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HomeMy WebLinkAbout03-24 Impact Analysis StatementIMPACT ANALYSIS PROFFER AMENDMENT #1 STEPHENSON VILLAGE FREDERICK COUNTY, VA DECEMBER 12, 2023 SUBMITTED BY: SNOWDEN BRIDGE HOLDINGS, L.L.C. BROOKFIELD STEPHENSON VILLAGE, L.L.C. 3201 JERMANTOWN ROAD, SUITE 150 FAIRFAX, VA 22030 CONTACT: SCOTT GOOKIN Scott.gookin@brookfieldpropertiesdevelopment.com Purpose of Report The purpose of this Impact Analysis is to identify the impacts of the proposed Proffer Amendment #1 on the following:  Surrounding properties  Transportation Infrastructure  Water & Sewer Infrastructure  Population  Stormwater Infrastructure  Environmental Features  Historic Structures  School Facilities  Public Parks and Recreation Facilities  Solid Waste Facilities  Emergency Service Facilities Additionally this report proposes specific and detailed mitigation strategies and measures to address those impacts and ensure mitigation strategies and measures are consistent with applicable law from the 2016/2019 proffer reforms including, but not limited to, Virginia Code 15.2-2303.4. Description of Original Rezoning Stephenson Village (a.k.a. Snowden Bridge) is a 795-acre residential planned community located in Frederick County, VA. The original rezoning #06-03, allowed for development of up to 2,465 residential units, and a minimum of 740 of those residential units (30% of total) are required to be age-restricted located generally along the southern boundary of the community. The project also provided a 20-acre school site, 24-acre park site and up to 250,000 sf of commercial/office (with 60,000 sf guaranteed). Roughly 250 acres of land was provided for open space. To date 1,233 residential units have been developed on the north half of the community by Brookfield Stephenson Village, L.L.C. (“Brookfield”). Development of the remaining 1,232 residential units started in early 2023 with delivery of first homes anticipated in first quarter of 2024. Both the school and park sites have been provided to the Board of Supervisors. Jordan Springs Elementary School opened in 2020. Well in excess of the minimum proffered requirements, Brookfield provided the Snowden Bridge Community Association (the master HOA) a robust package of amenities including miles of paved walking trails, a resort-style pool and water park, bathhouse, clubhouse and meeting space, two indoor tennis/basketball courts, two tot lots, dog park and picnic pavilion. In 2020, a 10,000 sf daycare facility, the Golden Path Academy, opened for business. Proposed Proffer Amendment #1 Proffer Amendment #1 has been submitted for review and requests the following generalized changes to the approved proffer statement. 1. Convert 240 age-restricted units to 240 non-restricted units. The proposed change is generally located in the southeast corner of the community and would change the minimum number of required age-restricted units from 740 to 500. 2. Move 26-acre commercial land bay from its location central to the project to the western boundary closer to existing commercial and industrial development. 3. Delete the requirement to provide 2,500 sf rent-free County office space in the proposed commercial area. 4. Delete the 1,200th unit trigger for development of the commercial area. This Impact Analysis is solely based on the changes outlined above. Surrounding Properties The project is generally surrounded to the north by the existing north half of the Snowden Bridge community, south by low density residential and farm land, east by Jordan Springs and west by developed and planned industrial parcels. The conversion of 240 age-restricted units to non-restricted units will have no additional impact to the surrounding areas. The proposed density and intensity of development is virtually the same as the original approved plan. Moving the commercial area to the western boundary will have a positive impact to adjacent industrial and commercial areas by consolidating similar land uses. Traffic Impacts A Phased Traffic Impact Analysis (TIA) for Stephenson Village was prepared by Patton, Harris, Rust and Associates in February 2003 for purposes of the original rezoning. The TIA assumed 2,793 residential units, a 550-student elementary school, 60,000 sf of office, 190,000 sf of commercial retail with full build-out by 2015 and an annual 5% increase of existing background traffic. According to Table 3 Phase 3 Stephenson Village Trip Generation Study (shown below), the residential portion of the site is expected to generate 21,002 vehicles per day at full build out. This is roughly equivalent to 7.5 vehicles per day per unit blended across the different unit types. More recently, Kittelson & Associates prepared a Technical Memorandum for Snowden Bridge Traffic Count Analysis dated 9/21/23 (attached in Appendix). According to the measured results, the average daily traffic on Snowden Bridge Boulevard in 2023 is 7,095 vehicles per day. The average daily traffic on Flyfoot Drive at the entrance to the Jordan Springs Elementary School is 2,269 vehicles per day. Frederick County Public Schools (FCPS) has stated that approximately half of the students at Jordan Springs Elementary School live in Snowden Bridge. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that approximately half of the school-related trips on Flyfoot Drive involve off-site students and contributed to trips on Snowden Bridge Boulevard. Not counting trips to the daycare center and subtracting out these off-site trips, the existing Snowden Bridge community is generating an average of 5,961 trips per day from a mix of approximately 1,200 non-restricted single-family detached homes and townhouses. Each unit is generating approximately 5 trips per day blended between the two non-restricted unit types. Projecting this through build-out, it appears the project will generate half the number of trips originally anticipated. Each product type has a unique vehicle trip generation rate. In general, age-restricted units are projected to generate 3.5 to 4 trips per day. Whereas, non-restricted single-family detached and attached units are projected to generate 8.7 to 10 trips per day. A case could be made that converting 240 age-restricted units to non-restricted units would generate 1,400 to 1,500 more trips per day. However, based on actual performance of the first half of the project, the residential portion of the project will never come close to reaching the volumes calculated in the original TIA. Therefore, changes proposed with Proffer Amendment #1 will have no additional impact to the existing and proposed traffic infrastructure. It is also important to note that the original TIA predicted that traffic volumes on Route 11 near I-81 would be 38,000 vehicles per day at full build-out in 2015. According to VDOT data, actual traffic volumes in 2023 for this section of road was 14,000 vehicles per day. Therefore, the projections from the TIA were grossly exaggerated compared to actual numbers. Water & Sewer Impacts Proffer Amendment #1 does not propose any changes to maximum residential unit count or square footage of commercial/office development. Therefore, changes proposed with Proffer Amendment #1 will have no additional impact to the existing and proposed water and sewer infrastructure. Population Proffer Amendment #1 does not propose any changes to maximum residential unit count or square footage of commercial/office development. Therefore, changes proposed with Proffer Amendment #1 will have no additional impact on number of homes in the area. The conversion of 240 age-restricted units to non-restricted will increase the number of public school students. That will specifically be covered in the School Facilities section of this report. Stormwater Impacts Proffer Amendment #1 does not propose any changes to maximum residential unit count, square footage of commercial/office development, densities or intensities of the project. Therefore, changes proposed with Proffer Amendment #1 will have no additional impact on stormwater facilities. Environmental Impacts Proffer Amendment #1 does not propose any changes to maximum residential unit count, square footage of commercial/office development, densities or intensities of the project. All of the environmental features have been protected with conservation easements that were recorded with the first half of the project. Therefore, changes proposed with Proffer Amendment #1 will have no additional impact on environmental features. Historical Structures Proffer Amendment #1 does not propose any changes to maximum residential unit count, square footage of commercial/office development, densities or intensities of the project. Therefore, changes proposed with Proffer Amendment #1 will have no additional impact on historical structures. School Facilities Snowden Bridge is located in the following school district attendance zones.  Jordan Springs Elementary School  James Wood Middle School  James Wood High School Proffer Amendment #1 proposes to convert 240 age-restricted units to 240 non-restricted units. The impact of this change using Frederick County School District generation rates estimates an additional 85 students as determined below. Students Based on Proposed Development Generation Product Lots Factor* Students Single Family 100 0.155 11.5 Townhome 140 0.188 26.3 Total ES Students 38 Single Family 100 0.091 9.1 Townhome 140 0.085 11.9 Total MS Students 21 Single Family 100 0.126 12.6 Townhome 140 0.093 13.0 Total HS Students 26 Total Students 85 Capacity of Existing Schools that serves the proposed project School Capacity Students 22-23 Utilization Available Capacity Jordan Springs ES 500 617 123% 0 James Wood MS 840 828 99% 12 James Wood HS 1,283* 1440 112% 0 *Capacity is planned to be increased to 1,527 with improvements scheduled for Summer 2025 completion. The Frederick County School District includes the following projects in the County’s Capital Improvement Plan. Year School Improvement Total Cost 2024-25 James Wood HS Renovation $73,600,000 2025-26 Jordan Springs ES Classroom Addition $3,700,000 2025-26 4th High School New $137,300,000 2026-27 Jordan Springs ES Gym Addition $1,657,124 Total $216,257,124 Based on a total of 13,875 students in the district, the total cost per student is $15,586 ($216,257,124 ÷ 13,875 students). Brookfield’s pro-rata share of these renovation costs based on the projected number of students being added by Proffer Amendment #1 is $1,324,800 or $5,520 per unit. Unit Type Mkt Rate Units Students Contribution per Student Contribution Per Unit Total Contribution SFD/TH 240 85 $15,586 $5,520 $1,324,800 Brookfield’s current proffer payment for non-restricted units mathematically satisfies its per unit pro-rata share of the renovation costs for the project number of students being added by Proffer Amendment #1. Therefore, current proffer payments for both age-restricted and non-restricted units are still applicable for the project. Public Parks and Recreational Facilities Proffer Amendment #1 does not propose any changes to maximum residential unit count. Therefore, changes proposed with Proffer Amendment #1 will have no additional impact on public parks in the area. Proffer Amendment #1 is proposing a second non-active adult recreation center for Snowden Bridge. The additional recreational center shall include a swimming pool, restroom and locker room facilities, an approximately 1,200 square foot fitness center, a multi-use court, and a tennis/pickleball court. Solid Waste Facilities Proffer Amendment #1 does not propose any changes to maximum residential unit count or square footage of commercial/office development. Therefore, changes proposed with Proffer Amendment #1 will have no additional impact on solid waste facilities in the area. Emergency Services Facilities Proffer Amendment #1 does not propose any changes to maximum residential unit count or square footage of commercial/office development. Therefore, changes proposed with Proffer Amendment #1 will have no additional impact on emergency services in the area. In fact, age- restricted communities historically require higher need for emergency services than non- restricted communities. Therefore, the conversion of units from age-restricted to non-restricted will reduce impacts. Summary of Fiscal Impact Studies Brookfield had two Fiscal Impact Studies prepared by Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D., Founding Director of The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at George Mason University. The first study contained a look- back analysis of how the first half of Snowden Bridge performed and also projects the impact of the remaining portion to be developed. Per the chart below, Phase 1 had a net negative impact of $2.2M on the County budget. However, Phase 2 development estimates a net positive impact of $1.3M. It is important to note that Phase 1 development included over $9M in cash proffer payments to date as well as dedication of a school site and a park site. This more than offset the negative impact from the first phase. Phase 2 as currently proffered will generate another $6M in estimated proffer payments as well as be cash positive for the County. The second study compares the impact of changes proposed in Proffer Amendment #1. Although the amendment generates additional costs associated with education, they are almost completely negated by higher anticipated revenue generated by the non-restricted residential units. Summary of Findings In summary, we find that current cash per unit proffers for age-restricted units (currently around $2,500 with CPI increases) and non-restricted units (currently around $8,000 with CPI increases) are still appropriate and adequately mitigate impacts to County facilities and the surrounding areas.