Loading...
CPPC 04-12-21 Meeting Agenda1.Comprehensive Plan Update 1.A.Comprehensive Plan Update The CPPC will review: A. The Plan (Draft Section Review - Part 2) – Section II – Rural Areas, Section III – Residential Development, and Section VII – Natural Resources. B. Appendix II – Economic Analysis 2.Other AGENDA COMPREHENSIVE PLANS AND PROGRAMS COMMITTEE MONDAY, APRIL 12, 2021 7:00 PM FIRST-FLOOR CONFERENCE ROOM FREDERICK COUNTY ADMINISTRATION BUILDING WINCHESTER, VIRGINIA CPPC04-12-21ComprehensivePlanUpdatePart2.pdf 1 Comprehensive Plans and Programs Committee Agenda Item Detail Meeting Date: April 12, 2021 Agenda Section: Comprehensive Plan Update Title: Comprehensive Plan Update Attachments: CPPC04-12-21ComprehensivePlanUpdatePart2.pdf 2 2 Item 1 - Comprehensive Plan Update (Part 2) At the April 2021 meeting, the Comprehensive Plans and Programs Committee (CPPC) will continue working on the update to the 2035 Comprehensive Plan. The current 2035 Comprehensive Plan was adopted in January of 2017. The Code of Virginia requires localities to review and update their plan every five years; therefore, the updated Plan would need to be adopted by January of 2022. Due to the size of the document and the two appendices, the updates are planned to be sent in blocks over the next few months to ensure adequate time for committee members to review the materials prior to each scheduled meeting. At the CPPC’s March meeting, Part 1 of the update was discussed (The Plan: Purpose of the Plan, Core Values, Code of Virginia, Implementing the Plan, Supporting Planning Documents, Comprehensive Plan Amendments and Section I - Urban Areas) and Appendix II (Historical Background, Geography and Demographics). Please find attached the following sections for the Part 2 review: 1. The Plan (Draft Section Review - Part 2) – Section II – Rural Areas, Section III – Residential Development, and Section VII Natural Resources 2. Appendix II –Economic Analysis The attached documents show the existing Plan with the proposed changes (with additions shown in red and deletions in strikethrough. Staff is seeking comments and recommendations from the CPPC on the attached sections. Please contact staff if you have any questions or need additional information. 3 RURAL AREAS THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 10 II. RURAL AREAS 4 RURAL AREAS THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 11 RURAL AREAS CURRENT CONDITIONS Frederick County’s Rural Areas provide places for agriculture, forestry, protection and preservation of natural resources, and tourism. The Rural Areas best exhibit the nature, beauty, view sheds, and tranquility for which Frederick County is known. The primary land uses in the Rural Areas are agricultural and forestal operations. The rural areas of the County encompass a significant portion of our land area. Most of Frederick County’s land area is rural in character. Of the County’s 266,000 acres, approximately 243,000 acres are rural and located primarily west of Interstate 81. The remaining acreage comprises the Urban Development Area (UDA) Sewer and Water Service Area (SWSA) where the majority of the County’s future growth is planned. residential, commercial, and industrial development is focused. Agriculture In 2017, the Federal Census of Agriculture identified 762 farms in Frederick County, with a total of 109,907 acres or approximately 41 percent of the land in the County. From 2012 to 2017, the total acreage in Frederick County farms grew by over 9,000 acres. This 9% growth in overall acreage may represent a real increase or it may be an effect of more persons reporting on their farm acreage. Forestry is another important component of the County’s agricultural economy. Managed well and logged in a sustainable manner, tree farms provide a renewable resource for income to landowners, taxes to the County, and timber products for many other users. Trees and forests provide many natural resource benefits prior to and after harvesting. The Agriculture Census showed the total percentage of land in farms comprised of woodland use as of 2017 to be 25 percent. Residential Development The Rural Areas of the County have traditionally seen about 30% of the County’s new residential growth. With the exception of the County’s Rural Community Centers, further defined later in the chapter, the predominant new residential development pattern has been five (5) acre lots or two (2) acre clustered lots with dedicated preservation tracts (discussed further below). It should also be noted that the band of prime agricultural soil which runs north-south west of Interstate 81 is the same area where a majority of new rural residential growth has been experienced. The handling of wastewater is a key differentiating feature for development in the rural areas. Residential uses in the rural areas are served by both of which are served by individual onsite sewage disposal systems and wells. The County encourages residential development in the Urban Areas where services and utilities are available and where such development will not conflict with agricultural and forestal uses, conservation efforts for natural resources and other objectives for the Rural Area. It is the County’s policy that public infrastructure will be centralized in the Urban Areas. Minimizing the extension of public water and sewer infrastructure helps avoid more intense development within the Rural Area. 5 RURAL AREAS THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 12 Within the Rural Areas of the County there are several established village-type developments called Rural Community Centers. There are currently twelve identified Rural Community Centers. These are: GORE REYNOLDS STORE GAINESBORO ROUND HILL ARMEL SHAWNEELAND/NORTH MOUNTAIN STAR TANNERY WHITACRE/CROSS JUNCTION ALBIN CLEARBROOK/BRUCETOWN STEPHENSON WHITEHALL These centers consist of small lot residences and commercial uses typical of a village. The Rural Areas Subcommittee recommended studying private utility systems to serve these Communities. In addition, Four of the existing centers have been identified as potential receiving areas for the Transfer of Development Rights Program. TDRs. There are currently no public water and sewer services available utility services in these communities and therefore, the use of private utility systems would need to be investigated to facilitate future growth in these communities. Of the Rural Communities, Round Hill, has a small area had plan developed which incorporates the community village area and commercial uses adjacent to U.S. 50, west of its interchange with the Route 37 By-Pass (see Appendix II – Area Plans). Land Conservation Tools and Trends Private property owners and farmers are truly the key land stewards in the County. These landowners have actively participated in voluntary preservation and land management programs through State, County, and non-profit organizations over the years. Approximately 22,800 acres of the County’s land is currently in some form of conservation easement or land protection program. Also, the George Washington National Forest comprises over 8,000 acres in Frederick County. Overall, approximately 30,800 acres or 12 percent of the County’s area is protected in some fashion. Some of the management tools and incentives for the preservation of agricultural opportunities, and environmental resources are zoning and subdivision regulations, land use taxation, permanent conservation easements, purchase of development rights, transfer of development rights and Agricultural and Forestal Districts, each of which is discussed below. To deal with increasing development pressures in the Rural Areas over the last decade, the Board of Supervisors established the Rural Areas Subcommittee in 2008. This Committee was tasked with identifying growth and development trends and related issues in the Rural Areas of the County, gathering ideas to address those issues and forwarding a recommendation for resolution. The Committee’s final report, The Rural Areas Report and Recommendations was adopted by the Board of Supervisors on April 22, 2009 as a policy component of the Comprehensive Plan. One of the recommendations contained within the report was the creation of a Transfer of Development Rights (TDR) Program. The TDR Program joined other existing land use tools available to rural landowners to preserve land in the Rural Areas, including: • Land use taxation (local) 6 RURAL AREAS THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 13 • Conservation easements (non-profit) • Purchasable development rights (public) Zoning and Subdivision Regulations The Zoning and Subdivision Ordinance regulates the form of residential development seen in the rural areas today. The regulations are designed to assist in the protection and preservation of the agricultural uses and to mitigate land use conflicts between agricultural uses and appropriately limited residential development. The Zoning Ordinance takes two different approaches for subdividing land for rural development: traditional five acre lots or rural preservation (cluster) subdivisions. Both options have residential density of one house per five acres, but the preservation option allow lots as small as two acres while the remainder is conserved in a larger tract that could be utilized for agricultural purposes. Use Value Assessment and Taxation Program The Use Value Assessment and Taxation Program uses discounts in property tax assessments to promote and preserve agricultural, forestal, horticultural and open space lands. Use Value Assessment (also commonly known as “land use” or “land use assessment”) is a state-guided program that allows localities to tax farmland and open space land at its “use” value rather than its fair market value. This program typically reduces the real estate tax on the land by a significant amount, thus making it easier to continue a farming business. The program is voluntary to the landowner and requires only five acres to qualify under open space classification or 20 acres under the forest use classification. Rollback taxes must be paid when the property is removed from the program. Conservation Easements and Purchase of Development Rights A conservation easement is a legal agreement between a landowner and a government and a land trust or government agency that limits the use of the land by recording deed restrictions that prohibit or severely restrict further development to protect the conservation value of the property, such as farmland, watersheds, wildlife habitat, forests and/or historical lands. Each easement is unique in terms of acreage, description, use restrictions and duration. These details are negotiated between the property owner granting the easement, and the organization that will be holding the easement. Conservation easements are typically established in perpetuity but may be established for shorter periods. The easement allows a property owner to continue to own any underlying interest in the land that is not specifically limited by the easement, to use the land within the terms and restrictions of the easement, and to sell the land or pass it on to heirs (with the easement restrictions conveying with the land). Conservation easements do not permit public access unless specifically provided. Conservation easements may be established through purchase, lease (short term), or through donation. In these easement programs, the easement is established through the voluntary cooperation or initiative of the landowner. When conservation easements are purchased as part of a broad government program, it is typically called “Purchase of Development Rights” or PDR. Purchasing “development rights” is the same as purchasing conservation easements or that portion of the “bundle of rights” that allows landowners to construct dwellings or non-farm commercial 7 RURAL AREAS THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 14 structures on the property. Thus, when a locality purchases a conservation easement from a landowner, it essentially “buys” the right to develop the land and “retires” that right by placing a permanent conservation easement on the property that restricts or prohibits further non-farm development. Typically, these easement restrictions run in perpetuity. Transfer of Development Rights In 2010, Frederick County adopted a Transfer of Development Rights (TDR) program which allows for dwelling unit rights to be transferred from qualified parcels located in the rural areas to designated properties within the Urban Development Areas. This policy tool provides landowners within the rural areas the ability to obtain development value from their land of their farmland without having to subdivide and sell the land. The density rights from the land can be severed and utilized within the Urban Development Area where community facilities and public services can be provided more efficiently. Agricultural and Forestal Districts Frederick County currently has eight Districts covering approximately 12,300 acres. Agricultural and Forestal Districts are voluntary rural protection zones that were established by the Commonwealth (Virginia Code § 15.2-4301), to conserve land for the production of agricultural products, timber, and the maintenance of open space as an important economic and environmental resource. By establishing a District and agreeing to continue using the property for qualifying agricultural uses, the locality and State in return agree to protect and enhance the land and not take any actions that would have a negative effect on agriculture or forestry during the term of the District. Historically, the County has taken great care to allow residential land to co-exist with agriculture uses. Tools implemented by the County in recent years include buffering, clustering, and the promotion of Agricultural and Forestal Districts. All of these provide protections to both homeowners and farmers and enable equal use and enjoyment of the Rural Areas. 8 RURAL AREAS THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 15 MAPS: 1. CONSERVATION EASEMENT MAP 2. TDR MAP 3. AGRICULTURAL AND FORESTAL DISTRICT MAP 9 RURAL AREAS THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 16 FOCUS FOR THE FUTURE Agriculture, forestry and conservation play an important role in the environment, heritage and economy of Frederick County. Frederick County has a recognizable Rural Area where agricultural operations are promoted, natural resources are respected, and its beauty and heritage are preserved. While the County’s agriculture industry is likely to evolve into operations of a very different scale and intensity than currently seen, the County should continue to support and encourage these operations. encourage new land uses in the Rural Area, including supportive uses for agriculture. Policies and ordinance changes should be considered to promote the County’s preferred uses for the Rural Area, including supportive uses for agriculture, historic preservation, tourism, and strengthening land conservation initiatives. The Agribusiness section of the Business Development Chapter further promotes the evolution of agriculture in the County’s Rural Areas. The Rural Community Centers are focal points for the Rural Areas and should be examined to accommodate future residential growth. Small area plans for these communities should be studied and created, and approaches for water and sewer needs should be investigated. Rural Community Centers will continue to play a role as focal points for the Rural Areas, and small area land use plans for the centers should be created. Additionally, other types of rural residential development should take on patterns similar to these centers. The natural landscape should be used as the background of development with a greater emphasis placed on conservation design for growth within the rural areas. The inclusion of new recreational opportunities and the growth of existing ones within the rural areas are also encouraged. COMMUNITY BENEFITS The Rural Areas of the County provide benefits to the community in a number of ways. These areas not only contribute to the identity of Frederick County, they provide jobs, recreation and a way of life. Preserving and protecting the rural areas of Frederick County is important not only to ensure the economic viability of agricultural and forestal operations but to also guarantee that those lands are present for the use and enjoyment of future generations. GOALS/STRATEGIES GOAL: DIRECT NEW RESIDENTIAL GROWTH AWAY FROM THE RURAL AREAS, AND CLUSTER RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT THAT DOES OCCUR TO FURTHER HELP PRESERVE AGRULTURAL LAND. STRATEGIES: • New residential development should continue to be directed into the Urban Areas. • Preserve the desired physical characteristics of the Rural Areas. Avoid prime soils, minimize land disturbance and grading, and minimize drainage changes. • Maintain transition areas between radically different uses, most importantly, between the Rural and Urban Areas. • Avoid, as applicable, Sensitive Natural Areas, Historic Districts, sending TDR areas, Recreational Overlays, and Agricultural and Forestal Districts. 10 RURAL AREAS THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 17 • Continue helping property owners find ways to keep properties intact rather than subdividing. GOAL: SUPPORT THE GROWTH OF THE COUNTY’S RURAL COMMUNITIES. STRATEGIES: • Further define the boundaries for each Rural Community Center and small area land use plans for each center. These centers should remain the focal point of the rural community and their character and scale should be preserved. • Plan for improved services within the neighborhood centers (wastewater treatment, package treatment, fire and rescue, and satellite County offices, library). • Encourage appropriate mixes of residential, commercial and business uses within the Rural Community Centers. GOAL: SUPPORT VOLUNTARY LAND PRESERVATION TOOLS AND THE LAND USE TAX DEFERRAL PROGRAM STRATEGIES: • Support the Conservation Easement Authority (CEA) and the Purchase of Development Rights (PDR) program. • Support the Transfer of Development Rights (TDR) Program, the Land Use Tax Deferral Program, and encourage growth of the County’s Agricultural and Forestal Districts. and Purchase of Development Rights (PDR) programs, among others. • Promote the use of conservation easements and support the Conservation Easement Authority through the County’s Purchase of Development Rights Program. • Participate in state grant programs to the greatest extent possible. • Follow changes to state code that would enable new land preservation tools. • Continue to support the work of conservation organizations in establishing and holding conservation easements and extinguishing residential development potential. GOAL: SUPPORT AGRICULTURAL OPERATIONS AND RURAL RECREATION STRATEGIES: • Support the agricultural economy in Frederick County and adapt to evolving practices and new agricultural opportunities. • Encourage conservation options that retain continuous land areas for agricultural uses; focus should be placed on areas with prime agricultural soils. 11 RURAL AREAS THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 18 • Continue to investigate value added activities and uses on farms that are a logical extension of the agricultural use. • Identify and support local, regional, and national rural recreation opportunities within the County’s Rural Areas. 12 RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 16 III. RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT 13 RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 17 RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT CURRENT CONDITIONS Over the past two decades, the amount of residential development in Frederick County has continued to increase increased at a relatively consistent rate of approximately three (3) percent a year. Supporting this growth was a period of significant expansion in the County’s commercial and industrial base. According to the 2010 Census and more recent studies performed by the Economic Development Authority (EDA), Frederick County remains primarily an in-commute location. However, This Plan also acknowledges Frederick County is also home to a large population of residents that commute out of the County for employment. One of the contributors to the County’s The main contributor to the population growth was the migration of people inside the Washington Metropolitan Statistical Area (WMSA) to Frederick County for a higher quality of life including lower housing costs and a lower tax rate. Frederick County, because of its location and excellent access to Northern Virginia and Washington, DC, has become a place of choice to live for those commuters. Frederick County has also become an attractive place to live for retirees. Frederick County’s housing stock includes a variety of homes in both suburban and rural settings. Residential opportunities exist in both the County’s Urban and Rural Areas. In recent years Frederick County has seen approximately two thirds of its new residential growth constructed in the Urban Development Area (UDA) and one third in the Rural Areas, including the Residential Recreational Communities (such as Lake Holiday, Lake Frederick, and Shawneeland). The Rural Areas are home to the agricultural, forestal and open spaces of the County. Within the rural areas, the predominant types of residential unit are single family dwellings with a density of one house per five acres. In addition to the traditional five acres lots seen in the past, dwellings at the same density can be clustered using a two-acre lot size with the remainder being preserved through a 60% preservation tract. Older The County also has a number of historic Rural Community Centers where residential uses are clustered. historic rural communities also exist throughout the rural areas and are typically found within one of the County’s Rural Community Centers. These rural community centers typically have smaller lot sizes, higher densities and some commercial uses. Residential developments located in the Rural Areas, including Rural Community Centers are typically on private individual water and sewer systems. The Urban Development Area (UDA) is the portion of the County which has been identified as the area where more intensive forms of residential development will occur and to accommodate the anticipated residential growth within the Community. While the UDA currently consists of primarily suburban residential types of development, with some multifamily and retirement units, particular areas have been identified to it is planned to accommodate a more intensive mix of land uses and residential housing opportunities. The UDA is designed to accommodate increased residential densities because it is adjacent to or in the near proximity to the necessary infrastructure and public facilities. These facilities 14 RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 18 include , such as public water and sewer, schools, emergency services, and a transportation network more capable of handling the increased trips from higher density residential uses. To further encourage residential development in the Urban rather than Rural Areas, the County adopted a Transfer of Development Rights Program (TDR) in the spring of 2010. More information on the County’s TDR Program can be found in the Rural Areas chapter of this Plan. FOCUS FOR THE FUTURE Future Residential growth in Frederick County is anticipated to continue increasing and expand. The County must ensure that land use policies are established to adequately direct and shape that growth. While new residential growth is expected in both the Rural and the Urban Areas, new residential growth should be focused primarily within the Urban Development Area (UDA) which is better suited to meet the needs of these new residences. The County should continue to establish policies which result in attractive and welcoming residential neighborhoods which are able to accommodate a growing population. and expanding workforce. The County should strive to offer a variety of neighborhood and housing choices to attract younger populations that would help support a diverse and skilled workforce for the County. It is also important that housing opportunities be available to all household types and income categories. Such residential development should be comprised of a mixture of housing types and lot sizes to provide options for a range of lifestyles and incomes, such as retiree’s, millennials and younger families. The land use policies of the Urban Areas will further guide this residential development and community growth. COMMUNITY BENEFITS Proactive planning efforts are essential in both the Urban and Rural Areas to ensure that the County is able to deal with its future residential growth in a cost-effective and attractive manner. Proper planning and land use policies enable the County to identify where future residential growth should be accommodated. It enables the County to plan for and provide infrastructure and services in defined areas where they can reach the majority of the population. By directing growth and services to the urban areas, the County can develop community facilities that become focal points to the residential areas. GOALS/STRATEGIES GOAL: NEW RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FOCUSED WITHIN THE URBAN DEVELOPMENT AREA (UDA). STRATEGIES: • Guide new residential development to areas that are served by public utilities, access to transportation networks able to serve higher intensities, employment areas, schools, recreation facilities and shopping facilities. 15 RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 19 • The Urban Development Area should allow for housing that will meet the needs of first-time buyers, retiree’s, move-up residences, and seniors. • Higher density residential development is encouraged in close proximity to or mixed with commercial areas to enhance walkable access to employment, shopping, and entertainment. The County’s strategic growth areas, the Urban Centers and Neighborhood Villages, are the most desirable locations for this type of development. • Continue to monitor the supply of land designated and zoned for residential use in the Urban Areas to ensure adequate capacity for future population growth. GOAL: NATURAL SYSTEMS AND, OPEN SPACES AND FOCAL POINTS SHOULD BE INCORPORATED INTO NEW RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT. STRATEGIES: • When new development occurs in the rural areas, the rural preservation option should be encouraged as the preferred subdivision form and design to preserve natural and environmental features should be implemented. • New residential neighborhoods will should incorporate focal points, landscaping, recreational amenities, open space amenities (active, passive, and natural), located in close proximity to all dwellings, with an emphasis on the provision of usable open space for resident use and enjoyment. that facilitate community interaction and promote a quality neighborhood development. GOAL: ENCOURAGE NEW AND INNOVATIVE HOUSING CHOICES THAT ALSO ACCOMMODATE A FULL RANGE OF AFFORDABILITY. WHICH MEET THE NEEDS OF VARIOUS AGES AND INCOMES. STRATEGIES: • Residential housing types and design guidelines should be flexible to accommodate evolving demographic trends, and to ensure that housing choices are maximized. • Ensure that adequate housing options are available to the development community through the Zoning Ordinance. Investigate additional opportunities such as accessory units to help expand the housing supply and help meet the County’s affordable housing needs. • Rural Community Centers should be enhanced as viable and desirable places to live, as they can serve an important role as a location with lower development costs, thus reducing the housing costs. Opportunities to provide water and sewer services, public or private, should be investigated. • Promote the completion of land use plans for the Rural Community Centers and provide incentives to increase the viability of these neighborhoods 16 NATURAL RESOURCES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 79 VII. NATURAL RESOURCES 17 NATURAL RESOURCES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 80 NATURAL RESOURCES CURRENT CONDITIONS Frederick County’s natural resources and geographic location has long influenced the County’s history and settlement patterns. The last several decades has seen the community mature with a significant amount of residential and business growth. The greatest potential impact on our natural environment is the increasing population in the County which results in alteration of the land use. Conversion of land in the rural areas results in reduced open space and fragmentation of farm and forest lands. It can also disrupt natural and wildlife systems that help purify our air, recharge our groundwater and protect our local streams. Likewise, the denser growth in the UDA results in increased impervious surfaces which can impact natural resources. The priority natural resource issues for Frederick County that are the focus of this chapter are: This chapter focuses on the following natural resources: • Water Supply and Water Quality • Sensitive Natural Areas • Agricultural and Forestal Areas • Stormwater Management • Erosion and Sediment Control • Green Infrastructure • Habitat Fragmentation and Environmental Corridors • Light and Noise Pollution FOCUS FOR THE FUTURE The intent of this Chapter is to provide guidance that the future of the County’s natural resources is viable and balanced, and able to meet the needs of the present community and that of future residents. As the County continues to grow and develop we should ensure that the natural beauty is preserved, air and water qualities are protected, property values and quality of life are enhanced, and ecological diversity is maintained. COMMUNITY BENEFITS The preservation, maintenance and enhancement of the natural resources within Frederick County are important to the community for many reasons. These resources contribute to Principal are those which help support the economic wealth, health of citizens, and the vitality of the County. The protection of natural resources helps preserve the Others include the protection of the scenic quality residents and visitors enjoy, and that supports native habitat and wildlife, and maintains biodiversity. Sound regulations on the part of the public and good practices on the part of the developer make for less costly public investment. New developments that protect the environment with quality systems present less cost to the County in the long term when maintenance may 18 NATURAL RESOURCES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 81 become a necessity. Recreational and aesthetic considerations are also part of our community resource management responsibilities. One focus of this Plan is to ensure that applications for development address environmental issues at the earliest planning phase. Projects that include components of green infrastructure can help foster community cohesiveness by engaging residents in the planning process. This Chapter defines those areas of the County that are sensitive and need to be preserved. WATER SUPPLY AND WATER QUALITY WATER SUPPLY Water supply is critical to both the natural and built environment, and viable sources are essential for future economic development in the County. There are no major rivers flowing through the County. The majority of the County contains small springs, seeps and headwater streams that contribute to three watersheds: the Opequon, Back Creek, and Cedar Creek. The County is within the larger Potomac River watershed, and ultimately the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The average flows from these streams within the County are marginal, and only Cedar Creek has been considered as a supplemental source with the potential for withdrawals during peak flows. With the exception of water purchased from the City of Winchester, which comes from the North Fork of the Shenandoah River, the County is entirely dependent on groundwater sources. The most productive aquifers in the County are the limestone/carbonate aquifers. Ninety percent of the recharge areas for groundwater in Frederick County are located in the limestone-carbonate topography or karst areas (see map). As development continues to occur in this region it is important to consider the impacts to both groundwater recharge and the pollution of groundwater from stormwater runoff. These are complex issues that also have a connection to surface water and will be referenced further in the water quality section. Groundwater studies in conjunction the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Virginia Water Science Center should continue, and participation in a regional water authority should be investigated to ensure adequate water supplies are available for the future. GOALS/STRATEGIES GOAL: PROTECT GROUNDWATER SOURCES AND THE AREAS THAT CONTRIBUTE RECHARGE (OR RESUPPLY OF WATER) TO ENSURE THAT ADEQUATE WATER SUPPLIES ARE MAINTAINED, AND WORK TOWARD DEVELOPING INCREASED WATER SUPPLIES TO MEET FUTURE NEEDS. STRATEGIES: • Regional water supplies should be investigated. • Groundwater recharge areas should be identified and protected. Protecting recharge areas can be accomplished through both technology options and reduced land disturbance practices during building and construction activities. 19 NATURAL RESOURCES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 82 • Water conservation and efficiency practices should be encouraged and practiced throughout the County. • Development within the limestone/carbonate geology should be limited and optimally these areas should be placed in conservation easements or preserved through the Transfer or Purchase of Development Rights (TDR and PDR) programs. WATER QUALITY Land use and development activities have the potential to impact the ecological quality of streams and water bodies through the direct transport of pathogens and pollutants. Hydrologic changes can alter the character of flow in streams, resulting in alterations to stream morphology, such as increasing stream bank erosion, increased high-flow events and more critically low flows during low-flow periods. Unlike point source pollution, which comes from a defined permitted source like industrial and sewage treatment plants, nonpoint source pollution (NPS) comes from many different and diffuse sources. NPS occurs when runoff from rainfall and snowmelt cause erosion and wash various pollutants from the land into our local waterways and potentially into our local waterways. In addition, these pollutants can also enter the groundwater via karst recharge, without the benefit of any natural filtration or dilution. This is a significant issue, as most of the surface streams and rivers in the region are dependent on groundwater recharge for their base flow, rather than surface runoff. Many of the streams/creeks in Frederick County are on the State’s impaired waterways list, and warrant future efforts to improve water quality. Volunteer efforts are underway to correct such situations. On-site sewage disposal systems are a potential source of water pollution when not properly maintained. These systems are regulated by the Virginia Department of Health (VDH).and by the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality. Package treatment plant sewer systems designed to serve particular developments should only be allowed in areas planned for more intensive residential development, such as in the Rural Community Centers. Where such systems are allowed, they should be dedicated to a public authority or sanitary district to insure that the facilities are properly operated. GOALS/STRATEGIES GOAL: PROTECT GROUND AND SURFACE WATER QUALITY. STRATEGIES: • Watershed management throughout the County should encourage forested or vegetated streamside buffers to filter pollutants, stabilize stream banks and provide wildlife habitat. 20 NATURAL RESOURCES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 83 • The types of onsite sewage disposal systems permitted in the County need to be managed to insure proper location, installation, operation, maintenance and inspection. • Special emphasis should be placed on utilizing state and federal cost share programs specifically funded to address water quality in the Opequon Creek watershed and other environmentally sensitive areas. Work with local community and non-profit organizations to promote agricultural best management practices. 21 NATURAL RESOURCES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 84 22 NATURAL RESOURCES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 85 23 NATURAL RESOURCES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 86 SENSITIVE NATURAL AREAS Sensitive natural areas encompass various resources in the County, such as floodplains, steep slopes, karst terrain, and agricultural areas. This section describes the importance of these sensitive natural areas to Frederick County. These resources are further identified and integrated into the small area land use plans contained within the Comprehensive Policy Plan. FLOODPLAINS Floodplains provide a necessary interface between land and water. Floodplains by definition store water and accommodate fluctuations in stream volume during heavy rains and can become flooded. Floodplains provide essential environmental benefits such as reducing peak flows and improving water quality. Encroachment of development into floodplains removes those benefits as well as increasing the impact on life, health and property. Regulations to protect floodplains and waterways from disturbance are included in the County’s Zoning Ordinance. Floodplain areas have been generally identified in studies conducted by the Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA). Detailed maps produced by FEMA show floodways, as well as 100 and 500-year floodplains. STEEP SLOPES Areas of steep slopes are located throughout the County, predominately in the mountainous areas, stream valleys and drainage areas. Steep sloped areas are often susceptible to erosion. The amount that may occur varies according to the amount and intensity of precipitation, slope steepness and length, vegetated cover and the soil type and erodibility. Clearing steeply sloped areas can exacerbate erosion of soil and increase stormwater runoff resulting in increased siltation and sedimentation. Careful consideration should be given to avoid concentrated runoff when impervious surfaces are located close to steep slopes. Minimal disturbance of natural vegetative cover, in particular forest cover should be encouraged versus replant requirements. KARST TERRAIN The central geophysical area of Frederick County is underlain by a band of carbonate bedrock consisting of limestone and/or dolomite and is identified as karst terrain. Karst terrain is characterized by the presence of sinkholes, surface depressions, caves, large springs, and a highly irregular, pinnacled bedrock-soil interface. Karst terrain is inherently unstable and susceptible to subsidence and surface collapse. As a result, the alteration of drainage patterns in these areas by the placement of impervious coverage, grade changes, or increased run-off from site changes can lead to sinking of land levels and sinkholes. It is important to realize that the most of the water recharge area for the drinking water for the County is located in the karst terrain. Groundwater supplies in these areas are particularly susceptible to contamination from surface activities. Fractures, fissures and solution openings 24 NATURAL RESOURCES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 87 in the bedrock may connect to public or private water supplies such as wells and springs, making those sources especially susceptible to groundwater contamination. GOALS/STRATEGIES GOAL: APPROPRIATELY MANAGE IDENTIFIED SENSITIVE NATURAL AREAS. STRATEGIES: • Protect floodplains and steep slopes from unsuitable uses and continue to recognize their value for stormwater management and ecological functions. • Development proposals should be adapted to fit the topography and natural setting of the County. • Special consideration should be given in areas known for karst terrain prior to changes in land use. Prior to any development activities in areas known to have karst terrain, a geotechnical analysis should be performed by a certified geotechnical engineer and submitted to the Public Works Department for review. 25 NATURAL RESOURCES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 89 26 NATURAL RESOURCES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 90 AGRICULTURAL AND FORESTAL AREAS Agricultural and forestal lands in Frederick County contribute to the natural environment as well as add to the historic rural character and scenic quality associated with the community. Agricultural lands and forests provide economic benefits related to agriculture, forestry and tourism, and require minimal County services. Frederick County has an Agricultural and Forestal District program supported by the Code of Virginia. This program allows landowners to voluntarily enroll their lands in a district which limits development. These districts are renewed every five (5) years but property owners can request that their land be removed at any time. The County has seven separate agricultural and forestal districts which contain a total of 11,281.37 acres. The use of conservation easements for the protection of agricultural and forestry lands is increasingly becoming popular and encouraged, in addition to participation in the County’s Agricultural and Forestal Districts. GOALS/STRATEGIES GOAL: PROTECT AND PROMOTE FREDERICK COUNTY’S AGRICULTURAL AND FORESTAL AREAS STRATEGIES: • Evaluate the existing Agricultural and Forestal Districts program for effectiveness in helping preserve agricultural and forestry resources. • Encourage and promote opportunities that support the continued use of farmlands and the consumption of locally grown products. • Develop, promote and support voluntary measures to protect agricultural and forestry resources such as conservation easements, Purchase of Development Rights (PDR) or Transfer of Development Rights (TDR). • In the Rural Areas, development should be directed away from soils which are well suited for agricultural production. 27 NATURAL RESOURCES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 91 EROSION AND SEDIMENT CONTROL Soils are natural resources that require proper use and conservation. Bare soil is the single greatest source of sediment which can enter waterways through erosion. In many instances, the greatest controllable source of soil erosion is through managing construction activities to reduce exposing the soil to the elements. It is important to realize that the use of the soil be related to its suitability and limitations. Improper use may result in accelerated soil erosion, ground and surface water pollution, flooding, drainage problems, failed septic systems, construction problems and unproductive agricultural and forestal lands. The most environmentally sensible approach is to consider and adapt to soil types the planning and design of developments. The 1987 Soil Survey of Frederick County, Virginia by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Soil Conservation Service includes general and detailed soil maps, descriptions of the soils; and the suitability, limitations, and management of the soils for specified uses. The general soils map can be used to compare the suitability of large areas for general land use while the detailed soil maps along with soil unit descriptions can be used to plan and design a specific site. The Virginia Erosion and Sediment Control Act and the Frederick County Code require that properties and waters be protected from soil erosion and sedimentation resulting from development activities. The Frederick County Public Works Department is responsible for the implementation and enforcement of these requirements. GOALS/STRATEGIES GOAL: INCORPORATE SOIL TYPES INTO LAND USE PLANNING FOR THE DESIGN OF DEVELOPMENTS TO ENSURE PROPER USE OF THIS NATURAL RESOURCE AND GUARANTEE THAT DURING DEVELOPMENT PROPER EROSION AND SEDIMENT CONTROL MEASURES ARE MAINTAINED. STRATEGIES: • Vegetative cover should be encouraged as the most important physical factor influencing soil erosion. The removal of topsoil and permeable soils should be discouraged and when removed, requirements to replace the soils should be enforced. • Developments should be planned to fit the particular topography, soils, waterways, and natural vegetation on a site to ensure that structures and grading are designed to fit the site. • Planning that requires the smallest practical area of land be exposed for the shortest period of time (through scheduling and staging project activities) is encouraged. 28 NATURAL RESOURCES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 92 STORMWATER MANAGEMENT Urban development changes the nature of streams and drainage. Areas once woodlands or pastures that are developed with roads, parking lots, and buildings, increase the impervious area or imperviousness of the watershed. This process brings changes to the runoff characteristics of surface water, both in quantity and quality. Stormwater management is regulated by Chapter 79 of the Code of Frederick County “Erosion and Sediment Control Ordinance” as authorized by the Virginia Erosion and Sediment Control Law of Virginia. The Department of Public Works is the agency responsible for the implementation and enforcement of the Stormwater Management Ordinance as managed by the Department of Conservation and Recreation (DCR). Stormwater management seeks to maintain post-development runoff at pre-development levels. Where necessary, stormwater storage systems, such as detention ponds, are required to accommodate a post-development storm with a twenty-five-year frequency Low Impact Development (LID) is an alternative to conventional stormwater management. LID is a site design strategy with the goal of maintaining or replicating the pre-development hydrologic response through the use of design techniques to create a functionally equivalent hydrologic landscape. Some of the functions include water storage, infiltration, and groundwater recharge as well as management of the volume and frequency of water discharges. Elements of LID include minimizing land disturbance, limiting impervious surfaces, and utilizing runoff reduction practices such as bioretention, permeable pavements and grass swales. Geology is an important consideration when considering the application of LID practices. In areas of karst terrain, infiltrating LID practices must be carefully planned due to the potential for sinkhole formation. Stormwater treatment and conveyance systems should be directed away from known sinkholes to prevent expansion or possible collapse. Other geologic issues involve the presence of shale which makes infiltration difficult to impossible. While the use of LID may not replace conventional SWM controls, a combination of the two measures makes for a better overall stormwater management program. GOALS/STRATEGIES GOAL: ENSURE THAT STORMWATER IS MANAGED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE COUNTY’S EROSION AND SEDIMENT CONTROL ORDINANCE AND VIRGINIA’S STORMWATER REQUIREMENTS, AND WORK TO IMPLEMENT LOW IMPACT DEVELOPMENT (LID) MEASURES WHERE APPROPRIATE. STRATEGIES: • Encourage the use of semi-pervious or pervious surfaces and other low impact development techniques, where appropriate. Shared parking areas and reduced parking requirements for developments should be utilized to reduce impervious areas. 29 NATURAL RESOURCES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 93 • Encourage the use of bio-retention whenever possible. Large impervious areas should take advantage of bio-retention in their parking lots. • Participate in regional efforts to integrate LID runoff reduction and pollution prevention practices in karst areas and areas with shale-derived soils. 30 NATURAL RESOURCES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 94 GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE, GREENWAYS AND TRAILS Green infrastructure is the strategically planned and managed networks of natural lands, agricultural and forestal lands, and other open spaces. As an interconnected system, green infrastructure provides greater environmental viability, value, and function than disconnected individual resources. In both rural and urban areas, the green infrastructure concept identifies critical areas for conservation and establishes priorities for protection. It encompasses aspects like greenways, scenic areas, open spaces, biodiversity, and environmental corridors as well as naturally sensitive areas such as floodplains, karst areas and steep slopes. URBAN AND RURAL OPEN SPACE RESOURCES Open space resources in Urban Areas should be designed and created during development. Their value to the community is determined by their configuration, attributes and relationship to the surrounding areas. Urban open spaces will increase in importance as the County’s Urban Development Area (UDA) is more densely developed. Development in the Urban Areas should consider specifically designed open spaces incorporated as amenities to offset the higher densities. Wooded areas are an important resource and should be considered during planning and designing open spaces. The benefits of wooded include areas the maintenance of ground and surface water quality, groundwater recharge areas, habitat for biological resources, added oxygen to the air, and help protect environmentally sensitive areas. Urban wooded areas provide buffers and potential recreational opportunities. These areas help to preserve the natural scenery and can make the Urban Area a more attractive place to live. Rural open spaces of prime agricultural areas, forested areas, mountainous areas and stream valleys have particular value to the community; and they should be conserved. (See Agricultural and Forestal Lands above) Inappropriate sites like prime farm land, floodplains, habitats for threatened or endangered species, wetlands and land near wetlands, land near bodies of water and designated park land should be avoided during site selection and development to reduce environmental impacts. Development should be channeled into urban areas with existing infrastructure which would help protect natural resources and that existing natural areas should be conserved and restored to provide habitats and to promote biodiversity. GREENWAYS Greenways are areas of open space, usually linear in nature that form networks of trails. They are often located along streams, within utility easements, and along roadways, and can serve many different purposes. They can help link people to the area’s natural, recreational and cultural resources, as well as provide a system of natural linkages for the areas wildlife to preserve biodiversity and protect habitats. When constructed along streams they can help preserve and protect buffers along the streams which can help protect biodiversity and help filter pollutants. Greenways can also provide recreational opportunities such as hiking or bicycling provide nature studies such as plant and animal behavior, as well as simply raising awareness of the environment. 31 NATURAL RESOURCES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 95 The Tuscarora Trail The Tuscarora Trail is a 249 mile hiking trail situated generally along the mountain ranges to the west of the Shenandoah and Cumberland Valley. It connects to the Appalachian Trail (AT) in Shenandoah National Park and in Pennsylvania northeast of the town of Carlisle. Approximately 26 miles of the Tuscarora Trail is in Frederick County (see map). Of this total, approximately 11.25 trail miles are protected by easements on private property, 3.75 trail miles are on unprotected private property and 11 trail miles are on public roads. This trail is an important feature in the County for recreation and for the promotion of tourism. For safety reasons, the County supports the relocation of the trail off of the public roads wherever possible. The County also supports voluntary trail easements for sections of the trail on private property to insure the long-term viability of the Tuscarora Trail. GOALS/STRATEGIES GOAL: OPEN SPACES IN THE URBAN AND RURAL AREAS OF THE COUNTY ARE IMPORTANT AND NEED TO BE RECOGNIZED, DELINEATED AND PROTECTED. STRATEGIES: • In urban areas, open spaces should be planned. All types of urban open spaces like greenways, squares, plazas, urban parks, playgrounds and street medians should be considered as part of urban development planning and implemented wherever reasonable. • In rural areas, open spaces should be protected not only through conservation easements but also transfer development rights programs to ensure that agricultural, forested, and mountainous areas are protected. GOAL: ESTABLISH A NETWORK OF GREENWAY TRAILS FOR CONSERVATION, RECREATION AND TRANSPORTATION THROUGH THE URBAN AREAS OF FREDERICK COUNTY, AND LINK WITH THE TRAILS NETWORK IN THE CITY OF WINCHESTER. STRATEGIES: • Work with the Parks and Recreation Department, the City of Winchester and other organizations and community stakeholders to develop a greenway network plan that highlights the area’s natural and historic resources. • Ensure that when new developments are planned, connectivity of greenways is included through the project. 32 NATURAL RESOURCES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 96 33 NATURAL RESOURCES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 97 HABITAT FRAGMENTATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CORRIDORS Habitat fragmentation reduces available wildlife areas and changes migratory pathways through environmental corridors. Past development has created small separated pockets of open space that sometimes conflict with the needs of local wildlife and their adaptability to these changes. Fragmentation can hinder the safe movement or migration of many species because it forces them to travel over roads and through developments. GOALS/STRATEGIES POLICY: INCREASE THE CONNECTIVITY OF NATURAL AREAS AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES IN BOTH THE URBAN AND RURAL AREAS OF THE COUNTY TO AVOID FRAGMENTATION OF HABITATS AND MIGRATORY PATHWAYS. IMPLEMENTATION: • Environmental corridors should be planned with all development activities to ensure safe movement and protection of species. • The County should seek to reduce habitat fragmentation by maintaining large contiguous areas of forests, meadows, wetlands and streams. • Large scale clearing of mature woodlands should be avoided during development activities. LIGHT AND NOISE POLLUTION LIGHT POLLUTION Cycles of daylight and darkness have ecological consequences. Obtrusive lighting, often referred to as light pollution, obscures our view of the sky and primarily comes from inefficient and misdirected lighting sources. Misdirected lighting causes urban sky glow and glare, is a source of energy waste and can be a nuisance. Simply defined, light pollution is excess or obtrusive light created mainly by humans. Increasing development requires that care be taken to reduce unfocused emissions of light. NOISE POLLUTION Noise pollution is unwanted noise, often described as a displeasing sound that disrupts the activity or balance of human or animal life. The source of most forms of noise pollution is from transportation systems like vehicles, aircraft or railroads. The daily activities of the Winchester Regional Airport are an example, and it is important that land developing around the Airport is respectful of this operation. The Airport Support Area helps designate what types of uses are appropriate in these developing areas to ensure the continued operation of the Airport. 34 NATURAL RESOURCES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN 98 Other sources of noise include industrial operations, highway traffic, car alarms, factory machinery and equipment, construction work, lawn care equipment, barking pets, car stereos, and power tools. Urban planning can play an important role in managing noise pollution, and the County must ensure that acceptable levels of noise are maintained. Currently the County only has maximum noise levels for industrially zoned property. GOALS/STRATEGIES GOAL: MINIMIZE LIGHT EMISSIONS TO THOSE NECESSARY AND CONSISTENT WITH GENERAL SAFETY AND RECOGNIZE THE NUISANCE ASPECT OF UNFOCUSED LIGHT EMISSIONS. STRATEGIES: • Evaluate current lighting ordinances to assess effectiveness in reducing light pollution caused by up-lighting, excessive lighting, and glare. • Light emissions need to be minimized to what is necessary and consistent with general safety. Recognition needs to be given to the nuisance aspect of unfocused light emission. GOAL: MINIMIZE HUMAN EXPOSURE TO UNHEALTHY LEVELS OF NOISE. STRATEGY: • Ensure that with new development, people are protected from unhealthy levels of noise. Examine types of noise generators and determine if additional ordinances are appropriate. 35 THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 1 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES ECONOMIC ANALYSIS The study of the economy of Frederick County involves many factors. This chapter examines the change in employment sectors, the role of small business and top employers. Change in Frederick County’s economy, undoubtedly, is evident in this chapter; however, the strong signs of stability with appropriate diversity are particularly noteworthy. RECENT EMPLOYMENT COMPARISONS AND TRENDS An analysis of the employment segments reveals minimal overall change in the Frederick County economy since 2011. While the absolute number of employment change is significant for some of the largest employers, 4 of the top employers in 2005 remain ten years later. Health Care and Social Assistance and Accommodation and Food Services employment are the two new arrivals to the top employer list. The growth of Winchester Medical Center and Frederick County’s population remain likely reasons for its rise. Overall, retail trade displayed the largest growth of the top employers (+1,677). Manufacturing’s overall net increase is noteworthy given its decrease in the Commonwealth overall. Sector 2009 Sector 2019 Manufacturing 4,037 Manufacturing 5,999 Educational Services 2,930 Transportation and Warehousing 3,726 Retail Trade 2,801 Retail Trade 3,638 Retail Trade Construction 2,542 Educational Services 3,222 Accommodation and Food Services 1,875 Construction 2,898 Health Care and Social Assistance 1,609 Accommodation and Food Services 2,388 Looking into the next twenty years, population increase and continued economic forces will likely influence Frederick County’s economy and its largest employment sectors. Established manufacturing clusters in food, plastics, metals, and printing combined with an emerging concertation of back-office users should likely their employment levels remain stable and/or increase due to 45-minute drive-time labor supply of more than 330,000 professional s and central East Coast location. Retail, construction, and healthcare growth, fueled by population growth, will gain additional employment, and likely rise in its role within the economy. Joining the national and state trends, Frederick County will diversify further via professional and creative services and headquarters and back-office employment. Information and communication technology, engine ering, cyber security, data centers and back-office operations likely lead this surge. Although the major employment players remain mostly the same, their impact on the community has clearly changed. Viewing the growth in net new establishments provides an alternative view on the role of largest employment segments. The growth in the number of manufacturing establishments is a prime example. This fact along with overall positive employment growth in this sector demonstrates a very positive evolving manufacturing sector. The future of Frederick County’s economy shines bright given manufacturing’s noted large multiplier impact and above average wage. 36 THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 2 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES Overall, Frederick County boasted nearly 2,000 establishments in 2019, an additional 336 since 2009 Service based businesses; education and health services (+189) and financial services (+52) produced the largest net gain in new establishments since 2009. These sectors, however, collectively employ just about 70 percent of the employees of manufacturing sector. Advancing twenty year’s health care and professional service entities will likely continued to add their totals furthering Frederick County’s diversification into a manufacturing/service-based economy. SMALL BUSINESS A discussion about any economy would be incomplete without reviewing the role of small businesses. Their importance to a community’s long term economic success cannot be overstated. In the United States overall, they employ nearly half of all private sector employees. They generated 60 to 80 percent of net new job annually over the last decade. The definition of small business varies widely. For this chapter purposes, small business will be identified as those employers with less than 19 employees. The impact of small business can be viewed by total number of businesses and total number of employees within these businesses. In 2020, 85% of all employers in Frederick County had less than 19 employees. Conversely, small business in Frederick County employ 20% of all employees. Given the number of arrival/increase of large employers like Amazon, Navy Federal Credit Union, Trex and Valley Health Systems, the ability of small business to hold their role in Frederick County’s economy is integral to the Frederick County’s economic success. Sector 2009 Sector 2019 Trade, transportation, and utilities 357 Trade, transportation, and utilities 387 Construction 276 Education and Health Services 386 Professional and business services 265 Professional and business services 283 Education and Health Services 197 Construction 226 Other Services 123 Other Services 175 Leisure and hospitality 122 Leisure and hospitality 151 Financial Services 98 Financial Services 128 Manufacturing 91 Manufacturing 104 37 THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 3 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES Employers by Size of Establishment Frederick County Virginia 0 to 4 employees 1,154 187,416 5 to 9 employees 262 38,189 10 to 19 employees 225 26,710 20 to 49 employees 176 18,273 50 to 99 employees 57 6,159 100 to 249 employees 27 3,405 250 to 499 employees 14 1,035 500 to 999 employees *** 330 1000 and over employees *** 239 1,920 281,756 Employment by Size of Establishment Frederick County Virginia 0 to 4 employees 1,550 242,220 5 to 9 employees 1,742 253,076 10 to 19 employees 3,032 361,580 20 to 49 employees 5,404 547,266 50 to 99 employees 3,980 424,971 100 to 249 employees 3,611 509,016 250 to 499 employees 4,693 355,425 500 to 999 employees *** 226,021 1000 and over employees *** 640,210 31,122 3,559,785 Note: Asterisks (***) indicate non-disclosable data. 'Zero; no employment' typically represents new startup firms or sole proprietorships. Source: Virginia Employment Commission, Economic Information & Analytics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), 2nd Quarter (April, May, June) 2020 Small business will retain the vast majority of employment in Frederick County. As such, entrepreneurship/small business development should remain one of the pinnacles of Frederick County’s economic development. It is a beacon indicating when a community has an ideal business climate – when all physical and soft infrastructure is in place to a llow new companies to grow and the community to self-sustain economic growth. The community’s undeveloped entrepreneurial culture has often been highlighted in studies as a hurdle to continued economic growth. 38 THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 4 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES CURRENT TOP EMPLOYERS Over ten years ago, Frederick County’s economy was chiefly led by major manufacturers and local government entities. Manufacturers established deep roots due to the area’s immense access to the East Coast, Virginia’s favorable cost of business and Frederick County’s productive workforce. Frederick County School Board Educational Services 1000 and over employees County of Frederick Executive, Legislative, and Other General Government Support 500 to 999 employees U.S. Department of Homeland Defense Administration of Economic Programs 500 to 999 employees Kraft Foods Food Manufacturing 250 to 499 employees Lord Fairfax Community College Educational Services 250 to 499 employees H.P. Hood, Inc. Food Manufacturing 250 to 499 employees Navy Federal Credit Union Credit Intermediation and Related Activities 250 to 499 employees The Home Depot Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers 250 to 499 employees Shockey Brothers, Inc. Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing 250 to 499 employees Westminster Canterbury Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 250 to 499 employees Today, the make-up of the largest employers is quite more diverse than 2020. While manufacturers still hold several slots in the top ten, many service base employers, like Navy Federal, Home Depot and Department of Homeland Defense, have provided a more diverse economy than 10 years ago. These new additions provide enhanced stability during instance of plant closures and national economic downturns. Frederick County School Board Educational Services 1000 and over employees Navy Federal Credit Union Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,000 and over employees U.S. Department of Homeland Defense Administration of Economic Programs 1,000 and over employees Trex Company Inc & Subsid Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing 500 to 999 employees County of Frederick Executive, Legislative, and Other General Government Support 500 to 999 employees H.P. Hood, Inc. Food Manufacturing 500 to 999 employees The Home Depot Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers 500 to 999 employees Lord Fairfax Community College Educational Services 250 to 499 employees Fisher Scientific Company Chemical Manufacturing 250 to 499 employees Martin's Food Market Food and Beverage Stores 250 to 499 employees 39 THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 5 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES FUTURE BUSINESS GROWTH In 20 years, the top employer listing may contain many of the same names, but likely they will be joined by some of employers of tomorrow. Third party analyses have indicated a strong likelihood of success toward other business service operations, life science entities and defense/advance security-oriented businesses. The full list follows below. CURRENT WORKFORCE DRAW Frederick County’s labor supply is drawn from a 45 -mile radius and includes the counties of Shenandoah, Page, Clarke, Warren, Loudoun in Virginia, and the counties of Berkeley, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson, and Morgan in West Virginia and Washington County, Maryland. The largest major occupation group in the Workforce Draw Area is Office and Administrative Support Occupations, employing 34,103 workers. The next -largest occupation groups in the region are Sales and Related Occupations (29,792 workers) and Transportation and Material Moving Occupations (29,761). High location quotients (LQs) indicate occupation groups in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The major groups with the largest LQs in the region are Transportation and Material Moving Occupations (LQ = 1.24), Sales and Related Occupations (1.08), and Educational Instruction and Library Occupations (1.07). Occupation groups in the Workforce Draw Area with the highest average wages per worker are Management Occupations ($110,100), Legal Occupations ($101,000), and Computer and Mathematical Occupations ($90,300). The unemployment rate in the region varied among the major groups from 1.8% among Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations to 11.4% among Personal Care and Service Occupations. 40 THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 6 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES Over the next 10 years, the fastest growing occupation group in the Workforce Draw Area is expected to be Healthcare Support Occupations with a +2.0% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Healthcare Support Occupations (+2,646 jobs) and Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (+2,377). Frederick County, VA’s Workforce Draw Area 2020Q31 Current 5-Year History 10-Year Forecast Occupation Empl Mean Annual Wages2 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Employment Change Ann % Empl Growth Ann % Growth Office and Administrative Support 34,103 $39,100 0.93 1,917 4.3% -1,870 -1.1% -703 -0.2% Sales and Related 29,792 $38,600 1.08 2,093 5.8% -1,961 -1.3% -23 0.0% Transportation and Material Moving 29,761 $37,100 1.24 2,587 6.9% 2,652 1.9% 2,293 0.7% Food Preparation and Serving Related 22,479 $25,900 1.01 3,176 10.9% -1,286 -1.1% 2,377 1.0% Management 17,557 $110,100 0.93 473 2.3% 745 0.9% 1,019 0.6% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 17,447 $81,700 1.05 355 1.8% 1,814 2.2% 1,799 1.0% Educational Instruction and Library 17,282 $58,300 1.07 912 4.8% -132 -0.2% 1,254 0.7% Production 17,280 $40,100 1.03 1,257 5.9% 193 0.2% -523 -0.3% Business and Financial Operations 13,775 $75,200 0.86 479 2.6% 1,140 1.7% 1,263 0.9% Construction and Extraction 12,953 $45,800 0.97 1,676 7.6% 277 0.4% 1,018 0.8% Healthcare Support 11,818 $30,300 0.93 565 3.8% 602 1.1% 2,646 2.0% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 11,476 $49,600 1.05 715 4.0% 390 0.7% 738 0.6% Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance 9,560 $30,200 1.01 778 6.1% -376 -0.8% 977 1.0% Personal Care and Service 8,071 $30,300 1.07 1,266 11.4% -599 -1.4% 1,033 1.2% Computer and Mathematical 7,458 $90,300 0.85 288 2.3% 658 1.9% 1,129 1.4% Protective Service 6,425 $48,200 1.03 237 2.8% -93 -0.3% 390 0.6% Community and Social Service 4,954 $51,000 0.99 101 2.0% 145 0.6% 864 1.6% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 4,031 $53,700 0.79 381 7.0% -258 -1.2% 161 0.4% Architecture and Engineering 3,880 $85,800 0.78 142 2.6% 315 1.7% 165 0.4% Life, Physical, and Social Science 2,040 $73,600 0.80 73 2.7% 281 3.0% 187 0.9% Legal 1,884 $101,000 0.78 46 2.0% 84 0.9% 157 0.8% Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 1,497 $32,900 0.79 121 7.6% 31 0.4% 42 0.3% Total - All Occupations 285,522 $50,700 1.00 19,638 5.3% 2,753 0.2% 18,263 0.6% 41 THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 7 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES Source: JobsEQ® Data as of 2020Q3 unless noted otherwise Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding. 1. Data based on a four-quarter moving average unless noted otherwise. 2. Wage data are as of 2019 and represent the average for all Covered Employment 3. Data represent found online ads active within the last thirty days in the selected region; data represents a sampling rath er than the complete universe of postings. Ads lacking zip code information but de signating a place (city, town, etc.) may be assigned to the zip code with greatest employment in that place for queries in this analytic. Due to alternative county -assignment algorithms, ad counts in this analytic may not match that shown in RTI (nor in the popup window ad list). Occupation employment data are estimated via industry employment data and the estimated industry/occupation mix. Industry employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labo r Statistics and currently updated through 2020Q2, imputed where necessary with preliminary estimates updated to 2020Q3. Wages by occupation are as of 2019 provided by the BLS and imputed where necessary. Forecast employment growth uses national projection s from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. The unemployment rate for Frederick County, Virginia was 3.4% as of December 2020. The regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 6.5%. One year earlier, in December 2019, the unemployment rate in Frederick County, Virginia was 2.0%. U n e m p l o y m e n t r a t e d a t a a r e from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and updated through December 2020. As the table shows below, Frederick County possesses a diverse and ample labor force within its draw area.. Summary1 Frederick County, Virginia Virginia USA Frederick County, Virginia Virginia USA Percent Value Economic Labor Force Participation Rate and Size (civilian population 16 years and over) 64.6% 65.2% 63.2% 44,524 4,356,868 163,555,585 Prime-Age Labor Force Participation Rate and Size (civilian population 25-54) 84.8% 83.6% 82.1% 28,338 2,788,406 104,634,905 Armed Forces Labor Force 0.2% 1.8% 0.4% 107 120,385 1,073,907 42 THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 8 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES Veterans, Age 18-64 6.3% 8.1% 4.6% 3,254 420,632 9,143,042 Veterans Labor Force Participation Rate and Size, Age 18-64 81.4% 83.0% 76.6% 2,649 348,936 7,003,778 Median Household Income2 — — — $78,002 $74,222 $62,843 Per Capita Income — — — $35,123 $39,278 $34,103 Educational Attainment, Age 25-64 No High School Diploma 9.3% 8.7% 10.9% 4,196 392,543 18,550,150 High School Graduate 31.5% 22.9% 25.7% 14,212 1,029,408 43,627,868 Some College, No Degree 20.4% 19.4% 20.7% 9,209 874,977 35,174,790 Associate's Degree 10.0% 8.3% 9.1% 4,539 374,819 15,526,064 Bachelor's Degree 16.8% 23.6% 21.2% 7,590 1,062,466 35,997,848 Postgraduate Degree 12.0% 17.1% 12.3% 5,424 770,727 20,961,560 Social Poverty Level (of all people) 6.2% 10.6% 13.4% 5,229 865,691 42,510,843 Households Receiving Food Stamps/SNAP 4.4% 8.2% 11.7% 1,394 259,639 14,171,567 Enrolled in Grade 12 (% of total population) 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1,206 114,768 4,422,344 Source: JobsEQ® COMMUTING PATTERNS The Winchester-Frederick County community is the regional economic epicenter for the Northern Shenandoah Valley region. One reason for this statement is found in the area’s commuting patterns. More workers (3,302) commute into Winchester-Frederick County than commute out, positioning the community as an economic center of the Northern Shenandoah Valley. 60% of working individuals in Winchester-Frederick County live in Winchester-Frederick County (JobsEq 2020Q3). The benefits of our community having a large “live where you work” population is enormous. • Promotes linkage between employers and community. • Reduces commuting costs, thus increasing a household’s disposable income. • Reduces employee turnover, training, and recruitment costs. • Makes our community a more attractive place for businesses to locate and expand. 43 THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 9 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES TAXABLE SALES The retail sector is important, though, as retail activity reflects the general health of a local economy. Retail sales also produce sales tax dollars, which support municipal service provision. In Frederick County the overall value of taxable sales grew from $860 million to nearly $1.4 billion in unadjusted dollars, currently. The growth of Frederick County’s economy once again became apparent when examining the top taxable sales categories over the past 20 years. In 2010, general merchandise stores topped all taxable sales with a total of nearly $209 million. Fast forward to 2020, general merchandise stores still topped all taxable sales, but the total exceeded $340 million, a 64% increase. Sector 2010 Sector 2020 General Merchandise Stores $209,662,481 General Merchandise Stores $344,240,938 Food and Beverage Stores $154,331,080 Food and Beverage $188,189,903 Food Services and Drinking Places $68,315,444 Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods $100,440,867 Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods $64,263,033 Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers $100,894,684 Gasoline Stations $47,565,980 Food Services and Drinking Places $92,926,581 44