HomeMy WebLinkAbout10-24 TIA revised 03.04.25
Traffic Impact Analysis
Winchester East
at Opequon Creek
Frederick County, Virginia
September 19, 2024
(Revised March 4, 2025)
Prepared for:
T VA Winchester II LLC
c/o Terra Foundry Partners
1800 Diagonal Road
Alexandria, VA 22314
3/4/2025
Prepared by:
1140 Connecticut Ave NW
Suite 1010
Washington, DC 20036
T 202.296.8625
4114 Legato Road
Suite 650
Fairfax, VA 22033
T 703.787.9595
225 Reinekers Lane
Suite 750
Alexandria, VA 22314
T 703.721.3044
4951 Lake Brook Drive
Suite 250
Glen Allen, VA 23060
T 804.362.0578
www.goroveslade.com
This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, as an instrument of services, is intended for the spe cific
purpose and client for which it was prepared. Reuse of and improper reliance on this document without written authorization by
Gorove/Slade Associates, Inc., shall be without liability to Gorove/Slade Associates, Inc.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................................................... 6
Descriptions of Proposed Development ................................................................................................................................... 6
Principal Findings and Conclusions.......................................................................................................................................... 6
Overall Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................................... 7
Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................. 8
Background Information: Proposed Development (Site & Nearby) .............................................................................................. 9
Descriptions of the Existing Site ............................................................................................................................................... 9
Descriptions of Geographic Scope of Study and Limits of the Study Area ............................................................................... 9
Analysis of 2024 Existing Conditions.......................................................................................................................................... 14
Existing Roadway Network ..................................................................................................................................................... 14
Existing Traffic Volumes ......................................................................................................................................................... 14
Existing Intersection Capacity and Queueing Analysis........................................................................................................... 17
Analysis of 2027 Future Conditions Without Development ......................................................................................................... 19
Future without Development Traffic Volumes ......................................................................................................................... 19
Future without Development Intersection Capacity and Queuing Analysis ............................................................................ 26
Analysis of 2027 Future Conditions with Development .............................................................................................................. 28
Site Description ...................................................................................................................................................................... 28
Projected Site Trip Generation ............................................................................................................................................... 28
Distribution and Assignment of Site Traffic ............................................................................................................................. 28
Future with Development Traffic Volume ............................................................................................................................... 28
Future with Development Intersection Capacity and Queuing Analysis ................................................................................. 34
Preliminary Left and Right Turn Lane Warrant Assessments ..................................................................................................... 36
Left Turn Lane Warrant Assessment ...................................................................................................................................... 36
Right Turn Lane Warrant Assessment ................................................................................................................................... 36
Access Management Assessment ............................................................................................................................................. 37
Impacts of Route 37 Connection ................................................................................................................................................ 39
Before Connection.................................................................................................................................................................. 39
After Connection .................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Conclusions ................................................................................................................................................................................ 40
Analysis Components ............................................................................................................................................................. 40
Analysis Results ..................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Overall Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................................. 41
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LIST OF TECHNICAL APPENDICES
Appendix A – Scoping Document
Appendix B – Existing Traffic Count Data
Appendix C – Level of Service & Delay Definitions
Appendix D – Analysis Worksheets of 2024 Existing Conditions
Appendix E – Background Traffic Impact Studies
Appendix F – Analysis Worksheets of 2027 Future Conditions without Development
Appendix G – Analysis Worksheets of 2027 Future Conditions with Development
Appendix H – Turn Lane Warrants
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Site Location and Parcel Map ..................................................................................................................................... 10
Figure 2: Regional Location ....................................................................................................................................................... 11
Figure 3: Frederick County Zoning Map ..................................................................................................................................... 12
Figure 4: Study Intersections ...................................................................................................................................................... 13
Figure 5: 2024 Existing Conditions – Roadway Network Geometric Configuration and Traffic Control Devices ........................ 15
Figure 6: 2024 Existing Conditions – Peak Hour Vehicular Traffic Volumes .............................................................................. 16
Figure 7: 2024 Existing Conditions – Level of Service Results .................................................................................................. 18
Figure 8: Projected Inherent Regional Growth Traffic Volumes (2024 to 2027) ......................................................................... 22
Figure 9: Location of Background Development ........................................................................................................................ 23
Figure 10: Background Development Traffic Assignment .......................................................................................................... 24
Figure 11: 2027 Future Conditions without Development – Peak Hour Vehicular Traffic Volumes ............................................ 25
Figure 12: 2027 Future Conditions without Development – Level of Service Results ................................................................ 27
Figure 13: Generalized Development Plan ................................................................................................................................. 29
Figure 14: Direction of Approach (Site Trip) ............................................................................................................................... 30
Figure 15: 2027 Future Conditions with Development – Roadway Network Geometric Configuration and Traffic Control Devices
................................................................................................................................................................................................... 31
Figure 16: Site Generated Trip Assignment ............................................................................................................................... 32
Figure 17: 2027 Future Conditions with Development – Peak Hour Vehicular Traffic Volumes ................................................. 33
Figure 18: 2027 Future Conditions with Development – Level of Service Results ..................................................................... 35
Figure 19: Proposed Intersection Spacing ................................................................................................................................. 38
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Existing Roadway Network ........................................................................................................................................... 14
Table 2: 2024 Existing Conditions – Intersection Capacity Analysis Results ............................................................................. 17
Table 3: 2027 Future Conditions without Development – Intersection Capacity Analysis Results ............................................. 26
Table 4: Site Trip Generation (Peak Hour of the Adjacent Street; ITE 11th Ed.) ......................................................................... 28
Table 5: 2027 Future Conditions with Development– Intersection Capacity Analysis Results ................................................... 34
Table 6: Left Turn Lane Warrant Assessment Results (2027 Future Conditions with Development) ......................................... 36
Table 7: Right Turn Lane Warrant Assessment Results (2027 Future Conditions with Development) ....................................... 36
Table 8: VDOT Minimum Intersection Spacing Requirements for Commercial Entrances, Intersections, and Median Crossovers
(RDM, Appendix F, Table 2-2) ................................................................................................................................................... 37
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Executive Summary
This report presents the findings of a Traffic Impact Analysis (TIA) conducted for the proposed Winchester East at Opequon
Creek development (the Site / the Development) which is generally situated north of Senseny Road (Route 657), west of
Opequon Creek, and east of Canyon Road in Frederick County, Virginia.
This study was developed in accordance with the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) transportation impact analysis
guidelines. The document was prepared in accordance with the best professional practice and standards that assess the impact
of a proposed development on the transportation system and recommends improvements to lessen or negate those impacts.
Traffic impact analysis involves the evaluation of anticipated roadway conditions with and without the proposed development
and recommends transportation improvements to offset both the impacts of the increase in future traffic volumes and the
changes in traffic operations due to the development. The analysis assists public officials and developers to balance
interrelations between efficient traffic movements with necessary lane access.
Descriptions of Proposed Development
The site is situated on two parcels that can be identified on Frederick County Tax Maps with the following Tax PIN #s: 65 A 194B
and 65 A 195. The property area is approximately 91.7 acres and is currently zoned as RA (Rural Area District).
The Applicant is proposing to rezone the site to RP (Residential Performance District) in order to construct approximately 40
single-family detached units and 340 single-family attached units, including townhouses or duplexes/small lot units. The
development is anticipated to be complete and occupied by 2027.
Access to the site will be provided via one proposed full-movement entrance along Senseny Road, and one proposed full-
movement entrance at the future fourth leg connection at Senseny Glen and Canyon Road.
Principal Findings and Conclusions
Discussions regarding the study assumptions and relevant background information were held with VDOT and the County on
July 23, 2024. This scope details the study assumptions and relevant background information discussed in the meetings and
correspondence. A copy of the scoping document is included in Appendix A.
The analysis contained herein presents the 2024 Existing Conditions, 2027 Future Conditions without Development, and 2027
Future Conditions with Development.
The analysis presented in this report supports the following assumptions and major findings:
Analysis Components
• 2024 existing peak hour volumes were derived via turning movement counts collected at intersections within the study
area on Thursday, May 23, 2024, and Tuesday, August 20, 2024.
• The trip generation associated with the Site was based on the Institute of Transportation Engineers’ (ITE) Trip Generation
Manual, 11th Edition publication.
• Intersection capacity and queuing analyses were performed for all analysis scenarios at the study area intersections
during the weekday morning (AM), and weekday afternoon (PM) peak hours. Synchro, version 11, was used to analyze
the study intersections with results based on the Transportation Research Board’s (TRB) Highway Capacity Manual
(HCM) methodology and analysis guidelines provided in VDOT’s Traffic Operations and Safety Analysis Manual (TOSAM)
(version 2). The analysis herein includes the level of service (LOS), delay, and queue length comparisons for the turning
movements analyzed.
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Analysis Results
2024 Existing Conditions
• Based on the capacity analysis of the 202 4 Existing Conditions, all approaches at all study intersections operate at an
acceptable level of service (LOS C or better) during the AM and PM peak hours.
• Based on the queueing analysis, all turning movements have 95th percentile queue lengths that are accommodated within
the available storage length of the turn bays.
2027 Future Conditions without Development
• Based on the capacity analysis of the 2027 Future Conditions without Development, all approaches at all study
intersections are expected to operate at an acceptable level of service during the AM and PM peak hours.
• Based on the queueing analysis, all turning movements have 95th percentile queue lengths that can be accommodated
within the available storage length of the turn bays.
2027 Future Conditions with Development
• The proposed development will consist of approximately 40 single-family detached units and 340 single-family attached
units, including townhouses or duplexes/small lot units, and is anticipated to generate approximately 203 new trips during
the AM peak hour, 242 new trips during the PM peak hour, and 2,974 new daily trips on a typical weekday. The
development is anticipated to be complete by 2027.
• Based on the capacity analysis of the 2027 Future Conditions with Development, all approaches at all study intersections
are expected to operate at an acceptable level of service during the AM and PM peak hours.
• Based on the queueing analysis, all turning movements have 95th percentile queue lengths that can be accommodated
within the available storage length of the turn bays.
Overall Conclusion
All study intersections operate at an acceptable level of service and queues with and without the addition of the proposed
development. Based on the capacity and queueing analysis results, the proposed development will not have a substantial impact
on the surrounding transportation and roadway network. Therefore, no improvements are recommended to mitigate the traffic
generated by the proposed development.
It is understood that the County is in the process of evaluating the future Virginia Route 37 in order to right -size its functionality
to future needs. The draft Proffer Statement for the Property includes right -of-way dedication for the future Virginia Route 37.
The Applicant shall reserve a portion of the Property that is 104 feet wide for the future Virginia Route 37 and dedicate right -of-
way that is consistent with the outcome of the County’s studies.
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Introduction
This report presents the findings of a Traffic Impact Analysis (TIA) conducted for the proposed Winchester East at Opequon
Creek development which is generally situated north of Senseny Road (US Route 657), west of Opequon Creek, and east of
Canyon Road in Frederick County, Virginia.
The Development site is currently vacant, and spans two parcels of land, totaling approximately 91.7 acres that can be identi fied
on Frederick County Maps with PIN #s 65 A 194B and 65 A 195. The Applicant is proposing to rezone the RA (Rural Area
District) parcels to RP (Residential Performance District) in order to construct approximately 40 single-family detached units and
340 single-family attached, including townhouses or duplexes/small lot units. The development is anticipated to be complete
and occupied by 2027.
Access to the site will be provided via one proposed full-movement entrance along Senseny Road, and one proposed full-
movement entrance at the future fourth leg connection at Senseny Glen Drive and Canyon Road.
The following tasks were completed as part of this study effort:
• Scoping discussions were held with VDOT and the County on the parameters of this study as well as any relevant
background information on July 23, 2024. A copy of the scoping document is included in Appendix A.
• Existing conditions were observed in the field to verify roadway geometry, pedestrian infrastructure, and traffic flow
characteristics.
• In order to determine the weekday morning and afternoon peak hour turning movement traffic volumes, turning movement
counts (TMC) traffic counts were conducted on Thursday, May 23, 2024, and on Tuesday, August 20, 2024.
• The 2027 Future Conditions without Development scenario was projected based on the existing traffic volumes, an
inherent growth rate to account for regional growth on the roadway network, approved background developments, and
roadway improvements.
• Proposed site traffic volumes were derived based on the methodology outlined in ITE ’s Trip Generation Manual, 11th
Edition, publication and were assigned to the road network based on the agreed-upon direction of approach discussed
during the aforementioned scoping meeting.
• The 2027 Future Conditions with Development scenario was projected based on the existing traffic volumes, regional
growth, approved background developments, roadway improvements, and plans for the proposed development.
• Intersection capacity and queueing analyses were performed at the study intersections for the 2024 Existing Conditions,
2027 Future Conditions without Development, and 2027 Future Conditions with Development scenarios during the
weekday morning (AM), and weekday afternoon (PM) peak hours.
• Intersection capacity and queuing analyses were performed using Synchro, version 11, with results based on the
Transportation Research Board’s (TRB) Highway Capacity Manual, Sixth Edition (HCM 6) methodology and in following
VDOT’s Traffic Operations and Safety Manual (TOSAM) (version 2).
Sources of data for this study include the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE), VDOT, and the office files and field
reconnaissance efforts of Gorove Slade.
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Background Information: Proposed Development (Site & Nearby)
Descriptions of the Existing Site
Site Location and Description of the Parcel
The proposed development is generally situated north of Senseny Road (Route 657), west of Opequon Creek, and east of
Canyon Road in Frederick County, Virginia. The proposed development consists of two parcels with the following Tax PIN #s:
65 A 194B and 65 A 195, totaling approximately 91.7 acres.
An aerial of the study vicinity of provided in Figure 1.
A description of the proposed development is provided in the Introduction section of this report.
Location within Jurisdiction and Region
The location of the site with respect to the surrounding area is presented in Figure 2.
Existing Zoning and Future Land-Use
The Site is currently zoned as RA (Rural Area District) and the Applicant is proposing to rezone it to RP (Residential Performance
District).
The existing zoning is presented in Figure 3.
Descriptions of Geographic Scope of Study and Limits of the Study Area
The geographic scope of the study area was developed in accordance with VDOT and the County. The vehicular study area
includes the following two existing intersections and one future intersection. The study intersections are as follows:
Intersection 1: Senseny Road (US Route 657) and Twinbrook Circle/Senseny Glen Drive [Existing full-movement,
unsignalized]
Intersection 2: Woodrow Road/Canyon Road and Channing Drive [Existing full-movement, unsignalized]
Intersection 3: Senseny Road (US Route 657) and Future Site Driveway [Future T-intersection, unsignalized]
Study intersection 3 will provide full movement access to the proposed development. In addition, Senseny Glen Drive will be
extended to the east of Canyon Road in order to provide full movement access to the development on the west frontage of the
site. The Senseny Glen Drive and Canyon Road intersection is not included in the capacity analysis that follows.
An aerial of the study intersections is provided in Figure 4.
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Figure 1: Site Location and Parcel Map
(Source: Frederick County Tax Mapper https://fredcogis.fcva.us/FrederickCountyGIS/)
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Figure 2: Regional Location
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Figure 3: Frederick County Zoning Map
(Zoning Source: https://fredcogis.fcva.us/PlanningAccessTerminal/)
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Figure 4: Study Intersections
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Analysis of 2024 Existing Conditions
Existing Roadway Network
A description of the major roadways within the study area is presented below in Table 1.
Table 1: Existing Roadway Network
Roadway RTE
#
VDOT
Classification Lanes Legal/Design Speed
Limit (mph)
AADT
(vpd) Road Segment Between: k-
factor
Senseny Road 657 Major Collector 2 45 2,200 736 Rossum Lane Clarke County 11.7%
Channing Drive 1554 Local 2-4 35 1,800 657 Senseny Road 659 Valley Mill Road -
Senseny Glen Drive 867 Local 2 25 1,000 657 Senseny Road 1407 Canyon Court -
Twinbrook Circle 867 Local 2 25 520 Dead End 657 Senseny Road -
Woodrow Road 1380 Local 2 25 740 1387 Dots Way 1554 Channing Drive -
Canyon Road 1407 Local 2 25 280 Dead End 657 Senseny Road -
Note: Based on VDOT Historical Traffic Data from 2021.
Existing Traffic Volumes
In order to determine the weekday morning (AM) and weekday afternoon (PM) peak hour turning movement traffic volumes,
turning movement counts (TMC) were collected at the study intersections on Thursday, May 23, 2024 (Study Intersection 1) and
on Tuesday, August 20, 2024 (Study Intersection 2). The referenced weekday turning movement counts were collected from the
hours of 5:30 AM to 8:30 AM and 3:00 PM to 6:00 PM:
• Study Intersection 1: Senseny Road (US Route 657) and Twinbrook Circle/Senseny Glen Drive
• Study Intersection 2: Woodrow Road/Canyon Road and Channing Drive
The TMCs at the study intersections were reviewed for consistency, and adjusted if needed, using existing TMCs for other
intersections along Senseny Road, including Senseny Road and Channing Drive.
From the turning movement counts, the following system peak hours were determined.
• AM Peak Hour: 7:15 AM to 8:15 AM
• PM Peak Hour: 4:15 PM to 5:15 PM
The 2024 existing road network configuration is presented in Figure 5. The existing AM and PM peak hour traffic volumes for
the existing study intersections are shown in Figure 6. The ADT volumes, depicted in Figure 6 and subsequent volume graphics,
were calculated based on VDOT published k-factors from 2021, if available, or assumed k-factors per approach of 0.10 and the
PM peak hour volumes. The raw existing traffic count data is provided in Appendix B.
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Figure 5: 2024 Existing Conditions – Roadway Network Geometric Configuration and Traffic Control Devices
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Figure 6: 2024 Existing Conditions – Peak Hour Vehicular Traffic Volumes
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Existing Intersection Capacity and Queueing Analysis
Intersection capacity and queuing analyses were performed for the 202 4 Existing Conditions scenario at the study area
intersections during AM and PM peak hours, in accordance with VDOT’s TOSAM (version 2) guidelines. Synchro, version 11,
was used to analyze the study intersections with results based on the Transportation Research Board’s (TRB) Highway Capacity
Manual (HCM) 6th Edition methodology and include the level of service (LOS), delay, and queue length comparisons for the
turning movements analyzed. Lane configurations at study intersections along the road network were field -verified, and the
existing traffic volumes discussed in the aforementioned section as well as other relevant data were entered into the analysi s
models.
For this analysis, the existing peak hour factors (PHF) utilized in the analysis of existing conditions were based on the tra ffic
count data collected and were modeled in the Synchro network on a by-intersection basis. PHF in the range of 0.85 to 1.00 was
used for the existing scenario, consistent with VDOT analysis guidelines. The heavy vehicle percentages (HV%) utilized per
movement were based on existing traffic count data for each lane group.
Per the scoping meeting with VDOT and the County staff, it would be considered acceptable to achieve an approach LOS C or
better for traffic operations, using HCM methodology. The results of the intersection capacity from Synchro are presented in
Table 2 and graphically in Figure 7. The results are expressed in LOS and delay (seconds per vehicle) for overall signalized/all-
way stop control intersections and per approach and lane group for all study intersections.
The 95th percentile queues were also determined from Synchro and are expressed in feet.
The description of different LOS and delays are included in Appendix C. The detailed analysis worksheets of 2024 Existing
Conditions are contained in Appendix D.
Table 2: 2024 Existing Conditions – Intersection Capacity Analysis Results
No. Intersection (Movement)
AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour
Effective Storage LOS Delay 95th % LOS Delay 95th %
Length (ft.) (sec/veh) Queue (ft.) (sec/veh) Queue
[1]
Synchro Synchro
1 Senseny Road (Rte 657) (E/W) at Twinbrook
Circle/Senseny Glen Drive (N/S)
Eastbound Approach A 0.6 A 2.1 Eastbound Left/Thru A 7.4 0 A 7.7 0
Eastbound Right 215 - - 0 - - 0
Westbound Approach A 0.0 A 0.5
Westbound Left/Thru A 0.0 0 A 7.5 0
Westbound Right 70 - - 0 - - 0
Northbound Approach B 10.8 B 11.8 Northbound Left/Thru/Right B 10.8 8 B 11.8 8
Southbound Approach A 9.4 A 9.6
Southbound Left/Thru/Right A 9.4 5 A 9.6 5
2 Woodrow Road/Canyon Road (E/W) at Channing Drive
(N/S)
Eastbound Approach B 11.9 B 13.1
Eastbound Left/Thru/Right B 11.9 13 B 13.1 13
Westbound Approach B 10.2 B 10.6 Westbound Left/Thru/Right B 10.2 10 B 10.6 10
Northbound Approach A 0.3 A 1.1 Northbound Left 175 A 7.5 0 A 7.7 0
Northbound Thru - - 0 - - 0
Northbound Right 135 - - 0 - - 0
Southbound Approach A 1.5 A 1.9 Southbound Left 190 A 7.6 3 A 7.7 3
Southbound Thru - - 0 - - 0
Southbound Right 120 - - 0 - - 0
NOTES:
[1] Effective storage length is based on the storage length plus one-half of the taper length per TOSAM guidelines.
Based on the capacity analysis, all approaches at all study intersections operate at an acceptable level of service during all peak
hours.
Based on the queuing analysis performed for the 2024 Existing Conditions, all turning movements at the study intersections
have 95th percentile queues that are accommodated within the available storage lengths of the turn bays.
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Figure 7: 2024 Existing Conditions – Level of Service Results
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Analysis of 2027 Future Conditions Without Development
For this study, the development is anticipated to be constructed by 2027; this scenario analyzes the future without development
conditions for the year 2027.
Future without Development Traffic Volumes
The derivation of future without development traffic volumes was based on assumptions and parameters discussed with VDOT
during the scoping process for this study. The future conditions include anticipated inherent regional growth, any potential
background developments around the vicinity of the site, and any anticipated roadway improvements.
Inherent Regional Growth
In order to account for the increased demand on the traffic network between 2024 and 2027, an inherent growth rate was applied
to future scenarios. This inherent growth was anticipated to account for regional development within the at-large area, which
would ultimately result in increased roadway demand. Furthermore, the inherent growth was anticipated to account for any
potential background developments unaccounted for within the vicinity of the study area.
As agreed, upon in the scope of this study, to account for 2027 future conditions, an inherent growth rate of 1.0%, (compounded
annually) over three years, between 2024 to 2027 (totaling 3.03% growth of the existing volumes) was applied to mainline
through movements at the intersection of Senseny Road and Senseny Glen Drive and at the intersection of Woodrow
Road/Canyon Road and Channing Drive.
The inherent regional growth volumes (for the period between 2024 and 2027) are illustrated in Figure 8.
Potential Transportation Improvements in the Study Area
Eastern Frederick County Transportation Study
Frederick County is currently studying transportation challenges and viable solutions for the area situated to the east of th e City
of Winchester. The purpose of this study is to identify and document specific transportation needs for the study area as well as
implementable transportation improvements. Acknowledging previous efforts to pursue a Route 37 bypass around Winchester,
a bypass will be considered during the conceptual solution development and analysis process. Related to the Winchester East
at Opequon Creek development, the preliminary alignment for the Route 37 bypass from previous studies shows a section of
the roadway running in the vicinity of the project site. However, the Eastern Frederick County Transportation Study is in its early
stages and no specific plans for the Route 37 bypass are expected before the Winchester East at Opequon Creek development
is complete in 2027.
Future Virginia Route 37
It is understood that the County is in the process of evaluating the future Virginia Route 37 in order to right -size its functionality
to future needs. The draft Proffer Statement for the Property includes right -of-way dedication for the future Virginia Route 37.
The Applicant shall reserve a portion of the Property that is 104 feet wide for the future Virginia Route 37 and dedicate rig ht-of-
way that is consistent with the outcome of the County’s studies.
Potential Background Development
In addition to the applied inherent regional growth reflecting increased regional traffic demand, background developments wit hin
the vicinity of the site, with their location depicted in Figure 9, were identified in the meeting with VDOT for inclusion in this study.
The background developments included are as follows:
Senseny Village
• Located generally south of Senseny Road (Route 657), north of Sulphur Springs Road (Route 655), and west of
Opequon Creek. The entirety of the property spans two parcels, totaling approximately 73.79 acres.
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• Based on design plan for the site, approved by Frederick County in January, 2022, the trip generation for the project
was calculated using a development program consisting of 108 single-family detached homes (ITE LUC 210) and 40
townhomes (ITE LUC 230), for a total of 148 residential units.
• When complete, this background development is expected to generate a total of approximately 95 net new trips during
the AM peak hour, 127 net new trips during the PM peak hour, and 1,216 net new daily trips during a typical weekday.
• As of August 2024, a large portion of the site has been already developed, and several homes have been occupied.
For this reason, it is assumed that 50% of the trips generated by this background development are being captured in
existing conditions, and the remaining 50% of the trips will be included as background traffic in the future conditions
scenarios.
• As part of the Senseny Village project, the eastbound approach at the Senseny Road (US Route 657) and Twinbrook
Circle/Senseny Glen Drive intersection was improved to include an exclusive right -turn lane into Twinbrook Circle. This
improvement has already been implemented and is considered in the existing conditions analysis scenario.
Rossum Crossing
• Located generally south of Senseny Road (Route 657), north of Mason Street, east of Broad Avenue, and west of
Rossum Lane. The entirety of the property spans one parcel, totaling approximately 1.94 acres.
• Based on site plan for the site, approved by Frederick County in January, 2022, the trip generation for the project was
calculated using a development program consisting of 18 townhomes (ITE LUC 230).
• When complete, this background development is expected to generate a total of approximately 4 net new trips during
the AM peak hour, 7 net new trips during the PM peak hour, and 82 net new daily trips during a typical weekday.
• There are no improvements at the study intersections that are associated with this background development.
Winchester Landing
• Located generally north of Senseny Road (Route 657), south of Farmington Boulevard, east of Greenwood Road
(Route 656), and west of Channing Drive. The entirety of the property spans one parcel, totaling approximately 33.61
acres.
• Based on site plan for the site, approved by Frederick County in July, 2022, the trip generation for the project was
calculated using a development program consisting of 40 single-family detached homes (ITE LUC 210), 81 single-
family attached homes/townhomes (ITE LUC 230), and 48 multi-family units (ITE LUC 221) for a total of 169 residential
units.
• When complete, this background development is expected to generate a total of approximately 78 net new trips during
the AM peak hour, 106 net new trips during the PM peak hour, and 1,184 net new daily trips during a typical weekday.
• As of August 2024, a large portion of the site has been already developed, and several single-family homes have been
occupied. For this reason, it is assumed that 50% of the trips generated by the single -family uses of this background
development are being captured in existing conditions, and the remaining 50% of the trips will be included as
background traffic in the future conditions scenarios. The multi-family buildings have not been constructed as of August
2024 so 100% of the trips generated by this use will be included as background traffic in the future conditions scenarios.
• There are no improvements at the study intersections that are associated with this background development.
To include the potential impacts of the background developments in future scenarios, the anticipated trips and roadway
improvements associated with these background developments were taken into consideration. The assignment of the total
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background trips to the road network is depicted in Figure 10. Additional information related to the background traffic impact
study is included in Appendix E.
Future without Development Traffic Volumes
In order to forecast future roadway traffic volumes for the year 2027, the 2024 existing traffic volumes were combined with t he
inherent regional growth traffic volumes, and background development traffic volumes. The 2027 Future without Development
traffic volumes are illustrated in Figure 11.
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Figure 8: Projected Inherent Regional Growth Traffic Volumes (2024 to 2027)
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Figure 9: Location of Background Development
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Figure 10: Background Development Traffic Assignment
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Figure 11: 2027 Future Conditions without Development – Peak Hour Vehicular Traffic Volumes
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Future without Development Intersection Capacity and Queuing Analysis
Intersection capacity and queueing analyses were performed for the 2027 Future Conditions without Development scenario at
the study area intersections during the AM and PM peak hours, in accordance with VDOT’s TOSAM (version 2) guidelines.
Synchro, version 11, was used to analyze the study intersections with results based on TRB’s HCM 6th Edition methodology and
include LOS, delay, and queue length comparisons for the turning movements analyzed.
For this analysis, the intersection PHF utilized in the analysis of future conditions was determined based on the 2024 existing
traffic counts, with a minimum of 0.92. The HV% were based on the existing traffic count data.
As mentioned previously, it would be considered acceptable to achieve an approach LOS C or better for traffic operations using
HCM methodology. The results of the intersection capacity and queuing analyses from Synchro are presented in Table 3 and
graphically in Figure 12. The results are expressed in LOS and delay (seconds per vehicle ) for overall signalized intersections
and per approach and lane group for all study intersections.
The 95th percentile queues were also determined from Synchro and are expressed in feet.
The detailed analysis worksheets of the 2027 Future Conditions without Development are contained in Appendix F.
Table 3: 2027 Future Conditions without Development – Intersection Capacity Analysis Results
No. Intersection (Movement)
AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour
Effective Storage LOS Delay 95th % LOS Delay 95th %
Length (ft.) (sec/veh) Queue (ft.) (sec/veh) Queue
[1]
Synchro Synchro
1 Senseny Road (Rte 657) (E/W) at Twinbrook
Circle/Senseny Glen Drive (N/S)
Eastbound Approach A 0.6 A 2.0
Eastbound Left/Thru A 7.4 0 A 7.8 0
Eastbound Right 215 - - 0 - - 0
Westbound Approach A 0.1 A 0.6
Westbound Left/Thru A 7.5 0 A 7.6 0
Westbound Right 70 - - 0 - - 0
Northbound Approach B 10.7 B 11.9
Northbound Left/Thru/Right B 10.7 8 B 11.9 8
Southbound Approach A 9.4 A 9.7
Southbound Left/Thru/Right A 9.4 5 A 9.7 5
2 Woodrow Road/Canyon Road (E/W) at Channing
Drive (N/S)
Eastbound Approach B 12.3 B 14.1
Eastbound Left/Thru/Right B 12.3 13 B 14.1 13
Westbound Approach B 10.4 B 11.0
Westbound Left/Thru/Right B 10.4 10 B 11.0 10
Northbound Approach A 0.3 A 1.0
Northbound Left 175 A 7.5 0 A 7.8 0
Northbound Thru - - 0 - - 0
Northbound Right 135 - - 0 - - 0
Southbound Approach A 1.4 A 1.6
Southbound Left 190 A 7.7 3 A 7.8 3
Southbound Thru - - 0 - - 0
Southbound Right 120 - - 0 - - 0
NOTES:
[1] Effective storage length is based on the storage length plus one-half of the taper length per TOSAM guidelines.
Based on the capacity analysis, all approaches at all study intersections operate at an acceptable level of service during all peak
hours.
Based on the queuing analysis performed for the 2027 Future Conditions without Development, all turning movements at the
study intersections have 95th percentile queues that can be accommodated within the available storage lengths of the turn bays.
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Figure 12: 2027 Future Conditions without Development – Level of Service Results
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Analysis of 2027 Future Conditions with Development
For this study, the Development is anticipated to be constructed by 2027 and this scenario analyzes the future with development
conditions for the year 2027.
Site Description
The Site is generally situated to the north of Senseny Road (Route 657), west of Opequon Creek, and east of Canyon Road in
Frederick County, Virginia. The proposed development consists of two parcels with the following Tax PIN #s: 65 A 194B and 65
A 195, totaling approximately 91.7 acres.
The Applicant is proposing to rezone the RA (Rural Area District) portion of the parcel to RP (Residential Performance District)
in order to construct approximately 40 single-family detached units and 340 single-family attached units, including townhouses
or duplexes/small lot units. The development is anticipated to be complete and in operation by 2027.
The Generalized Development Plan for the Site is illustrated in Figure 13.
Access to the site will be provided via one future full-movement entrance along Senseny Road and one future full-movement
entrance at the future fourth leg connection at Senseny Glen and Canyon Road.
Projected Site Trip Generation
In order to calculate the trips generated by the proposed development, the Institute of Transportation Engineers’ (ITE) Trip
Generation Manual, 11th Edition, the publication was used to determine the total trips going into and out of the subject study site
during the weekday AM and PM peak hours as well as the typical number of weekday daily trips. The projected trip generation
for the proposed development is depicted in Table 4. There is no internal capture and Pass-by allowance Reduction associated
with this site.
Table 4: Site Trip Generation (Peak Hour of the Adjacent Street; ITE 11th Ed.)
Land Use ITE
Code Size
------ W e e k d a y ------
AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour Daily
In Out Total In Out Total Total
Single-Family Detached Housing (EQUATIONS) 210 40 DU 8 24 32 26 16 42 434
Single-Family Attached Housing (EQUATIONS) 215 340 DU 43 128 171 118 82 200 2,540
Total 51 152 203 144 98 242 2,974
As illustrated in the table above, the site in total is expected to generate approximately 203 new trips during the AM peak hour,
242 new trips during the PM peak hour, and 2,974 new daily trips on a typical weekday.
Distribution and Assignment of Site Traffic
The distribution and assignment of the site-generated trips were based on the existing traffic patterns, engineering judgment,
and the nature of the proposed development, and determined with the guidance and input from VDOT and County staff. The
site direction of approach is illustrated in Figure 14.
Future with Development Traffic Volume
The 2027 future road network configuration is presented in Figure 15. In order to project future traffic volumes on the roadways
in the vicinity of the development, trips generated from the development were assigned to the road network based on the
previously mentioned direction of approach. The primary site traffic assignme nt is illustrated for the AM and PM peak hours in
Figure 16.
The 2027 Future with Development traffic volumes is illustrated in Figure 17.
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Figure 13: Generalized Development Plan
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Figure 14: Direction of Approach (Site Trip)
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Figure 15: 2027 Future Conditions with Development – Roadway Network Geometric Configuration and Traffic Control
Devices
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Figure 16: Site Generated Trip Assignment
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Figure 17: 2027 Future Conditions with Development – Peak Hour Vehicular Traffic Volumes
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Future with Development Intersection Capacity and Queuing Analysis
Intersection capacity and queuing analyses were performed for the 2027 Future Conditions with Development scenario at the
study area intersections during the AM and PM peak hours, in accordance with VDOT’s TOSAM (version 2) guidelines. Synchro,
version 11, was used to analyze the study intersections with results based on TRB’s HCM 6th Edition methodology and include
LOS, delay, and queue length comparisons for the turning movements analyzed.
For the purposes of this analysis, the intersection PHF utilized in the analysis of future conditions was determined based on the
2024 existing traffic counts, with a minimum of 0.92 as agreed to in the scoping document. The HV% were based on the existing
conditions scenario, with any new approaches based on the existing counts and the Site truck trip generation.
As mentioned previously, it would be considered acceptable to achieve an approach LOS C or better for traffic operations using
HCM methodology. The results of the intersection capacity and queuing analyses from Synchro are presented in Table 5 and
graphically in Figure 18. The results are expressed in LOS and delay (seconds per vehicle) for overall signalized in tersections
and per approach and lane group for all study intersections.
The 95th percentile queues were also determined from Synchro and are expressed in feet.
The detailed analysis worksheets of the 2027 Future Conditions with Development scenario are contained in Appendix G.
Table 5: 2027 Future Conditions with Development– Intersection Capacity Analysis Results
No. Intersection (Movement)
Effective
Storage
Length (ft.)
[1]
AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour
LOS Delay
(sec/veh)
95th %
Queue (ft.) LOS Delay
(sec/veh)
95th %
Queue (ft.)
Synchro Synchro
1 Senseny Road (Rte 657) (E/W) at Twinbrook
Cricle/Senseny Glen Drive (N/S)
Eastbound Approach A 0.5 A 1.5 Eastbound Left/Thru A 7.6 0 A 7.9 0
Eastbound Right 215 - - 0 - - 0
Westbound Approach A 0.1 A 0.5 Westbound Left/Thru A 7.6 0 A 7.7 0
Westbound Right 70 - - 0 - - 0
Northbound Approach B 11.7 B 13.4
Northbound Left/Thru/Right B 11.7 8 B 13.4 8
Southbound Approach B 10 B 10.2
Southbound Left/Thru/Right B 10 8 B 10.2 8
2 Woodrow Road/Canyon Road (E/W) at
Channing Drive (N/S)
Eastbound Approach B 13.9 C 17.4 Eastbound Left/Thru/Right B 13.9 23 C 17.4 23
Westbound Approach B 10.9 B 11.3 Westbound Left/Thru/Right B 10.9 13 B 11.3 13
Northbound Approach A 0.3 A 1
Northbound Left 175 A 7.5 0 A 7.8 0
Northbound Thru - - 0 - - 0
Northbound Right 135 - - 0 - - 0
Southbound Approach A 2.2 A 2.8
Southbound Left 190 A 7.7 3 A 7.9 3
Southbound Thru - - 0 - - 0
Southbound Right 120 - - 0 - - 0
3 Senseny Road (E/W) at Site Access
Eastbound Approach A 1 A 3.1
Eastbound Left/Thru A 7.4 3 A 7.9 5
Westbound Approach A 0 A 0
Westbound Thru/Right - - 0 - - 0
Southbound Approach A 9.5 B 10.4 Southbound Left/Right A 9.5 10 B 10.4 8
NOTES: [1] Effective storage length is based on the storage length plus one-half of the taper length per TOSAM guidelines.
Based on the capacity analysis of the 2027 Future Conditions with Development, all approaches at all study intersections are
expected to operate at an acceptable level of service during the AM and PM peak hours. With the proposed development, delays
increase by no more than 3.5 seconds on any of the movements at the study intersections.
Based on the queuing analysis performed for the 2027 Future Conditions with Development, all turning movements at the study
intersections have 95th percentile queues that can be accommodated within the available storage lengths of the turn bays.
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Therefore, no improvements are recommended to mitigate the traffic generated by the proposed development.
Figure 18: 2027 Future Conditions with Development – Level of Service Results
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Preliminary Left and Right Turn Lane Warrant Assessments
Left and right turn lane warrants are based on VDOT’s Road Design Manual (RDM), Appendix F. In order to determine the need
for exclusive left or right turn lanes at the site access along Senseny Road, the traffic data and anticipated development program
provided in the Analysis of 2027 Future Conditions with Development section were utilized. Additional graphics and information
regarding the methodology used to determine the turn lane warrants are provided in Appendix H.
Warrants for right‐turn storage lanes on two‐lane highways at intersections are based on Figure 3‐26 in Appendix F of VDOT’s
RDM. This figure provides a graphical representation for determining the necessity of a right turn lane by comparing the total
volumes of a given approach with their respective right turn volumes.
Warrants for left-turn storage lanes on two-lane highways at unsignalized intersections are based on Figure 3 -5 to Figure 3-21
in Appendix F of VDOT’s RDM. The figures provide graphical representations for determining the necessity of a left turn lane by
comparing the advancing volumes of a given approach and the respective opposing volumes with respect to the percentage of
left turning vehicles of the advancing volumes and the design speed of a given roadway.
Left Turn Lane Warrant Assessment
Table 6 shows that per VDOT RDM, a left turn lane is not warranted on the eastbound approach at the site access along Senseny
Road given the opposing volume, advancing volume , and the left turning volume for the 2027 Future with Development
conditions.
Table 6: Left Turn Lane Warrant Assessment Results (2027 Future Conditions with Development)
Input VDOT Calculated Thresholds
Study Scenario
Opposing
Vol.
(VPH)
Advancing
Vol.
(VPH)
Left
Turn Vol.
(VPH)
Left
Turn %
Minimum
Opposing
Threshold
(VPH)
VDOT RDM F
Figure Treatment
INT 3 - EBL - 2027 TF AM Peak 82 177 19 10.73% 765 Fig. 3-12 Not Warranted
INT 3 - EBL - 2027 TF PM Peak 213 169 55 32.54% 493 Fig. 3-15 Not Warranted
Right Turn Lane Warrant Assessment
Table 7 shows that per VDOT RDM, a right turn lane is not warranted on the westbound approach at the site access along
Senseny Road, given the right turning volume, approach volume , and the minimum right turn lane and taper thresholds.
Table 7: Right Turn Lane Warrant Assessment Results (2027 Future Conditions with Development)
Study Scenario Approach
Volume
Right Turn
Volume
Minimum Right Turn Taper
Threshold
Minimum Right Turn Full
Lane Threshold Treatment
INT 3 - WBR - TF (AM) 82 4 62 107 Not Warranted
INT 3 - WBR - TF (PM) 213 11 49 90 Not Warranted
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Access Management Assessment
The minimum spacing standards for the Commonwealth of Virginia are specified in VDOT’s Road Design Manual (RDM).
Appendix F of the RDM focuses primarily on access management practices. The minimum spacing standard is specified in Table
2-2 through Table 2-4. Table 2-2 provides guidance on the minimum spacing standard for commercial entrances, intersections,
and median crossovers, and is based on a roadway’s speed limit and functional classification.
Senseny Road in the vicinity of the proposed development is classified by VDOT as a major collector roadway. The speed limit
on the roadway segment in the vicinity of the study area is 45 mph.
The applicable intersection spacing requirements (centerline-to-centerline) per RDM Appendix F Table 2-2 are illustrated in
Table 8. This section evaluates the minimum spacing requirements at the proposed site. The proposed intersection spacings by
roadway are illustrated in Figure 19.
Table 8: VDOT Minimum Intersection Spacing Requirements for Commercial Entrances, Intersections, and Median
Crossovers (RDM, Appendix F, Table 2-2)
Figure 19 shows the intersection spacing requirements and the measured intersection spacing relative to the new access
proposed on Senseny Road.
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Figure 19: Proposed Intersection Spacing
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Impacts of Route 37 Connection
Before Connection
With the planned/required roadway connection between the Winchester East at Opequon Creek development and the existing
Senseny Glen and Twin Lakes neighborhoods, traffic interactions are expected but will shift over time. Initially, residents in
Winchester East commuting on Route 7 will tend to use Channing Drive and Valley Mill Road. A portion of these commuters
will travel through the Senseny Glen and Twin Lakes neighborhoods on Canyon Road. Additionally, other non-commute trips
will utilize Canyon Road to access Greenwood Mill Elementary School or visit neighbors within Senseny Glen, Twin Lakes,
and Sovereign Village. Combined, VDOT estimates that 45% of the trips from the 380 units in Winchester East would initially
use these routes, with 55% using Senseny Road to travel east or west.
Similar traffic interaction exists today between neighborhoods. For example, Twin Lakes residents on Heath Court may
choose to travel through Senseny Glen and past Whipp Court to go east on Senseny Road. Likewise, Senseny Glen residents
on Whipp Court heading north on Channing Drive may choose to use Canyon Road through Twin Lakes. The interconnection
between communities tends to distribute the traffic load more evenly, adding trips to some streets but removing trips from
others.
After Connection
Once the Route 37 connection is completed to Route 7, the commute trips from Winchester East would have a much shorter
and quicker path and most would no longer use Canyon Road. Travel to and from Greenwood Mill and neighboring
communities would, naturally, continue to use Canyon Road.
Traffic patterns in the adjacent communities would also tend to change with the Route 37 connection. Twin Lakes residents
would likely find travel to Route 7 through Winchester East to be quicker than Channing Drive to Valley Mill Road. The same
would hold true for a portion of Senseny Glen and Sovereign Village residents. Together, it is estimated that up to 60% of the
991 residences east of Charleton Road/Ladyslipper Drive in the adjacent communities would find the connection through
Winchester East to be the fastest path to Route 7, particularly for travel to the east.
Because the benefit to Winchester East residents would be seen for both eastbound or westbound travel, but the benefit to
adjacent communities would mostly apply to the east, the proportion of traffic redistributed from each area would differ. Thus,
the traffic volume added to Winchester East due to the Route 37 connection is anticipated to be only slightly higher than the
trips through Senseny Glen and Twin Lakes in the interim, even though many more homes are involved.
The connection through the proposed Winchester East development to future Route 37 will be a net benefit for residents of
Twin Lakes, Senseny Glen, and Sovereign Village, as it would reduce travel times for many more homes than the total number
of units in the proposed development.
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Conclusions
This report presents the findings of a Traffic Impact Analysis (TIA) conducted for the proposed Winchester East at Opequon
Creek development which is generally situated north of Senseny Road (Route 657), west of Opequon Creek, and east of Canyon
Road in Frederick County, Virginia.
The site is situated on two parcels that can be identified on Frederick County Tax Maps with the following Tax PIN #s: 65 A 194B
and 65 A 195. The property totals approximately 91.7 acres and is currently zoned as RA (Rural Area District).
The Applicant is proposing to rezone the parcel s to RP (Residential Performance District) in order to construct approximately 40
single-family detached units and 340 single-family attached units, including townhouses or duplexes/small lot units. The
development is anticipated to be complete and occupied by 2027.
Access to the site will be provided via one proposed full-movement entrance along Senseny Road, and one proposed full-
movement entrance at the future fourth leg connection at Senseny Glen Drive and Canyon Road .
Analysis Components
• 2024 existing peak hour volumes were derived via turning movement counts collected at intersections within the study
area on May 23, 2024 and August 20, 2024.
• The trip generation associated with the Site was based on the Institute of Transportation Engineers’ (ITE) Trip Generation
Manual, 11th Edition publication.
• Intersection capacity and queuing analyses were performed for all analysis scenarios at the study area intersections
during the weekday morning (AM), and weekday afternoon (PM) peak hours. Synchro, version 11, was used to analyze
the study intersections with results based on the Transportation Research Board’s (TRB) Highway Capacity Manual
(HCM) methodology and analysis guidelines provided in VDOT’s Traffic Operations and Safety Analysis Manual (TOSAM)
(version 2). The analysis herein includes the level of service (LOS), delay, and queue length comparisons for the turning
movements analyzed.
Analysis Results
2024 Existing Conditions
• Based on the capacity analysis of the 2024 Existing Conditions, all approaches at all study intersections operate at an
acceptable level of service (LOS C or better) during the AM and PM peak hours.
• Based on the queueing analysis, all turning movements have 95th percentile queue lengths that are accommodated within
the available storage length of the turn bays.
2027 Future Conditions without Development
• Based on the capacity analysis of the 2027 Future Conditions without Development, all approaches at all study intersections
are expected to operate at an acceptable level of service during the AM and PM peak hours.
• Based on the queueing analysis, all turning movements have 95 th percentile queue lengths that can be accommodated
within the available storage length of the turn bays.
2027 Future Conditions with Development
• The proposed development will consist of approximately 40 single-family detached units and 340 single-family attached
units, including townhouses and/or duplexes/small lot units, and is anticipated to generate approximately 203 new trips
during the AM peak hour, 242 new trips during the PM peak hour, and 2,974 new daily trips on a typical weekday. The
development is anticipated to be complete by 2027.
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• Based on the capacity analysis of the 2027 Future Conditions with Development, all approaches at all study intersections
are expected to operate at an acceptable level of service during the AM and PM peak hours.
• Based on the queueing analysis, all turning movements have 95 th percentile queue lengths that can be accommodated
within the available storage length of the turn bays.
• All study intersections operate at an acceptable level of service and queues with and without the addition of the proposed
development. Therefore, no mitigation measures were recommended.
Overall Conclusion
All study intersections operate at an acceptable level of service and queues with and without the addition of the proposed
development. Based on the capacity and queueing analysis results, the proposed development will not have a substantial impact
on the surrounding transportation and roadway network. Therefore, no improvements are recommended to mitigate the traffic
generated by the proposed development.
It is understood that the County is in the process of evaluating the future Virginia Route 37 in order to right -size its functionality
to future needs. The draft Proffer Statement for the Property includes right -of-way dedication for the future Virginia Route 37.
The Applicant shall reserve a portion of the Property that is 104 feet wide for the future Virginia Route 37 and dedicate rig ht-of-
way that is consistent with the outcome of the County’s studies.