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PC 11-01-23 Work Session Agenda5:30 PM Work Session Call to Order Discussion Item(s) Planning Commission Discussion Regarding Residential Growth Staff will present information regarding current and previous approaches to planning for residential growth and evaluating residential rezoning applications. Included in the attachment is a PDF version of pages from the most recent version of our Urban Development Area (UDA) report which will likely be referenced in the presentation and ensuing discussion. In recognition of open meeting notification procedures, please be advised that the Board of Supervisors has been invited to attend the Work Session. Adjourn to Regular Meeting AGENDA PLANNING COMMISSION WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 2023 5:30 PM THE BOARD ROOM FREDERICK COUNTY ADMINISTRATION BUILDING WINCHESTER, VIRGINIA PC11-01-23UrbanDevelopmentAreaReport.pdf 1 Planning Commission Agenda Item Detail Meeting Date: November 1, 2023 Agenda Section: Discussion Item(s) Title: Planning Commission Discussion Regarding Residential Growth Attachments: PC11-01-23UrbanDevelopmentAreaReport.pdf 2 Vacant Land - No Approved GDPs 2,992 potential units based on permitted densities on 442 acres of vacant land Zoned Land - Approved GDPs 1,883 Units (maximum yield based on proffered densities) 488 Acres Master Development Planned Projects 5,942 Total residential lots/units planned 2,390 single family lots planned 1821 townhouse, duplex, multiplex lots/units planned 212 multi-family units planned 1,519 mixed units planned (Current Status) Residential Subdivisions Under Development - platted, vacant lots 2,882 Total residential lots/units available 1,596 single family-detached lots available 964 townhouse, duplex, multiplex lots available 322 multi-family units available Grand Total:13,699 approved, planned, or potential residential lots/units. 211 Single Family-Detached permits have been issued in 2023 within the UDA 50 Townhouse/Duplex/Multiplex permits have been issued in 2023 within the UDA 64 Apartments permits (units) have been issued in 2023 within the UDA 82%Percentage of all new residences constructed in 2023 where within the UDA Notes: 4,366 The number of lots planned within Age-Restricted communities 2,395 Vacant lots within Age-Restricted Communities Denotes an age-restricted community or component 5,485 737 Revised: 04/24/2023 The number of vacant lots within the R5 zoned residential communities in the western portion of Frederick County, outside the UDA. These communities (Lake Holiday, Shawneeland, and Mountain Falls Park) contain a total of 7,916 recorded lots. The number of vacant lots within Lake Frederick (formerly Shenandoah) development, which is located outside the Urban Development Area on the south side of Fairfax Pike; however, the proximity of the UDA will directly impact land development decisions in the county's development area. The MDP calls for 593 age-restricted and 1,537 traditional residential units in a community of 2,130 total residential units on 926.26 acres. URBAN DEVELOPMENT AREA (UDA) Residentially Zoned Development Information - vacant lot summary (Through September 2023) Frederick County, Virginia 3 Magisterial District Back Creek 0 Units Gainesboro 0 Units Opequon 123 Units on 12.39 Acres Red Bud 287 Units on 41 Acres Shawnee 2,078 Units on 315.77 Acres Stonewall 504 Units on 73 Acres TOTAL:2,992 Units on 442.30 Acres Note: These numbers are based on the 2006 UDA Study: Defined Planning Areas report Revised: 04/24/2023 Potential Residential Units RP & R4-zoned vacant land at permitted densities Undeveloped Land In The UDA That Is Zoned RP or R4 Vacant Land - No approved GDP or MDP Through September 2023 4 P.I.N.Owner Acres Permitted Density Maximum Units 75-A-89, 89A, 90, 91, 92, 94, 95, 96 Crosspointe Center 381.8 4.3 units/acre 1578 55-A-161, 165A, 166, 167, 167A, 168, 174A, 174B, 174D The Overlook 34.18 7.89 untis/acre 270 43-A-15B, 16 Russell-Glendobbin 67.73 0.96 units/acre 30 TOTALS:487.727 1883 Revised: 04/24/2023 Undeveloped Land In The UDA That Is Zoned RP and R4 With an Approved Rezoning GDP Through September 2023 Note: The number of units that could be developed on land within the Urban Development Area (UDA) reflects a worst case scenario based on permitted density. The Snowden Bridge project has a maximum proffered density of 3.1 units/acre, excluding affordable housing for the elderly. Development patterns, development trends, density controls for multi-family dwelling unit percentages and environmental constraints such as steep slopes and woodlands distrubance will reduce the number of dwelling units that are developed on this acreage. 5 P.I.N.Project Acres Approved Units Approved Density Planning Area Analysis Zone 86-A-78 Fairfax Downs 50.86 93 single family 1.83 units/acre Senseny/Eastern 64-A-10, 64-A- 12, 64-A-150 Heritige Commons 46.47 645 townhouses 13.8 units/acre Senseny/Eastern 55-A-201 Winchester Landing 33.61 40 single family 81 townhouses 40 multifamily 4.7 units/acre Senseny/Eastern 65-A-49B, 65-A-55 Senseny Village 73.79 107 single family 126 townhouses 3.86 units/acre Senseny/Eastern 44-A-292, 293 Snowden Bridge 285.4 914 single family 196 townhouses 124 multi-family 3.1 units/acre Northeast Frederick 44-A-31A Stephenson Village II 386.24 221 single family 433 townhouses 48 multifamily 1.8 units/acre Northeast Frederick 76-A-48A, 49 Tasker Woods 60.28 136 single family 130 townhouses 3.74 units/acre Southern Frederick 75-A-99A Villages at Artrip 169 172 single family 621 mixed units 4.7 units/acre Southern Frederick 52-A-50 Village at Orchard Ridge 131 898 mixed units 7.99 units/acre Round Hill Community 55-A-209, 210, 211, 212, 212A, Opequon Crossing 212.21 263 townhouses 445 single family 3.33 units/acre Senseny/Eastern 53-A-91, 63-A- 2A Willow Run 119.27 300 single family 2.51 units/acre West Jubal Early 55-2-2 Winchester Townhomes 8.45 43 townhouses 5.09 units/acre Senseny/Eastern TOTALS:12 project sites 1576.58 5,942 units Acres 2,390 single family 1,821 townhouses 212 multi-family 1,519 mixed units Notes: * Revised: 04/24/2023 Lake Frederick (formerly Shenandoah) is located outside of the Urban Development Area on the south side of Fairfax Pike; however, the proximity of this project to the UDA will directly impact land use and development decisions in the county's development area. The MDP has been approved for 2,130 total residential units, including 517 age-restricted d 1533 t i t d it 926 26 RP & R4 District Land In The UDA With An Approved Master Development Plan Through September 2023 *Orrick Commons replaced with Winchester Landing; Stephenson Village II added (2022) 6 SFA MD MH MF SFA MD MH MF SFA MD MH MF January 22 1 February 1 March April 7 1 1 1 May 1 1 June 1 July 5 2 2 August 11 September 5 October November December TOTAL 34 1 0 0 0 6 3 0 16 1 1 0 9 SFA MD MH MF SFA MD MH MF SFA MD MH MF January February 1 March 6 April 16 2 1 2 4 1 May 1 1 June 1 July 2 August 1 September 8 1 October November December TOTAL 24 0 6 1 0 0 3 0 10 0 4 0 SFA = Townhouse/Duplex/Multiplex MD = Modular MH = Mobile Home MF = Multi-Family (apartments)SFA MD MH MF 84 8 17 1 Revised: 04/24/2023 APPENDIX II 2023 Other Housing Type Building Permits Throughout Frederick County Back Creek 1 Gainesboro 2 Opequon 3 Red Bud Shawnee 4 Stonewall 5 2023 Count 110 7 2009 Count 83 SFA MD MH MF SFA MD MH MF SFA MD MH MF 47 7 44 1 61 13 57 1 33 4 34 12 2010 Count 89 SFA MD MH MF SFA MD MH MF SFA MD MH MF 110 44 78 1 172 44 72 0 54 7 28 0 2011 Count SFA MD MH MF SFA MD MH MF SFA MD MH MF 56 6 17 0 116 7 18 0 141 2013 Count 79 2007 Count 132 288 2014 Count 2006 Count 233 2008 Count 99 2005 Count 8 RA RP SC R4MTND R5 RA RP R4 R5 RA RP R4 R5 January 4 1 20 1 3 1 6 February 1 6 3 3 1 1 March 2 10 3 3 5 April 2 4 18 3 5 2 8 May 5 5 15 1 3 1 5 June 4 18 1 1 3 July 2 12 2 5 11 August 3 2 3 1 2 7 September 6 3 21 1 3 1 6 October November December TOTAL 29 15 0 123 12 28 0 0 3 6 1 0 52 RA RP R4 R5 RA RP R4 R5 RA RP R4 R5 January 6 2 1 1 February 9 4 2 March 12 5 5 April 1 13 2 2 May 33 8 3 1 June 5 1 2 1 July 5 2 August 13 5 1 September 18 3 1 October November December TOTAL 1 114 0 0 3 32 0 0 6 0 11 0 Zoning Districts: RA - Rural Areas RP - Residential Performance RA RP R4 R5 R4 - Residential Planned Community 73 162 134 67 R5 - Residential Recreational Community Revised: 04/24/2023 APPENDIX I RA RP R4 R5 RA RP R4 R5 RA RP R4 R5 196 335 0 215 129 144 8 116 53 135 27 57 2008 Count 272 2007 Count 397 2006 Count 746 436 2023 Single Family-Detached Building Permits 2023 Count Throughout Frederick County Back Creek 1 Gainesboro 2 Red Bud 9 Shawnee 4 Opequon 3 Stonewall 5 9 RA RP R4 R5 RA RP R4 R5 44 133 18 24 31 103 10 42 RA RP R4 R5 RA RP R4 R5 83 146 44 17 82 140 34 56 290 2013 Count 2014 Count 312 2010 Count 186219 2009 Count 10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Total lots Lake Holiday 2,746 Shawneeland 2,948 Wilde Acres 2,079 Shenandoah 2,130 TOTAL 9,903 Editor's Notes: Revised: 04/24/2023 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total APPENDIX IV Village at OR - 131 acres 2019 TOTAL: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 885 499 1,842 2023 TOTAL: 0 Vacant lots 8 2,063 737 1,580 1,393 3,681 6,222 Built lots 904 6 staff has felt it necessary to keep track of their progress. * The R5-zoned (Residential Recreational Community District) projects are located outside the UDA, but with its size and proximity, 0 MS ~ Medical Services District MS Zoning Districts Number of Building Permits issued per Month ~ 2019 Village at Orchard Ridge 18 83401313190 Number of Building Permits issued per Month ~ 2023 1 1 R5 Zoning Districts Lake Holiday Shawneeland 1 1 1 R5 ~ Residential Recreational Community Districts 5 Shenandoah Wilde Acres 6 2 4 1 55 3 8 11 11 1 1 1 3 1 1 11 11 Subdivision Name Housing Type(s)Total Units Acres Review Stage Autumn Glen Duplex / Multiplex 211 55.9 under construction Cedar Meadows Single Family- Small Lot 140 29.7 under construction Crosscreek Village Single Family- Small Lot 91 23.08 completed Crosspointe Center Mixed Use 200 unknown Rezoning Harvest Ridge Single Family- Small Lot 82 26.75 completed Orrick Commons Mixed Use 170 33.61 SDP Shenandoah Mixed Use 912 926.27 under construction Snowden Bridge *Mixed Use 739 unknown SDP Village at Orchard Ridge Mixed Use 1,048 131 under construction Westbury Commons Single Family- Small Lot 11 3.13 under construction Westminster-Canterbury Mixed Use 212 48.27 completed Winchester Landing Mixed Uses 169 33.6 under construction Willow Run ingle Family- Small Lo 300 unknown MDP Woodbrook Village Multiplex 81 19.59 completed TOTALS:4,366 1,203.08 Project Total lots Built lots Vacant lots Autumn Glenn 211 210 1 Cedar Meadows (MDP) 140 129 11 Crosscreek Village 91 91 0 Crosspointe Center (MDP)200 0 200 Harvest Ridge 82 72 10 Orrick Commons (MDP)170 0 170 Shenandoah 912 817 95 Snowden Bridge * 739 0 739 Village at Orchard Ridge 1048 290 758 Westbury Commons 11 10 1 Westminster-Canterbury 212 212 0 Winchester Landing 169 59 110 Willow Run** (MDP)300 0 300 Woodbrook Village 81 81 0 TOTAL 4366 1971 2395 Editor's Notes: Revised: 04/24/2023 APPENDIX V **The Willow Run Rezoning requires the percentage of age-restricted housing to be between 10%and 40%of the unit cap of 1,390.This equates to a minimum of 139 units and a maximum of 556 units within the project. The minimum of 10% is represented in the above charts. Age-Restricted Residential Development Within Frederick County Through September 2023 *The Snowden Bridge Rezoning requires the percentage of active adult housing to be between 30%and 53%of the unit cap of 2,465.this excludes any affordable housing for the elderly.This equates to a minimum of 739 units and a maximum of 1,306 units within the project,plus any affordable age-restricted units. The minimum of 30% is represented in the above charts. 12