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Home My WebLink About02-23 Trip Generation Analysis Kittelson & Associates, Inc. Technical Memorandum May 31, 2023 Project# 29256 To: E. John Regan, Jr., The Christopher Companies 10461 White Granite Drive, Suite 250 Oakton, VA 22124 From: Chris Tiesler, PE, PTOE; Fatemeh Baratian, PE, PhD; John Callow CC: David McElhaney, PE – Urban, Ltd. RE: Jordan Springs Trip Generation Estimate JORDAN SPRINGS TRIP GENERATION ESTIMATE Kittelson & Associates, Inc. (Kittelson) prepared this memorandum to document the Trip Generation Estimates for the proposed Jordan Springs development in Frederick County, Virginia. The analyses conducted in this memorandum documents the trip generation estimate of the existing land use based on information provided by the project team and develops a trip generation estimate associated with the proposed development and Comprehensive Plan Amendment based on the proposed site details. Existing Conditions Most of the property (approximately 222.07 acres) is zoned RA (Rural Area District), and is currently undeveloped. RA zoning allows for a maximum density of one single-family dwelling (SFD) per five acres. This would equate to 44 SFDs. A small portion of the property (approximately 9.85 acres) is zoned B2 (General Business District). A wedding venue currently operates out of a SFD on this portion of the property. To estimate the number of trips for the wedding venue1 following assumptions are made:  The wedding venue only operates during evenings/weekends.  The maximum capacity is 200 people (guest plus employees working the wedding).  All of the wedding party and wedding guests will be in attendance at the ceremony. Therefore, the trip generation rate is based on the capacity of the area within the venue to be used for the ceremony.  The wedding party and vendors represent 10% of those attending the wedding and they arrive more than one hour before the ceremony.  The remaining 90% will arrive during the one-hour period before the ceremony.  Many of the wedding guests travel together as couples, families or groups of friends. Assume there will be 2 to 2.5 guests per vehicle.  Using the above factors gives a range of 0.27 to 0.33 for the trip generation factor as a function of the venue capacity.  Proposed development and Comprehensive Plan Amendment based on the proposed site details. During the week, the wedding venue residence is assumed to generate trips as an SFD. 1 Spack Consulting, Mike Spack, PT, PTOE. http://www.mikeontraffic.com/estimating-trip-generation-distribution-wedding- venue/. February 2018. 11480 Commerce Park Drive, Suite 230 Reston, VA 20191 P 703.885.8970 May 31, 2023 Page 2 Jordan Springs Trip Generation Estimate Kittelson & Associates, Inc. Proposed Conditions The proposed Jordan Springs development is located on north-west corner of the Jordan Springs Road and Woods Mill Road intersection, in Frederick County, Virginia. The development site is located roughly two miles from I-81, VA Route 11, and VA Route 7. The development assumes 450 active adult units (age- restricted), 250 independent living units, and 100 assisted living units. The access to the site will be provided on Jordan Springs Road and Woods Mill Road. Figure 1 illustrates a conceptual site plan of the development. Trip Generation Estimates Trip generation estimates for the existing by-right use and proposed development were developed using the standard reference Trip Generation, 11th Edition published by the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) and wedding venue assumptions detailed in a recent ITE Journal article. Table 1 shows the estimated trip generation potential of the existing by-right uses. As shown in Table 1, the existing developments are assumed to generate approximately 36 Weekday a.m. (9 in; 27 out), 47 Weekday p.m. (30 in; 17 out), and 159 Saturday Midday (98 in; 51 out) peak hour trips. Table 2 shows the estimated trip generation potential of the site when redeveloped for age-restricted housing uses. As shown in Table 2, the proposed development would be estimated to generate approximately 124 Weekday a.m. (52 in; 72 out), 180 Weekday p.m. (91 in; 89 out), and 201 Saturday Midday (104 in; 97 out) new peak hour trips. Table 3 calculates the net difference between the existing and proposed uses. The proposed amendment to the Comprehensive Plan to allow age-restricted development will result in a modest net increase in the trip generation potential of the site. Table 3 shows that the proposed development is estimated to increase the trip generation by a total of 88 Weekday a.m. (43 in; 45 out), 133 Weekday p.m. (61 in; 72 out), and 52 Saturday Midday (6 in; 46 out) net new peak hour trips as compared to existing/by-right zoning. Conclusion As shown, the proposed Comprehensive Plan Amendment to allow for age-restricted housing will result in a modest net increase in trip generation of the site as compared to existing/by-right zoning conditions. We trust this memorandum provides the necessary trip generation information in support of the Comprehensive Plan Amendment application. Please contact us at 571-384-2943 or ctiesler@kittelson.com should you have any questions. May 31, 2023 Page 3 Jordan Springs Trip Generation Estimate Kittelson & Associates, Inc. Figure 1. Conceptual Site Plan May 31, 2023 Page 4 Jordan Springs Trip Generation Estimate Kittelson & Associates, Inc. Table 1. Estimated Trip Generation for Existing Use Land Use ITE Code Units Weekday Daily Saturday Daily Peak Hour Adjacent Street Weekday AM Peak Hour Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour1 Total In Out Total In Out Total In Out Single-Family Detached Housing (222.07 AC - RA Zoning) 210 45 unit 484 443 36 9 27 47 30 17 48 26 22 Wedding Venue (9.85 AC - B2 Zoning) N/A -- -- N/A 101 -- -- -- -- -- -- 101 72 29 Total 484 544 36 9 27 47 30 17 159 98 51 1 ITE Trip generation rates are only available for Saturday during the peak hours of the generator and not the adjacent street. Table 2. Estimated Trip Generation for Proposed Development 11 LUC 253 uses Weekday Daily and Weekday PM for SAT Daily and Midday peak hour calculations (LUC does not have Saturday data). Table 3. Net New Trips Land Use Weekday Daily Saturday Daily Peak Hour Adjacent Street Weekday AM Peak Hour Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour Total In Out Total In Out Total In Out Net Increase / (Decrease) 1,661 1,389 88 43 45 133 61 72 52 6 46 Land Use ITE Code Units Weekday Daily Saturday Daily Peak Hour Adjacent Street Weekday AM Peak Hour Weekday PM Peak Hour Saturday Peak Hour Total In Out Total In Out Total In Out Senior Adult Housing - Multifamily 252 450 units 1,325 1,080 86 29 57 113 63 50 131 71 60 Congregate Care Facility1 253 250 units 560 560 20 12 8 43 21 22 43 21 22 Assisted Living 254 100 beds 260 293 18 11 7 24 7 17 27 12 15 Total 2,145 1,933 124 52 72 180 91 89 201 104 97