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CPPC 11-13-95 Meeting Agendac e r COUNTY of FREDERICK Department of Planning and Development 703/665-5651 FAX 703/678-0682 TO: Comprehensive Plans and Programs Committee FROM: Kris C. Tierney, Deputy Planning Direct <7 RE: Meeting Date and Agenda DATE: November 8, 1995 There will be a meeting of the Comprehensive Plans and Programs Committee on November 13, 1995 at 7:30 pm in the Conference Room of the Old County Court House. Please let me know if you are unable to attend. 1) r i n i �. Attached is a letter from Mr. Benjamin Butler, requesting that roughly 50 acres just west of Route 37 be included within the County's SWSA. The property is the estate of H. Clay deGrange. This is the same land that the Round Hill Land Use Plan recommends placing inside of the Round Hill Community Center boundary. The intention of. the landowner (the property is held in a trust) is to rezone the land for commercial development. 107 North Kent Street Winchester, VA 22601 Rimnisippmum Page 2 CPPS Agenda 11/13/95 November 8, 1995 The Committee will need to make a recommendation to the Planning Commission as to whether or not you feel this property should be included in the SWSA at this time. 2) Discussion of 1996 version of the Comprehensive Policy Plan - so`* Staff has completed the bulk of this year's update of the Plan. As usual, much of the update consists of updating statistical information such as school enrollment and population figures. We have also made minor editorial corrections where needed. We have copied only those pages with significant updates for your review. Text that is to be deleted is shown with a .............. she..... through it and text to be added is d _._.. There are some additional items yet to be completed. Some reference to, or inclusion of the recent Battlefield Plan needs to be incorporated into the text. We are waiting for the Board of Supervisors to receive the Plan. Also, information from the Round Hill Land Use Plan needs to - be incorporated. Again, we are waiting at least until the Planning Commission has seen the final product to add it to the Plan. There are updates needed to the Sewer and Water Map as well as the Eastern Road Plan Map. These are in process. The update to the Eastern Road Plan consists of eliminating the north south collector road that would split the Third Winchester Battlefield site. We also plan to add some sort of graphic to the first page of each chapter to better distinguish each one. KCT/rsa Enclosure LAW OFFICES KUYKENDALL, .IOHNSTON, �ICKEE & BUTLER, P.L.C. 112 SOUTH CAMERON STREET WINCHESTER, VIRGINIA. 22601 Telephone (540)662-3486 Facsimile (540)722-3787 J. SLOAN KUY'KENDALL (1906-1995) PETER K. MCKEE (1934-1967) BENJAMIN M. BUTLER STEPHEN G. BUTLER GEORGE W. JOHNSTON, III* J. SLOAN KUYKENDALL, III EDWIN B. YOST PHILLIP S. GRIFFIN, II *Admitted in VA and WV October 18, 1995 Kris Tierney, Deputy Director Frederick County Department of Planning and Development Post Office Box 601 Winchester, Virginia 22604 Re: My File No. 10,149 First Union Bank, Trustee of the deGrange Estate Frederick County Tax Parcel No. 53-A-68 Dear Kris: OF COUNSEL: JOHN F. ANDERSON PLEASE REPLY TO: P. O. DRAWER 2097 WINCHESTER, VA 22604 I represent First Union Bank, Trustee of the H. Clay deGrange Estate, and the Trustee has requested that I write Frederick County to consider the southern portion of the deGrange property containing 50 acres, more or less, lying along the north side of Route 50 and the west side of Route 37, to be included in the water and sewer service area in order that commercial development of this property may take place in the future. The request made hereby is for the 50 acres, more or less, to be included within the Comprehensive Plan for commercial development, and it is anticipated that in January, 1996, an application to rezone the property for commercial use will be presented to the Frederick County Planning Office and Planning Commission. At this point in time, it has not been determined whether the zoning will be B-2 or B-3 or a mixture of the same; however, a general plan will be forthcoming in keeping with the requirements of the Frederick County Ordinances on zoning and development. ..:: Kris Tierney, Deputy Director October 18, 1995 Page Two Please let me know if any additional information is needed in order to be included in the development area and for the Comprehensive Plan Committee to consider this request. Very truly yours, KUYKENDALL, JOHNSTON, Mc E4&BgLER,L.C. ENJA BMB:dhc CC: Ms. Linda Wade First Union Bank Mr. George W. Glaize, Jr. A %:% r�A/ ��" . � �� s'�� ''i}�� '�r/ � ��36/f�jfj�g.� f��..�'Y...�.. ff� lr�..:§.fir. �'�/��,��.%r�'�� :��sfA .�S. �sIIr/.Ciflll�I.�i, ,/�'�/�:�6Ji%�ri� -H�.� .... �.. X11 �P �,;i,��l«�� ,�� rrr �� _ A PLANNING PROCESS FOR FREDERICK COUNTY IDENTIFY ISSUES To produce a list of issues and problems and to set priorities: - Hold discussions with Subcommittees Planning Commission, Board of Supervisors and other agencies Y - Elicit public opinion and participation DEVELOP INFORMATION Provide information to support planning and decision making: - Maintain up to date database - Do background studies Introduction ESTABLISH POLICIES To produce statements of policy and to set priorities: - Hold discussions with Board of Supervisors, Planning Commission, and other agencies. - Elicit public opinion SET STRATREGIES AND IMPLEMENTATION METHODS Develop strategies, methods and standards in order to create the foundation for a work program and time table: - Research methods - Hold discussions with all interested groups and individuals - Monitor and evaluate results 1995 Frederick County 3 Comprehensive Plan Population and Housing Growth in Housing The number of permits issued for the construction of new homes has varied dramatically, following the rise and fall of the national housing market. The numbers of permits issued for new houses each year rose steadily in the early 1970's, but fluctuated in the middle 1970's. Starting from 1977, a steady decline in permits issued occurred reaching a low of only 212 permits in 1982. From 1982 to 1988, permits for new houses increased steadily to an all-time high of 980 permits in 1988. However, between 1989 and 1992, building permits issued for new residences in the County declined dramatically (47%) as a result of a recession in the national housing market. By 1992, the amount of permits issued decreased to a total of 520 permits. The permits issued in 1993, however, ended this four year decline. Seven hundred and fifty two (752) permits were issued for the construction of new homes in 1993. 0`0 Figure 2 Building Permits for New Residences Frederick Connty, Virginia 1000 800 600 a. 400 200 0 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Year Growth in the local economy is a major factor influencing overall growth in Frederick County. The economies of Frederick County and the City of Winchester are interrelated and economic changes affect both jurisdictions. There has been a continuing growth in local employment in both the City and County. An additional factor influencing growth in Frederick County has been an increasing movement of people into the County from the Washington Metropolitan Area. It can be anticipated that economic growth will continue, thereby supporting continued steady rates of overall growth. 1995 Frederick County ComprehensivePlan NEIGHBORHOODS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 le 19 20 21 22 Albin Armel Ash Hollow Bufflick Clearbrook / Brucetown Fredericktowne Gore Kernstown Middletown Area Red Bud Run Reliance Reynolds Store Round Hill Senseny Shawneeland Star Tannery Stephenson Sunnyside Middletown Stephens City Whitacre / Cross Junction / Gainesboro White Hall / Nain FA� Net Change in Dwelling Units (1990 TO 1994) 1 to 99 100 to 199 200 plus IFREDERICK COUNTY, VIRGINIA I M PARnMT OF PLANMG AND DEVELDPYBNT Scale: 1 Inch = 5' Miles Population and Housing 'Fable 5: Households and Average Household Size, Frederick County (1960-1990 J'ource: U.S. Bureau, r),ederick County Department of Planning and Development Y A Projections The Frederick County Department of Planning and Development has produced alternate low, medium, and high population projections. The low projections come from the Virginia Employment Commission and are cohort component projections. The moderate projections use the average amount of population increase that occurred each year between 1980 and 1993. The high projections use the average annual percent rate of increase between 1990 and 1993. These projections suggest that the population of Frederick County will fall somewhere between 55,800 and 60,400 by the year 2000. Table 6: Population Projections for Frederick ulation PolrDections P veirage ousehold Yeax; Po' ulatIon, <: . Households Size . . 2000 2005 2010 1960 21,941 6,045 60,351 3.63 1970 24,107 8,570 58,073 2.81 1980 34,150 117467 H!&t_ 52,542 2.98 1990 45,723 16,470 2.78 J'ource: U.S. Bureau, r),ederick County Department of Planning and Development Y A Projections The Frederick County Department of Planning and Development has produced alternate low, medium, and high population projections. The low projections come from the Virginia Employment Commission and are cohort component projections. The moderate projections use the average amount of population increase that occurred each year between 1980 and 1993. The high projections use the average annual percent rate of increase between 1990 and 1993. These projections suggest that the population of Frederick County will fall somewhere between 55,800 and 60,400 by the year 2000. Table 6: Population Projections for Frederick ulation PolrDections P 1990 1993 1995 2000 2005 2010 Low 51,449 55,823 60,351 64,878 45,723 49,700 Medium 52,092 58,073 64,054 70,035 H!&t_ 52,542 60,377 69,381 79,728 Based on rates of construction occurring in the late 1980's, it might be expected that population growth will be closer to the high projections than to the low projections. It is possible to update the information on growth trends and the projections each year. In this way, we can better understand how the County is growing and can monitor changes in trends on a continuous basis. 1995 Frederick County 21 Con4 rd=isivePlan Population and Housing Figure 3 Population Projections Frederick County 80,000 60,000 �''� y • E- ,440000 ,tea 40,000 b o. w 20,000- 0- 1990 0,00001990 1995 2000 2005 2010 YEAR ------ A-- Low — i- — Medium .... ... High The population projections can also be used to project the number of new households that will be created in the County and the number of new dwellings that will be needed. The demand for new housing will be affected by the extent to which the average number of persons per household declines. The low household projections use the low population projections and assume that the average household size will not decrease further. The medium and high household projections use the medium and high populations projections and assume that the average household size will drop to 2.7 persons per household by 1995 and to 2.6 persons per household by 2000. o* Ta hie. 7_ Prnieefi-d NRw DwAlinac Napriarl (FrarlarinU 9-^.. -+., Ionn minim New Dwellings Needed Per Decade New Dwellings Needed Per Year 1990-2000 2000-2010 1990-2000 2000-2010 Low 3,610 3,257 361 326 Medium 5,866 4,601 587 460 High 6,752 7,443 675 744 .wr+.ter. r reuencR t,uunryueparrmenr ojrrammng ana ueve[opment 1995 Frederick County 2.2 ComprehensivePlan Economy Because of its strategic location in relation to other areas, the Frederick County -Winchester area has been a center of commerce and transportation since the eighteenth century. In the County, major roads traveling west from the Washington metropolitan area meet major roads traveling north and south in the Shenandoah Valley. Economic growth continues in the County as a result of these advantages. Economic growth is one of the forces that drives other types of growth in any community. In order to plan for growth and development in Frederick County, it is important to examine economic trends. It is particularly important to coordinate economic development policy with other planning policies. The City of Winchester and Frederick County together comprise a single, unified economic area. Economic growth in the City of Winchester certainly has an effect on growth in the County. Therefore, the City and County have developed a cooperative approach to economic development. V Employment Trends The number of employed people living in Frederick County and Winchester has grown in recent years despite fluctuations following the rise and fall of the national economy. With the exception of a slight decrease in 1991, employment within the private sector has steadily increased over the past decade by an average of 4.3% per year. This includes both the City of Winchester and Frederick County. According to the Virginia Employment Commission, total employment within the private sector was 21,617 in 1983. By 1993, the labor force had increased to 31,980. Manufacturing continues to play a major role in Frederick County's economy. Employment within manufacturing has accounted for more than 35% of total private employment in Frederick County over the past decade. Sixteen percent of the private labor force were employed in retail trade in 1993, and 15% were employed in service related jobs. Jobs related to finance, insurance, and real estate has experienced the greatest percent increase. In 1983, jobs within this sector accounted for only .6% of Frederick County's total employment. By 1993, the employment in this sector increased to 3.6%. Unemployment rates, and the percentage of the labor force which are unemployed, have fluctuated in Frederick County and Winchester in response to economic trends that have occurred nationwide. During the 1970's and 1980's, average annual unemployment rates for the local area were generally above the state and national averages. During the peak recessionary year of 1982, the unemployment rates in the area reached a high of 11.7%, above the national average of 9.7%. However, since 1983, average annual unemployment rates have generally fallen below the national average. In 1992, the average unemployment rate did rise to 7.8% which was above the national average of 7.4% but has 1995 Frederick County 27 Comprehensive Plan Economy Conclusions Frederick County continues its recovery from two national recessionary periods in the early 1980's and 1990's. However, from 1980 to 1990, Frederick County has significantly increased its share of manufacturing jobs in the Lord Fairfax Planning District. This increase has caused both total employment and the percentage of workforce engaged in manufacturing to rise. While the number of jobs in manufacturing and the percentage of workforce engaged has fallen dramatically throughout Virginia and the United States, Frederick County, along with neighboring regions to its north, have experienced a stable manufacturing base. This trend reflects one of Winchester and Frederick County's economic strengths. The following are some general conclusions concerning economic trends in Frederick County and Winchester: * Reflecting national economic trends, the greatest increase in jobs locally has been in services and trade. The number of employed people living locally has increased at a more rapid rate than the population as a whole. Between 1980 and 1985, there was $70 million of non-residential construction in Frederick County and Winchester. There was $23 million of industrial construction, mostly in Frederick County, and $19 million of commercial construction, mostly in Winchester. From 1986 to 1992, there was $190 million of non-residential construction in Frederick County and Winchester. There was $51 million of industrial construction, mostly in Frederick County, and $44 million of commercial construction. Between f975 and f985, enipivyinent in the private sector in fiedeiickeounty MI Winchester inci eased at an average i ate of about 2.65 . Between 1985 and 1993, employment in the private sector in Frederick County and Winchester increased at an average rate of 3.8%. Local retail sales and travel -related tourist expenditures have grown at a rapid rate. Since 1990, Winchester and Frederick County have consistently increased the share of Virginia retail sales by on tenth of one percentage point. While this amount may seem small, it translates to nearly $47 million in increased share of sales. 1995 Frederick County 31 Comprehensive Plan Economy cor..naplr;lenik.<:ulredencl.:.:Coun,< and_. Winchester.. * While Per Capita Income (PCI) has dropped dramatically in other regions, the PCI in Winchester -Frederick County rose from $17,049 in 1991 to $18,205 in 1992. Nevertheless, this figure remains below the state average of $20,883. * According to the 1990 Census, 77% of workers living in the area worked in the area. However, the percentage of those commuting to other areas to work is increasing. From 1980 to 1990, the percent of the workforce commuting to northern Virginia increased from 2% to 9%. * Projections, based on recent population and employment trends and national projections, suggest that the local economy will continue to grow. Table 9: Employment Trends Within Private Sector (Frederick Coun E T R 1983 1'985 1987 1989 1991 1:993 Frederick County Total 7,282 7,962 9,163 11,571 10,060 11,515 Agricultural Services 397 404 450 387 323 473 Mining 124 122 144 172 157 148 Contract Construction 734 1,013 1,262 1,447 1,122 1,126 Manufacturing 2,789 2,473 2,715 3,607 2,908 4,127 Transportation and Utilities 733 727 746 841 944 754 Wholesale Trade 538 848 1,034 1,356 937 857 Retail Trade 1,115 1,168 1,411 1,911 1,869 1,867 Finance,lnsurance,Real Estate 46 150 163 434 367 418 Services 806 11042 1 1,237 1,416 1,433 1,745 Nonclassifiahle aource: vtrgtnta Cmptoyment c,omnussion; trreaerick Uounty Department of Planning and Development 1995 Frederick County 32 Comprehensive Plan Land Use within the corridor study areas include Redbud Run just west of Woods Mill Road or Greenwood Road (Route 656), along Abrams Creek, just west of Greenwood Road, and within the Shenandoah Hills area, also along Abrams Creek. Economics will govern the implementation of regional stormwater facilities. Economic analysis should include long term maintenance costs as well as the initial capital investment. The corridor plans show road connections between areas of existing development as well as areas proposed for future development. Managing traffic in such a way as to minimize backups and congestion is one of the primary goals of the corridor plans. These connector roads are seen as an essential element to the overall success of the plans. Planned collectors are intended to provide alternate travel routes between major traffic generators so as to relieve pressure on existing major collector and arterial roads. The plans indicate traffic controls at key existing, and proposed future, intersections. These intersections and corresponding traffic controls, turn lanes, etc., would be funded through means such as proffers or pro -rated assessments to the development(s) which generate the need for such improvements, Figure 12 Idealized Intersection Design Features of Note Turn Lanes with adequate stacking capacity Bicycel lanes in both directions Clear lane marking (travel, bike, turning, pedestrian) Raised medians with landscaping Landscaping alone edge of right-of-way Sidewalks Curb and Gutter * * 'P AR * V 1995 Frederick County 57 Comprehensive Plan Issues: Land Use There is a need to determine to what extent rural community centers will be the primary location of commercial and service uses in the rural areas The extent to which additional commercial and residential development should be allowed in each rural community center needs to be determined. What density of housing development should be allowed in each center? A policy governing the provision of public services to rural community centers needs to be established. Rural Areas In terms of land area, Frederick County, Virginia is predominantly rural in character. Within the County, rural areas can be defined as all areas outside of the designated Urban Development Area In the County, the primary land uses in rural areas are agriculture and forests. The primary growth pattern consisting of widely scattered, large lot residential development. Frederick County contains 266,000 acres of land. Of this acreage, approximately 23,000 is contained within the bounds of the Urban Development Area. The remaining 243,000 acres is in the rural areas. Roughly 230,000 acres lie west of Interstate 81 and are intended to remain rural into the indefinite future. Many residents of Frederick County are attracted to the natural beauty and special lifestyle found in rural portions of the County. Excessive or inappropriate development in these areas can reduce their value and attractiveness. At the same time, the rural areas play an important role in the County's economy through the income generated by agriculture. Fruit production was the largest single category of agricultural production, in terms of dollar value, in the County in 12 Over one-half of the market value of agricultural production in recent years has been fruit production. Most of the rest of the agricultural production involved livestock. In -i-98-2 j_...9.2,accordin to the United States Agricultural Census there were fx:8 acres g of farmland in Frederick County "hs., a decrease irk acre4.p farrnlartd>frorp the l$2 total: of J.' I; l 16 acreii ,The estimates of farniland acreage show that the total amount of farmland decreased steadily and significantly between 1950 and the early 1970's. However, between 1974 and 1982, the acreage of farmland remained relatively constant at about 120,000 acres. The estimated farmland acreage then fell between 1982 and 1987. Most of the reduction in farmland acreage that occurred in the 1950's and 1960's was probably due to the selling or development of marginal land or forestland 1995 Frederick County 71 Comprehensive Plan Issues: Land Use There is a need to determine to what extent rural community centers will be the primary location of commercial and service uses in the rural areas. The extent to which additional commercial and residential development should be allowed in each rural community center needs to be determined What density of housing development should be allowed in each center? A policy governing the provision of public services to rural community centers needs to be established. Rural Areas 41 In terms of land area, Frederick County, Virginia is predominantly rural in character. Within the County, rural areas can be defined as all areas outside of the designated Urban Development Area In the County, the primary land uses in rural areas are agriculture and forests. The primary growth pattern consisting of widely scattered, large lot residential development. Frederick County contains 266,000 acres of land. Of this acreage, approximately 23,000 is contained within the bounds of the Urban Development Area. The remaining 243,000 acres is in the rural areas. Roughly 230,000 acres lie west of Interstate 81 and are intended to remain rural into the indefinite future. Many residents of Frederick County are attracted to the natural beauty and special lifestyle found in rural portions of the County. Excessive or inappropriate development in these areas can reduce their value and attractiveness. At the same time, the rural areas play an important role in the County's economy through the income generated by agriculture. Fruit production was the largest single category of agricultural production, in terms of dollar value, in the County in +98 -2 - Aft Over one-half of the market value of agricultural production in recent years has been fruit production. Most of the rest of the agricultural production involved livestock. In J4_*2 1.192., according to the United States Agricultural Census there were f f 1. f f> 8' acres :. of farmland in Frederick County. '::`his rs a decreasE in acres gfaemlartclfrm the 1982 total tf Ila, 16 ar `:The estimates of farmland acreage show that the total amount of farmland decreased steadily and significantly between 1950 and the early 1970's. However, between 1974 and 1982, the acreage of farmland remained relatively constant at about 120,000 acres. The estimated farmland acreage then fell between 1982 and 1987. Most of the reduction in farmland acreage that occurred in the 1950's and 1960's was probably due to the selling or development of marginal land or forestland 1995 Frederick County 71 Comprehensive Plan RM . ' for purposes other than farming. re Y FARMLAND ACREAGE BY TYPE Acres of Land 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Frederick County 1950 1969 1974 1978 1982 1987 1992 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Census of Agriculture Year M Other Land E] Other Cropland m Pasture E3 Orchard E) Hay E] Corn Most of the prime agricultural soils in Frederick County, as defined and mapped by the United States Soil Conservation Service, are located in the limestone belt running north -south throughout the County east of Little North Mountain and west of Interstate 81. Most of the orchards and other cropland in the County are located in this area, although some are located in other areas. There are a number of support activities in the County that are particularly important to the local agricultural economy. There are at least seven permanent farm markets that sell local produce. There 1995 Frederick County 72 Comprehensive Plan I lN91MIN MINNOW MM 1950 1969 1974 1978 1982 1987 1992 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Census of Agriculture Year M Other Land E] Other Cropland m Pasture E3 Orchard E) Hay E] Corn Most of the prime agricultural soils in Frederick County, as defined and mapped by the United States Soil Conservation Service, are located in the limestone belt running north -south throughout the County east of Little North Mountain and west of Interstate 81. Most of the orchards and other cropland in the County are located in this area, although some are located in other areas. There are a number of support activities in the County that are particularly important to the local agricultural economy. There are at least seven permanent farm markets that sell local produce. There 1995 Frederick County 72 Comprehensive Plan Land Use are at least seven farm implement and supply dealers in the Winchester -Frederick County area and at least seven fruit packing operations. According to the United States Department of Agriculture, there were 130,947 acres of forest land in Frederick County in 1986. This figure has dropped to 126,000 acres in 1988, and ' wer tof4..a1s.;t Forestland is the largest single land use in the County. The majority of this forest land is private, non -industrial forest land and is located west of Little North Mountain. These forests provide a major contribution to maintaining the rural character of the County. In addition, they protect watersheds of our streams, provide wildlife habitat, and affect our climate. Forestry makes a major contribution to the local economy. Our forestland helps support almost 20 forest related industries in the County which employ approximately 750 full time workers. In 1977, the General Assembly passed the Agricultural and Forestal Districts Act. The purpose of this act is to conserve and protect agricultural land and to encourage its development for the production of agricultural and forestal products. Under this act, any landowner may apply to the County to have their land included in an Agricultural and Forestal District. Such districts are voluntary for landowners, but must be approved by the County. The primary statutory benefit of the Agricultural district is that it limits the ability of local governments and state agencies to enact laws or regulations, use eminent domain or take other actions which would interfere with the use of the land in the district for agricultural or forestal purposes. Under the viruria eode o e>a l3r in a, local governments may choose to restrict non-agricultural development in the agricultural district. . .. ... . mu . . . . . . . : oIto III Nor -I qM •• 111124 1 IW-. in .ung 1995 Frederick County 73 Comprehensive Plan Land Use A variety of uses are currently allowed in rural areas in the County. Care should be taken to avoid potential conflicts between these various uses. Other localities have found that certain levels of residential uses conflict with agricultural uses. New residents of rural areas sometimes find agricultural and forestry activities objectionable. Excessive residential development can reduce the efficiency of agriculture. Development activities, involving non-agricultural land uses, are occurring on a continuous basis in the rural areas in Frederick County. Most of this development activity is in the form of new residences. An estimated 1,500 new lots, ten acres in size and smaller, have been created in the rural portions of Frederick County since 1982. In addition, there are a significant number of these smaller lots that were created before 1983. It is probably safe to estimate that more than 2,000 new homes have been constructed in the rural portions of the County since 1982. While the rural areas of the county remain relatively undeveloped, there is a significant amount of land which has been subdivided but is not yet built on. The number of small lots being created in the rural areas has had increased each year since fi- 1986 to 1.989 There were 70 lots under 20 acres in .......... size created in 1986. In 1989, there were 292 lots created in the rural areas and of these 292 lots 270 were under 20 acres in size. "Since. I:0. the freauencv P. n: cilhclYilPrl tntc itacarra:aen,i 1995 Frederick County 74 Comprehensive Plan Figure 10 NEW LOTS CREATED UNDER 20 ACRES By Year, In Frederick County Lots 350 300 250 200 150 100 - 50 0 - - - - 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 Year Source: Frederick County Department of Planning and Development Note: This information is based on the total number of lots involved in a land division. Lanai Use Previous RA (Rural Area) regulations made it very easy for new lots to be created in the rural areas, with no consideration of impacts to surrounding land uses. The result has been scattered rural development. Many lots have been created for the purpose of speculation without any thought to design or potential impacts. Conflicts have arisen between existing uses and those newly established. .. The conversion of agricultural and forestal land to non-agricultural uses is obviously affected by conditions in the national agricultural economy and by the profitability of farming. The County is fortunate at the present time to have a strong and diversified agricultural base. Additional attempts to further diversify agricultural activities might further strengthen the local agricultural economy. The Virginia Code (Title 15. 1, Chapter 11) states that Planning Commissions should study the preservation of agricultural and forestal land in preparing the Comprehensive Plan. It also states that zoning ordinances should be designed to provide for the preservation of agricultural and forestal lands. To be effective, attempts to preserve valuable farmland should be consistent with an ongoing comprehensive planning process. 1995 Frederick County 75 Comprehensive Plan Community Facilities and Services As development continues in Frederick County, there is a need to carefully plan for the facilities and services that will be required. Planned development will effect the expenditures and facilities that will be needed. It will also effect the location and types of facilities that must be provided. There is a need to carefully monitor growth and to plan land use and facilities in a coordinated fashion. This can be accomplished through annual comprehensive planning and capital improvements planning. Schools There are nine elementary schools in Frederick County, and a tenth currently under construction, which provide for grades Kindergarten through 5. There are three middle schools in Frederick County which provide for Grades 6 through 8. James Wood High School and Sherando High School provide for grades. 9 through 12. The Northwest Regional Education Programs (NREP) School provides special education services and Dowell J. Howard provides vocational services for high school students and adults. During the past several ,decades, student enrollment has increased steadily. In particular, the decade of the 90's has seen a dramatic increase in student: enrollment. In 1990, student enrollment was 8,223 students. In. the fall of 1995, student enrollment was 9,641 students, which represents a 3.7% increase from 1994, and an increase of 1,418 students, or 17.2%, since 1990. %wL11V11111N11LJ Llavl. increased to 9,293 in the 199-4. This 2.7% ine, from I�Njjjje of reflects a case 1993 enToijinettt. enzollment has increased at ail levels, the most sigifificant increases ham takcit place at tILIC During the past several ,decades, student enrollment has increased steadily. In particular, the decade of the 90's has seen a dramatic increase in student: enrollment. In 1990, student enrollment was 8,223 students. In. the fall of 1995, student enrollment was 9,641 students, which represents a 3.7% increase from 1994, and an increase of 1,418 students, or 17.2%, since 1990. In 1995, of the nine elementary schools, six exceed 90% of capacity: Armel (104%), Bass -Hoover (96%), Indian Hollow (100°/x), Middletown (100%), Robinson (92%), and Senseny Road (94%). Total elementary school enrollment is 93% of capacity. As a result of increased elementary enrollment, the school board will open Redbud Run Elementary School in eastern Frederick County for the 1996-97 school year. Middle school enrollment is at 80% of capacity. James Wood High School's enrollment is X16% 1995 Frederick County 113 Comprehensive Plan XVIVivil t WAIM t W~I&I 8 111" WIN MWAYAW 1 ■ . - - r : : - - : : ■ : : ■ : : : In 1995, of the nine elementary schools, six exceed 90% of capacity: Armel (104%), Bass -Hoover (96%), Indian Hollow (100°/x), Middletown (100%), Robinson (92%), and Senseny Road (94%). Total elementary school enrollment is 93% of capacity. As a result of increased elementary enrollment, the school board will open Redbud Run Elementary School in eastern Frederick County for the 1996-97 school year. Middle school enrollment is at 80% of capacity. James Wood High School's enrollment is X16% 1995 Frederick County 113 Comprehensive Plan Figure 13 Community Facilities and Services PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT Frederick County Students 10,000 -17 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 i 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 School Year K-5 6-8 9-12 Total Source: Frederick County School Board The percentage of the estimated County population enrolled in public schools has declined from 30.6% in 1970 to 19.0% in 1992. This trend will likely continue over the long term. Growth in school enrollment in the future will be the result of new development, rather than increases in birth rates demogimphic trends. The current total enrollment to capacity ratio is 89% 92% of capacity. Enrollment meets or exceeds 90% of capacity at six eight schools. Great care is needed in considering the expansion of school capacity beyond what is needed to deal with current crowding and what is needed to replace outdated facilities. Enrollment, demographic, and development trends need to be carefully monitored. 116 Community Facilities and Services Refuse Collection, Landfill, and Recycling Refuse collection service is provided by Frederick County at 15 refuse collection stations. Eight of these stations consist of hydraulic compactor machines with separable roll -off containers; the other half seven sites consist of front end dumpsters. Currently, the County is in the process of converting dumpster sites to compactor stations when warranted by tonnage levels. The County should continue to convert dumpster sites to compactor sites as tonnage increases. Consolidation of sites during the conversion process is also desirable, when practical. The Frederick County Landfill is a regional facility that receives refuse from Frederick and Clarke Counties and the City of Winchester. The landfill is operated by Frederick County as a enterprise fund and the landfill operation is fee sustaining. The management and planning of landfill operations is solely the responsibility of Frederick County Closure of the older section of the landfill, which opened in 1976, was initiated completed in 1994. A new 160 acre tract of adjacent land, purchased in 1986, was opened for landfilling during 1993. Approximately 90 acres of this tract has been permitted for landfilling under the newly adopted Subtitle "D" Solid Waste Regulations. Both the close-out of the old section and the construction of the new section have been carried out in accordance with new state regulations that require much more sophisticated environmental protection measures, including composite impermeable liners, a complete leachate collection system, leachate treatment facility, groundwater monitoring and gas monitoring. The current landfill was ongiall estimated to have adequate capacity for 25 years commencing in October of 1993 The develoomert of a construction>debns*.landfill. shntalcl �*xtPn.rhP l,fc�. t. 0, commeric m I S< The County should reevaluate tonnage, revenue, and expenditure trends every year and set fees accordingly. The eounty shoufd continue to look fo, additional land adjacent to th%.' landfill fbi futuic expansion. The County should also continue to evaluate new technologies for waste reduction that would extend the life of the landfill. During the 1990's, the County will place, through private contracts, recycled material collection boxes throughout the County. Most will be located at existing compactor sites. The Commonwealth of Virginia has mandated that local governments reduce their solid waste streams by 10% by 1991, 15% by 1993, and 25% by 1995 through recycling efforts. This will require more intensive and coordinated recycling efforts. 1995 Frederick County 121 Comprehensive Plan Community Facilities and Services provides sewage treatment for Winchester. The Parkins Mill plant serves the upper Opequon Creek drainage area and portions of the Wrights Run drainage area. The Stephens Run Plant serves a small portion of the Stephens Run drainage area. The current capacity of the Opequon Water Reclamation Facility is 6.25 million gallons per day. Assuming a constant connection rate of 200 connections per year, the Frederick County Sanitation Authority has projected there will be sufficient capacity in the Opequon Plant through the year 2005. At an 8% growth rate, capacity is projected to be sufficient through the year 2002. An increase in the combined flows of the City of Winchester and the Frederick County SanitationAuthority may exceed the hydrolic capacity of the Opequon Plant prior to this date. The Stephens Run and Parkins Mills Plants serve an interconnectional system of sewer lines in the Stephens Run, Wrights Run, and Uppor Opequon drainage areas. The combined rated capacity of these plants is 750,000 gallons per day. The current average daily flow of these plants is 750,000 gallons per day. The Sanitation Authority is currently constructing an expansion of the Parkins Mills Wastewater Treatment Plant, which is expected to be completed in late 1995. At this time the capacity of plant will be 2.0 MGD. This expansion will eliminate the Stephens Run Wastewater Treatment Plant and the wastewater treatment plant serving the Town of Stephens City. Flow from those plants will be diverted to the Parkins Mills Wastewater Treatment Plant. Upon completion of the expansion, the Authority projects to have about 1.0 mgd of treatment capacity available for growth. There are substantial areas of land available for development within the existing sewer service areas. Figure 14 Total New connections Frederick County Virginia 1000 800 600 c� m 400 0 v 200 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Fiscal Year Water ❑ Sewer 1995 Frederick County 123 Comprehensive Plan Community Facilities and Services Figure 15 Certain portions of the Urban Development Area, such as the Apple Pie Ridge area, may not be intended to be sewer and water service areas. Rural Community Centers that are outside of the Urban Development Area may be provided with some form of service, depending on the policies established for each particular center. The intention is that additional extensions of sewer and water service will reflect the boundaries of the Urban Development Area. The extension of mains into areas not included in sewer and water service areas described by the facilities plan will require an amendment to the Comprehensive Plan. In this way, the County will maintain an orderly process of development. All sewer and water mains extended should be publicly owned mains. 1995 Frederick County 125 Comprehensive Plan Community Facilities and Services Figure 16 Capital Improvements Plan The Capital Improvements Plan (CIP) is the community's plan for public facilities. It provides a list R of projects planned for five years and is updated each year as projects are completed and new projects added. In general, projects on the Capital Improvements Plan are relatively expensive, fixed assets that require expenditures that don't recur annually and last for a relatively long time. The first year in the Capital Improvements Plan should provide a capital budget for the upcoming fiscal year. The scheduling of projects needs to be coordinated with plans for development contained in the Comprehensive Plan. The Comprehensive Plan should be used as a tool to aid in determining priorities among projects, for estimating required funding, and for scheduling projects. The Capital Improvements Plan helps to guide development, to achieve the most efficient use of funds, and to maintain a stable financial program. 126 Community Facilities and Services There is a need to carefully monitor school enrollments and to plan for school capacity to deal with overcrowding, replacement of outdatedfacilities, and population growth in the County. There is a need to continue supporting fire and rescue squads and to develop policies to deal with growing emergency service demands House number efforts should continue in association with improved emergency telephone systems. The County should support improvements at the Winchester Regional Airport as a part of the overall economic development efforts. The County should continue to monitor refuse collection sites and should make improvements or add sites as needed. The County should continue to monitor landfill usage and should look fm a&fitiona Recycling efforts should be supported. The County should maintain a process of careful Capital Improvements Planning coordinated with Comprehensive Planning. Frederick County and the Frederick County Sanitation Authority need to continue coordinated planning of sewer and water facilities following the procedures described by the Facilities Planning Agreement. Additional information is needed on the impacts of new development on community facilities Frederick County and the City of Winchester need to maintain coordinated planning of sewer and water facilities in the County through the Sewer Agreements. Together with the County and the City, the Frederick -Winchester Service Authority should carefully plan needed sewage treatment capacity based on trends in usage. The Service Authority needs to develop a capital improvements plan that is coordinated with City and Countyplans. Water and sewer service should be provided to service areas in the urban development areas through an orderly process following the Facilities Planning Agreement and using the Capital Improvements Plan. 128 Community Facilities and Services Implementation Methods: 1. Carefully monitor school enrollments and plan facilities according to enrollment and development trends. Update the Capital Improvements Plan each year based on trends. 2. Study the initiation of a careet system foL the fiL e and i escue squads. Continue to support fire and rescue squads and plan to increase support according to development in the various service areas.. 3. Develop plans for new emergency service facilities. 1.1�18�1��.%RI�.I lel.{.lq WIr11Nia�l l+Jla aIlly11�tfl Iltl'iis l�fll.�•!•I1�1a�S.111111\•ia111.1.�� 1aulu.f.7 6. Continue to convert dumpster sites to compactor sites. Monitor usage. Plan for new refuse collection sites according to use and planned development patterns. 7. Monitor landfill use. Plan for additional landfill capacity on adjacent land. Explore alternative disposal methods. 8. Continue to plan for sewer and water main extensions according to the agreements established with the Sanitation Authority and the City of Winchester. Include planned extensions in the Capital Improvements Plan. 9. Provide for recycling at collection stations and support a regional materials recovery center. 10. Carefully monitor sewer and water use and develop a capital improvements plan to accommodate projected development. 11. Consider means to provide water service to Brucetownmid the Route 5212 South . Ra1AlHlrl�IllK%11A7i.�.Il.1♦%{.1�7�1�14•l�l �.l�l�%lRK%Il.)II�.Ur!\l.U1S�)r1�I�1�1a.U1FIl� 13. Consider alternative sources of water supply. 14. Minor extensions of sewer and water service to business and industrial uses beyond the service area may be considered if such uses conform with other County standards. Such extensions should be reviewed by the Planning Commission for conformance with the Plan. 1995 Frederick County 131 Comprehensive Plan