PM peak hour levels of service. All HCS -2000 levels of service worksheets are
included in the Appendix section of this report.
P + 1
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 7
0
0
E
0
1 R+A
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 8
0
•
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Phase 1: 2009 Background LOS
S
P "l + i
Signalized [
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LOS = C(D) ® C(D)
C(C) �
Route 50
No Scale
50 Signalized (C)C.*► 4
InlerseRion d► Q ��
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mac` � Denotes Free -Flow Lane
* Intersection etion
Intersection *Denotes critical unsignalized movement
AM Peak Hour(PM Peak Hour)
(2) Denotes new intersections
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 9
0
PHASE 1 TRIP GENERATION
PHR +A determined the number of trips entering and exiting the site using
equations and rates provided in the 7 Edition of the Institute of Transportation Engineers'
(ITE) Trip Generation Report Table 2 was prepared to summarize the trip generation
associated with the Phase 1 Willow Run development.
Table 2
Proposed Development: Willow Run
Phase 1 Trip Generation Summary
•
1]
ITE Land Use Amount
Code
AM Peak Hour
PM Peak Hour
ADT
In
Out
Total
In
Out I
Total
210 Single Family Detached 260 units
230 Single Family Attached 339 units
48
23
144
114
191
137
160
110
94
54
253
164
2,600
2,949
Total
71
257
329
269
148
417
5,549
PHASE 1 TRIP DISTRIBUTION AND TRIP ASSIGNMENT
The distribution of trips was based upon local travel patterns for the road network
surrounding the proposed site. PHR +A utilized the trip distribution percentages shown in
Figure 6 to assign the Phase 1 Willow Run trips (Table 2) throughout the study area
roadway network. Figure 7 shows the respective Phase I development - generated AM/PM
peak hour trips and ADT assignments.
PHASE 12009 BUILD -OUT CONDITIONS
The Phase 1 Willow Run assigned trips (Figure 7) were added to the 2009
background traffic volumes (Figure 4) to obtain 2009 Phase 1 build -out conditions. Figure
8 shows Phase 1 2009 build -out ADT and AM/PM peak hour traffic volumes at key
locations throughout the study area. Figures 9a and 9b show the respective Phase 1 2009
build -out lane geometry and levels of service. All HCS -2000 levels of service worksheets
are included in the Appendix section of this report.
PT_T + L
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 10
0 0
P
Residential
• I 1 1
Figure 6 Phase 1: Trip Distribution Percentages
P "R +
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 11
! !
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11
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Phase 1: Development - Generated Trip Assignments
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 12
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• Figure 8 Phase 1: 2009 Build -out ADT and AM/PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
PpR+A June 22, 2006
Page 13
IL JL
Grade
u
0
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r
v
621
W
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0
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* Denotes critical unsignalized movement
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_
Figu 9 a Phase 1: 2009 Build -out LOS (Proffered Improvements)
PH A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22,2006
Page 14
•
0
0
Signalized
Intersection A LOS = C( C(C)
(C)
�B(C)
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LOS = C(D)
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LOS =B(C) (C)B= w
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Denotes critical unsignalized movement
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-,r L
Figure 9b Phase 1: 2009 Build -out LOS (w/ Suggested Regional Improvements
l A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
H
Page 15
C 7
i
U
PHASE 2 TRAFFIC ANALYSIS (2012)
Phase 2 (full build -out) is analyzed assuming the anticipated future roadway
network improvements described in Phase 1 as well as the following infrastructure
improvements: 1) Completion of the Jubal Early Drive Extended to Route 37, 2)
Completion of a diamond interchange at the intersection of Merrimans Lane/Route 37 and
3) Realignment of Merrimans Lane north of the new Merrimans Lane/Route 37
interchange.
2012 BACKGROUND CONDITIONS
In order to accurately depict future conditions within the study area, PHR+A
utilized A Traffic Impact Analysis of the WW Property by PHR +A, dated December 5,
2002 to determine the trips associated with not yet completed area developments:. Based
upon the 7 th Edition of the Institute of Transportation Engineers' (ITE) Trip Generation
Report and the aforementioned traffic study, Tables 3a and 3b are provided to summarize
the calculated trips associated with each of the 2012 `other developments ".
Table 3a
Background Development: WWW Property
Trin Generntion Summary
r
ITE
Land Use
Amount
AM Peak Hour
PM Peak
Hour
ADT
In
Out
Total
In
Out
Total
Code
750
Office Park
5 acres
350
30
381
34
194
229
2241
813
Discount Superstore
135,000 SF
127
122
248
252
262
514
6030
820
Shopping Center
25,000 SF
42
27
68
120
130
251
2758
Total
519
179
697
406
587
993
11,028
Total Internal
34
34
68
83
83
165
1,898
Total Pass -by
25
22
47
56
59
115
1318
Total "New Trips"
459.
122
582
1 268
445
713
1 7812
P + `
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 16
•
• Table 3b
Background Development: Valley Health Systems and Degrange Properties
Trip Generation Summary
•
•
ITE
AM
Peak Hour
PM
Peak Hour
Code
Land Use
Amount
ADT
In Out Total
In Out Total
Valley Health Systems Property
150
Warehousing (Distribution Center)
5 acres
63
25
88
26
48
73
383
710
Office
50,000 SF
95
13
108
23
112
135
782
750
Office Park
5 acres
350
30
381
34
194
229
2241
620
Nursing Home
24,000 SF
6
3
9
5
5
10
146
252
Elderly Housing - Attach
80 units
3
4
6
5
3
9
278
Sub -total
517
75
591
93
363
456
3831
Degrmge Property
312
Business Hotel
50 rooms
17
12
29
19
12
31
364
760
Research & Development Park
5 acres
70
13
84
9
68
77
398
820
Shopping Center
25,000 SF
43
27
70
121
131
252
2795
912
Drive -in Bank
2,400 SF
17
13
30
55
55
110
694
932
H -T Restaurant
7,600 SF
46
42
88
51
32
83
966
Sub -mtal
192
108
300
254
298
552
5218
Total
709
182
892
347
661
1,008
9,049
Total Internal
33
33
67
80
80
160
1,415
Total Pass -by
19
8
28
28
38
66
583
Total "New Trips"
657
141
797
240
543
783
7050
In addition to the trips relating to the specific background developments shown in
Tables 3a and 3b, existing traffic volumes were increased along study area roadways using
an historic growth rate of 5% per year (compounded annually) through Year 2012 as
determined in the aforementioned WWW Property traffic study. Figure 10 shows the
2012 background ADT and AM/PM peak hour traffic volumes at key locations throughout
the study area. Figures 11a and 11b show the corresponding 2012 background lane
geometry and AM/PM peak hour levels of service. HCS -2000 levels of service worksheets
are provided in the Appendix section of this report.
P � A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 17
0
8r,
�
Y q�
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2 New Intersection Q Round -about
I t
F 10 Pha 2: 2012 Background ADT and AM/PM Peak Hour Traffic V
P "R + i
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 19
!o
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F 10 Pha 2: 2012 Background ADT and AM/PM Peak Hour Traffic V
P "R + i
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 19
0 0
9
•
11
No Scale
4
AZ
B(B)
1
signalized
Intersection
L = B(B)
ltovte 50
1
t
t
Signaliz
Intersection
LOS = B(B)
ztch•_ a e� � B�B� ✓ p �� A _
C 'i a
� y dr
Round -abou
LOS = A(A)
R
u
Round -about
Q�
Pie
LOS = A(B) At 621
;
Auba J
FartyD
%� Pkra
SITE
t
e
37;
a7
J�
Ctec
Ce Cradc 622
Denotes new intersections
* Denotes critical unsignalized movement
AM Peak Hour(PM Peak Hour)
T T A
1"Hl�*1 t'
Figure 11a
Phase 2: 2012 Background LOS (Proffered Improvements)
PT-4R it i
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 19
C
•
• Signalized Signalized [�
Intersection V Intersection 4e
LOS =D(C) C «m LOS =C(D) 4-- Cm)
�� C(C)
�
., Route 50
4 Route 50 Signalized (D)C .01,
D)C� 4 No Scale
(D)D'� Intersection ,G
LOS B(C) �� 4
y
G �B(C)
t 621
ute 50 .(B)B
9J
(011 r� Unsignalized
,+, J Intersection F
Signalized "Suggested ` Improvement"
Intersection Improvement'• AQ Signalized EB -1 Right
�s Si nalization A ��(( -� Intersection HB -1Thru
LOS = B(C) 4— A(C) g Brae(- ;A(B)r LOS = C(C) SB - 1 Right
Route 62
(C)B 37
Unsignal¢ed .8 > V/ y
Intersection M 0 a
G t
rk Unsignalized Q
Intersection Q (C )C �]• 1 jj
1 �, t � `• p(B)* � G
- 47B(B) _ 621 ✓ubafEar( �Exrd Signalized
• Cdayss Route 622 intersection
LOS =C -
4
(C)B Signalized Gs-
Intersection SIT -j'
�H
LOS B(C) S il9'i 3 C(
� D)
"Suggested ib'x ( bJC ` � l f®
ISi rovement"
Signali Rig t
S ��� 1° Q• Sit - 1 Right
jQ C �� Signalized
(C
B(Q* CAade 622 �-� )Cr\� Intersection
�G (B)B G Ij LOS =C(D)
� G�
Unsignalized < +(B)A Cedar Creek G
Intersection C " Grade G am- q
r j
Intersection n rd
Signalized
t Intersection IA
Los = B(C) ( C)B �► °�� }
'Sug `
Route 622 .(3)A4 p Route 622 Improvement'• it
Unsignelized WB - I Thru
Unsignalized J� G
•
Intersection 4 Denotes Free -Flow Lane
�Qt �`
Intersection
m * Denotes critical unsignalized movement
AM Peak Hour(PM Peak Hour) Q Denotes new intersections
• Figure 11b Phase 2: 2012 Background LOS (w/ Suggested Regional Improvements)
�� A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 20
C
C�
PHASE 2 TRIP GENERATION
•
PHR +A determined the number of trips entering and exiting the site using
equations and rates provided in the 7 Edition of the Institute of Transportation Engineers'
(ITE) Trip Generation Report Table 4 was prepared to summarize the trip generation
associated with Phase 2 (complete build -out) of the Willow Run development.
Table 4
Proposed Development: Willow Run
Phase 2 Trin Generation Summary
•
n
LJ
ITT
AM Peak Hour
PM Peak Hour
ADT
Land Use Amount
Code
In
Out
Total
In
Out
Total
210 Single Family Detached 425 units
77
230
307
248
146
394
4,250
220 Apartment 416 units
42
166
208
160
86
246
2,496
230 Single Family Attached 490 units
31
153
184
148
73
221
4,263
252 Elderly Housing - Attached 108
4
5
9
7
5
12
376
710 Office 150,000 SF
228
31
259
42
205
247
1823
820 Retail 225,000 SF
155
99
255
513
556
1069
11504
Total
537
684
1,221
1,119
1,071
2,190
24,712
TRIP DISTRIBUTION AND TRIP ASSIGNMENT
The distribution of trips was based upon local travel patterns for the road network
surrounding the proposed site. PHR +A utilized the trip distribution percentages shown in
Figure 12 to assign the Phase 2 Willow Run trips (Table 4) throughout the study area.
Figure 13 shows the corresponding development - generated AM/PM peak hour trips and
ADT assignments.
2012 BUILD -OUT CONDITIONS
The Willow Run assigned trips (Figure 13) were then added to the 2012
background volumes (Figure 10) to obtain 2012 build -out conditions. Figure 14 shows
2012 Phase 2 build -out ADT and AM/PM peak hour traffic volumes at key locations
throughout the study area. Figures 15a and 15b show the corresponding 2012 build -out
lane geometry and AM/PM peak hour levels of service. All HCS -2000 levels of service
worksheets are included in the Appendix section of this report.
44 RA
JL IL
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 21
0 0
Ll
��
1 fl tL
•
FFigure 12
Phase 2: Trip Distribution Percentages
PMl + i
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 22
9 0
0
1� k (2 x+ : 4�
Jj
X31(113)
(621
L
• ���� 6 I nded ����
SITE «/!
3¢ r i
(28)19 •� xRoute 37F � � ,3 �y�� saj�� >a
37 WN
Kam
4m28(15) - 622 q�w� .. (j6)z *Our 2�
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( �� I / � / .:;::Ubai c•� ,- '�'e3��: � i
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• �N�rtlivn 1Z
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~
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xw�`i ��: %¢ ' . o,r
Route 622 �'��:; � �' �,,�- �$ � (92)<11�"� ('rude
Ir 2tins�
� AM Peak Hour(PM Peak Hour)
New Intersection Round -about
Development- Generated Trip Assignments
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 23
• •
b 0
1287(425)
833(1779)
~ 2 r. ° y F.1155(1823) ( Route 50
2(131) 14 /"343(908) (655)1292 �...r ► No Scale
h� p Route 50 b °
(982)942, ,y N `
66(64)
1 � 6
of o o 34(1695)
sa -.rs,S7 f'22113.'i/n 10�.e`
.0
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a
a l
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al
.. uPf' 37
`� b ; s"' � {73) V ��� '� �S 19Z�)
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l�85(205) 622 l'd�•�� r ( ►
x87(134 C
(4718 ® ub q ti
Qo4)s6�
75(145)
532(910) �sl Hr352(1196)
4..77(118) � • ` o�� (52)75 eder Creek
✓�� ,x30(35)) (803616 3�Route 622 , =$+� (856)968°
"
(115)167 �...� Rou[e 622 -- •'
(59)58 -- %, o q� AM Peak Hour(PM Peak Hour)
y f New Intersection 0 Round -about
• PHA
Figure 14: 2012 Build -out ADT and AM/PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
PfAA June 22, 2006
Page 24
IL IL
0
C�
C]
P
Figure 15a
2012 Build -out LOS (Proffered Improvements)
Pu
J IL
Q Denotes new intersections
* Denotes critical unsignalized mo
AM Peak Hour(PM Peak Hour)
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 25
0
•
•
Unsignalzed
2 C' F Inters
ection
AM Peak Hour(F
0
Signalized
Intersection Q
LOS = IXC)
(D)D
Signalized 'Suggested
Intersection Improvement'
LOS =B(C) A(C)
Signalizalion
Route 622
(C)B Vj
V
J G`
4p B(C
r -0"' r
Route 622
B
777111
Intersection
Intersection
�
LOS = B(C)
I Improvement"
Signalization
SB -1 Right
Unsignalized
Intersection
r
' 7A(A)
Route 622
Unsignalized
Intersection
-P R+A
Figure 15b
C(C)
C
Lms
2012 Build -out LOS (w/ Suggested Regional Improvements)
�Ljl �l i
9
Signalized
Intersection
LOS = C(D)
C(D)
Signalized
Intersection \®
LOS = B(C)
621
No Scale
(C)B 4"4 G
'
r -0"' r
Unsignalized
Intersection "S
@�
Improvemen
t
C
Signalized
EB • 1 Right
`$re 9(E♦
Inlerxction
NB -1Thru
eh_ a )
9 LOS = C(C)
SB -1 Right
eL
rsienalUed
tp_
Intersection
x
Unsignnlized d
Intersection d
it
��
txrd Signalized
lntersection
LOS = C(E) w,
v
C(E)
C(E)
C Signalized
J 1 Intersection
✓LV CJ Ir
LOS =C(E)
1 e �
" 4 Grade
Creek G
Grade ♦ V`
Unsignalized d ✓��� �\
Intentersection Signalized B(C
Peak
Intersection ft♦ )
LOS = R(C) (011 �► >
"Suggested ���
Improvement" � of
R'B • 1 Thru J
r � Denotes Free -Flow Lane
* Denotes critical unsignalized moveme
(D Denotes new intersections
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Rum
June 22, 2006
Page 26
`
txrd Signalized
lntersection
LOS = C(E) w,
v
C(E)
C(E)
C Signalized
J 1 Intersection
✓LV CJ Ir
LOS =C(E)
1 e �
" 4 Grade
Creek G
Grade ♦ V`
Unsignalized d ✓��� �\
Intentersection Signalized B(C
Peak
Intersection ft♦ )
LOS = R(C) (011 �► >
"Suggested ���
Improvement" � of
R'B • 1 Thru J
r � Denotes Free -Flow Lane
* Denotes critical unsignalized moveme
(D Denotes new intersections
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Rum
June 22, 2006
Page 26
0
0
CONCLUSIONS
0
The traffic impacts associated with the proposed Willow Run development are
acceptable and manageable. For Phase 1 and Phase 2, PHR +A has provided the following
conclusions as well as "suggested improvement measures" that are required to achieve
levels of service "C" or better per the Frederick County minimum standards. For
unsignalized intersections with levels of service "D ", traffic signalization is not suggested
since traffic signalization warrants would not be satisfied.
2009 Phase 1 - As shown in Figure 9b, all existing intersections except Jubal Early
Drive/Valley Avenue, Cedar Creek Grade/Route 11, Cedar Creek Grade/Route 37
interchange ramps and Cedar Creek Grade/Harvest Drive, will maintain levels of
service "C" or better during 2009 Phase 1 build -out conditions (Improvements are
shown at the intersection of Route 50/Route 37 interchange ramps since upgrades
are currently underway). PHR +A has provided Figure 9a to show the "Proffered
improvements ". "Suggested regional improvements" are shown in Figure 9b to
maintain acceptable levels of service during 2009 build -out conditions.
2012 Phase 2 - As shown in Figure 15b, all existing intersections except Jubal
• Early Drive/Valley Avenue, Cedar Creek Grade/Route 11, Cedar Creek
Grade/Route 37 interchange ramps, Cedar Creek Grade/Merrimans Lane and Cedar
Creek Grade/Harvest Drive, will maintain levels of service "C" or better during
Phase 2 2012 build -out conditions (Improvements are shown at the intersection of
Route 50/Route 37 interchange ramps since upgrades are currently underway).
Each of the aforementioned intersections, except the intersection of Cedar Creek
Grade/Merrimans Lane, will maintain unacceptable levels of service during
background and build -out conditions. PHR +A has provided Figure 11a and Figure
15a to show the "Proffered improvements" and Figure l lb and Figure 15b to show
the "suggested regional improvements" for 2012 background and build -out
conditions, respectively.
•
A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
R_"+ June 22,
Page e 27 27
JL IL
0 0
0 Willow Run Traditional Neighborhood Design Transportation Enhancements
The Applicants' proffer statement has been designed to address the transportation impacts
associated with the build -out of the residential and commercial land uses for the Willow
Run Traditional Neighborhood Design Community, and to assist in the mitigation of
several regional transportation issues that are a result of other developments and projected
traffic volume increases. These proffered transportation improvements include the
following:
Proffered Transportation Improvement Program
•
Completely fund and construct the four -lane divided section of Jubal Early Drive
from the current terminus in City of Winchester to the intersection serving the
eastern neighborhood commercial land bays prior to issuance of the 300"'
residential building permit.
•
Completely fund and construct the four -lane divided section of Jubal Early Drive
from the eastern neighborhood commercial land bays to the first commercial
center intersection prior to issuance of 450 residential building permit.
•
Completely fund and construct the four -lane divided section of Jubal Early Drive
from the terminus of the first commercial center intersection to the Route 37
northbound on and off ramps prior to issuance of 600 residential building
permit.
•
•
Completely fund and construct the new Route 37/Jubal Early Drive interchange
northbound and southbound on and off ramps using the existing bridge structure
prior to the issuance of the 600 residential building permit.
•
Completely fund and construct the realignment of approximately 1,000 feet of the
two -lane section of Merriman's Lane (Route 621) to the north of Jubal Early
Drive to create a "T" intersection prior to issuance of 800 residential building
permit.
•
Completely fund and construct a roundabout at the Route 37 southbound on and
off ramps, or execute a signalization agreement with VDOT to fully fund traffic
signalization at the Route 37 southbound on and off ramps.
•
Execute a signalization agreement with VDOT to fully fund traffic signalization
at the intersection of Jubal Early Drive and Meadow Branch Avenue.
•
Execute a signalization agreement with VDOT to fully fund traffic signalization
at the intersection of Jubal Early Drive and the Merriman's Lane north
realignment at the commercial center intersection.
•
Execute a signalization agreement with VDOT to fully fund traffic signalization
at the intersection of Cedar Creek Grade and Birchmont Drive.
•
Completely fund and construct right and left turn lanes at the intersection of
Cedar Creek Grade and Birchmont Drive.
•
Allow the developer construction dollars to be utilized as matching funds
unconditionally by Frederick County for additional transportation system
improvements.
•
P �� A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run
June 22, 2006
Page 29