HomeMy WebLinkAbout03-24 Comparative Impacts Snowden Phase 2 1
Comparative Fiscal Impacts on Frederick County in FY 2022
Snowden Bridge: Phase 2 and Phase 2 Alternative
The following analysis assesses the fiscal impacts of an alternative housing unit mix from the
one initially approved for Phase 2 of Snowden Bridge. This alternative unit mix maintains
the 1,232-housing unit total for Phase 2 but reduces the number of active adult units to be
built within a gated community from 740 units to 500 units and increases the number of
single-family detached and attached units by 240 units, apportioned proportionally
according to the distribution of attached and detached units in the original plan for Phase 2.
The resultant mix of units for this alternative is presented in Table 1.
Phase 2 and Phase 2 Alternative Household Profiles
As a result of the changed unit mix in the Phase 2 Alternative—a reduction of 240 active
adult and increase of 240 single-family units—the number of residents who will reside in
Phase 2’s 1,232 housing units and the number of school-age children are both increased;
active adult units have a smaller household size than non-age restricted units and do not
have any school-age children. As a result of this redistribution of 240 units, the population
base of Phase 2 would be increased from 2,895 to 3,232 or by 337 persons, for a 11.6 percent
gain overall, inclusive of 88 additional school-age children, from 182 to 270.
Table 1
Snowden Bridge: Phase 2 and Phase 2 Alternative
Estimated Population and School-Age Children1
________________________________________________________________________________
Number of Units/ Persons/ Total School-Age
Housing Type Unit Residents Children2
________________________________________________________________________________
Snowden 2
236 Single-family Detached 3.54 836 88
256 Single-family Attached 2.87 734 94
300 Active Adult (2100 sf) 1.85 555 0
440 Active Adult (1900 sf) 1.75 770 0
Totals: Snowden 2 2.35 2,895 182
Snowden 2 Alternative
351 Single-family Detached 3.54 1,243 131
381 Single-family Attached 2.87 1,093 139
203 Active Adult (2100sf) 1.85 376 0
297 Active Adult (1900sf) 1.75 520 0
Totals: Snowden 2 Alternative 2.62 3,232 270
________________________________________________________________________________
Sources: Frederick County Student Generation, County Planning; author
1resident population and households based on 100% occupancy.
2based on Frederick County countywide calculations by housing type.
2
The change in mix of housing units—240 fewer active adult and an increase of 115 single-
family detached and 125 single-family attached (townhouses)—will also affect the economic
impacts generated by this alternative as the value of the units being added is greater than
the active adult units being eliminated and, therefore, the tax base of the Phase 2 Alternative
would be greater than the initial Phase 2 proposal: $2,216,435.00 compared to
$1,489,071.00.
This higher value construction will have positive economic impacts during the construction
period to the benefit of Frederick County’s total economy, the generation of personal income,
and gains in the number of jobs supported during the construction period.
This shift in housing type—to larger and more expensive units—will increase the household
income profile of the Phase 2 Alternative compared to the initial Phase 2 housing mix
resulting in an increase in household spending power from $17.576 million annually to
$26.161 million annually, a gain of $8.585 million or 48.8 percent.
These occupancy and housing unit value differences resulting from the shift of 270 active
adult units to 270 single-family detached and attached units with 337 additional residents,
including 88 additional school-age students, are reflected in the fiscal impact of the Phase 2
Alternative., as shown in Table 2 below. In total, the Phase 2 Alternative has a positive fiscal
impact that is $27,799.06 smaller, - 2.1 percent, than the positive fiscal impact generated by
Phase 2’s initial land use mix with its 740 active adult units.
Table 2
Summary of the Fiscal Impacts of
Snowden Bridge Phase 2 and Phase 2 Alternative on Frederick County
(fiscal impacts in 2022$s)
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Fiscal Impacts Revenues - Expenditures = Net Impact
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Phase 2 $4,955,575.20 - $3,654,823.96 = + $1,300,751.24
Phase 2 Alternative $5,768,813.54 - $4,495,861.36 = + $1,272,952.18
Differences + $813,238.34 - + $841,037.40 = - $27,799.06
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Source: calculations by author
The full expenditure and revenue comparison for Phase 2 and the Phase 2 Alternative are
presented in Table 3. The residential uses of both Phase 2 and the Phase 2 Alternative
generate more county-level expenditure demand than county-based revenues with
expenditures for education being the largest single cost. Phase 2’s residential uses accounted
for a negative fiscal impact of $881,388.20 or a negative fiscal impact of $304.45 per capita
while Phase 2’s Alternative accounted for a negative fiscal impact of $909,247.26 or $281.32
per captia.
3
Phase 2 and the Phase 2 Alternative both include a non-residential component consisting of
250,000 square feet of commercial land use intended to house retail and office uses in
support of Snowden Bridge and nearby communities. When the fiscal impacts of the
residential and non-residential land uses are combined, both the Phase 2 and the Phase 2
Alternative present a positive fiscal impact: $1,300,751.24 and $1,272,892.18, respectively.
Table 3
Comparative Fiscal Impact on Frederick County in FY 2022
Snowden Bridge: Phase 2 and Phase 2 Alternative
(in 2022 dollars)
________________________________________________________________________________
Source Per capita Total
Fiscal Impacts Fiscal Impacts
________________________________________________________________________________
Snowden 2-Residential1
Expenditures $1,073.63 $3,108,163.10
Education $450.97 $1,305,562.40
Other Expenditures 622.66 1,802,600.70
Revenues $769.18 $2,226,774.90
Real Estate $514.36 $1,489,071.00
Other Sources 254.82 737,703.90
Net Fiscal Impact - $304.45 - $881,388.20
Snowden 2 Non-Residential2
Expenditures $499.69 $546,660.86
Revenues $2,494.33 $2,728,800.30
Real Estate $211.88 $231,800.00
Other Sources $2,282.45 $2,497,000.30
Net Fiscal Impact +$1,994.64 + $2,182,139.44
Snowden 2 Total Net Impact + $326.08 + $1,300,751.24
________________________________________________________________________________
Snowden 2-Residential3
Expenditures $1,221.92 $3,949,260.50
Education $599.26 $1,936,823.40
Other Expenditures $622.66 2,012,437,10
Revenues $940.60 $3,040,013.24
Real Estate $685.78 $2,216,435.00
Other Sources $254.82 833,578.24
Net Fiscal Impact - $281.32 - $909,247.26
Snowden 2 Non-Residential2 +$1,994.64 + $2,182,139.44
Snowden 2 Alternative Impact + $294.24 + $1,272,892.18
________________________________________________________________________________
Source: calculations by author.
1based on a resident population of 2,895, including 182 school-age children.
2based on 1,094 on-site jobs.
3based on a resident population of 3,232, including 270 school-age children.
4