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HomeMy WebLinkAbout21-06 Impact Analysis0 IMPACT ANALYSIS STATEMENT WILLOW RUN REZONING Shawnee Magisterial District Frederick County, Virginia Tax Parcels 53- ((A)) -90; 53- ((A)) -91; 53- ((A)) -92; 53- ((A)) -92A; 53- ((A)) -92B; 53- ((A)) -94; 53- ((3)) -A & 63- ((A)) -2A 0 359.97± Acres September 1, 2005 Revised November 4, 2005 Revised June 27, 2006 Revised November 18, 2006 Current Owners: 740 LLC 750 LLC Willow Grove L.C. Greystone Properties, LLC Miller and Smith at Willow Run, L.L.C. Contact Person: Evan Wyatt, AICP Greenway Engineering 151 Windy Hill Lane • Winchester, VA 22602 540 - 662 -4185 Greenway Engineering • September I, 2005 • Willow Run Rezoning Revised November 4, 2005 Revised June 27, 2006 Revised November 18, 2006 • WILLOW RUN REZONING INTRODUCTION This report has been prepared for the purpose of assessing the impact on Fredrick County by the proffered rezoning of eight contiguous parcels comprising 359.97± acres, owned by 740 LLC, 750 LLC, Willow Grove L.C., Greystone Properties, LLC, and Miller and Smith at Willow Run, L.L.C. The subject properties are located adjacent to and east of Route 37, adjacent to and east of Merriman's Lane (Route 621), adjacent to and south of the Winchester and Western Railroad, north of Cedar Creek Grade, and adjacent to and south and west of the City of Winchester Corporate Limits. The current zoning of the parcels comprising the 359.97± -acre tract is RA, Rural Areas District. The property owners propose to rezone these parcels to create a 359.97± acre Traditional Neighborhood Development that will be zoned R4, Residential Planned Community District. Please refer to the proffered Willow Run Master Development Plan. Basic information • Location: East of Route 37 and Merriman's Lane (Route 621), North of Cedar Creek Grade (Route 622), South and West of the City of Winchester Corporate Limits Magisterial District: Shawnee Property ID Numbers: 53- ((A)) -90, 53- ((A)) -91, 53- ((A)) -92, 53- ((A))- 92A, 53- ((A)) -92B, 53- ((A)) -94, 53- ((3)) -A, 63- ((A))-2A Current Zoning: RA, Rural Areas District Current Use: Agricultural and Residential Uses Proposed Use: Traditional Neighborhood Development Proposed Zoning: R4, Residential Planned Community District Total rezoning area: 359.97± -acres • 2 Greenway Engineering • COMPREHENSIVE PLAN September I, 2005 Revised November 4, 2005 Revised June 27, 2006 Revised November 18, 2006 Willow Run Rezoning The parcels comprising the subject site are located within the study area boundary of the Western Jubal Early Land Use Plan. The Board of Supervisors adopted the policies guiding future land use development within the Western Jubal Early Land Use Plan on February 11, 2004. These policies recommend that the predominant land use should be urban and suburban residential use with areas of mixed residential and commercial land use along the planned route of the Jubal Early Drive extension. A Master Development Plan has been prepared and proffered for Willow Run, which depicts the Traditional Neighborhood Design (TND) elements of the site that will be developed as residential and commercial land use. Additionally, the Applicants' proffer statement provides for a residential unit matrix table that provides for a minimum and maximum percentage of age- restricted, single - family attached, single - family detached and multifamily housing product types. The 359.97± -acre site is located within the Urban Development Area (UDA) and the Sewer and Water Service Area (SWSA); therefore, expansion of the UDA and SWSA beyond the existing property boundaries is not required by this application. • A. SUITABILITY OF THE SITE Access The subject site is accessible from Cedar Creek Grade (Route 622), Merriman's Lane (Route 621), and through the extension of Jubal Early Drive and Cidermill Lane, which currently terminate in the City of Winchester. The extension of Sterling Drive is not proposed due to additional impacts to the wetland areas that have been identified by the Corp of Engineers on the south side of Jubal Early Drive extended. Connections to, and extensions of all other identified roads will provide safe and efficient access to Willow Run. Cidermill Lane is proffered to be constructed and barricaded until the new interchange ramps at Route 37 and Jubal Early Drive are open to the public. The Western Jubal Early Drive Land Use Plan (WJELUP) identifies the extension of Jubal Early Drive in an east -to -west direction through the limits of the subject site and connecting to Route 37 West at a new interchange. Furthermore, this plan identifies a new major collector road, which connects Cedar Creek Grade to Jubal Early Drive in a north -tG -south direction. The need for intermodal access is also identified in the land use plan, which recommends the expansion of the Green Circle bicycle and pedestrian facility into the County with linkages to the west and south. The Applicants' proffer statement has been designed to implement the transportation • network identified in the Comprehensive Policy Plan. The transportation proffers allow for traffic from the development to access Jubal Early Drive and Cedar Creek Grade 3 Greenway Engineering • September 1, 2005 • Willow Run Rezoning Revised November 4, 2005 Revised June 27, 2006 Revised November 18, 2006 • during the initial development phases of Willow Run, while access to Route 37 is proffered to occur through the development of new interchange ramps prior to the 600` residential permit (less than 45% of the total development program). The Applicants' proffer statement also provides for the continuation of the Green Circle along the south side of Jubal Early Drive, with an additional bicycle and pedestrian system traveling south connecting to Sandyridge Boulevard to the southern limits of Willow Run. Flood 1p ains The subject site is located on the FEMA NFIP Map #510063- 0115 -B. The FEMA NFIP Map identifies floodplain areas associated with Abrams Creek from the north side of Northwestern Pike (Route 50 West) to the west side of Merriman's Lane (Route 621). The limits of the study end at this point; however, it is reasonable to expect the floodplain areas identified as Zone A to continue through the northern portion of the subject site along Abrams Creek to the City of Winchester Corporate Limits. The Applicants have prepared a Phase I Environmental Assessment Report and a Wetlands Delineation Report for the subject properties, a copy of which has been provided to the Planning Department. The Applicants' proffered Master Development Plan delineates the location of the floodplain areas on the subject site that are based on the results of the detailed CLOMR study associated with the extension of Jubal Early Drive. The Applicants submitted the • CLOMR study to FEMA and have received approval to ensure that there are no adverse impacts to the Abram's Creek floodway resulting from the extension of Jubal Early Drive. Protected and disturbed floodplain areas are identified on the proffered Master Development Plan, of which, the impacted areas are only associated with the extension of Jubal Early Drive. Wetlands The National Wetlands Inventory Map identifies two areas of wetlands along the northern and eastern portions of the 359.97± -acre site. The Applicants have prepared a Wetlands Delineation Report for the subject properties, a copy of which has been provided to the County Engineer and the Planning Department. The U.S. Army Corp of Engineers has issued a Jurisdictional Determination Letter establishing the location of all wetland areas on -site, and a wetlands permit has been approved by the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers and the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality based on an approved wetlands mitigation plan prepared by the Applicants. Protected and disturbed wetland areas are identified on the proffered Master Development Plan, of which, the impacted areas are only associated with the extension of Jubal Early Drive. 0 11 Greenway Engineering 0 • Steep Slopes September I, 2005 Revised November 4, 2005 Revised June 27, 2006 Revised November 18, 2006 0 Willow Run Rezoning Minor areas of steep slope exist on the 359.97± -acre site, of which, a small area is located adjacent to the wetland by Abram's Creek, a small area is located by the major karst feature in the southeastern portion of the site, and a small area is located adjacent to Cedar Creek Grade. Disturbance of the small area of steep slope adjacent to Cedar Creek Grade will occur to implement the road improvements that are proffered by the Applicants along the Cedar Creek Grade frontage. These areas of disturbance are identified on the proffered Master Development Plan for Willow Run to ensure compliance with County Ordinance requirements. Mature Woodlands Areas of mature deciduous trees exist along the Abram's Creek corridor, as well as in the western and central portions of the 359.97± -acre site. It is anticipated that these areas will be impacted by the future development of road systems, utility infrastructure, residential land bays, and the commercial center area; however, the subsequent Subdivision Design Plans will attempt to provide for linear tree save areas of mature trees once grading limits are determined. Furthermore, disturbed mature tree areas and existing open areas will be replanted with new trees to meet the requirements of the • County Ordinance that was adopted by the Board of Supervisors in April 2003. Soil T3Tes The Soil Survey of Fredrick County published by the USDA Soil Conservation Service was consulted to determine soil types contained in this tract. The subject site is located on map sheet number 24 & 30, and contains the following soil types: 5B -Carbo Silt Loam: 2 -7% slope 14B- Frederick - Poplimento Loam: 2 -7% slope 14C- Frederick - Poplimento Loam: 7 -15% slope 14D- Frederick - Poplimento Loam: 15 -25% slope 16C- Frederick - Poplimento Loam — Very Rocky: 7 -15% slope 16D- Frederick - Poplimento Loam — Very Rocky: 15 -25% slope 17C- Frederick - Poplimento Rock Outcrop Complex: 2 -15% slope 17E- Frederick - Poplimento Rock Outcrop Complex: 15 -45% slope 29- Massanetta Loam Table 5 on page 123 of the Soil Survey of Frederick County identifies the 513-Carbo Silt Loam, the 14B- Frederick - Poplimento and 29- Massanetta Loam as prime farmland soils. • Frederick - Poplimento loams comprise the majority of the subject site, which possess moderate shrink -swell potential. A band of Carbo Silt loam follows the western portion 5 Greenway Engineering September I, 2005 Willow Run Rezoning Revised November 4, 2005 Revised June 27, 2006 Revised November 18, 2006 • of the subject site, which possesses a high shrink -swell potential, while Massanetta loam is located within the defined flood plain and wetland areas. These soil types are consistent with the soil types found in the neighboring Meadow Branch and Morlyn Hills communities; therefore, community development activities can be supported by the soil conditions on the subject site. Development within the Massanetta loam soils will be limited to the extension of Jubal Early Drive. The Applicants will conduct geotechnical analysis throughout the development of Willow Run for road construction, utility installation, and the development of residential and commercial land bays. Geotechnical analysis will be provided to the project engineer which will be taken into consideration during the design of the project. B. SURROUNDING PROPERTIES Adjoining Property Zoning and Present Use: North: Zoned Planned Unit Development (PUD - LR) Use: Residential South: Zoned Residential Performance (RP) Use: Residential • Zoned Rural Areas (RA) Use: Commercial & Agricultural East: Zoned Planned Unit Development (PUD -HR) Use: Residential West: Zoned Residential Performance (RP) Use: Residential Zoned Rural Areas (RA) Use: Residential & Golf Course C. TRANSPORTATION The subject site is accessible from Cedar Creek Grade (Route 622), Merriman's Lane (Route 621), and through the extension of Jubal Early Drive and Cidermill Lane, which currently terminate in the City of Winchester. The Western Jubal Early Drive Land Use Plan identifies the extension of Jubal Early Drive in an east -to -west direction through the limits of the subject site and connecting to Route 37 at a new interchange. Furthermore, this plan identifies a new major collector road, which connects Cedar Creek Grade to Jubal Early Drive in a north -to -south direction. The need for intermodal access is also identified in the land use plan, which recommends the expansion of the Green Circle bicycle and pedestrian facility into the County with linkages to the west and south. • A traffic impact analysis (TIA) has been prepared for the Willow Run Community by Patton Harris Rust & Associates, pc dated June 22, 2006 (revised from the April 18, IN Greenway Engineering • September 1, 2005 Willow Run Rezoning Revised November 4, 2005 Revised June 27, 2006 Revised November 18, 2006 • 2006, the July 12, 2005 and November 2004 submissions), which is included as a component of the Impact Analysis Statement. The TIA assumes the total build out of 1,439 residential units and 375,000 square feet of commercial retail and office land use by year 2012 as a two -phase plan. The first transportation phase projects the impacts associated with the development of 599 residential units, and the second transportation phase projects the impacts associated the total build out of the Willow Run Community that includes 1,439 residential units and 375,000 square -feet of commercial retail and office land use. The TIA provides for a Level of Service (LOS) analysis for AM and PM peak hour traffic volumes, as well as Average Daily Trip (ADT) volumes for existing, background and build -out conditions for each transportation phase. The TIA studies all critical intersections in the Willow Run Community and within close proximity of the Willow Run Traditional Neighborhood Development, the existing Route 37 interchange .ramps at Route 50 West and Cedar Creek Grade for the regional transportation system, and the continuation of Jubal Early Drive from its terminus in the City of Winchester to Merriman's Lane. The Phase 1 and Phase 2 Build -Out Lane Geometry and Level of Service (LOS) for AM and PM Peak Hour traffic volumes identify the projected traffic impacts for all critical intersections within the project and within close proximity of the Willow Run Traditional Neighborhood Development, the new Route 37 interchange ramps at Jubal Early Drive and Merriman's Lane and the existing Route 37 interchange ramps at Route 50 West and . Cedar Creek Grade for the regional transportation system, and the continuation of Jubal Early Drive from its terminus in the City of Winchester to Route 37 at Merriman's Lane. The TIA demonstrates that the build -out of the first transportation phase (599 residential units) can occur while achieving acceptable levels of service on all internal streets and at the intersection of Jubal Early Drive and Meadow Branch Avenue, as well as at the intersection of Cedar Creek Grade and Birchmont Drive. The TIA further demonstrates that the transportation impacts associated with the build -out of the Willow Run Traditional Neighborhood Development, coupled with the projected background traffic impacts, are acceptable at the signalized Jubal Early Drive intersection with Meadow Branch Avenue, at the signalized Jubal Early Drive intersection with Merriman's Lane, at the signalized intersection of Birchmont Drive and Cedar Creek Grade, and at the new Route 37 interchange roundabout ramps. The TIA demonstrates that deficient levels of service exist at the unsignalized Route 37 ramps at Cedar Creek Grade, at the Route 37 ramps at Route 50 West, at the intersection of Jubal Early Drive and Valley Avenue, and at the intersection of Valley Avenue and Cedar Creek Grade. However, the TIA also demonstrates that build -out of the Willow Run Traditional Neighborhood Development does not further reduce the levels of service at the Route 37 interchanges at Cedar Creek Grade and Route 50 West more than the impacts associated with background traffic. Additionally, the build -out of the Willow Run Traditional Neighborhood Development slightly reduces the levels of service at the Jubal Early Drive and Valley Avenue intersection during AM peak hour and at the Valley Avenue and Cedar Creek Grade intersection during PM peak hour. r� U 7 Greenway Engineering • September I, 2005 Willow Run Rezoning Revised November 4, 2005 Revised June 27, 2006 Revised November 18, 2006 • The Applicants' proffer statement has been designed to address the transportation impacts associated with the build -out of the Willow Run Traditional Neighborhood Development, and to assist in the mitigation of several regional transportation issues that are a result of other development projects and projected traffic volume increases. These proffered transportation improvements include the following: Proffered Transportation Improvement Program • Completely fund and construct the four -lane divided section of Jubal Early Drive from the current terminus in City of Winchester to the first intersection west of the eastern neighborhood commercial land bays prior to issuance of the 300 residential building permit. • Completely fund and construct the four -lane divided section of Jubal Early Drive from the first intersection west of the eastern neighborhood commercial land bays to the first commercial center intersection prior to issuance of 450 residential building permit. • Completely fund and construct the four -lane divided section of Jubal Early Drive from the terminus of the first commercial center intersection to the Route 37 northbound on and off ramps prior to issuance of 600 residential building permit. • . Completely fund and construct the new Route 37 /Jubal Early Drive interchange northbound and southbound on and off ramps using the existing bridge structure prior to the issuance of the 600 residential building permit. • Allow the developer construction dollars for the new Route 37 /Jubal Early Drive interchange northbound and southbound on and off ramps to be utilized as matching funds unconditionally by Frederick County for additional transportation system improvements. • Completely fund and construct the realignment of approximately 1,000 feet of the two -lane section of Merriman's Lane (Route 621) to the north of Jubal Early Drive to create a "T" intersection prior to issuance of 600 residential building permit. • Complete Birchmont Drive between Juba] Early Drive and Cedar Creek Grade by the issuance of the 200 residential building permit. • Execute a signalization agreement with VDOT to fully fund traffic signalization at the intersection of Jubal Early Drive and Meadow Branch Avenue. • Execute a signalization agreement with VDOT to fully fund traffic signalization at the intersection of Jubal Early Drive and the Merriman's Lane north realignment at the commercial center intersection. • Execute a signalization agreement with VDOT to fully fund traffic signalization at the intersection of Cedar Creek Grade and Birchmont Drive. • Completely fund and construct right and left turn lane improvements at the • intersection of Cedar Creek Grade and Birchmont Drive. 3 .p. n S� l Greenway Engineering 0 September 1, 2005 Willow Run Rezoning Revised November 4, 2005 Revised lane 27, 2006 Revised November 18, 2006 • Provide $100,000 to the City of Winchester for off -site transportation improvements. The Applicants' proffered transportation program will mitigate the impacts associated with the development of the Willow Run Community and will improve existing and future conditions associated with other off -site regional transportation matters. The complete funding and development of Jubal Early Drive and the new Route 37 interchange ramps will occur during the construction of the Willow Run Traditional Neighborhood Development, which offers solutions to two significant regional transportation elements identified in the Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) 2030 Transportation Plan for the benefit of both County and City residents. D. SEWAGE CONVEYANCE AND TREATMENT The 359.97± -acre site is located within the Urban Development Area (UDA) and the Sewer and Water Service Area (SWSA) boundaries. In May 2004, the Frederick County Sanitation Authority Board voted to provide public sewer service to the Willow Run • Community. This determination requires the Frederick County Sanitation Authority (FCSA) to develop the infrastructure system necessary to service the Willow Run Community. The FCSA has undertaken an infrastructure project for the design and construction of a new sewer force main that will connect to the Willow Run Community at the Birchmont Drive intersection at Cedar Creek Grade and the 15" Hogue Run Sewer Interceptor, which directs flows to the Parkins Mill Wastewater Treatment Facility. The design of the new sewer force main will provide capacity that is adequate to accommodate the residential and commercial land uses associated with the Willow Run Community and additional development within the area. The Applicants will provide for a new sewer pump station that will be located in the northeastern portion of the property adjacent to the Abram's Creek wetlands. The design of the new sewer pump station will provide capacity that is adequate to accommodate the residential and commercial land uses associated with the Willow Run Community, and will be expandable to serve additional development within the area. The Applicants will also provide for a new sewer force main that connects the new sewer pump station to the FCSA new sewer force main at Cedar Creek Grade. The new sewer force main will be sized as a minimum 12 -inch main to accommodate the residential and commercial land uses associated with the Willow Run Community and additional development within the area. The on -site sewer infrastructure required to convey effluent to the Parkins Mill Wastewater Treatment Facility will be developed by the Applicants to standards acceptable to the FCSA for their future operation and maintenance. L9 Greenway Engineering • September 1, 2005 • Willow Run Rezoning Revised November 4, 2005 Revised June 27, 2006 Revised November 18, 2006 • The impact of rezoning the 359.97± -acre site can be based on comparable discharge patterns of 500 gallons - per -day (GPD) per acre for commercial land use and 225 GPD for residential land use. The figures below represent the impact that the total build out of the 36 -acre commercial areas of commercial and office land use and the proffered 1,390 residential units will have on the sewage conveyance and treatment systems. Q = 500 GPD per acre Q = 500 GPD x 36 acres of commercial and office land use Q = 18,000 GPD projected at total commercial build out Q = 225 GPD per household Q = 225 GPD x 1,390 residential units Q = 312,750 GPD projected at total residential build out TOTAL Q = 330,750 GPD at total project build out The proposed rezoning is projected to increase flows to the Parkins Mill Wastewater Treatment Facility by 330,750 GPD at total build out. The Applicants have proffered to develop the Willow Run Community through a phased permitting plan that limits the . number of residential building permits that can be obtained on an annual basis. This phased permitting plan will ensure that the build -out of the Willow Run Community cannot occur until calendar year 2012 at the earliest. The Frederick County Sanitation Authority Board has approved a plan to expand the capacity of the Parkins Mill Wastewater Treatment Facility to 5 million gallons per day (MGD). The 5 MGD expansion of the Parkins Mill Wastewater Treatment Facility is projected to be complete in 2009, which will occur 3 years prior to the earliest possible build -out of the Willow Run Community based on the proffered phased permitting plan. Adequate capacity for sewage conveyance and treatment will be available throughout the development of the Willow Run Community as a result of the infrastructure improvements provided by the Applicants and the FCSA. E. WATER SUPPLY The 359.97± -acre site is located within the Urban Development Area (UDA) and the Sewer and Water Service Area (SWSA) boundaries. In May 2004, the Frederick County Sanitation Authority Board voted to provide public water service to the Willow Run Community. This determination requires the Frederick County Sanitation Authority (FCSA) to develop the infrastructure system necessary to service the Willow Run . Community. 10 Greenway Engineering • September 1, 2005 • Willow Run Rezoning Revised November 4, 2005 Revised June 27, 2006 Revised November 18, 2006 The FCSA will provide a water transmission line that will follow Route 37 and adjoin the Willow Run Community. This water transmission line will create a loop system that ties together the water systems to the north between the Sunnyside Community and to the south in the Apple Valley Road and Shady Elm Road area. This loop will allow for water service to be provided from both the Stephens City quarry system from the James H. Diehl Water Filtration Plant and the Clearbrook quarry system from the North Water Filtration Plant. These systems currently provide 6.0 MGD and can be increased to 10 MGD. The on -site water infrastructure required to convey potable water to the proposed residential and commercial land uses in the Willow Run Community will be developed by the applicants to standards acceptable to the FCSA for future operation and maintenance. The impact of rezoning the 359.97± -acre site can be based on comparable water usage of 1,000 GPD per acre for commercial and office land use and 275 GPD per unit for residential land use. The figures below represent the impact that the total build out of the 36 -acre commercial areas of commercial and office land use and the proffered 1,390 residential units will have on the water supply and treatment systems. Q = 1,000 GPD per acre Q = 1,000 GPD x 36 acres • Q = 36,000 GPD projected at total commercial and office build out Q = 275 GPD per household Q = 275 GPD x 1,390 residential units Q = 382,250 GPD projected at total residential build out TOTAL Q = 418,250 GPD at total project build out The projected water usage for the proposed rezoning is 418,250 GPD at total build out. This projection represents approximately 10% of the unutilized capacities at the James H. Diehl Water Filtration Plant and the North Water Filtration Treatment Plan. Therefore, available water source and infrastructure will be adequate to accommodate the capacity needs of the proposed residential and commercial land uses for the Willow Run Community. F. DRAINAGE The 359.97± -acre parcel has pronounced drainage divides, which follow the ridgelines located in the western and central portions of the project site. These drainage divides direct stormwater to the central and western portions of the project site, which then flow • in a northern direction to Abram's Creek and to the southwest near Route 37. The Willow Run Community will be designed to capture the majority of the stormwater flows 11 Greenway Engineering September 1, 2005 • Willow Run Rezoning Revised November 4, 2005 Revised June 27, 2006 Revised November 18, 2006 in the central portion of the development within a man -made lake that will be approximately 5 -acres in size. This lake will be created within the central portion of the Willow Run Community and designed as an amenity for the community and will be maintained by the Willow Run Homeowners Association. Smaller drainage areas that do not flow to the man-made lake will be designed to direct stormwater flows to the Abram's Creek channel. The Applicants' proffer statement provides for the use of best management practices (BMP) in conjunction with all commercial land uses to mitigate water quality impacts to Abram's Creek. This proffer statement also commits to the preparation of a geotechnical analysis for the purpose of ensuring that development impacts near the major karst feature do not adversely impact water quality through storm water management design. Storm water management will be designed in accordance with all applicable state and local storm water management requirements and erosion and sedimentation control requirements. G. SOLID WASTE DISPOSAL The impact on solid waste disposal facilities can be projected from an average annual business consumption of landfill volume of 5.4 cubic yards per 1,000 sq ft. of structural floor area and an average annual residential consumption of 5.4 cubic yards per . household (Civil Engineering Reference Manual, 4` edition). The following figures show the increase in average annual volume based on the 375,000 square feet of commercial and office land use, and 1,390 residential units that are projected to develop over a 7 -year period: AV = 5.4 Cu. Yd. per 1,000 sq. ft. AV = 5.4 Cu. Yd. x 375 (1,000 sq. ft.) AV = 2,025 Cu. Yd. at commercial build out/yr, or 1,418 tons /yr at build out AV = 5.4 Cu. Yd. per household AV = 5.4 Cu. Yd. x 1,390 households AV = 7,506 Cu. Yd. at residential build out, or 5,255 tons /yr at build out TOTAL AV = 6,673 tons /yr / 7 -yr build -out = 954 ton annual increase at build out The Municipal Solid Waste area of the Regional Landfill has a current remaining capacity of 13,100,000 cubic yards of air space. The projected 7 -year build out of the subject site will generate on average 954 tons of solid waste annually. This represents a 0.47% increase in the annual solid waste received by the Municipal Solid Waste area of the Regional Landfill, which currently averages 200,000 tons per year. The complete build out of the Willow Run Community is projected to increase the solid waste received by the Municipal Solid Waste area of the Regional Landfill by 2.6% annually. The Applicants' proffer statement provides for curbside trash pickup service in the 12 Greenway Engineering • September 1, 2005 • Willow Run Rezoning Revised November 4, 2005 Revised June 27, 2006 Revised November 18, 2006 Willow Run Community; therefore, transportation and increased volume impacts at the citizen convenience centers will be mitigated and tipping fees will be generated that will create a continuous revenue source for the Regional Landfill by the Willow Run Community. H. HISTORICAL SITES AND STRUCTURES The Frederick County Rural Landmarks Survey identifies three structures on the 359.97± -acre site as the 740 House ( #34 -89), the 750 House ( #34 -90) and the Marshal House ( #34- 1236), although none of these structures are deemed potentially significant. Two sites within close proximity are identified as potentially significant, which include the Stuart Brown House ( #34 -1239) and Homespun ( #34 -180). The Homespun site is further identified as being potentially eligible for the state and national register of historic places. Furthermore, the southwestern portion of the 2 nd Winchester Core Battlefield area is located in the northeastern portion of the subject site. The Stuart Brown House ( #34 -1239) is located on the Jova Properties, LCC parcel adjacent to the Route 37 interchange area at Cedar Creek Grade. This structure is currently utilized as a residential rental property, and is not visible from the Willow Run Community. The Homespun site ( #34 -180) is located across Cedar Creek Grade from the southeastern portion of the site. An adaptive reuse of the Homespun site has been complete, which converted the historic structure into a commercial land use. Additionally, the Harvest Ridge Residential Community is being developed adjacent to and south of the Homespun site. The Homespun site has a mature row of evergreens along its frontage, which adequately screens the structure from Cedar Creek Grade. The Birchmont Drive intersection at Cedar Creek Grade is designed to align with the commercial entrance serving the Homespun site; therefore, no additional impacts are anticipated between the Willow Run Community and the Homespun site. The Applicants' proffer statement provides for a double row evergreen tree planting screen between the southern most residential lot that is located across Cedar Creek Grade from the Homespun site to minimize viewshed impacts. In August 2004, the Shenandoah Valley Battlefield Foundation Executive Committee (SVBF) was asked to consider the potential for acquiring the potion of the 2 nd Winchester Core Battlefield area that is located on the subject site. The SVBF Executive Committee provided a letter to Greenway Engineering dated August 16, 2004, which stated that there was not a desire to acquire this area due to the significant amount of lost integrity of the overall core battlefield area resulting from the development of the Meadow Branch Community. Therefore, the development of the Willow Run Community will not have a negative impact to existing historic structures and core battlefield area. LJ 13 Greenway Engineering • September 1, 2005 • Willow Run Rezoning Revised November 4, 2005 Revised June 27, 2006 Revised November 18, 2006 • L IMPACT ON COMMUNITY FACILITIES The Frederick County Capital Facilities Fiscal Impact Model was prepared for the proposed rezoning of the 359.97± -acre site based on a proffered maximum square footage of 110,000 square feet of commercial and office land use and 850 residential units. The results of the Capital Facilities Fiscal Impact Model identify that the build out of the Willow Run community will create a negative fiscal impact of $7,692.00 for each residential unit. The Applicants' proffer statement guarantees the development of 20,000 square feet of commercial land use; however, Greenway Engineering prepared a fiscal impact model run that only provided commercial land use credit for 10,000 square feet of commercial that was guaranteed in the November 4, 2005 proffer statement. The Applicants' proffer statement provides a monetary contribution to Frederick County in the amount of $9,078 for each non -age restricted residential unit to mitigate the fiscal impacts to public schools, parks and recreation, fire and rescue services, and other County services. A monetary contribution of $2,000.00 is proffered for each age restricted residential unit to mitigate the fiscal impacts to all County services, exclusive of public schools, which are not impacted by this specific population. Furthermore, the Applicants' proffer statement provides $1,000.00 for each non -age restricted residential lot to public schools, which will generate between $1.11 - $1.32 million dollars for site acquisition funding. The Applicants have also proffered an additional $50,000.00 to • mitigate impacts to the volunteer fire and rescue services. This monetary proffer provides $25,000.00 to the first responder companies in Frederick County and the City of Winchester that will provide service to the Willow Run Community. Additionally, the Applicants' proffer statement provides for community recreational amenities that include a community center facility that is a minimum of 4,000 square feet in floor area for the overall community, a community center facility for the age- restricted units that is a minimum of 2,000 square feet in floor area, public and private bicycle and pedestrian facilities and neighborhood parks. Therefore, the monetary contributions provided for in the Applicants' proffer statement, coupled with the recreational amenities adequately mitigate the community facilities impacts and capital cost needs for the Willow Run Community. • 14 oar ��0 �0 S C `� N 0 I {t ( ,. P C L a CD r N 3 N �I D cD O m m" 1 O C) Q to O O I 1 CD 0 N WILLOW RUN AERIAL OVERVIEW SHAWNEE MAGISTERIAL DISTRICT ,TE:2006 -11 -20 [PROJECTID: ALE: 1 Inch equals 1,000 Feet WILLOW RUN BY: DWE AERIAL OVERVIEW 4ngtue GREENWAY E 151 Mindy Hill IMnt Otnchestor, Virginia 220 TCI.ph..* 640 -852 --41% FAX 640 -- 922 - -952R wmr. grannrayeng, eom O �w m m y l 8 WILLOW RUN ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES EXHIBIT SHAWNEE MAG ISTERIAL DISTRICT FREDERICK COUNTY, VA "�`a DAM PtwV lox GREENWAY ENO $� || � g a \� C / / � ` \A » � a) § §)k\r \ ( t tm »nn�m. _BtE; c�c< § \ \ \ \/� c11 ooc< ��. �§() § §� z 000< § m r rr. NQ§§� j\)k` m gRR, G%oo Gg \ \ \ \[ )/ \ \}; aa3= ��qa \&§( /to § §� \� WILLOW RUN G E N■A EN( SOIL CONDITIONS EXHIBIT �� « � — so — !| � SHAWNEE __ DISTRICT � * F 7 __�zn�,m •S ili Poll 11,111 xdd� m q j d a Q 9 y A N O d p n� � Z d �-3 e � z d 0 Q x�Qy Q ��a � 0 m IA m 0 9 s B WILLOW RUN LOCATION AND ZONING MAP EXHIBIT SHAWNEE MAGISTERIAL DISTRICT FREDERICK COUNTY, VA ' 6 - p DATE Ra lox , ,,. , „, GREENWAY ENGI � M� 41B6 9NIV33N10N3 AVMN33UDS mmm samni3amis aN V S31IS 'IV3IMOISIH 00 .008 =., 4 :31 131V�S N Amxr lwwo3 a u mo 'I'II m , SNOISN ,Y,LX3 QVO?I nrn mff 4� SA977V YLVARId Al /Y 017812 Qg,LVOVA dS O,L A1Y LOaA M S99n,cv,Vi y9jvx m 9OVdS NddO'i's^ 7VI0? MHOO Q.71LOIY,LS3?I 30V A71NVJ LL7i2N tiE:r 03H0V,L,LV A7INVd MNIS 03H0V,La7Q A7INVrl 370NIS ON3031 0131MILLY8 380O H31SMONIM PAZ 3SflOH mmove LuvniS • 6£Z L•b£# ZZ9 3100tl'3SOOH • L£Z4b£# WBVi 3AOO - MOOtl8N3d • 9£ZL•b£J# NndS3WOH' 0814£# 3snOH OSL • 06•1 3SOOH ObL • 68•b£A# M i ON3'J3l A3A80S SHtlVWONVI 1V808 000 00t 0 OOC7 00 3ad �ZZ 9 3yltilidq LSD N OBT -66# B SW `i 3N00� 0/ wi b IIIIV 0 0 • A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run Located in: Frederick County, Virginia Prepared for: 11 Miller and Smith Greystone Properties 8401 Greensboro Drive Suite 300 McLean, VA 22102 Prepared by: Patton Harris Rust & Associates, pc End neers. Surveyors, Planners. LmdsccpeArchtects. pH F'3C4.264 West Virg nia June 22, 2006 (Revised from the July 2005 submission) 11 • OVERVIEW Report Summary Patton Harris Rust & Associates, pc (PHR +A) has prepared this "revised" traffic study (from July 2005 submission) for Miller and Smith and Greystone Properties to present the impacts associated with the proposed Willow Run development located northeast of the Cedar Creek Grade (Route 622)/Route 37 interchange in Frederick County, Virginia. The purpose of this report is to amend the Phase 1 and Phase 2 analyses using the revised land use and future roadway network. Phase 1 includes 260 single family- detached units and 339 single family- attached units that will be built -out by Year 2009. Phase 2 (full build -out) consists of 425 single family- detached units, 490 single family - attached units, 416 apartment units, 108 elderly housing- attached units, 150,000 square feet of office and 225,000 square feet of retail, which will be built -out by Year 2012. In order to accommodate the future traffic volumes, PHR +A assumed the following infrastructure improvements with respect to each Phase. Phase 1 includes: 1) Completion of Jubal Early Drive Extended from the existing Jubal Early Drive, through the Willow Run development, to a point east of Merrimans Lane; 2) Completion of Willow Run Drive from the Jubal Early Drive Extended to a point north of Cedar Creek Grade, 3) Completion of Birch Mont Drive from the Jubal Early Drive Extended to Cedar Creek Grade, 4) Completion of the Meadow Branch Avenue Extended to Route 50 and 5) Realignment of Merrimans Lane north of Breckinridge Lane. Phase 2 assumes the improvements described under Phase 1 as well as the following infrastructure improvements: 1) Completion of the Jubal Early Drive Extended to Route 37, 2) Completion of a diamond interchange at the intersection of Merrimans Lane/Route 37 and 3) Realignment of Merrimans Lane north of the new Merrimans Lane/Route 37 interchange. Figure 1 is provided to illustrate the location of Willow Run with respect to the surrounding roadway network. Methodology The traffic impacts accompanying the Willow Run development were obtained through a sequence of activities as the narratives that follow document: • Assessment of background traffic including other planned projects in the area of impact, • Calculation of trip generation for Willow Run, • Distribution and assignment of Willow Run generated trips onto the completed study area road network, • Analysis of capacity and level of service using the newest version of the highway capacity software, HCS -2000, for existing and future conditions. • P �� A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 1 0 11 0 No Scale "T • Figure 1 Pu Vicinity Map A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 2 0 IJ CJ EXISTING CONDITIONS 11 Patton Harris Rust & Associates, pc (PHR +A) obtained AM and PM peak hour manual turning movement counts at the intersections of Cedar Creek Grade (Route 622)/Merrimans Lane (Route 621), Cedar Creek Grade/Route 37 interchange ramps, Cedar Creek Grade/Harvest Drive, US Route 50/Route 37 interchange ramps, US Route 50/Merrimans Lane, Merrimans LaneBreckinridge Lane, Jubal Early Drive/Handley Avenue and Jubal Early DriveNalley Avenue. Additionally, 24 -hour automatic "tube" counts were conducted along the Cedar Creek Grade west of Harvest Drive. PHR +A established the ADT (Average Daily Traffic) along each of the study area roadway links using an assumed "k" factor (the ratio of PM peak hour traffic volumes to 24 -hour traffic volumes) of 10 %. Figure 2 shows the existing ADT and AM/PM peak hour traffic volumes at key locations throughout the study area. Figure 3 shows the respective existing lane geometry and AM/PM peak hour levels of service. All traffic count data and HCS -2000 levels of service worksheets are included in the Appendix section of this report. P�A + d A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 3 0 0 0 4®194(288) 1e439(1263) Route 50 p No Scale 45(43) X27 4(1067) 51(98) n"1. Route 50 0i133(159 24(63) 622 (44) 3 *' 39(128) 60 n �1 98�1i N� o 6 — 461(1086) `,� 45) . ,n 160-1) — 228(603) Handley Route 50 Ave ® (3)12 .. e � n 621 LQ y n � _ • • 1 44 A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 4 l JS3 ®1 56(265 234 (365) 51(98) n"1. 27 855) Z 24(63) 622 (603)7 @p *' 39(128) r�59(91) (14)21.,R Ce �ee j ) 4 ( e ® (3)12 .. e � n n b q %�387(662 4 ®56(115) P 4-27(147) (45)89 Route 622 X43(69) (5 63)441 ) A (59) 1081 q a q Route 622 (56917"ti 3 ( WW CO Qti AM Peak Hour(PM Peak Hour) Figure 2 Existing ADT and AM/PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes 44 A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 4 • 9 P + L A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 5 • • PHASE 1 TRAFFIC ANALYSIS (2009) E Phase 1 is analyzed assuming the anticipated future roadway network that includes the following: 1) Completion of the Jubal Early Drive Extended from the existing Jubal Early Drive, through the Willow Run development, to a point east of Merrimans Lane; 2) Completion of Willow Run Drive from the Jubal Early Drive Extended to a point north of Cedar Creek Grade, 3) Completion of Birch Mont Drive from the Jubal Early Drive Extended to Cedar Creek Grade, 4) Completion of the Meadow Branch Avenue Extended to Route 50 and 5) Realignment of Merrimans Lane north of Breckinridge Lane. 2009 BACKGROUND CONDITIONS hi order to accurately depict future conditions within the study area, PHR +A utilized A Traffic Impact Analysis of the WWW Property by PHR +A, dated December 5, 2002 to determine the trips associated with not yet completed area developments% Based upon the 7 Edition of the Institute of Transportation Engineers' (ITE) Trip Generation Report and the aforementioned traffic study, Tables la and lb are provided to summarize the calculated trips associated with each of the 2009 "other developments ". Table la Background Development: WWW Property Trin Generation Summary • ITE AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour Land Use Amount ADT In I Out I Total In I Out I Total Code 750 Office Park 5 acres 350 30 381 34 194 229 2241 813 Discount Superstore 135,000 SF 127 122 248 252 262 514 6030 820 Shopping Center 25,000 SF 42 27 68 120 130 251 2758 Total 519 179 697 406 587 993 11,028 Total Internall 34 34 68 83 83 165 1,898 Total Pass -by _25 22 47 56 59 115 1318 Total "New Trips" 459 122 582 1 268 445 713 1 7812 A `l l A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 6 \J 9 Table lb Background Development: Valley Health Systems and Degrange Properties Trin Generation Summary ITE Land Use Amount AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour A )T In Out Total b. Out Total Code Valley Health Systems Property 150 Warehousing (Distribution Center) 5 acres 63 25 88 26 48 73 383 710 Office 50,000 SF 95 13 108 23 112 135 782 750 Office Park 5 acres 350 30 381 34 194 229 2241 620 Nursing Home 24,000 SF 6 3 9 5 5 10 146 252 Elderly Housing - Attach 80 units 3 4 6 5 3 9 278 Sub -total 517 75 592 93 363 456 3831 Degrange Property 312 Business Hotel 50 rooms 17 12 29 19 12 31 364 760 Research & Development Park 5 acres 70 13 84 9 68 77 398 820 Shopping Center 25,000 SF 43 27 70 121 131 252 2795 912 Drive -in Bank 2,400 SF 17 13 30 55 55 110 694 932 H -T Restaurant 7,600 SF 46 42 88 51 32 83 966 Sub -total 192 108 300 254 298 552 5218 Total 709 182 892 347 661 1,008 9,049 Total Internal 33 33 67 80 80 160 1,415 Total Pass -by 19 8 28 28 38 66 583 Total "New Trips" 657 141 797 240 543 783 7050 In addition to the trips relating to the specific background developments shown in Tables la and lb, existing traffic volumes were increased along study area roadways using an historic growth rate of 5% per year (compounded annually) through Year 2009 as determined in the aforementioned WWW Property traffic study. Figure 4 shows the 2009 background ADT and AM/PM peak hour traffic volumes at key locations throughout the study area. Figure 5 shows the corresponding 2009 background lane geometry and AM/PM peak hour levels of service. All HCS -2000 levels of service worksheets are included in the Appendix section of this report. P + 1 A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 7 0 0 E 0 1 R+A A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 8 0 • • 0 Signalized Intersection LOS = C(C) Signalized Intersection LOS = BB) � pgB(C A(B) J� Route 62. (B)B �f �P� G� ✓ G�' pgB(C " $ Route 622 (C)B q� 1 Signalized Intersection N LOS = C(C) 'Suggested I mprovement / Signalizalion �n � (C)C 'Suggested 4 7 B(Q* *(B90 B Y (A)* e 622 alized ction —PT 7 1 {� /l— Figur 5 Phase 1: 2009 Background LOS S P "l + i Signalized [ Intersection LOS = C(D) ® C(D) C(C) � Route 50 No Scale 50 Signalized (C)C.*► 4 InlerseRion d► Q �� LOS =B(C) V� �B(C) I I Y J/ (C) y (' 60 621 { *(C) `Q 9� C 9 �* S Unnignalized I nsigne tion BR'C2.;`t�e)a Intersection Intersection � 621 ¢ C Unsignelized t Intersection B(C) I Dlb�Ear /� d)eYPve Pxr��d Han �� � �a ✓Ld GAG, SITE o ' rye ~ C(D) t gy e 3j 4"� 5 X Intersection LOS R7j u� G J LOS =C(C) i C1eeY ftft* O B �) rade 622 ( C)B Signalized Intersection b ` LOS = B(C) Q 1 L e ar Cree Grade Route 622 Unsignaliud G Intersection mac` � Denotes Free -Flow Lane * Intersection etion Intersection *Denotes critical unsignalized movement AM Peak Hour(PM Peak Hour) (2) Denotes new intersections A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 9 0 PHASE 1 TRIP GENERATION PHR +A determined the number of trips entering and exiting the site using equations and rates provided in the 7 Edition of the Institute of Transportation Engineers' (ITE) Trip Generation Report Table 2 was prepared to summarize the trip generation associated with the Phase 1 Willow Run development. Table 2 Proposed Development: Willow Run Phase 1 Trip Generation Summary • 1] ITE Land Use Amount Code AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour ADT In Out Total In Out I Total 210 Single Family Detached 260 units 230 Single Family Attached 339 units 48 23 144 114 191 137 160 110 94 54 253 164 2,600 2,949 Total 71 257 329 269 148 417 5,549 PHASE 1 TRIP DISTRIBUTION AND TRIP ASSIGNMENT The distribution of trips was based upon local travel patterns for the road network surrounding the proposed site. PHR +A utilized the trip distribution percentages shown in Figure 6 to assign the Phase 1 Willow Run trips (Table 2) throughout the study area roadway network. Figure 7 shows the respective Phase I development - generated AM/PM peak hour trips and ADT assignments. PHASE 12009 BUILD -OUT CONDITIONS The Phase 1 Willow Run assigned trips (Figure 7) were added to the 2009 background traffic volumes (Figure 4) to obtain 2009 Phase 1 build -out conditions. Figure 8 shows Phase 1 2009 build -out ADT and AM/PM peak hour traffic volumes at key locations throughout the study area. Figures 9a and 9b show the respective Phase 1 2009 build -out lane geometry and levels of service. All HCS -2000 levels of service worksheets are included in the Appendix section of this report. PT_T + L A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 10 0 0 P Residential • I 1 1 Figure 6 Phase 1: Trip Distribution Percentages P "R + A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 11 ! ! *I • 11 No Scale 1 %. 52(30) 4--13(7) ��Route 4 1 �l 14(54) (67)1 � V ° feL r a " ",6• vas "!�' 821 4 0 1 p m y `T' 6 > 1 '�° Handley ti 0-- / 46 "75) ruby Ave Df EmEary �c SITE 3 q , 6 a• ` 3 p (6 �1 (4 T P l ~ L x � P7 •21(81) .'] �•^� 622 Ced C ( Grade Q X21 (87 4.. 39(22 r �.rY'' (44) 77 Ce reel ...p I j Route 622 �r`'b" 27)7--* ! : e AM Peak Hour(PM Peak Hour) - New Intersection l r 21- 1« 13(7) L ' Phase 1: Development - Generated Trip Assignments A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 12 0 n U 0 b a" e o, No Scale �t l N �f I�~�. L57(55) 4 ' ° 573(1463) • —� (912) �e 299(397) (143) 621 e.. p vNVi a 5.168(5' x20(2 I3anNey A� l4I (oo)o� � jUbW Ave 'b�dRe )p tee `6 � 1r La Trp�y� SI 1 L' � � L6a' ~ I .d't 4 •�.. `/yy8�1) `b4^'�h`� Jm e l r <+v 41�tJ144) ,Z, .lr�� , 31 0) (s)114'� �k„ t (1631)21 OWN* e_ 63(171) Cedal Creek ezz (s26`d �j., 9ai�s (' (7y (4)75 ^ x ti e (52)90 �� .��I � • %507(852) � qa 4..110(l69) ''?- �S� Y (825 )976, 4-47(195) (57)114..,* Route 622 ' � 0-81(103) (745)570.�� -tea, Route a o AM Peak Hour(PM Peak Hour) via•- ® , 1%, T A New Intersection Y ffNl i • Figure 8 Phase 1: 2009 Build -out ADT and AM/PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run PpR+A June 22, 2006 Page 13 IL JL Grade u 0 No Scale r v 621 W 3 0 LFA (A)• lub� Unsignalized� y`' Dr, Xf / y d Intersectioo j w 1 SITE U U t g�G =QQ +osl Earl C� �r Exrd. y �A(4 Unsignalized 9 r� Intersection • Jam\ -Wi r�u T Q Denotes new intersections I * Denotes critical unsignalized movement AM Peak Hour(PM Pea Ho ur) _ Figu 9 a Phase 1: 2009 Build -out LOS (Proffered Improvements) PH A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22,2006 Page 14 • 0 0 Signalized Intersection A LOS = C( C(C) (C) �B(C) C Signalized "Suggested Intersection LOS =B(B) �A(B) Improvemem Signalizalim LOS = C(D) 4.- C(D) Route 622 (B)B i e.,� B(c) Route 622 B�� Signalized £ ] ntersection LOS= B(C) 1 Q i b B(C)' ♦(B) Unsignalized Q V Intersectbn w \ k` Route 622 Unsignalized —Tl Tl . ll Unsignalized SITE �m W Unsignalized Z � A Intersection 4 AM Peak Hour(I Signalized Intersection LOS = C(D) 4.- C(D) lam® Route 50 .� No Scale Signalized (C)Cz 4 Intersection r► .�0 LOS = B(C) iy QCs Unsignalized * J Inlerstttion L _ R uggested , Signalized B +pe,{.,'_ g( B)♦ g ° Intersection ovement" LOS = C(C) • 1 Right a Is e Unsignalized Q 1� Intersection G (D)C� - Ex(e ✓p G` O �,,, •mi � C(D) r e / Signalized Intersection LOS = Cm) • (C)g �� Signalized Intersection ./(O G I� LOS =Elm) b •(B)A� edaz Creek G Grade Unsignalized Intersection Signalized Intersection tre LOS =B(C) (C)B= w I - „ Suggested • jj�r Improvement" j G will • 1 Them J w G Denotes Free -Flow Lane Denotes critical unsignalized movement P eak Hour) QDenotes new intersections -,r L Figure 9b Phase 1: 2009 Build -out LOS (w/ Suggested Regional Improvements l A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 H Page 15 C 7 i U PHASE 2 TRAFFIC ANALYSIS (2012) Phase 2 (full build -out) is analyzed assuming the anticipated future roadway network improvements described in Phase 1 as well as the following infrastructure improvements: 1) Completion of the Jubal Early Drive Extended to Route 37, 2) Completion of a diamond interchange at the intersection of Merrimans Lane/Route 37 and 3) Realignment of Merrimans Lane north of the new Merrimans Lane/Route 37 interchange. 2012 BACKGROUND CONDITIONS In order to accurately depict future conditions within the study area, PHR+A utilized A Traffic Impact Analysis of the WW Property by PHR +A, dated December 5, 2002 to determine the trips associated with not yet completed area developments:. Based upon the 7 th Edition of the Institute of Transportation Engineers' (ITE) Trip Generation Report and the aforementioned traffic study, Tables 3a and 3b are provided to summarize the calculated trips associated with each of the 2012 `other developments ". Table 3a Background Development: WWW Property Trin Generntion Summary r ITE Land Use Amount AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour ADT In Out Total In Out Total Code 750 Office Park 5 acres 350 30 381 34 194 229 2241 813 Discount Superstore 135,000 SF 127 122 248 252 262 514 6030 820 Shopping Center 25,000 SF 42 27 68 120 130 251 2758 Total 519 179 697 406 587 993 11,028 Total Internal 34 34 68 83 83 165 1,898 Total Pass -by 25 22 47 56 59 115 1318 Total "New Trips" 459. 122 582 1 268 445 713 1 7812 P + ` A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 16 • • Table 3b Background Development: Valley Health Systems and Degrange Properties Trip Generation Summary • • ITE AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour Code Land Use Amount ADT In Out Total In Out Total Valley Health Systems Property 150 Warehousing (Distribution Center) 5 acres 63 25 88 26 48 73 383 710 Office 50,000 SF 95 13 108 23 112 135 782 750 Office Park 5 acres 350 30 381 34 194 229 2241 620 Nursing Home 24,000 SF 6 3 9 5 5 10 146 252 Elderly Housing - Attach 80 units 3 4 6 5 3 9 278 Sub -total 517 75 591 93 363 456 3831 Degrmge Property 312 Business Hotel 50 rooms 17 12 29 19 12 31 364 760 Research & Development Park 5 acres 70 13 84 9 68 77 398 820 Shopping Center 25,000 SF 43 27 70 121 131 252 2795 912 Drive -in Bank 2,400 SF 17 13 30 55 55 110 694 932 H -T Restaurant 7,600 SF 46 42 88 51 32 83 966 Sub -mtal 192 108 300 254 298 552 5218 Total 709 182 892 347 661 1,008 9,049 Total Internal 33 33 67 80 80 160 1,415 Total Pass -by 19 8 28 28 38 66 583 Total "New Trips" 657 141 797 240 543 783 7050 In addition to the trips relating to the specific background developments shown in Tables 3a and 3b, existing traffic volumes were increased along study area roadways using an historic growth rate of 5% per year (compounded annually) through Year 2012 as determined in the aforementioned WWW Property traffic study. Figure 10 shows the 2012 background ADT and AM/PM peak hour traffic volumes at key locations throughout the study area. Figures 11a and 11b show the corresponding 2012 background lane geometry and AM/PM peak hour levels of service. HCS -2000 levels of service worksheets are provided in the Appendix section of this report. P � A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 17 0 8r, � Y q� • (4)18 � e 87)160 (59)58—%_ 4.58(189) 4 � N =� %.66(64) ~' 634(1695) SITE . � a f- 1 91(217) (65) > (1032)1032' '* ! (lg2)5 (' i sS \� 621 ♦ J 287, 8331 �. ry i 621 No Scale eL 4 gQ \\ 731 " � 291 "(al jt %��✓� �s�9r y (21j f�h �8s��a8) o v A. mil. rs93 ♦ Vo�3 71(460) 0 r p� ^ 2)118 622 (38�r C ek (338 87 e S ° � h 75(: %532(910 4-306 — X22(87) dar Cr 1 `� Route 622 (52)75 � e Grade 1 (765)92 AM Peak Hour(PM Peak Hour) 2 New Intersection Q Round -about I t F 10 Pha 2: 2012 Background ADT and AM/PM Peak Hour Traffic V P "R + i A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 19 !o SITE . � a % y; > 287, 8331 �. ry i 621 No Scale eL 4 gQ \\ 731 " � 291 "(al jt %��✓� �s�9r y (21j f�h �8s��a8) o v A. mil. rs93 ♦ Vo�3 71(460) 0 r p� ^ 2)118 622 (38�r C ek (338 87 e S ° � h 75(: %532(910 4-306 — X22(87) dar Cr 1 `� Route 622 (52)75 � e Grade 1 (765)92 AM Peak Hour(PM Peak Hour) 2 New Intersection Q Round -about I t F 10 Pha 2: 2012 Background ADT and AM/PM Peak Hour Traffic V P "R + i A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 19 0 0 9 • 11 No Scale 4 AZ B(B) 1 signalized Intersection L = B(B) ltovte 50 1 t t Signaliz Intersection LOS = B(B) ztch•_ a e� � B�B� ✓ p �� A _ C 'i a � y dr Round -abou LOS = A(A) R u Round -about Q� Pie LOS = A(B) At 621 ; Auba J FartyD %� Pkra SITE t e 37; a7 J� Ctec Ce Cradc 622 Denotes new intersections * Denotes critical unsignalized movement AM Peak Hour(PM Peak Hour) T T A 1"Hl�*1 t' Figure 11a Phase 2: 2012 Background LOS (Proffered Improvements) PT-4R it i A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 19 C • • Signalized Signalized [� Intersection V Intersection 4e LOS =D(C) C «m LOS =C(D) 4-- Cm) �� C(C) � ., Route 50 4 Route 50 Signalized (D)C .01, D)C� 4 No Scale (D)D'� Intersection ,G LOS B(C) �� 4 y G �B(C) t 621 ute 50 .(B)B 9J (011 r� Unsignalized ,+, J Intersection F Signalized "Suggested ` Improvement" Intersection Improvement'• AQ Signalized EB -1 Right �s Si nalization A ��(( -� Intersection HB -1Thru LOS = B(C) 4— A(C) g Brae(- ;A(B)r LOS = C(C) SB - 1 Right Route 62 (C)B 37 Unsignal¢ed .8 > V/ y Intersection M 0 a G t rk Unsignalized Q Intersection Q (C )C �]• 1 jj 1 �, t � `• p(B)* � G - 47B(B) _ 621 ✓ubafEar( �Exrd Signalized • Cdayss Route 622 intersection LOS =C - 4 (C)B Signalized Gs- Intersection SIT -j' �H LOS B(C) S il9'i 3 C( � D) "Suggested ib'x ( bJC ` � l f® ISi rovement" Signali Rig t S ��� 1° Q• Sit - 1 Right jQ C �� Signalized (C B(Q* CAade 622 �-� )Cr\� Intersection �G (B)B G Ij LOS =C(D) � G� Unsignalized < +(B)A Cedar Creek G Intersection C " Grade G am- q r j Intersection n rd Signalized t Intersection IA Los = B(C) ( C)B �► °�� } 'Sug ` Route 622 .(3)A4 p Route 622 Improvement'• it Unsignelized WB - I Thru Unsignalized J� G • Intersection 4 Denotes Free -Flow Lane �Qt �` Intersection m * Denotes critical unsignalized movement AM Peak Hour(PM Peak Hour) Q Denotes new intersections • Figure 11b Phase 2: 2012 Background LOS (w/ Suggested Regional Improvements) �� A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 20 C C� PHASE 2 TRIP GENERATION • PHR +A determined the number of trips entering and exiting the site using equations and rates provided in the 7 Edition of the Institute of Transportation Engineers' (ITE) Trip Generation Report Table 4 was prepared to summarize the trip generation associated with Phase 2 (complete build -out) of the Willow Run development. Table 4 Proposed Development: Willow Run Phase 2 Trin Generation Summary • n LJ ITT AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour ADT Land Use Amount Code In Out Total In Out Total 210 Single Family Detached 425 units 77 230 307 248 146 394 4,250 220 Apartment 416 units 42 166 208 160 86 246 2,496 230 Single Family Attached 490 units 31 153 184 148 73 221 4,263 252 Elderly Housing - Attached 108 4 5 9 7 5 12 376 710 Office 150,000 SF 228 31 259 42 205 247 1823 820 Retail 225,000 SF 155 99 255 513 556 1069 11504 Total 537 684 1,221 1,119 1,071 2,190 24,712 TRIP DISTRIBUTION AND TRIP ASSIGNMENT The distribution of trips was based upon local travel patterns for the road network surrounding the proposed site. PHR +A utilized the trip distribution percentages shown in Figure 12 to assign the Phase 2 Willow Run trips (Table 4) throughout the study area. Figure 13 shows the corresponding development - generated AM/PM peak hour trips and ADT assignments. 2012 BUILD -OUT CONDITIONS The Willow Run assigned trips (Figure 13) were then added to the 2012 background volumes (Figure 10) to obtain 2012 build -out conditions. Figure 14 shows 2012 Phase 2 build -out ADT and AM/PM peak hour traffic volumes at key locations throughout the study area. Figures 15a and 15b show the corresponding 2012 build -out lane geometry and AM/PM peak hour levels of service. All HCS -2000 levels of service worksheets are included in the Appendix section of this report. 44 RA JL IL A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 21 0 0 Ll �� 1 fl tL • FFigure 12 Phase 2: Trip Distribution Percentages PMl + i A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 22 9 0 0 1� k (2 x+ : 4� Jj X31(113) (621 L • ���� 6 I nded ���� SITE «/! 3¢ r i (28)19 •� xRoute 37F � � ,3 �y�� saj�� >a 37 WN Kam 4m28(15) - 622 q�w� .. (j6)z *Our 2� Creek �':•..;.,� )14` r ( �� I / � / .:;::Ubai c•� ,- '�'e3��: � i ✓f 4.28(15) X28(15) )8 ..y Route 62: • �N�rtlivn 1Z No Scale ~ ( FE 146(84; rs� 4. 5 5(31 ) Cedar Cn xw�`i ��: %¢ ' . o,r Route 622 �'��:; � �' �,,�- �$ � (92)<11�"� ('rude Ir 2tins� � AM Peak Hour(PM Peak Hour) New Intersection Round -about Development- Generated Trip Assignments A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 23 • • b 0 1287(425) 833(1779) ~ 2 r. ° y F.1155(1823) ( Route 50 2(131) 14 /"343(908) (655)1292 �...r ► No Scale h� p Route 50 b ° (982)942, ,y N ` 66(64) 1 � 6 of o o 34(1695) sa -.rs,S7 f'22113.'i/n 10�.e` .0 I� a a l • al .. uPf' 37 `� b ; s"' � {73) V ��� '� �S 19Z�) �'* ry 27(73) � (5G1 . (4572)]78 f 1���89(7,94) l�85(205) 622 l'd�•�� r ( ► x87(134 C (4718 ® ub q ti Qo4)s6� 75(145) 532(910) �sl Hr352(1196) 4..77(118) � • ` o�� (52)75 eder Creek ✓�� ,x30(35)) (803616 3�Route 622 , =$+� (856)968° " (115)167 �...� Rou[e 622 -- •' (59)58 -- %, o q� AM Peak Hour(PM Peak Hour) y f New Intersection 0 Round -about • PHA Figure 14: 2012 Build -out ADT and AM/PM Peak Hour Traffic Volumes A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run PfAA June 22, 2006 Page 24 IL IL 0 C� C] P Figure 15a 2012 Build -out LOS (Proffered Improvements) Pu J IL Q Denotes new intersections * Denotes critical unsignalized mo AM Peak Hour(PM Peak Hour) A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 25 0 • • Unsignalzed 2 C' F Inters ection AM Peak Hour(F 0 Signalized Intersection Q LOS = IXC) (D)D Signalized 'Suggested Intersection Improvement' LOS =B(C) A(C) Signalizalion Route 622 (C)B Vj V J G` 4p B(C r -0"' r Route 622 B 777111 Intersection Intersection � LOS = B(C) I Improvement" Signalization SB -1 Right Unsignalized Intersection r ' 7A(A) Route 622 Unsignalized Intersection -P R+A Figure 15b C(C) C Lms 2012 Build -out LOS (w/ Suggested Regional Improvements) �Ljl �l i 9 Signalized Intersection LOS = C(D) C(D) Signalized Intersection \® LOS = B(C) 621 No Scale (C)B 4"4 G ' r -0"' r Unsignalized Intersection "S @� Improvemen t C Signalized EB • 1 Right `$re 9(E♦ Inlerxction NB -1Thru eh_ a ) 9 LOS = C(C) SB -1 Right eL rsienalUed tp_ Intersection x Unsignnlized d Intersection d it �� txrd Signalized lntersection LOS = C(E) w, v C(E) C(E) C Signalized J 1 Intersection ✓LV CJ Ir LOS =C(E) 1 e � " 4 Grade Creek G Grade ♦ V` Unsignalized d ✓��� �\ Intentersection Signalized B(C Peak Intersection ft♦ ) LOS = R(C) (011 �► > "Suggested ��� Improvement" � of R'B • 1 Thru J r �­ Denotes Free -Flow Lane * Denotes critical unsignalized moveme (D Denotes new intersections A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Rum June 22, 2006 Page 26 ` txrd Signalized lntersection LOS = C(E) w, v C(E) C(E) C Signalized J 1 Intersection ✓LV CJ Ir LOS =C(E) 1 e � " 4 Grade Creek G Grade ♦ V` Unsignalized d ✓��� �\ Intentersection Signalized B(C Peak Intersection ft♦ ) LOS = R(C) (011 �► > "Suggested ��� Improvement" � of R'B • 1 Thru J r �­ Denotes Free -Flow Lane * Denotes critical unsignalized moveme (D Denotes new intersections A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Rum June 22, 2006 Page 26 0 0 CONCLUSIONS 0 The traffic impacts associated with the proposed Willow Run development are acceptable and manageable. For Phase 1 and Phase 2, PHR +A has provided the following conclusions as well as "suggested improvement measures" that are required to achieve levels of service "C" or better per the Frederick County minimum standards. For unsignalized intersections with levels of service "D ", traffic signalization is not suggested since traffic signalization warrants would not be satisfied. 2009 Phase 1 - As shown in Figure 9b, all existing intersections except Jubal Early Drive/Valley Avenue, Cedar Creek Grade/Route 11, Cedar Creek Grade/Route 37 interchange ramps and Cedar Creek Grade/Harvest Drive, will maintain levels of service "C" or better during 2009 Phase 1 build -out conditions (Improvements are shown at the intersection of Route 50/Route 37 interchange ramps since upgrades are currently underway). PHR +A has provided Figure 9a to show the "Proffered improvements ". "Suggested regional improvements" are shown in Figure 9b to maintain acceptable levels of service during 2009 build -out conditions. 2012 Phase 2 - As shown in Figure 15b, all existing intersections except Jubal • Early Drive/Valley Avenue, Cedar Creek Grade/Route 11, Cedar Creek Grade/Route 37 interchange ramps, Cedar Creek Grade/Merrimans Lane and Cedar Creek Grade/Harvest Drive, will maintain levels of service "C" or better during Phase 2 2012 build -out conditions (Improvements are shown at the intersection of Route 50/Route 37 interchange ramps since upgrades are currently underway). Each of the aforementioned intersections, except the intersection of Cedar Creek Grade/Merrimans Lane, will maintain unacceptable levels of service during background and build -out conditions. PHR +A has provided Figure 11a and Figure 15a to show the "Proffered improvements" and Figure l lb and Figure 15b to show the "suggested regional improvements" for 2012 background and build -out conditions, respectively. • A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run R_"+ June 22, Page e 27 27 JL IL 0 0 0 Willow Run Traditional Neighborhood Design Transportation Enhancements The Applicants' proffer statement has been designed to address the transportation impacts associated with the build -out of the residential and commercial land uses for the Willow Run Traditional Neighborhood Design Community, and to assist in the mitigation of several regional transportation issues that are a result of other developments and projected traffic volume increases. These proffered transportation improvements include the following: Proffered Transportation Improvement Program • Completely fund and construct the four -lane divided section of Jubal Early Drive from the current terminus in City of Winchester to the intersection serving the eastern neighborhood commercial land bays prior to issuance of the 300"' residential building permit. • Completely fund and construct the four -lane divided section of Jubal Early Drive from the eastern neighborhood commercial land bays to the first commercial center intersection prior to issuance of 450 residential building permit. • Completely fund and construct the four -lane divided section of Jubal Early Drive from the terminus of the first commercial center intersection to the Route 37 northbound on and off ramps prior to issuance of 600 residential building permit. • • Completely fund and construct the new Route 37/Jubal Early Drive interchange northbound and southbound on and off ramps using the existing bridge structure prior to the issuance of the 600 residential building permit. • Completely fund and construct the realignment of approximately 1,000 feet of the two -lane section of Merriman's Lane (Route 621) to the north of Jubal Early Drive to create a "T" intersection prior to issuance of 800 residential building permit. • Completely fund and construct a roundabout at the Route 37 southbound on and off ramps, or execute a signalization agreement with VDOT to fully fund traffic signalization at the Route 37 southbound on and off ramps. • Execute a signalization agreement with VDOT to fully fund traffic signalization at the intersection of Jubal Early Drive and Meadow Branch Avenue. • Execute a signalization agreement with VDOT to fully fund traffic signalization at the intersection of Jubal Early Drive and the Merriman's Lane north realignment at the commercial center intersection. • Execute a signalization agreement with VDOT to fully fund traffic signalization at the intersection of Cedar Creek Grade and Birchmont Drive. • Completely fund and construct right and left turn lanes at the intersection of Cedar Creek Grade and Birchmont Drive. • Allow the developer construction dollars to be utilized as matching funds unconditionally by Frederick County for additional transportation system improvements. • P �� A Revised Phased Traffic Impact Analysis of Willow Run June 22, 2006 Page 29