TC 09-26-16 Meeting AgendaCOUNTY of FREDERICK
Department of Planning and Development
540/ 665-5651
Fax: 540/ 665-6395
107 North Kent Street, Suite 202 Winchester, Virginia 22601-5000
TO: Frederick County Transportation Committee
FROM: John A. Bishop, AICP, Assistant Director - Transportation
RE: September 26, 2016 Transportation Committee Meeting
DATE: September 21, 2016
The Frederick County Transportation Committee will be meeting at 8:30 a.m. on
Monday, September 26, 2016 in the first floor conference room of the Frederick
County Administration Building, 107 North Kent Street, Winchester, Virginia.
AGENDA
1. Gainesboro School Entrance Improvements
2. Upcoming Commonwealth Transportation Board Meeting
3. 2016 Virginia Appropriation Act
4. Revenue Sharing Applications
5. Fall/Winter Transportation Forum Discussion
6. Draft LFCC Public Transit Feasibility Study
7. County Projects Update
8. Other
Please contact our department if you are unable to attend this meeting.
Attachments
JAB/pd
MEMORANDUM
Item 1: Gainesboro Schools Entrance Improvements
Mr. Wayne Lee of Frederick County Public Schools will be present to brief the
Committee on entrance improvements at Gainesboro Elementary and Middle School.
Graphic is attached.
Item 2: Commonwealth Transportation Board Meeting
As you can see on the attached correspondence, on October 25, 2016 the Commonwealth
Transportation Board and Secretary of Transportation will be holding an open house
followed by a town hall meeting format. While the invitation notes there will be no
formal public comment, this is an opportunity to have direct interaction with our CTB
representatives, Secretary of Transportation, and VDOT Staff and inform them of
Frederick County’s key priorities.
Staff will be providing a brief overview of key items to the committee and determining
who may be able to attend the forum along with Staff.
Item 3: 2016 Virginia Appropriation Act
Please see attached correspondence from VDOT regarding efforts toward implementing
the 2016 Virginia Appropriation Act. Staff from VDOT will be present to discuss the
process and its implementation.
Item 4: Revenue Sharing Applications
The next round of VDOT Revenue Sharing Applications will be due on November 1,
2016. Staff is seeking approval from the Committee to begin preparation of the
following applications for the Board of Supervisors consideration and approval.
1. Remaining funding for Jubal Early Drive extension and interchange with Route
37
This project was first put forth for revenue sharing funding during last year’s
application cycle and received $5,890,895.00 in revenue sharing funds toward a
total project cost of $18,660,500.00. Staff would like to apply for an additional
$3,439,355.00 to get the revenue sharing portion of project funding up to the full
50% that the program allows.
2. Tevis Street Extension
This project was previously awarded $700,000.00 for potential gap funding on the
former CDA. Since that time the CDA has failed and significant construction
funding has been awarded to the Bridge over I-81 and the Airport Road extension
and round-a-bout. A portion of the $700,000.00 has been used for design of the
Tevis Street Extension and Bridge and Staff is seeking to apply for additional
revenue sharing funds to address right-of-way and construction of this section in
the amount of $2,193,145.00.
These two potential applications total $5,632,500.00.
Item 5: Fall/Winter Transportation Forum
Staff would like to begin discussion and availability for another transportation forum
similar to last year’s successful effort. Key items to discuss would include any theme
that the Committee may wish to follow or if there is a particular area of emphasis as well
as preferred dates.
Item 6: DRAFT LFCC Public Transit Feasibility Study
Attached, please find the draft LFCC Public Transit Feasibility Study for your review.
Staff will be going through the study and seeking Committee input.
Lord Fairfax
Community College
Public Transit
Feasibility Study
Draft Final Report
August 2016
Prepared for
Winchester-Frederick County Metropolitan Planning Organization
and
Lord Fairfax Community College
Prepared by
KFH Group, Inc.
Bethesda, Maryland
Lord Fairfax Community College
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Chapter 1 – Introduction and Needs Assessment
Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1-1
Transportation Challenges, Needs and Opportunities ............................................... 1-3
Student/Faculty/Staff Survey ..................................................................................... 1-5
Community Survey Results ....................................................................................... 1-11
Analysis of Enrollment Data ...................................................................................... 1-16
Analysis of Demographic Data .................................................................................. 1-21
Review of Previous Plans and Studies ...................................................................... 1-31
Review of Public Transit at Community Colleges in Virginia ..................................... 1-35
Student Fees at Community Colleges in Virginia ...................................................... 1-37
Summary ................................................................................................................... 1-39
Chapter 2 – Existing Services in the Region and Potential Organizational
and Service Options
Introduction ............................................................................................................... 2-1
Existing Transportation Providers in the Region ....................................................... 2-1
Organizational and Grant Administration Options ..................................................... 2-8
Service Options ......................................................................................................... 2-11
Potential Funding Sources ........................................................................................ 2-21
Next Steps ................................................................................................................. 2-25
Chapter 3 – Transit Service Plan
Introduction ............................................................................................................... 3-1
Organizational Plan ................................................................................................... 3-1
Service Plan .............................................................................................................. 3-3
Capital Plan ............................................................................................................... 3-18
Financial Plan ............................................................................................................ 3-19
Implementation Process ............................................................................................ 3-27
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
Lord Fairfax Community College 1-1
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 1: Needs Assessment
Chapter 1
Introduction and Needs Assessment
INTRODUCTION
Lord Fairfax Community College (LFCC) is one of Virginia’s 23 public community colleges. As
shown in Figure 1, LFCC’s primary campus is located in Middletown, Virginia, on Skirmisher
Lane along Route 11 in southern Frederick County. The campus primarily serves students from
Clarke, Frederick, Page, Shenandoah, and Warren Counties as well as the City of Winchester.
While the location is easily accessed via automobile, the campus currently lacks access to
public transportation, which has resulted in transportation challenges and barriers for some
current and potential students.
In recognition of the lack of public transportation access to the campus, the Winchester-
Frederick County Metropolitan Planning Organization (WinFred MPO), in collaboration with
Lord Fairfax Community College (LFCC) and other local stakeholders, has led the
development of a public transit service feasibility study for LFCC’s Middletown Campus.
The study was initiated in August, 2015 and completed in August, 2016. This report
documents the study process and is organized into the following three chapters:
Chapter 1: Introduction and Needs Assessment
Chapter 2: Existing Transportation Providers and Potential Options
Chapter 3: Draft Transit Service Plan
The remainder of this first chapter provides a description of the LFCC transportation
challenges, needs, and opportunities; provides an analysis of enrollment data; a demographic
profile for the region; a review of previous transportation plans and studies; and finally a
review of public transportation access to other public community colleges in Virginia.
Lord Fairfax Community College 1-2
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 1: Needs Assessment
Figure 1-1: Lord Fairfax Community College, Middletown Campus
Lord Fairfax Community College 1-3
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 1: Needs Assessment
TRANSPORTATION CHALLENGES, NEEDS AND OPPORTUNITIES
Advisory Committee
The study process was guided by an advisory committee that consisted of representatives
from the City of Winchester, James Madison University, LFCC, United Way, Virginia Regional
Transit, WinFred MPO, and WinTran (the public transportation program operated by the
City of Winchester). During the project kick-off meeting in August 2015, the following
challenges, needs, and opportunities were discussed among advisory committee members.
The City of Winchester is striving to provide a link for its teens and young adults to
reach educational opportunities at LFCC. Higher education for the City’s young adults
has been identified as one of the top priorities in the City’s Strategic Plan and currently
there is a high level of support for building transportation linkages between the City
and LFCC.
WinTran periodically receives calls for transportation from Winchester and Frederick
County to LFCC, which it is currently unable to provide.
Winchester’s medical employment sector and companies located in the city’s industrial
parks have a need for employees with advanced training and certifications, which are
offered through LFCC.
James Madison University (JMU) has been interested for some time in the
development of a service that would link the campus in Harrisonburg to Dulles
International Airport and would pass directly through the Middletown area. JMU is
interested in any synergistic approaches that may mutually benefit both educational
institutions. JMU is the receiving school for LFCC students who transfer to four-year
colleges/universities.
According to LFCC staff, the lack of dependable transportation is one of the greatest
barriers for students. Any new services should be user-friendly, convenient, and high-
frequency.
LFCC financial support is highly dependent on the implementation of a service that
shows an increase in student enrollment and retention. A student fee for transit could
be a possibility but the LFCC administration is very sensitive to raising student fees.
The pilot program would have to show high ridership levels to justify a student fee to
support the service.
Committee members indicated that they would like to distance this new effort from
the unsuccessful route that was tried several years ago, linking Winchester to LFCC.
Lord Fairfax Community College 1-4
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 1: Needs Assessment
The previous service was reported to have operated at irregular times and frequencies,
without input from LFCC, leading to rider dissatisfaction and poor performance.
Any new service will have to comply with ADA guidelines that require the service to
operate as a deviated fixed-route or as a fixed-route with a separate vehicle dedicated
to complementary ADA paratransit service.
LFCC Faculty and Staff
LFCC faculty and staff convened in September 2015 to discuss student and staff transportation
challenges. A wide range of topics was covered ranging from vehicle reliability issues to what
a potential service might look like. This discussion is summarized below.
A lack of transportation options is one of the major issues facing students. In addition
to reaching the LFCC campus, students also face barriers reaching employment
opportunities. Many families only own one vehicle and must prioritize who is able to
use it for the day. The work trip is usually chosen over the school trip.
The most common reasons for student withdrawals are transportation challenges;
either a vehicle break down, the inability to afford gas money, or losing a ride from a
friend or family member. Some students have openly admitted to LFCC staff that if
they only have one class on a particular day, it is not worth the transportation cost to
attend on that day.
There are currently 21 class locations for the adult education program. These multiple
locations are a direct result of the transportation challenges experienced by adult
education students. With a transit option available to students, the program could
potentially consolidate locations and offer a wider variety of classes.
An emerging trend among LFCC students are younger students enrolling without a
driver’s license, as the cost for someone under the age of 19 to obtain a license includes
the cost of a driver education course, which is not required for those aged 19 and older
(in Virginia).
Enrollment in online classes is growing, even as in-person enrollment has declined in
the last two years. It is suspected that transportation challenges are among the leading
catalysts for the growth in popularity of online classes. This may not the preferred way
to learn for many students, but is the most convenient for many.
LFCC depends heavily on work study students, some of whom experience
transportation challenges. In one case, an office lost a worker for almost three weeks
during the summer when their transportation arrangements fell through.
Lord Fairfax Community College 1-5
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 1: Needs Assessment
Having the option of public transportation could be seen as an employment benefit for
current and future employees.
Service is needed Monday through Friday from 7:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m. on hourly
headways. The need for service on Fridays is limited due to a smaller number of classes
offered.
The top priority for LFCC is service into Winchester, as it is home to a relatively large
concentration of LFCC students. Potential expansions could include Saturday service,
summer service, and additional shuttles to other cities and towns in the region.
Local High Schools
KFH Group conducted informational interviews with guidance counselors from area high
schools to determine transportation challenges for dual-enrollment and potential future
students. The results of these interviews are summarized below.
A prevailing trend for area high school students is waiting until after graduation to
acquire a driver’s license. As previously mentioned, once an individual is over the age
of 19 they do not have to enroll in a driver’s education course, which may be cost and
time prohibitive for some.
Any potential transit service to LFCC should connect with WinTran at the downtown
transfer station as there are many areas of need in Winchester.
It was suggested that transit fares should be a component of tuition as many students
qualify for financial aid, which could shoulder some of the cost of transportation for
the student.
Local high school counselors view the lack of public transportation as a barrier for
students to attend LFCC.
STUDENT/FACULTY/STAFF SURVEY
One of the major components used to help determine the level of need for transit services to
LFCC was the completion of both student/faculty/staff and community surveys (the
community survey results are analyzed in the following section). The student/faculty/staff
survey instrument was developed collaboratively among LFCC, WinFred MPO, and KFH
Group staff. The survey was provided in English and Spanish and made available online, via
Survey Monkey, and through paper copies that were distributed at key community locations.
Survey responses were received from November 5th to December 15th, 2015. A total of 315
surveys were received; including 313 in English and two in Spanish. The following section
Lord Fairfax Community College 1-6
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 1: Needs Assessment
9%
18%
43%
30%
Always Often Rarely Never
Figure 1-2: Is Transportation a Barrier?
provides some highlights from the survey. The survey instrument and a detailed analysis of
each question can be found in Appendix A.
Survey Participants
Just over 78 percent of the survey respondents identified as LFCC students. LFCC staff made
up the second largest group with nearly 13 percent of the surveys and LFCC faculty
represented seven percent of the survey respondents. Dual enrollment students represented
1.6 percent and GED/ESOL students represented 0.6 percent. Forty-three percent of the
respondents attend classes in person at the Middletown Campus, 32 percent take classes in
person and online, and eight percent took classes online only.
Transportation Barriers
When asked if transportation is a barrier to
reach the Middletown Campus, the majority of
respondents answered “rarely” (43%).
Approximately nine percent of respondents
“always” have a transportation barrier, 18
percent “often” have a transportation barrier,
and 30 percent indicated that transportation
was “never” a barrier. These results are
displayed in Figure 1-2. The top barrier for
respondents was the price of fuel (53%);
followed by not having an available vehicle
(17%) and depending upon others for a ride
(15%).
Ninety-one percent of respondents possess a
valid driver’s license and just over 81 percent
drive alone to the Middletown Campus. Approximately 12 percent typically receive a ride from
a friend or family member and fewer than four percent carpool.
Potential Transit Usage
When survey respondents were asked if they would use a transit service to get to and from the
Middletown Campus just over two-thirds (68%) indicated that they would use such a service.
Lord Fairfax Community College 1-7
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 1: Needs Assessment
Residency
Winchester was the residency location reported for 33 percent (103 responses) of the survey
respondents. This was followed by Stephens City with 13 percent (41 responses) and Front
Royal with 11 percent (34 responses). The locations with responses of three percent or more
are displayed in Figure 1-3.
Figure 1-3: Where Students, Faculty and Staff Live During School Semesters
Days and Times of Attendance
As shown in Figure 1-4, students, faculty, and staff typically visit the Middletown Campus
Monday through Thursday with Monday and Wednesday tied for the busiest day. Friday
garners just less than a third of the typical weekday and a handful of respondents visit on
Saturday.
33%
13%
11%
6% 5% 4% 3% 3%
23%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Lord Fairfax Community College 1-8
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 1: Needs Assessment
Figure 1-4: Days of the Week Students, Faculty and Staff Typically Visit the Middletown
Campus
Forty percent of respondents typically arrive at the Middletown Campus between 7:00 a.m.
and 9:00 a.m. and over one-third arrive between 9:00 a.m. and 12:00 p.m. (35%). The next
largest arrival time period is from 3:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. (11%), presumably for evening classes.
These results are displayed in Figure 1-5.
Figure 1-5: Typical Arrival Times for Students, Faculty and Staff
74% 72% 74%
70%
23%
8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
1%
40%
35%
10% 11%
4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Lord Fairfax Community College 1-9
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 1: Needs Assessment
Departure times are a little more dispersed. The majority of respondents, 37 percent, typically
leave campus between 3:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m.; however, a large number of respondents also
leave between 6:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. These responses are displayed in Figure 1-6.
Figure 1-6: Typical Departure Times for Students, Faculty, and Staff
Transit Priorities
Respondents were asked what the highest priority should be for a public transit service to and
from the Middletown Campus. This question allowed respondents to choose their top three
priorities; therefore the priorities listed on the following page are shown by the number of
responses and the total percent of respondents.
Top Five Priorities for a New Transit Service:
1. High frequency service (hourly or better) – 160 responses or 53% of respondents
2. Service to and from Winchester – 134 responses or 44% of respondents
3. Morning service before 8:00 a.m. – 115 responses or 38% of respondents
4. Evening service past 5:00 p.m. – 112 responses or 37% of respondents
5. Wi-Fi onboard buses – 73 responses or 24% of respondents
3%
16%
37%
30%
15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Lord Fairfax Community College 1-10
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 1: Needs Assessment
58%
42%
Yes No
Figure 1-8: Should Student Fees be Increased?
Fares
When asked if the potential transit service
should have a fare, respondents were fairly
divided with 55 percent in favor and 45
percent opposing a fare. This is shown in
Figure 1-7.
Top Five Suggested Fares:
1. $2.00 per trip – 24%
2. $1.00 per trip – 23%
3. $3.00 per trip– 16%
4. More than $3.00 per trip – 10%
5. Week, month, or semester pass – 8%
Those who did not favor a fare suggested that
the service should be free and waivers should
be used for low-income students.
Fees
The survey also asked if student fees should be increased to help pay for a transit program.
Respondents were divided with 58 percent in favor and 42 percent opposing a fee increase.
This data is displayed in Figure 1-8 on the following page.
Semester Fee Increase Breakdown:
1. $5.00 or less – 34%
2. $6.00 to $10.00 – 23%
3. $11.00 to $15.00 – 16%
4. $21.00 to $25.00 – 10%
5. More than $25.00 – 8%
6. $16.00 to $20.00 – 8%
Figure 1-7: Should the Service Have a Fare?
55%
45%
Yes No
Lord Fairfax Community College 1-11
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 1: Needs Assessment
Age of Survey Respondents
Approximately 50 percent of respondents were between the ages of 18 and 24 and seventeen
percent were between the ages of 25 and 34. These results are displayed in Figure 1-9.
Figure 1-9: Survey Respondent’s Age Range
General Comments
The comments portion of the survey generated mostly supportive responses. Most
commenters mentioned fuel savings and reduced vehicle maintenance costs for students,
helping those with no other means of transportation to attend LFCC, and alleviating parking
issues on campus. Interestingly enough, many respondents who indicated that they would not
use such a service were very supportive of creating one for those who would depend upon it.
Generally, the only complaints were from students who were not interested in the service and
do not want to pay higher student fees to support other’s use.
COMMUNITY SURVEY RESULTS
The community survey was open to all members of the general public. Similar to the student
and faculty survey, the community survey was also provided in English and Spanish and made
available online, via Survey Monkey, and through paper copies distributed around the
community. Survey responses were received from November 5th to December 15th, 2015. A
total of 337 surveys were received; including 210 in English and 127 in Spanish. This section
provides some highlights from the survey; the survey instrument and a detailed analysis of
each question can be found in Appendix B.
2%
50%
17%
13% 13%
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
17 or younger 18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 59 60 or older
Lord Fairfax Community College 1-12
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 1: Needs Assessment
Survey Respondents
Of the 337 respondents, 83 percent reported a connection with LFCC. The majority consisted
of students enrolled in the LFCC Adult Education Program (52% of respondents) while 19
percent are prospective students, and a combined total of 16 percent are either an LFCC
student, faculty, or staff member.
The average respondent lives in a fairly large household with an average of 4.3 residents. An
average household consists of one child under the age of 15, two individuals between the ages
of 19 and 44, and one individual aged 45 or older. Of these households, just below 10 percent
do not have a resident with a valid driver’s license. The majority of households have two
licensed drivers (43%). The breakdown of driver’s licenses per household is shown in Figure 1-
10.
Figure: 1-10: Number of Individuals in a Household with a Valid Driver’s License
Vehicle Availability
As shown in Figure 1-11, the number of available vehicles per household seems to closely
correlate with the number of driver’s licenses. The majority of households, 43 percent, have
two vehicles where 24 percent only have one. Six percent of households do not have a vehicle
available.
10%
26%
43%
13%
9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
0 1 2 3 4 or more
Lord Fairfax Community College 1-13
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 1: Needs Assessment
Figure 1-11: Number of Working Vehicles per Household
Residency
The community survey respondents primarily live in the Winchester – Frederick County area.
The most commonly reported zip code locations for survey respondents are shown below.
Top Five Respondent Zip Codes:
1. 22601 – Winchester, VA
2. 22602 – Frederick County, VA
3. 22664 – Woodstock, VA
4. 22655 – Frederick County- Stephens City area, VA
5. 22603 – Frederick County, VA
Modes of Transportation
Fifty-eight percent of respondents reported that they primarily drive alone for general life
trips, such as work and school. Seventeen percent ride with a friend or family member, and
approximately nine percent carpool.
6%
24%
44%
19%
8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0 1 2 3 4 or more
Lord Fairfax Community College 1-14
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 1: Needs Assessment
Opinion Regarding Potential LFCC Transit Service
Respondents were supportive of a potential
service linking LFCC to surrounding
communities with 92 percent in favor and
eight percent against. This result is shown in
Figure 1-12. The comments received for this
question were overwhelmingly supportive,
noting that many individuals do not have
access to a vehicle, lack a driver’s license, or
have to share one vehicle amongst family or
friends. Those who do not favor the service
doubt its usefulness and do not believe it
would be utilized.
To put the amount of support for a new
transit service in perspective it was
mentioned above that 92 percent of
respondents support the service but only 59
percent indicated that they would actually use
the service. This is shown in Figure 1-13. Of
those who would use the service, 33 percent
indicated that they would use it daily, and 28
percent would use the service between one
and four times per week, and 13 percent
would use the service when needed.
Transit Priorities
Respondents were then asked what the
highest priority should be for a public transit
service to and from the Middletown Campus.
This question allowed respondents to choose their top three priorities; therefore the priorities
listed below are shown by number of responses and the total percent of respondents.
Top Five Priorities for a New Transit Service:
1. Service to and from Winchester – 207 responses or 64% of respondents
2. High frequency service (hourly or better) – 141 responses or 44% of respondents
3. Morning service before 8:00 a.m. – 123 responses or 38% of respondents
4. Evening service past 5:00 p.m. – 121 responses or 38% of respondents
5. Service geared towards employment – 73 responses or 24% of respondents
Figure 1-12: Support a New Transit Service
92%
8%
For Against
Figure 1-13: Would Use the New Transit Service
59%
41%
Yes No
Lord Fairfax Community College 1-15
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 1: Needs Assessment
Suggestions were also sought for potential pickup and drop off locations in the region. Most
suggested locations in Winchester (68%), eight percent suggested Woodstock, and Front
Royal, Stephens City, and Strasburg garnered five percent a piece. The top suggested location
in Winchester was downtown along Loudoun Street with 28 percent of the total responses.
Fares
When asked what they would be willing to pay for a one-way fare, respondents mostly favored
a $1.00 fare. However, a combined total of 45 percent would be willing to pay a fare above
$1.00. These results are displayed in Figure 1-14.
Figure 1-14: What Fare Would You Be Willing to Pay for a One-Way Trip?
The survey also asked which days the service should operate. Eighty-five percent thought that
the service should run Monday through Friday with 16 percent supporting Saturday service
and six percent supporting Sunday service.
General Comments
The comment portion of the survey generated overwhelmingly supportive comments noting a
need for improved regional connectivity, the high costs associated with transportation, and
how a lack of transportation is holding those back who are attempting to better themselves
through education. Other comments included providing a mobile smart phone app for
tracking the buses, offering service to specific destinations, and the importance of direct and
convenient routing.
16%
7%
32%
6%
18%
21%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
$0.50 $0.75 $1.00 $1.25 $1.50 More than $1.50
Lord Fairfax Community College 1-16
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 1: Needs Assessment
ANALYSIS OF ENROLLMENT DATA
This section analyzes enrollment data provided by LFCC for the Middletown Campus and
online classes. Enrollment data was provided to the study team by LFCC for summer 2013, fall
2013, spring 2014, summer 2014, fall 2014, and spring 2015. Total enrollment at the Middletown
Campus is discussed, along with online, daily and hourly class trends, and a geographic
distribution of students based on their postal zip code.
In-Person and Online Enrollment
Figure 1-15 shows the total enrollment at LFCC’s Middletown campus from summer 2013 to
spring 2015. LFCC’s fall semester experiences the largest enrollment as compared to the spring
and summer semesters, with spring enrollment declining by about 1,000 students on average.
Summer enrollment is approximately 32 percent of average spring enrollment and 23 percent
of average fall enrollment. Depicted in Figure 1-15, in-person enrollment at LFCC’s
Middletown Campus has declined from 2013 to 2015. The most drastic comparison can be seen
from the 2014 to the 2015 spring semesters where there was a 38 percent decline in the
number of students enrolled. From the 2013 to the 2014 summer semester there was a 14
percent decline and from the 2013 to 2014 fall semester there was a six percent decline.
Figure 1-15: LFCC Middletown Campus Enrollment
LFCC’s online enrollment is increasing. Coincidentally, from the 2014 to the 2015 spring
semester there was a 38 percent increase in online enrollment. However, this 38 percent
increase totaled only 183 students whereas the 38 percent decline in in-person enrollment
totaled 1,460 students. Between the 2013 and 2014 fall semesters there was a 24 percent
1,092
4,552
3,885
939
4,294
2,425
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Spring Summer Fall
2013 2014 2015
Lord Fairfax Community College 1-17
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 1: Needs Assessment
increase in online enrollment and between the 2013 and 2014 summer semesters there was a 16
percent increase. This data is presented in Figure 1-16.
Figure 1-16: LFCC Online Enrollment
As seen in Figure 1-17, taken from a 2014 LFCC student survey, students are beginning to favor
a hybrid approach to class; where some classes are taken in-person and some are taken
online. As the figure shows, face-to-face classes are dropping in popularity from 70 percent in
2013 to 66 percent in 2014. The shift is slightly greater for dual-enrollment students where 78
percent favored face-to-face classes in 2013 and 72 percent in 2014.
Figure 1-17: Preferred Way of Taking Classes
Source: LFCC Student Survey, 2014
631
454 477
729
563
660
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Spring Summer Fall
2013 2014 2015
Lord Fairfax Community College 1-18
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Chapter 1: Needs Assessment
Daily and Hourly Enrollment Trends
As seen in Figure 1-18, LFCC students typically take classes Monday through Thursday. A very
small percentage attends classes on Friday, mainly during the fall and spring semesters. In
addition, a handful of students attend Saturday classes with an even smaller group attending
a Sunday class.
Figure 1-18: LFCC Middletown Campus Enrollment by Day of the Week
Figure 1-19 displays the total number of students enrolled in classes by hour. The graphic has
grouped all classes that begin within a one hour range together; for example a class starting at
11:00 a.m. is combined with a class starting at 11:30 a.m.
Figure 1-19: LFCC Middletown Campus Enrollment by Hour of the Day
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Summer 2014 Fall 2014 Spring 2015
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
7:00
AM
8:00
AM
9:00
AM
10:00
AM
11:00
AM
12:00
PM
1:00
PM
2:00
PM
3:00
PM
4:00
PM
5:00
PM
6:00
PM
7:00
PM
8:00
PM
9:00
PM
Summer 2014 Fall 2014 Spring 2015
Lord Fairfax Community College 1-19
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 1: Needs Assessment
While varying by semester, generally the most popular times for classes are during the 9:00
a.m., 11:00 a.m. and 7:00 p.m. hours. As seen in Table 1-1, popular class times in the fall and
spring semesters are very similar; with summer class times mainly in the evening hours.
However, the 9:00 a.m. hour was the most prevalent class time across all semesters.
Table 1-1: Top Five Enrollment Hours by Semester
Ranking Summer 2014 Fall 2014 Spring 2015
1
9:00 a.m.
(841)
9:00 a.m.
(2,887)
9:00 a.m.
(2,314)
2
6:00 p.m.
(521)
11:00 a.m.
(2,404)
11:00 a.m.
(2,232)
3 5:00 p.m.
(487)
1:00 p.m.
(1,869)
7:00 p.m.
(1,583)
4
7:00 p.m.
(431)
7:00 p.m.
(1,762)
2:00 p.m.
(1,513)
5
4:00 p.m.
(352)
2:00 p.m.
(1,758)
1:00 p.m.
(1,436)
Geographic Distribution of Enrollment
LFCC’s enrollment largely originates from the City of Winchester, Stephens City and the
western and southern areas of Frederick County. As seen in Figure 1-20, the large
agglomeration of “dark purple” zip codes located in Winchester and southern Frederick
County accounts for over 40 percent of the total enrollment at LFCC. Other notable areas
with large enrollment numbers include Front Royal, Berryville, Strasburg, Woodstock, and
Luray. The top five postal zip codes from the total enrollment data provided (Summer 2013
through Spring 2015) are shown below.
Top Five Student Zip Codes:
1. 22602 (Frederick County, VA) – 1,276 students or 15%
2. 22655 (Frederick County/Stephens City, VA) – 1,123 students or 13%
3. 22601 (Winchester, VA) – 1,037 students or 12%
4. 22630 (Front Royal, VA) – 983 students or 12%
5. 22603 (Frederick County, VA) – 473 students or 6%
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Figure 1-20: LFCC Middletown Enrollment by Zip Code – Summer 2013- Spring 2015
Source: Lord Fairfax Community College
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ANALYSIS OF DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
This section analyzes population and demographic data to assess the need for transit in the
Northern Shenandoah Valley. Data ranging from historical populations to autoless
households are documented and analyzed. Data sources for this information include the 2010
Census and the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.
Population Profile
Table 1-2 shows the census population counts from 1990 to 2010. From the 1990 to the 2010
Census, each of the region’s jurisdictions experienced population growth in the double digits.
Frederick County led the region with a population growth rate of 71 percent; adding over
30,000 individuals to the County’s population over the 20-year period. Other notable growth
rates include Warren County, with a growth rate of 44 percent, and Shenandoah County, with
a growth rate of 33 percent.
Table 1-2: Historical Populations
County 1990
Population
2000
Population
2010
Population
1990-2000
% Change
2000-2010
% Change
1990-2010
% Change
Clarke 12,101 12,652 14,034 4.6% 10.9% 16.0%
Frederick 45,723 59,209 78,305 29.5% 32.3% 71.3%
Page 21,690 23,177 24,042 6.9% 3.7% 10.8%
Shenandoah 31,636 35,075 41,993 10.9% 19.7% 32.7%
Warren 26,142 31,584 37,575 20.8% 19.0% 43.7%
Winchester city 21,947 23,585 26,203 7.5% 11.1% 19.4%
Source: United States Census Bureau
Table 1-3 shows the population projections from the University of Virginia’s Weldon Cooper
Center for Public Service. These data suggest that the region’s population growth will
continue into the upcoming decades. Frederick County is predicted to see the majority of the
population growth in the region with an estimated 86 percent growth rate from 2010 to 2040.
The historical and project population trends are displayed in Figure 1-21. As depicted in the
figure, all jurisdictions are experiencing population growth; however, Frederick County’s
population is expected to increase at a much faster rate than the other jurisdictions, with a
projected annual growth rate of just below three percent.
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Table 1-3: Future Population Projections
County 2010
Population
2020
Population
Estimate
2030
Population
Estimate
2040
Population
Estimate
2010-2040
Percent
Change
Clarke 14,034 15,025 15,871 16,631 18.5%
Frederick 78,305 97,192 119,419 145,938 86.4%
Page 24,042 24,995 25,895 26,716 11.1%
Shenandoah 41,993 45,829 49,045 52,104 24.1%
Warren 37,575 41,856 45,818 49,709 32.3%
Winchester city 26,203 27,967 29,449 30,781 17.5%
Source: United States Census Bureau and Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service
Figure 1-21: Historical and Projected Population Trends
Finally, population density is often a valuable indicator of where public transit services may
be feasible. While exceptions will always exist, as a general rule of thumb, areas with a density
of 2,000 or more persons per square mile will typically be able to support daily fixed route
transit service. Areas with densities below 2,000, but above 1,000 persons are generally
suitable for deviated routes while areas below 1,000 persons per square mile are typically
suited for demand response service.
As Figure 1-22 illustrates, areas with population densities above 2,000 persons per square mile
are primarily located in the City of Winchester and surrounding areas of Frederick County;
also including Stephens City. Outside of the Frederick County area, locations with high
population densities include Front Royal in Warren County and Luray in Page County.
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1990 Population 2000 Population 2010 Population 2020 Estimate 2030 Estimate 2040 Estimate
Clarke Frederick Page Shenandoah Warren Winchester city
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Figure 1-22: Population Density in the Study Area
Source: U.S. Census, 2010
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Target Population Groups
In addition to population data, this analysis also examined a select number of population
groups that may be potential riders for a LFCC Middletown campus shuttle. These groups
include young adults (aged 18 to 24); youth aged population (aged 10 to 17), autoless
households and individuals living below the federal poverty level.
To provide an objective measure when mapping the above mentioned population groups, a
relative measurement was used based on the study area’s average. For the purpose of this
study, the study area is defined as the Clarke, Frederick, Page, Shenandoah, and Warren
Counties as well as the City of Winchester. A threshold of low, elevated, moderate, high, and
very high was used for each demographic group. The low threshold consists of those block
groups with below average concentrations of a specific demographic group; while the very
high threshold consists of those block groups with more than twice the average
concentration. The thresholds elevated, moderate, and high make up the middle ground
between the average and twice the average and are divided into thirds.
Young Adults
Young adults, aged between 18 and 24 years old, make up the majority of students at LFCC.
Just over 50 percent of the respondents to the student and faculty survey fall within this
population group. Individuals between the ages of 18 and 24 may be splitting time between
class, jobs, and social activities where public transportation can provide a vital transportation
link. As shown in Figure 1-23, heavy concentrations of young adults reside in Winchester,
Stephens City, Front Royal, Strasburg, Woodstock, New Market, and unincorporated areas of
northern Frederick County and southern Page County. Approximately 20 percent of the study
area’s population is between the ages of 18 and 24.
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Figure 1-23: Young Adults (Aged 18 to 24)
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Autoless Households
Lacking access to an automobile was one of the major transportation barriers voiced by
survey respondents. Analyzing this segment of the population is crucial because many of the
region’s communities are too far from LFCC for non-motorized travel. Figure 1-24 provides a
visual representation of the region’s autoless households. As seen on the map, high and very
high concentrations of autoless households exist in Winchester, northern Frederick County,
Front Royal, Strasburg, Toms Brook, Woodstock, New Market, and northern Page County.
Just over four percent of the area’s households do not have access to a vehicle.
One Vehicle Households
As mentioned above, lacking access to transportation options is a challenge for some LFCC
students. For students who live in single vehicle households where employment is the top
priority for the family, the employment trip typically outweighs the need for the student to
take the car for the day to drive to campus. As displayed in Figure 1-25, concentrations of one
vehicle households are found in and around Winchester, Stephens City, Strasburg, Front
Royal, Woodstock, and New Market. Approximately 10 percent of the region’s households
have access to only one vehicle.
Below Poverty
Those living at or below the poverty level may face financial hardships that make the
ownership and maintenance of a personal vehicle difficult, and thus may be more inclined to
depend on public transportation. As seen in Figure 1-26, below poverty populations are
scattered across the region. Notable concentrations are located throughout the City of
Winchester, Strasburg, Woodstock, Mount Jackson, and large portions of Page County. Just
below 11 percent of the study area’s population lives at or below the federal poverty level. This
is very similar to the statewide poverty level of 11.7%.1
Transit Dependence Index
The transit dependence index (TDI) provides an aggregate measure of transit need that is
based on Census data including population density, autoless households, senior populations,
youth populations, and below poverty populations. Each of the TDI’s factors, except senior
populations, was analyzed previously in this section. Similar to those demographic groups,
the TDI utilizes the overall average of each demographic group and then combines those
averages to create the TDI index. Figure 1-27 displays the TDI for the region. As seen in the
map, high and very high concentrations of transit need are located in Winchester, Stephens
City, Berryville, Front Royal, and the Edinburg/Woodstock area.
1 “Virginia Performs,” Virginia.gov, 1/11/16.
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Figure 1-24: Autoless Households
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Figure 1-25: One Vehicle Households
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Figure 1-26: Below Poverty
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Figure 1-27: Transit Dependence Index
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REVIEW OF PREVIOUS PLANS AND STUDIES
This section reviews recent plans and studies that address the transportation needs pertinent
to LFCC students, faculty, and staff. While the majority of the plans reviewed are specific to
transportation, some plans also cover broader issues and planning efforts.
“Achieve 2015,” Lord Fairfax Community College, Strategic Plan, 2010 -
2015
Beginning in 2009, LFCC conducted a six-year strategic planning process that resulted in
“Achieve 2015,” LFCC’s 2010-2015 Strategic Plan. The plan included the following strategic
initiatives and desired outcomes:
Access – LFCC will increase enrollment, especially focusing on the number of
underserved students.
Affordability – LFCC will reduce costs and increase the amount of financial aid
awarded to students.
Infrastructure – LFCC will address space and facilities needs and implement ways to
become green.
Organizational Development – LFCC will streamline, improve decision-making, and
promote one college.
Resources- LFCC will be transparent, build relationships, and seek grants.
Student Success – LFCC will improve retention and provide more learning
opportunities.
In reviewing the specific objectives that were listed for each of these initiatives, helping to
facilitate transportation to campus was not listed; however, transportation assistance is
compatible with LFCC’s strategic initiatives of access, infrastructure, and student success.
Lord Fairfax Community College - Middletown Campus Master Plan
The four primary goals of the LFCC Campus Master Plan for the Middletown Campus are
summarized below:
Take advantage of the natural features and organize buildings and circulation patterns
to celebrate and engage those features while better utilizing available buildable area;
Improve the “first impression” of the campus as approached by car by creating a
campus front lawn;
Locate buildings to define legible networks of pathways and open space to establish a
memorable sense of place, while defining and connecting distinct campus districts.
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Plan for adequate parking and vehicular circulation including building service areas
while prioritizing the pedestrian experience.
While these goals to do not specifically address public transportation, they do emphasize the
desire to maximize the natural features of the site and provide networks of pathways. The
near-term plan includes additional surface parking, while the long-term plan includes
additional surface parking, as well as a parking structure.
The extent to which a transit program could reduce the need for additional parking may be a
consideration for future updates to the Campus Master Plan. This strategy is compatible with
the master plan’s focus on retention of natural features and view sheds.
Frederick County, Virginia, 2030 Comprehensive Plan
The policies included in the transportation section of Frederick County’s Comprehensive Plan
generally focus on roadways; however, a “complete streets” policy is included, as well as a
policy that states, “Provide cost effective alternatives to automobile travel as needed, for the
elderly, disabled, and work force.” The implementation strategies associated with this policy
advocate for coordinating with existing agencies such as the Shenandoah Area Agency on
Aging and Access Independence to secure outside funding to enhance service for senior
citizens and people with disabilities, as well as making use of MPO resources to identify areas
of most critical need.
City of Winchester Comprehensive Plan – 2011
Winchester’s most recent comprehensive plan was adopted in 2011, with an amendment
adopted in 2014. Chapter Six of the plan focuses on mobility, with the following vision:
“A walkable community vision”
“Being able to get around Winchester is a key part of quality of life. Having mobility choices
means residents, workers and visitors can drive, ride a bus, bike, or walk around the city.
Every option feels safe, efficient, and right for a certain kind of task.”
There are a number of bullets that describe specific examples of this vision, including the
following: “some students walk or bike between Shenandoah University and the downtown
while others catch a bus from the city to Lord Fairfax Community College.”
To support this vision, the City Council developed twelve citywide mobility objectives to
support the citywide goal of “Create and maintain a safe, efficient, and environmentally
sustainable mobility and transportation network that is interconnected, multi-modal, and
that facilitates walkable urban land use patterns less dependent on personal vehicle use.”
Two of the specific objectives directly address the need to extend a public transportation link
to Lord Fairfax Community College, including:
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Objective 3 –Encourage the use of alternate modes of mobility including walking,
bicycling, and public transportation by all sectors of the population to reduce the
dependency upon private automobile use. As part of this objective, the plan
specifically states, “Implement the recommendations of the MPO’s 2009 Transit
Services Plan.” This plan included an increase in frequency for WinTran routes, as well
as extending WinTran into Frederick County’s urbanized area to serve the needs of
both city and county residents and visitors.
Objective 8 – Work closely with Frederick County and Stephens City to extend public
transportation between the City and destinations such as Lord Fairfax Community
College, the DMV, the Virginia Employment Commission, and the regional detention
facilities, as well as the urbanizing areas of the County and the Town. As part of this
objective, the plan states, “Implement the operational changes and undertake the
capital expenses needed to develop a truly regional transit service that allows City
residents to access services beyond the limits of existing transit routes.”
City of Winchester, 2016-2020 Strategic Plan
The City of Winchester recently completed a strategic planning process to study and endorse
broad issues of organizational direction and propose specific implementation goals. The
mission of the Strategic Plan is, “To provide a safe, vibrant, sustainable community while
striving to constantly improve the quality of life for our citizens and economic partners.”
There are four goals outlined in the Strategic Plan. These are:
1. Encourage sustainable economic growth and partnerships through business and
workforce development.
2. Promote and accelerate revitalization of catalyst sites and other areas throughout the
city.
3. Advance the quality of life for all Winchester residents.
4. Improve city services and advance the strategic plan goals by promoting a culture of
transparency, efficiency, and innovation.
Goal #1 is the most directly related to supporting the concept of providing a link to LFCC, as
the first specific strategy listed focuses on supporting a comprehensive workforce
development strategy. One of the action items listed for this strategy is to work with
Winchester Public Schools and other organizations to identify and reduce barriers allowing
residents to utilize existing resources and improve basic skills.
WinTran Transit Development Plan, 2011
WinTran’s most recent transit development plan (TDP) was completed in 2011. The six-year
plan included the following recommendations:
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Minor changes to the fixed routes to improve efficiencies
Route adjustments within the city to better meet the needs of the riders
A downtown trolley circulator
Extensions of the fixed routes along the major service corridors into Frederick County
Improved passenger amenities and infrastructure
WinTran has been able to implement the minor changes and route adjustments and has
improved passenger amenities and infrastructure. Funding has not been available for a
downtown circulator or for the route extensions into Frederick County.
Winchester-Frederick County MPO, Transit Services Plan
In 2009, the WinFred MPO completed a Transit Services Plan. This was the first major transit
planning effort by the MPO, which was created in 2003 when the City of Winchester and
parts of Frederick County were designated as “urbanized” by the Census Bureau. The
following recommendations were included in the plan:
1. WinTran fixed-route transit service extensions and adjustments- these improvements
focused on improving the current transit program and extending routes from the City
into the urbanized areas of the County.
2. Countywide demand-response public transportation.
3. Corridor service on Route 11, including service from the City of Winchester to Stephens
City and Lord Fairfax Community College.
4. Regional corridor service through the I-81/Route 11 corridor throughout the
Shenandoah Valley.
5. Commuter infrastructure and services- to Northern Virginia and Washington, DC.
This plan is referenced in the City of Winchester’s Comprehensive Plan. Since the completion
of this plan, some improvements have been made to WinTran’s routes and schedules, and
there has been an increase in the level of demand-response transportation provided in the
region through the Shenandoah Area Agency on Aging’s transportation program.
Northern Shenandoah Valley Regional Commission Coordinated Human
Service Mobility Plan (September 2013)
The Northern Shenandoah Valley’s Coordinated Human Service Mobility Plan provides a
basis for transportation coordination in the region. The plan is largely tailored for human
service transportation providers, but a number of the documented needs and strategies are
pertinent to this study. One of the most noteworthy needs in the plan is providing access to
evening GED, ESL and college classes. LFCC’s Adult Education students routinely face
challenges in attending evening classes. Another need is expanding transportation options in
the evenings for access to classes and employment opportunities.
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Some suggested strategies from the plan include establishing a central point of access for
transit services, for example the WinTran transfer station in downtown Winchester.
Implementing new public transportation services and providing service on a more frequent
basis is also listed. The plan also stresses the importance of bringing new funding partners
into public transit. These partners may include hospitals, employers, or retailers who may be
willing to finance a portion of the cost of transporting riders to their facilities.
REVIEW OF PUBLIC TRANSIT AT COMMUNITY COLLEGES IN VIRGINIA
There are 23 public community colleges in the Commonwealth of Virginia, serving students at
40 different physical locations. In order to learn about the public transportation options
available for community college students in the Commonwealth, research concerning the
availability of public transportation for each of the 23 colleges was conducted. Through this
research the study team learned that:
There is regularly scheduled public or school-provided transportation available at 19 of
the 23 colleges. An additional three have some limited options.
LFCC is the only community college that does not have any public transportation
options.
Of the 23 colleges, nine are in Census-designated urbanized areas, and the remaining
14 are in Census-designated rural areas, including LFCC.
Three of the four colleges with limited or no public transportation options are in rural
areas.
Of the 19 colleges where transportation is available, eight offer no subsidy or discount
for students who use the service. For students of six of the colleges, transportation to
access the campus is free. Discounted transportation services are offered for students
of another four of the colleges. There are also likely to be additional programs that
offer transportation subsidies (similar to some of LFCC’s gas card assistance programs),
and these are not reflected in this research, with the exception of Danville.
Northern Virginia Community College is the only one of Virginia’s community colleges
that offers its own transportation services, which are free for students to ride and are
not open to the public.
A listing of Virginia’s public community colleges and public transportation availability is
provided in Table 1-4.
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Table 1-4: Public Community Colleges in Virginia and Transit Availability
Community College Public Transit Availability
Blue Ridge VRT/BRITE, pre-paid fares
Central Virginia GLTC, no subsidy
Dabney S. Lancaster Mountain Express- RADAR, no subsidy
Danville Danville Transit, subsidy for particular programs
Eastern Shore Star Transit, pre-paid fares/discounted fares
Germanna FRED, pre-paid fares
J. Sargeant Reynolds GRTC, no subsidy
John Tyler Limited, GRTC, no subsidy
Lord Fairfax None available
Mountain Empire Four County Transit, students ride free (local government contribution)
New River Pulaski Area Transit, discount
Northern Virginia NOVA operates its own shuttle service that is free to students.
Patrick Henry PART - RADAR, no subsidy
Paul D. Camp I-RIDE, no subsidy, looking at issue
Piedmont Virginia CAT, no subsidy
Rappahannock Bay Transit, no subsidy
Southside Virginia Blackstone Area Bus, Lake Area Bus, some subsidy
Southwest Virginia Four County Transit, students ride free (local government contribution)
Thomas Nelson HRT- Hampton- discounted goPass;
WATA - Williamsburg, no current subsidy; previous subsidy to WATA
Tidewater HRT- discounted goPass
Virginia Highlands Limited through District Three Public Transit, no subsidy
Virginia Western Valley Metro, no subsidy
Wytheville Limited through District Three Public Transit, no subsidy
Source: Internet research and staff knowledge of systems
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STUDENT FEES AT COMMUNITY COLLEGES IN VIRGINIA
One of the ways in which public transportation for community college students is funded is
through the collection of fees that are used to pre-pay fares so that students can ride to
campus without paying a fare directly. In order to research these fees, the fee structures for
in-state students at each of the 23 colleges was collected and analyzed.
This research indicated that the mean total in-state per credit fees at Virginia’s community
colleges is $12.83 per credit hour, including the $8.50 technology fee that is charged by each of
the schools. LFCC’s per credit fees, assuming a 12-credit course load, are slightly higher than
the mean at $12.90 per credit hour. It should be noted that both LFCC and John Tyler
Community College have lump-sum fees that are the same for one credit as they are for a full
academic load. Both of these fees were analyzed assuming a 12-credit course load. LFCC’s is
called an auxiliary fee and is $27.00 per semester. John Tyler’s is called a comprehensive fee
and is $35.00 per semester.
The highest per credit fees are found at Rappahannock Community College ($19.65),
Tidewater Community College ($17.65), and Germanna Community College ($17.00). Of these
three, two provide either discounted transit fares (Tidewater- HRT) or pre-paid transit fares
(Germanna- FRED). The total fees at NOVA, the only school that provides its own
transportation service, are slightly higher than the mean at $13.10 per credit (though NOVA
has a significantly higher student population than any of the other colleges).
Four of the 23 colleges bundle their fees such that it is not possible to break out the individual
programs that are funded through the fees, including Blue Ridge Community College, which
is a nearby example of college-subsidized public transportation.
Not including the mandated technology fee, the most common fee among the colleges is a
student activity fee. Six of the colleges have a specific parking fee; and 12 have fees with
facilities, institution, or auxiliary in the title. Determining the exact services that are funded
through these fees was beyond the scope of this research.
Table 1-5 provides a list of the public community colleges in Virginia, along with the data
analyzed above.
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Table 1-5: In-State Public Community College Fees in Virginia
Tech.Student
Activity
Parking
Aux.
Facilities
Auxiliary Inst.Aux.
Blue Ridge CC Verona R 2,837
Central Virginia CC Lynchburg U 8.50$ 6.50$ 15.00$ 2,611 469,980$
Dabney S. Lancaster CC Clifton Forge R 8.50$ 3.00$ 11.50$ 723 99,774$
Danville CC Danville R 8.50$ 1.50$ 1.00$ 11.00$ 2,373 313,236$
Eastern Shore CC Melfa R 8.50$ 2.00$ 2.00$ 12.50$ 489 73,350$
Germanna CC Fredericksburg U 8.50$ 1.50$ 1.50$ 5.50$ 17.00$ 4,503 918,612$
J. Sargeant Reynolds CC Richmond (3 locations)U 7,469
John Tyler CC Chester & Midlothian U 8.50$ 11.41$ 5,543 758,948$
Lord Fairfax CC (2)Middletown R 8.50$ 2.15$ 27.00$ 12.90$ 4,012 621,058$
Mountain Empire CC Big Stone Gap R 8.50$ 1.00$ 2.00$ 11.50$ 1,745 240,810$
New River CC Dublin R 8.50$ 1.25$ 1.30$ 11.05$ 2,888 382,949$
Northern Virginia CC Multiple locations U 8.50$ 3.60$ 1.00$ 13.10$ 34,586 5,436,919$
Patrick Henry CC Martinsville R 8.50$ 2.83$ 11.33$ 2,052 278,990$
Paul D. Camp CC Franklin R 8.50$ 1.40$ 0.75$ 10.65$ 780 99,684$
Piedmont Virginia CC Charlottesville U 8.50$ 2.90$ 1.75$ 13.15$ 3,003 473,873$
Rappahannock CC Middle Peninsula/Northern
Neck R 8.50$ 2.75$ 5.00$ 3.40$ 19.65$ 1,848 435,758$
Southside Virginia CC Several campuses R 8.50$ 1.25$ 2.50$ 12.25$ 3,264 479,808$
Southwest Virginia CC Cedar Bluff R 8.50$ 2.00$ 10.50$ 1,787 225,162$
Thomas Nelson CC Hampton & Williamsburg U 8.50$ 0.85$ 1.85$ 11.20$ 6,513 875,347$
Tidewater CC Chesapeake, Portsmouth,
Norfolk, VA Beach U 8.50$ 2.55$ 6.30$ 17.35$ 18,673 3,887,719$
Virginia Highlands CC Abingdon R 8.50$ 2.00$ 1.00$ 11.50$ 1,614 222,732$
Virginia Western CC Roanoke U 8.50$ 4,961
Wytheville CC Wytheville R 8.50$ 1.00$ 1.00$ 1.50$ 12.00$ 1,963 282,672$
Mean 12.83$ 5,054 778,080$
Total Fees
Based on 12
credits
(1) Based on 12 credit hours
(2) The auxiliary fee is a flat $27 (i.e., for one credit, up to 22 credits).
For the purposes of comparison, it was divided by 12 credits for the total fee column. Source: Internet research
Name Location Urban/
Rural
Total
Fees Per
Credit
2014-2015
FTE
Bundled with tuition
Bundled with tuition
$35 comprehensive per semester fee (1)
In-State Fees Per Credit
Bundled with tuition
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Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 1: Needs Assessment
SUMMARY
The transit needs data collected and analyzed for this chapter affirmed from several sources
that there is a need for a public transportation program to serve the Middletown campus of
Lord Fairfax Community College, with the highest demand for service likely being a
connection to Winchester and Stephens City. Highlights from both the qualitative and
quantitative data that support this need are summarized below.
Staff members from LFCC as well as high school counselors indicated that the lack of
public transportation is a barrier for students to enroll and to stay enrolled at LFCC.
Twenty-seven percent of the student/faculty/staff survey respondents indicated that
the lack of transportation is either always or often a barrier.
Sixty-eight percent of the student/faculty/staff survey respondents indicated that they
would use public transportation to access the campus if it were available.
About 33% of the student/faculty/staff survey respondents reported that they live in
the Winchester- Frederick County area and the majority travels to campus Monday
through Thursday, arriving between 7:00 a.m. and 12:00 p.m.
The results of the community survey indicated that 92% were in favor of the service
and 59% indicated that they would use the service. Service between LFCC and
Winchester was listed as the highest priority.
The enrollment data show that 33% of the students live in the Winchester –Frederick
County area, similar to what was reported via the survey.
The transit dependence index shows relatively high transit needs in Winchester,
Stephens City, Front Royal and just south of Woodstock.
One of LFCC’s stated goals is improved access, and several of the previous planning
efforts in the region specifically highlight the need to connect LFCC to Winchester via
public transportation.
LFCC is the only community college in Virginia that is not served by public
transportation.
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Chapter 2: Existing Services and Potential Options
Chapter 2
Existing Services in the Region and
Potential Organizational and Service
Options
INTRODUCTION
The previous chapter demonstrated a need for public transportation service to Lord Fairfax
Community College (LFCC) through demographic data, student and community surveys, and
enrollment data. This second chapter outlines the existing transportation providers in the
region, including information pertinent to providing transit service to LFCC, and develops
organizational and service options that could potentially be implemented to provide public
transportation service for the LFCC community. These options were discussed with the
stakeholder group prior to developing the plan provided in Chapter 3.
EXISTING TRANSPORTATION PROVIDERS IN THE REGION
Winchester Transit System (WinTran)
WinTran provides public transportation primarily within the City of Winchester. Six fixed
routes are offered (using three vehicles, with interlined routes), along with a trolley route and
ADA complementary paratransit. The fixed routes meet for transfer opportunities at the
Boscawen Street downtown transfer center. The fixed routes operate Monday through Friday
from 6:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. and on Saturdays from 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. The trolley operates
Monday, Wednesday, and Friday from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. and on Saturdays from 10:00
a.m. to 4:00 p.m. The WinTran fixed route service map is provided as Figure 2-1.
The program is operated directly by the city, out of a relatively new transit facility, co-located
with the city’s public works department off of Cork Street. For FY16, the annual operating
budget was $989,524. Funding and revenue to support the program comes from fares
($84,800); advertising ($2,500); FTA’s S. 5307 program ($452,362); DRPT operating assistance
($165,364); and local general funds ($284,524). The base fare is $1.00 per trip. FY15 operating
statistics for WinTran are provided in Table 2-1.
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Chapter 2: Existing Services and Potential Options
Figure 2-1: WinTran Fixed Routes
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Table 2-1: WinTran FY15 Operating Data
WinTran - FY15 Data
Annual Operating Costs $892,181
Annual Vehicle Revenue Hours 18,119
Annual Vehicle Revenue Miles 189,821
Passenger Trips 126,122
Trips/Hour 6.96
Cost/Hour $49.24
Cost/Trip $7.07
Source: WinTran
Connection to LFCC
The need to connect the City of Winchester and Lord Fairfax Community College was
discussed within the WinTran TDP, but funding was not available for this route extension at
the time.
Regardless of the operating entity, it will be important for any new LFCC route to connect
with WinTran’s fixed route service network, most likely at the Boscawen Street downtown
transfer center.
Shenandoah Area Agency on Aging
The Shenandoah Area Agency on Aging (SAAA) offers a variety of services for senior citizens
and people with disabilities, with the goal of allowing people to live independently.
In support of this mission, the SAAA operates a fairly extensive transportation program in the
Northern Shenandoah Valley. The transportation program has two primary facets: service to
support the region’s active living centers; and WellTran, which provides transportation for
both senior citizens and people with disabilities for primarily medical trips.
Active Living Center Transportation
Transportation is provided so that senior citizens can access the following active living
centers:
Clarke County Active Living Center, Berryville
Frederick County - United Methodist Church, Stephens City
Page County – Fellowship Hall of Christ Episcopal Church
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Chapter 2: Existing Services and Potential Options
Shenandoah County –Edinburg
Warren County – Front Royal
Winchester- Winchester Parks and Recreation (Cork Street)
Of the agency’s 34 vehicles, 24 are used for the active living center-based services, which also
include meal delivery. The active living center fleet is primarily comprised of body-on-chassis
vehicles. The fleet is dispersed, with most of the vehicles stored within the community in
which they are based.
WellTran
The WellTran service provides demand-response transportation for senior citizens and people
with disabilities, with funding assistance through the Federal Transit Administration’s Section
5310 program, DRPT and local sources. There are 10 minivans in the WellTran fleet. Part-time
drivers are used to provide the service.
While the majority of the WellTran trips are for medical purposes, WellTran does provide
transportation between Berryville and LFCC three days a week for a student who uses a
wheelchair.
There are currently 620 individual clients who use the WellTran service, which provides
between 11,000 and 12,000 annual passenger trips. There are a number of WellTran clients
who reside in the Route 11 corridor.
The fare to ride is $4.00 for the first 20 miles, and $0.50 per mile after that. For riders who
cannot afford the fare, there is a sliding payment schedule that coincides with the rider’s
income.
In FY16, the total operating budget for the WellTran program was $410,840.
The transportation manager for the SAAA indicated that the agency is not currently in a
position to expand service, but is interested in coordinating with any new services that may
be implemented to accommodate the needs of LFCC students, faculty and staff.
Virginia Regional Transit
Virginia Regional Transit (VRT) is a non-profit public transportation company that operates
transit services in a number of locations throughout Virginia. In some cases, VRT is the
federal/state grantee and in other cases VRT has a contractual relationship with a public
entity to provide service. In the Shenandoah Valley there are several programs operated by
VRT. These are outlined below.
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Chapter 2: Existing Services and Potential Options
Clarke County
VRT operates a general public demand response service in Clarke County. The service is
operated Monday to Friday between 9:00 a.m. and 1:00 p.m. (end time approximate). The fare
for the service is $1.00 per trip. This service operates throughout Clarke County, with service
into Frederick County and the City of Winchester.
The Clarke County program provides about 1,500 passenger trips annually, operating just over
1,000 annual service hours. VRT’s system-wide average operating cost per hour for the Central
Virginia services provided is about $58.00 per hour, with significant cost variations between
local systems.1
The transit development plan (TDP) prepared in 2015 for the West Central Virginia region
included a recommendation to increase the number of service hours for the Clarke County
demand-response service so that service is provided until 3:00 p.m., and then 5:00 p.m., rather
than the current 1:00 p.m. A specific year was not associated with this proposed improvement.
Front Royal Area Transit
Front Royal Area Transit (FRAT) provides fixed route shuttle service in the Town of Front
Royal and limited service into Warren County. This service operates a north and a south loop
route, on one-hour headways, Monday through Friday from 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. Saturday
service consists of one route that circulates the downtown portion of Front Royal from 1:00
p.m. to 6:00 p.m. on 30-minute headways. Sunday service operates from 1:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.
on one-hour headways. FRAT Trolley’s map can be seen in Figure 2-2.
FRAT provides about 17,000 annual passenger trips, operating just over 4,000 annual revenue
service hours. The reported operating cost per hour for FRAT is about $46 per revenue hour.2
The West Central TDP included some future expansion projects for the Front-Royal-based
service, including limited service to LFCC (three trips per day) and service from Front Royal
north on along the US340 Corridor to the Virginia Inland Port and the Rappahannock
Shenandoah Warren (RSW)Regional Jail. Weekday service from Front Royal to the Walmart
and Target shopping areas near the U.S. 340/I-66 interchange was also included in the plan.
Currently these areas are served only on Sundays.
1 VRT System Manager
2 Transit Development Plan for VRT West Central Virginia Region, 2015.
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Figure 2-2: Front Royal Area Transit’s (FRAT) Deviated Fixed Routes
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Connection to LFCC
If services are provided from the Front Royal area to LFCC, it will be important that the
services make a direct connection to FRAT to maximize the mobility options for area
students.
Blue Ridge Community College Shuttle
While not in the immediate region, we have included service information about the BRCC
Shuttle, as it is a relevant example of community college/ public transit service in the
Shenandoah Valley.
There are two routes that comprise the Blue Ridge Community College Shuttle – the BRCC
North and the BRCC South. The BRCC North connects the college’s campus near Weyers
Cave to Harrisonburg and James Madison University. On the southbound trip, the route also
serves the Towns of Dayton and Bridgewater, and Bridgewater College. Given the time
constraints, the northbound trip is express in nature, using I-81 between Verona and
Harrisonburg.
The BRCC South connects the campus to Staunton, with a few stops along the way, including
Verona, which is the county seat of Augusta County. The BRCC South makes timed
connections in Staunton with the local Staunton circulator routes and the 250 Connector,
which provides service to Waynesboro.
For college students the fare is pre-paid. The general public fare is $0.50 per trip.
The BRCC North provides about 31,500 annual passenger trips, offering about 3,500 annual
revenue service hours. The BRCC South provides about 38,800 annual passenger trips,
offering about 3,300 annual revenue service hours. The cost to provide service is just under
$59 per operating hour.3 While ridership is significantly higher during the fall and spring
semesters, the service is offered year-round and is used by the general public.
The Blue Ridge Community College Shuttle was initiated as a contractual service between the
college and VRT. As public transportation in the Central Shenandoah area grew, the program
was linked with several other services also operated by VRT, including the Staunton Trolley,
the Route 250 Connector to Waynesboro, the Waynesboro Circulator, and the 340 Connector.
Prior to 2012, the federal funding used to support these programs came from the rural S.5311
program. As a result of the 2010 Census, the City of Staunton, the City of Waynesboro, and
much of the corridor in between became an urbanized area. As such, the federal funding for
these areas shifted from S.5311 to S.5307. This shift required that a public agency serve as a
grantee for the funds.
3 Data collected for the CSPDC 2015 TDP.
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Chapter 2: Existing Services and Potential Options
The Central Shenandoah Planning District Commission stepped up to fulfill the role of public
transit grantee for the region for the S.5307 funds, while the S.5311 funds continue to be
awarded to VRT for the rural services, including the Blue Ridge Community College Shuttle.
Over the next year or two, the grantee for the rural program in the Central Shenandoah Valley
is also expected to transition to the CSPDC.
ORGANIZATIONAL AND GRANT ADMINISTRATION OPTIONS
Organizational options refer to the ways in which public transportation service to LFCC could
be administered and managed. There are two primary options that could be pursued for the
implementation of service. These are:
Grant administration conducted by the City of Winchester or another public entity in
the operating region, with the operation of service contracted to a private for- profit or
private non-profit entity. Funding agreements among local participating jurisdictions
and entities would need to be developed for the required local match, assuming federal
and state funds were available.
Grant administration and direct operation of service conducted by the City of
Winchester or another public entity in the operating region. Funding agreements
among local participating jurisdictions and entities would need to be developed for the
required local match, assuming federal and state funds were available.
Additional more complex options, such as the development of a regional transit district or
authority may be considered for the future, but are not likely to be necessary in the short to
mid-term. The two options introduced above are discussed in this section.
Grant Administration Options
Federal and state transit grant funding is likely to be needed in order for service to be
implemented. Service to the campus may be eligible for a mix of federal S.5311 (rural transit
funds) and federal S.5307 (urban transit funds), depending upon the route. State transit
funding may also be available. Routes that originate within the City of Winchester and/or the
surrounding urbanized area could be subsidized in part with urbanized area grant funds,
while routes originating in rural areas could be subsidized in part with rural funds. Additional
details regarding potential funding options are provided on page 2-21.
The first step in the grant application process will be to decide which public entity should
lead the process by serving as the grant applicant. For this project, the grant applicant could
be:
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The City of Winchester
Frederick County
The Northern Shenandoah Valley Regional Commission
Under any of these scenarios, there would need to be agreements in place to cover the local
share for any federal/state grant funding applications.
The City of Winchester
The City of Winchester is the current local grantee for federal S.5307 funds and DRPT state
funding assistance. These programs help support WinTran, which currently provides service
exclusively within the Winchester Urbanized Area. For any transit services that originate
within the urbanized area and are eligible (at least in part) for S.5307 funds, it makes sense
that the City would be the grant applicant for the following reasons:
The City is the designated recipient for these funds for the Winchester Urbanized
Area.
The City has the administrative grants management infrastructure in place to receive
and manage FTA S.5307 funding.
The City is familiar with the program, including the compliance and grant reporting
requirements.
The City has an existing fleet of FTA-funded vehicles.
The City could also be eligible to receive rural transit funding if the route(s) provided service
within designated rural areas. Federal rural transit funding is administered through DRPT,
which is the designated recipient for federal rural transit funding in Virginia, with local
entities serving as sub-recipients.
Frederick County
Frederick County could also serve as the grant applicant for rural transit funding in the
region. This option may make sense if the county is considering the implementation of any
other rural transit programs. Frederick County is not currently an FTA grant sub-recipient,
and would have to set up the grant administration mechanism, including the compliance and
grant reporting functions. While the county does not have transit program operating
experience, they likely do have public fleet management experience and grants management
experience through other programs.
The only FTA grant-funded services that currently operate in the county are operated by
private non-profit agencies (Welltran – S.5310 for seniors and people with disabilities; and
VRT – limited, originating in Clarke County).
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Chapter 2: Existing Services and Potential Options
Northern Shenandoah Valley Regional Commission
As a regional public entity, NSVRC could also serve as the grant applicant for rural transit
funding in the region. NSVRC has FTA/DRPT grants administration experience through its
transportation demand management (TDM) program, as well as through the Winchester-
Frederick County Metropolitan Planning Organization’s (WinFred MPO) FTA S.5303 planning
program. NSVRC does not have direct transit operating or fleet ownership experience.
Operator Options
In addition to deciding which local entity should manage the grant administration functions,
it will also be necessary to decide how the service will be operated. The two basic mechanisms
are:
Directly-operated by employees
Contractor-operated
Directly-Operated
Under this model, the entity that serves as the grantee for the program would also directly
hire and supervise the employees that provide the service, as well as procure the vehicles. For
example, if the City of Winchester were to be the grantee, WinTran would apply for the
necessary vehicles through the grant process and hire additional staff to expand their
operations to include this service.
Contractor-Operated
Under the contractor model, the entity that administers the grant would prepare a request for
proposals to solicit a contractor to operate the service. The contractor could be a private non-
profit or for-profit entity. The contractor would hire and supervise the drivers, performing all
day to day transit management functions for the route(s). The vehicles could be owned by
either the oversight entity or the contractor.
Discussion of Organizational Options
The simplest option to implement service from the Winchester area to LFCC would be for
WinTran to expand their services, using the existing public transit infrastructure. This would
take advantage of the transit resources already in place and ensure the linkage between
WinTran and the new service is in place. This option assumes that WinTran is in a position
to expand service and the City is interested in providing this service.
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Chapter 2: Existing Services and Potential Options
For service to LFCC from other parts of the region, it may make more sense for the grantee to
be a regional entity that oversees one or more local contractors for service, or a local operator
that is already in place. For example, if there is a service from Front Royal, it may make sense
for VRT to apply for additional funds to add the route, as they are currently the grantee and
operator for transit service in Front Royal.
For the development of transit service to LFCC, it is likely that the incremental expansion of
existing services will be the most reasonable approach, taking full advantage of the transit
infrastructure that is already in place.
SERVICE OPTIONS
Alternative #1 – Service from the City of Winchester and Stephens City
As demonstrated through surveys, enrollment data, and stakeholder input the highest
transportation priority for LFCC is connecting the Middletown Campus to Winchester and
Stephens City. A route between these three locations may be relatively straight-forward, but
several service options need to be evaluated; these options are presented below.
Potential Stops
In Winchester, the WinTran transfer stop on Boscawen Street is the proposed northern
terminus of the route. This location offers many benefits for LFCC commuters. Many of the
surveys and stakeholders explicitly asked for the Winchester shuttle stop to be located in a
central location with access to WinTran services. With this link, commuters to the campus in
Middletown will be able to utilize any of the WinTran routes to reach the Boscawen transfer
stop. Additionally, across the street from the stop is the Court Square Auto Park that could
provide a park and ride location for commuters who do not live along a WinTran bus route.
The garage is fully automated and is open to the public 24 hours per day with parking rates of
$0.50 per hour or $10.00 per day.
When identifying a stop location in Stephens City the study team prioritized locations close
to U.S. Route 11 and Interstate 81. As seen in Figure 2-2, the review team has identified three
potential stop locations in Stephens City. The first location is the Food Lion and Goodwill
Shopping Center along Fairfax Pike. This location is directly accessible from Fairfax Pike and
features a controlled intersection for making left turns out of the shopping center. The Food
Lion Shopping Center offers a total of approximately 660 parking spaces. The second location,
the Martin’s Shopping Center, is somewhat setback from Fairfax Pike which would require the
shuttle to turn onto Double Church Road to gain access. The Martin’s Shopping Center
features a total of approximately 400 parking spaces. The third location is a parking lot at the
intersection of Filbert Street and Germain Street near the downtown area of Stephens City.
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From online research it appears that this lot is used by a local church for overflow parking
with a handful of vehicles parked in the lot on a typical weekday. This parking lot contains
approximately 60 parking spots. For each of these three locations communication will need to
be initiated with the parking lot owners to secure permission for use as a shuttle stop and
park and ride location.
On the LFCC Middletown Campus, one or multiple stop locations should be designated.
Given the campus layout, serving multiple buildings should be seamless with potential stop
locations at Fairfax Hall, the Health and Science Building, and the Student Union.
Figure 2-3: Potential Stop Locations in Stephens City
Potential Routing
Developing a route between Winchester, Stephens City, and LFCC Middletown presents two
general options; traveling exclusively on U.S. Route 11 or using a combination of Interstate 81
and U.S. Route 11. These two options and the varying three quarter-mile deviation/ADA
paratransit zones are shown in Figure 2-4. As seen in Table 2-2, traveling on Interstate 81 from
Winchester to Stephens City adds an additional mile per round trip but gives the advantage of
higher speed limits, which significantly reduces travel time. The Route 11 option could allow
access for more public riders through the corridor, which may also increase paratransit
demand. Additionally, the Interstate 81 corridor between Winchester and Stephens City is
within the Winchester Urbanized Area, whereas the urbanized area does not include the
entirety of the parallel stretch of U.S. Route 11.
Potential Stop
Food Lion Parking Lot
Potential Stop
Martin’s Parking Lot
Potential Stop
Unassigned Parking Lot
Source: Bing Maps
Route 277/Fairfax Pike
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Chapter 2: Existing Services and Potential Options
Table 2-2: Winchester and Stephens City Shuttle Routing Comparison
Routing
Round
Trip
Mileage
Urban
Mileage
Rural
Mileage
Unencumbered
Round Trip
Travel Time
Round Trip
Travel Time at
BRCC Oper.
Speed
(18.8 MPH)
Round Trip
Travel Time at
WinTran Oper.
Speed
(10.5 MPH)
U.S. Route 11 24.26 15.48 8.78 48 mins. 77 mins. 139 mins.
I-81 & U.S. 11 25.40 17.64 7.76 38 mins. 81 mins. 145 mins.
Fixed Route versus Deviated Fixed Route
When operating a public transportation route that is funded in part with federal funds, the
service must comply with specific Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) requirements. Using
a fixed route service pattern, where the vehicle does not deviate from the published route, the
transportation provider must also provide complementary paratransit service for those who
are unable to reach the bus stops due to a physical or mental disability. The paratransit
service must be provided for those who live within a three-quarter mile radius of the route.
Another approach to satisfy the ADA requirement is to allow the vehicle to deviate from the
published route, up to a three-quarter mile radius, to pick up and drop off individuals with
disabilities. Both of these approaches have advantages and disadvantages that should be
weighed against the type of service that is desired. These are listed below.
Fixed Route Deviated Fixed Route
Service is more reliable.
Route could utilize I-81 for faster and
more streamlined service.
Requires a dedicated paratransit
vehicle which would result in added
operating costs.
Deviations will add travel time.
Would make routing on I-81 virtually
impossible with required deviations.
Would not require an additional
vehicle for ADA paratransit and the
associated operating costs.
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Chapter 2: Existing Services and Potential Options
Figure 2-4: Potential Routing Alignments for Winchester and Stephens City Shuttle
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0 200 400 600 800
8:00 AM
9:00 AM
10:00 AM
11:00 AM
12:00 PM
1:00 PM
2:00 PM
3:00 PM
4:00 PM
5:00 PM
6:00 PM
7:00 PM
8:00 PM
9:00 PM
Students in Classes
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Potential Service Spans
The fall and spring semesters both
have approximately 80 class and final
exam days and there are about 50 class
and exam days during the summer
semester; adding up to a total of 220
potential service days annually. It is
important to note that the summer
semester has about a quarter of the
enrollment from a typical fall or spring
semester, which may warrant limited
service during summer months.
When considering potential service
hours, the enrollment from spring 2015
was reviewed (Figure 2-5). The spring
enrollment data is proportionally
representative of enrollment figures
during the fall and summer semesters of
2014 and 2015. As seen in the graph,
enrollment is the highest Monday
through Thursday from the 8:00 a.m.
hour to the 7:00 p.m. hour. Given these
trends, a service beginning at 7:00 a.m.
would be ideal to serve those with 8:00
a.m. classes and suspending the service
at 9:00 p.m. would ensure a ride home to
the vast majority of students enrolled in
evening classes. The data also suggests
that Friday enrollment is a mere fraction
of a typical weekday. This may warrant
limited service; such as longer headways
or ending the service earlier in the
afternoon.
While LFCC demand will be significantly
higher on class and exam days, it is likely
that the service will need to operate year
round to accommodate general public
riders, as well as summer activities at
LFCC.
Figure 2-5: Spring 2015 Enrollment by Day and Time
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Potential Operating and Capital Costs
The potential operating costs for a fixed route and deviated fixed route are shown in Table 2-
3. The two alternatives offer virtually the same service spans. The alternatives offer a full day
of service from Monday to Thursday with Friday service ending early at 1:00 p.m. ADA
paratransit costs are included as mirroring the fixed route service. This is an estimate as
demand may not necessitate the service throughout the service span but a driver and vehicle
must be available during service hours. This service may also be contracted out to a private
vendor which could also affect the potential operating costs. These cost estimates are refined
in Chapter 3.
Table 2-3: Potential Operating Costs for Winchester and Stephens City Route
Service Span Service Type Hours-
Span
No. of
Vehicles
Daily
Service
Hours
Days of
Service
Annual
Service
Hours
WinTran
Operating Cost
($51.32/Hour)(1)
Monday to
Thursday
7:00 am to 9:00 pm
Fixed Route 14.75 2 29.5 204 6,018 $308,844
ADA Paratransit 14.75 1 14.75 204 3,009 $154,422
Friday
7:00 am to 1:00 pm
Fixed Route 7 2 14 51 714 $36,642
ADA Paratransit 7 1 7 51 357 $18,321
Total Cost- Year Round Service $518,229
Monday to
Thursday
7:00 am to 10:00
pm
Deviated Fixed
Route 14.75 2 29.5 204 6,018 $308,844
Friday
7:00 am to 1:00 pm
Deviated Fixed
Route 7 2 14 51 714 $36,642
Total Cost Year Round Service $345,486
(1) WinTran estimate of FY2016 fully-allocated hourly operating expenses
In addition to operating costs, transit vehicles must also be purchased. Vehicle costs are
variable based on passenger capacity and the types of features included (e.g. wheelchair lifts,
bicycle racks, fareboxes, security cameras, etc.). A typical 14 or 15 passenger vehicle fully
outfitted with standard features will be in the neighborhood of $60,000 to $70,000. In
comparison, a 19 passenger vehicle costs between $70,000 and $100,000 and a 27 passenger
vehicle typically comes in over $100,000. On the higher end of the spectrum, a medium sized
low floor city transit bus would start at $400,000 as a base price.
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For service linking Winchester and Stephens City to LFCC, a 19 passenger vehicle would likely
be the most flexible option. Transit vehicles must also be replaced once they have reached
their useful life; allocating funding for these large capital costs should be done through multi-
year budgeting. Once demand for the service has been demonstrated a larger 27 passenger
bus may be an appropriate move to increase passenger capacity.
Alternative #2 – Deviated Fixed Route Service from Additional Towns
In addition to Winchester and Stephens City, LFCC also has high enrollment numbers from
Front Royal, Strasburg, and Woodstock. Given the distance of these towns from LFCC’s
Middletown campus, deviated fixed route service or a commuter route would likely be the
most appropriate service type to meet the demands of area students. The first version of the
alternatives contemplated service only when LFCC is in session. These have been modified to
include the full year (Monday through Friday), in recognition that these routes will likely
attract general public riders as well, and are assumed to be funded with assistance through
the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) and DRPT.
Potential Stops
Front Royal Service
Potential service to and from Front Royal has been planned and documented in Virginia
Regional Transit’s (VRT) West Central Transit Development Plan. In the plan, VRT states that
connecting the Front Royal Visitor’s Center (VRT’s main transit center in Front Royal) to
LFCC would promote economic growth, employment opportunities, and higher education.
VRT’s plan would also allow for stops at the Walmart and/or Target shopping centers north of
Front Royal which would allow park and ride opportunities for commuters.
Strasburg and Woodstock Service
While further analysis should be conducted to determine the best and most appropriate stop
locations, the Walmart in Woodstock and the Food Lion in Strasburg were selected as
potential bus stop locations.
Potential Routing
Front Royal Service
The VRT West Central Transit Development Plan calls for a commuter service linking Front
Royal to Middletown via U.S. Route 522 and Virginia Route 627. The rational for using 627 is
to expand transit service to the Reliance area. The proposed routing in Figure 2-6 is 23.2 miles
round trip.
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Chapter 2: Existing Services and Potential Options
Figure 2-6: Potential Routing Alignments for Service from Additional Towns
Strasburg and Woodstock Service
The proposed routing for this alternative is predominately on Interstate 81 which would
achieve higher operating speeds. However, there is an opportunity to travel along Route 11
which would allow for additional stops along the way; this would likely attract non-LFCC
users as there currently is no public transit option provided in these areas. The proposed
route length is 44.4 miles round trip.
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Chapter 2: Existing Services and Potential Options
Table 2-4: Front Royal and Strasburg/Woodstock Shuttle Routing Comparison
Routing
Round
Trip
Mileage
Urban
Mileage
Rural
Mileage
Unencumbered
Round Trip
Travel Time
Round Trip
Travel Time at
BRCC Oper.
Speed
(18.8 MPH)
Round Trip
Travel Time at
WinTran Oper.
Speed
(10.5 MPH)
Front Royal
Route 522 and 627 23.20 0 23.20 46 mins. 74 mins. 133 mins.
I-81 26.40 0 26.40 36 mins. 84 mins. 151 mins.
Strasburg and Woodstock
I-81 44.40 0 44.40 58 mins. 142 mins. 254 mins.
U.S. Route 11 40.80 0 7.76 78 mins. 130 mins. 233 mins.
Potential Service Spans
Front Royal Service
VRT’s plan calls for commuter service providing three round trips per week day; one in the
morning, a mid-day run, and an evening trip. While the plan does not provide specific times
for service the best times to meet those high enrollment periods are 7:00 a.m., 12:00 p.m., and
6:00 p.m.
Strasburg and Woodstock Service
Given the geographical distance between Woodstock, Strasburg, and Middletown, a
commuter service would likely be the best fit for providing transit service. A commuter
service offers inbound runs (Woodstock to Middletown) in the morning and outbound runs
(Middletown to Woodstock) in the evenings. When considering potential operating hours the
hourly enrollment data was examined. Given the large enrollment number for the 8:00 a.m.
and 9:00 a.m. class hours, a 7:00 a.m. departure from Woodstock and a 7:30 a.m. departure
from Strasburg should provide ample time for students to reach LFCC in Middletown. An
additional morning run could possibly depart Woodstock at 9:30 a.m. and Strasburg at 10:00
a.m. for students taking classes in the busy 11:00 a.m. hour. Conversely, afternoon/evening
service could depart Middletown at 3:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m. following large enrollment hours.
An additional outbound evening run at 8:00 p.m. could be considered for students staying
late.
Potential Operating and Capital Costs
The potential operating costs for a fixed route and deviated fixed route are shown in Table 2-
5. The proposed two services offer similar service spans; Monday through Friday with three
round trips to Front Royal and two inbound and two outbound trips from Strasburg and
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Chapter 2: Existing Services and Potential Options
Woodstock. VRT’s operating costs were used to estimate the cost for these services. While all
vehicles must be accessible, ADA paratransit is not required for commuter service.
Table 2-5: Potential Operating Costs for Front Royal and Strasburg/Woodstock
Service Span Service Type
Daily
Service
Hours
Days of
Service
Annual
Service
Hours
Estimated
Operating
Cost
($59/Hr.)
Front Royal
Monday to Friday
7:00 am
12:00 pm
6:00 pm
Commuter
Service 6 254 1,524 $89,916
$89,916
Strasburg and Woodstock
Monday to Friday
7:00 am
9:30 am
3:00 pm
6:00 pm
Commuter
Service 10 254 2,540 $149,860
$149,860
For service linking Front Royal and Strasburg and Woodstock, a 19-passenger vehicle would
likely be the most flexible option. Associated per vehicle costs would be between $70,000 and
$100,000, depending upon the options.
Alternative #3 – Demand Response Service from Rural Areas
Given the rural nature of the region, demand response services may be the best solution for
providing transportation to needy individuals outside of the region’s travel corridors. Demand
response service provides personalized curb-to-curb or door-to-door services while grouping
trips for maximum travel efficiency. Service may be on-call or utilize a system of advanced
reservations. WellTran, the Shenandoah Area Agency on Aging’s transportation system, is
currently providing demand-response service in the Middletown area. This may present a
unique opportunity to partner with WellTran to tap into their existing operating
infrastructure.
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Chapter 2: Existing Services and Potential Options
Potential Service Spans
Demand response is largely a reactive service; if there is no demand for transportation then
the demand response vehicle will idle until service is requested. Potential demand for service
would range from 7:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m. to meet all the class times.
Potential Operating and Capital Costs
Costs associated with a demand response service vary depending upon service hours. While
the service may not be utilized during the full day, a dedicated vehicle and driver must be
available to respond to trip requests. Operating cost estimates are provided below in Table 2-
6.
Table 2-6: Potential Operating Costs for Demand Response Service
Service Span Service Type
Daily
Service
Hours
Days of
Service
Annual
Service
Hours
Operating
Cost
Estimate
($59/Hr.)
Monday to Friday
7:00 am to 10:00 pm
Demand
Response 15 254 3,810 $224,790
Total $224,790
Demand response service is typical provided through smaller 14 or 15 passenger vehicles
which may range from $60,000 to $70,000 depending upon the features.
POTENTIAL FUNDING SOURCES
Revenue
In order to determine the net deficit for a transit operating project, a local grant recipient first
must deduct any locally-generated revenue from the total project cost. The most common
forms of local revenue are fares (either directly into the farebox or pre-paid from large user
groups, such as universities) and advertising revenue. Many systems sell display advertising
spots on vehicles and shelters as a way to generate revenue. In some markets, transit
advertising can generate a significant level of revenue. It is typically a local policy decision
whether or not to sell advertising, as well as whether to only sell interior bus ads, or to allow
more extensive advertisements such as bus wraps.
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Chapter 2: Existing Services and Potential Options
Local Example
WinTran’s farebox recovery is about 9.5% and the system generates about $2,500 annually in
advertising revenue. WinTran has reported a recent increase in advertising revenue through
the use of vinyl panels displayed on its shelters. The BRCC shuttles experience a low farebox
recovery (3%), largely because the majority of the riders are associated with either BRCC or
JMU and do not pay a fare. BRCC makes an annual contribution to the local matching funds
required to operate the route.
Urban and Rural Federal Transit Funding
It is relevant to note that Winchester is part of an urbanized area, which means that the
federal funding available to help support the program is derived from the federal S.5307
program, which provides funding assistance for transit programs in urbanized areas. The
Winchester Urbanized area is shown in Figure 2-7. As displayed by the map, Middletown is in
a rural area. If federal transit funding is available for a transit service between Winchester and
Middletown, it may be necessary to split the federal funding sources between the S.5307
(urban) and S.5311 (rural) programs based on the revenue miles planned for each category.
The following describes the features of each of these two FTA funding programs, which may
be options to support service oriented to the needs of LFCC.
Urbanized Area Formula Funding Program (49 USC 5307)
The S.5307 program makes federal financial resources available to urbanized areas and to
governors for transit capital and operating assistance and for transportation-related
planning.4 An urbanized area is defined as an incorporated area with a population of 50,000
or more that is designated as such by the Census Bureau. Designated recipients must be
public bodies with the legal authority to receive and dispense federal funds. For urbanized
areas of between 50,000 and 200,000, the Governor or the Governor’s designee is the
designated recipient.
4 Urbanized Area Formula Program (5307), USDOT website, www. transit.gov/funding/grants/grant-
programs/urbanized-area-funding programs, updated March 2016.
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Chapter 2: Existing Services and Potential Options
Figure 2-7: Winchester Urbanized Area
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Chapter 2: Existing Services and Potential Options
Funds are available for planning, capital and operating expenses (for small urbanized areas).
For urbanized areas under 200,000 in population the funds are apportioned to DRPT for
distribution. The federal share is not too exceed 80% of the net project cost for capital
expenses. The federal share may be up to 90% for the cost of vehicle-related equipment
needed for ADA compliance, projects related to bicycles, and projects related to compliance
with the Clean Air Act. For operating assistance, the federal share may not exceed 50% of the
net project cost. Preventive maintenance is considered a capital cost.
Local Example
WinTran is the designated recipient of S.5307 funds for the Winchester Urbanized Area. The
FY2016 allocation for the region is $988,057. WinTran’s FY2016 budget allocated $452,362 of
this allocation for operating expenses and another $360,000 for capital. This would
potentially leave some federal urban transit funding available for expansion ($175,695),
depending upon WinTran’s future capital and operating needs, as well as the future S.5307
allocations, which have not yet been published.
Formula Grants for Other than Urbanized Areas (49 USC 5311)
The S.53111 program is a formula-based rural program that provides funding to states for the
purpose of supporting public transportation in rural areas with populations of less than
50,000. DRPT is the direct recipient of funding under the S.5311 program. Eligible sub-
recipients include state or local governmental authorities, nonprofit organizations, or
operators of public transportation or intercity bus service that receive federal transit program
grant funds indirectly through a recipient. DRPT oversees the program in Virginia.
Capital, operating, and administrative expenses are eligible uses for the funds. The federal
share of eligible capital and project administrative activities may not exceed 80% of the net
project cost and the federal share for operating expenses may not exceed 50% of the net
operating cost. For projects that meet the requirements of the ADA, the Clean Air Act, or
bicycle access projects, the federal share can be as much as 90%.5
Local Example
Federal S.5311 funding is used to help fund transit services operated by VRT in Clarke County
and in Front Royal. The BRCC shuttles are also funded up to 50% by S.5311. In FY15, the BRCC
shuttles received about $215,000 in federal operating support.
5 Formula Grants for other than Urbanized Areas (5311), USDOT website, www.transit.dot.gov/funding/grants/grant-
programs/formula-grants-other-urbanized programs, updated March 16, 2016.
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Chapter 2: Existing Services and Potential Options
State Transit Funding
In addition to providing oversight for federal transit funding programs in the Commonwealth,
DRPT also administers eight state aid grant programs. These programs are summarized in
Figure 2-8, taken from DRPT’s Public Transportation Application Guidance.
Local Example
In FY2016, WinTran received $165,364 in state operating assistance and $72,000 in state capital
assistance. The BRCC shuttles receive about $86,000 in state operating assistance (FY2015
data).
Local Transit Funding
Local transit funding refers to funds that are provided by local governments or agencies to
match federal and state grants. These funds could be derived from a county or city’s general
fund, or could be derived from a specific dedicated source, such as a contract for transit
service or a tax. It is typical for a rural transit system to derive at least some of its local transit
funding from local service contracts. Some examples included contracts for senior center-
based transportation and medical transportation.
Local Example
The City of Winchester currently provides $284,498 from the City’s general fund to support
the operations of WinTran. Blue Ridge Community College contributes about $154,000
annually to provide the local match for the operation of the two shuttle routes.
NEXT STEPS
The next steps in the study process were for the stakeholder group to decide upon the options
to pursue for the development of the transit service plan, which is highlighted in Chapter 3.
The transit service plan provides a refined version of the concepts included in this chapter.
The information contained within the transit service plan can form the basis for grant
requests to DRPT to help implement service.
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Chapter 2: Existing Services and Potential Options
Figure 2-8: DRPT Administered State Aid Grant Programs
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Chapter 3: Transit Service Plan
Chapter 3
Transit Service Plan
INTRODUCTION
After review and discussion of the service options presented in Chapter 2, study committee
members have chosen a plan to consider for implementation. The chosen plan includes a near-
term option to develop a public transportation route from the City of Winchester to Lord
Fairfax Community College (LFCC) via Stephens City; a mid-term plan to extend service to
Front Royal; a long-term plan to extend service to Woodstock and Strasburg; and evaluate
service from areas north and west of Winchester as well as Berryville. While derived from the
general concepts outlined in Chapter 2, the plan offers a more modest approach to
implementing service than was outlined in Chapter 2, with the goal of initiating basic service,
and adding to it as demand warrants and funding levels allow.
The plan is detailed in this chapter, including organizational, service, and financial details. The
implementation of service will depend upon the level of federal, state, and local funds available
for the project. Of particular importance will be an agreement among local stakeholders to
provide an equitable share of the local match required for annual operating and capital
budgets.
ORGANIZATIONAL PLAN
Near-Term
The City of Winchester, with financial assistance from local partners, may consider applying for
grant funding from Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation (DRPT) and the
Federal Transit Administration (FTA) to extend a route from the City of Winchester to LFCC.
Given that the route serves both urban and rural areas, it is proposed that WinTran use both
S.5307 (urbanized area) funding and S.5311 (rural area) funding for the federal portion of the
public transportation funding assistance. The proposed route, using the Route 11 corridor,
totals 24.26 miles round trip, with 64% of the route miles in the urbanized area and 36% of the
route miles are in the rural area. It is likely that this link will also attract a significant number
of general public riders, particularly between Stephens City and Winchester.
As the existing grantee for FTA urbanized area funding in the region, as well as the origin area
for about 24% of the LFCC student population that will be potentially served via the transit
corridor, it makes sense for the City to take the lead for the near-term transit service link to
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Chapter 3: Transit Service Plan
LFCC.1 Local funding sources could include the City of Winchester, Frederick County, the
towns of Stephens City and Middletown, LFCC, and major employers in the corridor.
Mid-Term
There are additional areas of the Northern Shenandoah Valley that are home to LFCC students
who need to access the Middletown campus. The second largest concentration of LFCC–
Middletown students (behind Winchester and Stephens City), is in the Front Royal area.
The mid-term plan calls for a public transportation link between Front Royal and LFCC. This
link would be administered and operated by VRT, as part of their role in administering and
providing public transportation service in the Front Royal area. The federal funding source for
would be the rural S.5311 program. Local funding sources could include the Town of Front
Royal, Frederick County, Warren County, LFCC, and major employers in the corridor.
Long-Term
The longer-term plan includes a route along the Route 11 South corridor, providing a link from
Woodstock and Strasburg to LFCC. There is not currently a public transportation program
operating in this corridor. It is proposed that the same operator that oversees the Front Royal
service (currently VRT) also operate the Woodstock/Strasburg link.
Also in the long-term, it is recommended that a link to the north and west of Winchester, in
Frederick County, be further examined for future service to link into the City of Winchester
and the LFCC service. Service from Berryville should also be considered.
Future Organizational Considerations
While there is not currently a public transportation program in Frederick County, the need has
been articulated for several years. Public transportation options have also been discussed for
Warren County, including service along the 340/522 Corridor. If public transportation services
in the region continue to grow, it may make sense to explore development of a regional entity
to administer public transportation services in the region, rather than the current structure of
Winchester City and VRT (private non-profit) administration.
Advisory Committee
In order to provide guidance and help the program succeed, it is proposed that the current
LFCC study committee, which has provided guidance for this feasibility study, remain in place
and transition to an advisory committee for the LFCC-based service. The committee can meet
1 Based on LFCC enrollment data within and adjacent to the proposed service corridor.
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Chapter 3: Transit Service Plan
on a regular basis, with monthly meetings likely useful during the planning and
implementation stages and less frequent meetings once the service is established. An
important role for the committee will be to help reach out to potential additional funding
partners and to establish performance measures that can be used for future service planning
(i.e., route viability, expansion, etc.).
Staffing
It is proposed that the LFCC Shuttle be operated by WinTran staff for the link to Winchester
and by VRT staff for the link to Front Royal. There may be a possibility of contracting the ADA
paratransit service to a private non-profit or for-profit transportation provider, and this option
will be further explored during the implementation phase.
SERVICE PLAN
Near Term
LFCC Shuttle
Given the relative density of LFCC students in the City of Winchester, the area of Frederick
County adjacent to Winchester and the proposed corridor, as well as the opportunity to
connect to the full WinTran route network in downtown Winchester, the development of a
fixed route shuttle service between WinTran’s Boscawen Street transfer stop in the City of
Winchester and LFCC is recommended. The preliminary route proposal will serve the Route 11
(Valley Avenue) corridor, including a stop in Stephens City. As proposed, the route will:
Originate at the Boscawen Street stop in downtown Winchester.
Use the same downtown routing as the Valley Avenue route, serving Cameron and
Braddock Streets downtown, and then travel south along Valley Avenue.
Make the following passenger stops in the southbound direction:
o Downtown Winchester
o John Handley High School
o The Elms
o Creekside Station
o The DMV
o Main Street, Stephens City
o LFCC
Make the following stops in the northbound direction:
o LFCC
o Main Street, Stephens City
o Kernstown Commons
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Chapter 3: Transit Service Plan
o Valley Avenue @ Brookfield
o Wards Plaza
o Valley Avenue @ Lambden
o McDonalds
o Downtown Winchester
This route, as described above, is 24.26 miles round trip. This distance, allowing for passenger
stops, traffic, and driver recovery will require two vehicles to be assigned to the route to
achieve one-hour frequencies. A preliminary route map is provided in Figure 3-1.
For ease of use among students, and to get students to campus with enough time to attend
classes that start on the hour, it is recommended that this route leave Winchester on the hour.
This schedule will complement the Valley Avenue route for most of the day, with the exception
of the 10:00 a.m. and the 5:00 p.m. runs, where the routes will be duplicative for the city
portion of the route. A proposed time table for Monday through Thursday is provided in Table
3-1. This schedule equates to about 4,386 annual revenue service hours.
As discussed in Chapter 1, there are significantly fewer students on campus on Fridays, with
very little activity after 1:00 p.m. In recognition of the fact that the route will also attract
general public riders, it is proposed that the route operate until about 6:00 p.m. on Fridays. The
proposed time table for Friday service is provided in Table 3-2. Evening and weekend services
are not planned for the near term. The Friday service equates to about 995 annual revenue
service hours, for a total of 5,380 revenue service hours for the fixed route service.
The proposed schedule appears to be on the “loose” side, meaning that there is extra time built
in on either end. Some of this time is scheduled for driver recovery, and some could be used for
added stops in the City of Winchester and/or on the LFCC campus. WinTran will need to
further test the proposed schedule using a transit vehicle and adjust the schedule as needed
prior to implementation.
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Figure 3-1: LFCC- Winchester Shuttle Preliminary Route Map
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Table 3-1: LFCC- Winchester Shuttle – Proposed Schedule- Monday - Thursday
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9:00 9:09 9:15 9:21 9:29 9:35 9:45 10:00 10:10 10:17 10:23 10:30 10:35 10:37 10:41
10:00 10:09 10:15 10:21 10:29 10:35 10:45 11:00 11:10 11:17 11:23 11:30 11:35 11:37 11:41
11:00 11:09 11:15 11:21 11:29 11:35 11:45 12:00 12:10 12:17 12:23 12:30 12:35 12:37 12:41
12:00 12:09 12:15 12:21 12:29 12:35 12:45 1:00 1:10 1:17 1:23 1:30 1:35 1:37 1:41
1:00 1:09 1:15 1:21 1:29 1:35 1:45 2:00 2:10 2:17 2:23 2:30 2:35 2:37 2:41
2:00 2:09 2:15 2:21 2:29 2:35 2:45 3:00 3:10 3:17 3:23 3:30 3:35 3:37 3:41
3:00 3:09 3:15 3:21 3:29 3:35 3:45 4:00 4:10 4:17 4:23 4:30 4:35 4:37 4:41
4:00 4:09 4:15 4:21 4:29 4:35 4:45 5:00 5:10 5:17 5:23 5:30 5:35 5:37 5:41
5:00 5:09 5:15 5:21 5:29 5:35 5:45 6:00 6:10 6:17 6:23 6:30 6:35 6:37 6:41
Northbound
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Table 3-2: LFCC- Winchester Shuttle – Proposed Schedule- Friday
Given that this route will provide important connectivity through the Route 11 corridor, it is
recommended that the route operate year round. This will allow Winchester area students to
attend registration, orientation, and summer programs held at LFCC. It will also allow year-
round faculty and staff to use the service consistently. While evening service is thought to be
important, local stakeholders indicated implementing day service would be a good first step
and indicator of demand. As funding and demand dictates, the service could be expanded into
the evening in the future.
Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) Service
In order to comply with ADA requirements, people with disabilities who cannot travel to a bus
stop must be accommodated. This service must be offered within ¾ mile of a fixed route.
Transit programs can provide service either by deviation from their fixed routes (deviated fixed
route service) or by providing a separate demand response vehicle.
The current service proposal calls for ADA service to be offered through the provision of ADA
paratransit for this corridor. Route deviation was considered, but the consensus of stakeholders
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is that students are particularly sensitive to travel time and route deviations will add to total
travel time.
WinTran already provides ADA paratransit for the fixed route network. Adding the LFCC-
Winchester Shuttle to the WinTran network will increase the service area covered by ADA
service from the current southern terminus (3/4 mile south of Creekside Station) to ¾ mile
south of LFCC. The added ADA paratransit service area is highlighted in Figure 3-2. As is
shown on this map, the majority of additional ADA paratransit demand is likely to come from
the Stephens City area.
There are two primary ways in which the ADA demand can be met. The first is for WinTran to
add ADA capacity to cover the added demand and the second is for the City to issue a request
for proposals (RFP) to investigate the possibility of a contractor operating the service. It is
possible that either WellTran, VRT, or another operator may be able to serve as a contractor for
ADA paratransit in the corridor. The WellTran program currently provides paratransit services
in the Route 11 corridor for senior citizens and people with disabilities for medical purposes,
and VRT operates service in Berryville and Front Royal.
Under either scenario, service hours will need to be budgeted for the provision of ADA
paratransit service, and two expansion vehicles will be needed. The estimated number annual
revenue service hours for ADA paratransit, based on the fixed route schedule, is 2,945 revenue
service hours. The preliminary budget assumes WinTran will operate the service, but this may
change if an RFP process discovers that a more suitable alternative.
Fares
It is recommended that the fare be consistent with the WinTran fare structure, which is $1.00
per trip for an adult fare; $0.50 for the half-fare program (students, seniors ages 65 or older,
individuals with disabilities, or Medicare card holders); and free for children under two years of
age. Transfers from one route to another during the same one-way trip are free.
While the concept of LFCC providing full payment in lieu of fares for LFCC students was
discussed, LFCC representatives indicated that the available funding to support the service will
not be enough to supplant fare revenue.
Targeted Riders
While the route is oriented to the needs of LFCC students, the LFCC-Winchester Shuttle will
be open to the public, including all segments of the local community. The chosen route serves
a number of community destinations, in addition to LFCC, the Town of Stephens City,
Middletown, and downtown Winchester.
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Chapter 3: Transit Service Plan
Figure 3-2: LFCC- Winchester Shuttle, ADA Service Area
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Chapter 3: Transit Service Plan
Estimated Ridership
Ridership estimates have been developed using a combination of data including student
enrollment in the proposed service corridor and the general population in the proposed service
corridor. Table 3-3 provides the LFCC enrollment data for a particular semester (Fall 2014), as
well as the distinct student population over several semesters for the service corridor, and the
general population.
Table 3-3: LFCC Enrollment by Zip Code for Proposed Transit Service Corridor-
Winchester- LFCC
Notes: Enrollment data provided by LFCC; Population by Zip Code from U.S. Census, 2010.
In order to estimate LFCC ridership from these data, a number of trip rates were applied to the
semester corridor enrollment to estimate the number of individual riders, as well as the total
annual ridership that can be expected, based on a range of between 2% (low end) and 10%
(high end). These data are provided in Table 3- 4.
Table 3-4: Estimated LFCC Ridership Using Enrollment Data
Potential Trip
Rates
# of
Individual
Users
Annual LFCC
Ridership (1)
2% 42 12,372
3% 63 18,557
4% 84 24,743
5% 105 30,929
6% 126 37,115
7% 147 43,300
8% 168 49,486
9% 189 55,672
10% 210 61,858
(1) Based on 3.5 round trips per week; 42 weeks/year
Area/Jurisdiction Zip Code
Fall 2014
Enrollment % Total
Distinct
Students
Fall 2013-
Spring 2015 % Total
General
Population % Total
Frederick County - E. and W. of Winchester 22602 687 33% 1,276 31% 28,443 30%
Frederick County - Stephens City 22655 561 27% 1,123 27% 19,328 21%
Frederick County - N. Winchester 22603 251 12% 473 11% 13,910 15%
Winchester City 22601 497 24% 1,037 25% 27,813 30%
Frederick County - Middletown 22645 108 5% 209 5% 3,880 4%
Corridor Enrollment/Distinct Students 2,104 4,118 93,374
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For the community data, the population of Stephens City was used as a basis, as using the total
corridor population would significantly inflate the pool of potential users by including the
portion of the route that is within the City of Winchester and already has transit service. Using
the Stephens City population of 1,842, trip rate estimates are provided in Table 3-5.
Table 3-5: Community Ridership Estimates
Potential
Trip Rates
Individual
Community
Users
Annual Ridership (1)
2% 37 7,609
3% 55 11,413
4% 73 15,217
5% 91 19,022
(1) Based on 2 round trips per week; 52 weeks/year
The total corridor ridership estimate, using a 5% mode split for the LFCC population and a 3%
mode split for the community population, is 42,342 annual passenger trips.
Estimated Performance Data
Using these ridership estimates, it is estimated the fixed route service will provide 7.9
passenger trips per revenue hour. This is on the conservative side, with higher numbers
certainly possible. If this productivity is achieved, the resulting direct operating cost per trip for
the fixed route shuttle will be $6.34. These preliminary cost figures are based on the estimated
annual operating budget (provided in the Financial Plan section), estimated ridership, and
planned number of service hours.
Expansion
The route between Winchester and LFCC represents a significant expansion for WinTran, as
the total additional service hours (including ADA) are more than half of what is currently
provided. For this reason, a supervisor position was added, as well as a half-time office
assistant.
Mid Term
LFCC- Front Royal Shuttle
The second phase of LFCC service is planned to connect the Front Royal area to LFCC. As
currently proposed, this service would provide a direct connection from the Front Royal Area
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Trolley (FRAT) service to campus. This phase would include a local link for FRAT that is
currently only available on Sundays - the link is from downtown Front Royal to Walmart and
Target, located near the interchange of 340/522 and I-66. It is proposed that the LFCC-Front
Royal Shuttle operate from the Visitor Center in Front Royal, travel through Front Royal using
some of the same segments as FRAT’s weekday North Loop and then travel north along Route
340/522, making a stop at the Riverton Commons area, and then traveling to LFCC via Reliance
Road.
As proposed, the route will:
Originate at the Visitor Center in Front Royal
Make passenger stops in the northbound direction:
o Government Center
o Department of Social Services
o Target
o Walmart
o Reliance
o LFCC
Make stops in the southbound direction:
o LFCC
o Reliance
o Walmart
o Target
o Department of Social Services
o Government Center
o Visitor Center
This route is approximately 24 miles round trip. This distance, allowing for passenger stops,
traffic, and driver recovery will require one vehicle to be assigned to the route to achieve two-
hour frequencies. A preliminary route map is provided in Figure 3-3.
For ease of use among students and to get students to campus with enough time to attend
classes that start on the hour, it is recommended that this route leave Front Royal on the hour.
A proposed time table for Monday through Thursday is provided in Table 3-6. The Monday
through Thursday schedule represents 2,860 annual revenue service hours. There are
significantly fewer students on campus on Fridays, with very little activity after 1:00 p.m. In
recognition of the fact that the route will also attract general public riders, it is proposed that
the route operate until about 6:00 p.m. on Fridays. The proposed time table for Friday service is
provided in Table 3-7. The Friday schedules equates to 507 annual service hours. Weekend
service is not planned for the near term. Evening services are currently included in the
schedule, but this may need to be adjusted depending upon funding availability at the time of
implementation.
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The proposed schedule appears to be on the “loose” side, meaning that there is extra time built
in on either end. This time will likely be needed to accommodate route deviations. VRT will
need to further test the proposed schedule using a transit vehicle and adjust the schedule as
needed.
Figure 3-3: LFCC- Front Royal Shuttle
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Table 3-6: Proposed LFCC-Front Royal Shuttle, Monday -Thursday
Table 3-7: Proposed LFCC- Front Royal Shuttle, Friday
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Given that this route will provide important connectivity from Front Royal to Middletown,
including Target, Walmart and Reliance, it is recommended that the route operate year round.
This will allow Front Royal area students to attend registration, orientation, and summer
programs held at LFCC. It will also allow year-round faculty and staff to use the service
consistently.
Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) Service
In order to comply with ADA requirements, people with disabilities who cannot travel to a bus
stop must be accommodated. This service must be offered within ¾ mile of a fixed route.
Transit programs can provide this service either by deviation from their fixed routes (deviated
fixed route service) or by providing a separate demand response vehicle.
The current service proposal calls for ADA service to be offered through route deviation for this
corridor, similar to the existing FRAT service model. Given the lower population density in this
service area (as compared to the Winchester area), route deviation should be a viable service
model to accommodate people with disabilities.
Fares
It is recommended that the fare be consistent with the fare structure developed for the route
between LFCC and Winchester, which is $1.00 per trip for an adult fare; $0.50 for the half-fare
program (students, seniors age 65 or older, individuals with disabilities, or Medicare card
holders); and free for children under two years of age. Free transfers to/ from the FRAT Trolley
are recommended.
Targeted Riders
While the route is oriented to the needs of LFCC students, the LFCC- Front Royal Shuttle will
be open to the public, including all segments of the local community. In addition to LFCC, the
chosen route serves a number of community destinations, including Department of Social
Services, Government Center, Target and Walmart.
Estimated Ridership
Ridership estimates have been developed using a combination of data including student
enrollment in the proposed service corridor and the general population in the proposed service
corridor. Table 3-8 provides the LFCC enrollment data for the service corridor, as well as the
number of distinct students served by zip code between Fall 2013 and Spring 2015.
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Table 3-8: LFCC Enrollment by Zip Code and General Population for Proposed Transit
Service Corridor- Front Royal - LFCC
Notes: Enrollment data provided by LFCC; Population by Zip Code from U.S. Census, 2010.
In order to estimate LFCC ridership from these data, a number of trip rates were applied to the
semester corridor enrollment to estimate the number of individual riders, as well as the total
annual ridership that can be expected, based on a range of between 2% (low end) and 10%
(high end). These data are provided in Table 3-9.
Table 3-9: Estimated LFCC Ridership- Front Royal Corridor Using Enrollment Data
Potential
Trip Rates
# of
Individual
Users
Annual
Ridership (1)
2% 11 3,328
3% 17 4,992
4% 23 6,656
5% 28 8,320
6% 34 9,984
7% 40 11,648
8% 45 13,312
9% 51 14,976
10% 57 16,640
(1) Based on 3.5 round trips per week; 42 weeks/year
For the community data, the service corridor population was used as a basis. The corridor
population was used because this corridor represents significant new service destinations for
Front Royal and Warren County residents. The service area population of the corridor is 15,531.
The community trip rates are provided in Table 3-10.
Area/Jurisdiction Zip Code
Fall 2014
Enrollment % Total
Distinct
Students
Fall 2013-
Spring 2015 % Total
General
Population % Total
Warren County - Front Royal 22630 458 81% 983 82% 30,292 89%
Frederick County - Middletown 22645 108 19% 209 18% 3,880 11%
Corridor Enrollment/Distinct Students 566 1,192 34,172
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Chapter 3: Transit Service Plan
Table 3-10: Community Trip Rates- Front Royal – LFCC Corridor
Potential
Trip Rates
Community
Users
Annual Ridership (1)
1% 155 8,076
2% 311 16,152
3% 466 24,228
(1) Based on .5 round trips per week; 52 weeks/year
Even with very conservative estimates, it would appear that there could be significant
community ridership for this corridor, particularly between Front Royal and the Target/Wal-
Mart areas.
The total corridor ridership estimate, using 5% for the LFCC population and 2% for the
community population results in a total annual ridership of 24,472 annual passenger trips.
Estimated Performance Data
It is estimated that service will provide 7.3 passenger trips per revenue hour. This is on the
conservative side, with higher numbers certainly possible. If this productivity is achieved, the
resulting fully-allocated cost per trip will be $7.98. The fully allocated operating costs include
all administrative and direct operating expenses. VRT’s estimated fully allocated operating cost
per hour is $58.00 per hour. These preliminary cost figures are based on estimated operating
budget, estimated ridership, and planned number of service hours. Final cost per hour may be
higher or lower, depending upon how VRT can integrate service into the Front Royal operation
and how service is implemented.
Regional Connectivity
In addition to providing needed service from Winchester to LFCC and from Front Royal to
LFCC, these two routes together will allow people to travel between Winchester and Front
Royal, making a transfer at LFCC. This will likely be an important link for employment,
medical, and other trip purposes. These routes may serve to form the basis of a regional transit
program for the Northern Shenandoah Valley.
Long Term
Longer term options are not described with the level of detail associated with near and mid-
term services largely because they are further into the future, which makes it more difficult to
estimate appropriate service parameters and associated costs. Three additional service areas
should be considered for long-term additional public transportation options for LFCC:
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Route 11 South corridor service, connecting Woodstock, Strasburg, and LFCC.
Service from areas in Frederick County west and north of Winchester. These areas
would likely be served through a route that connected to the proposed LFCC-
Winchester Connector.
Service from Berryville to LFCC.
CAPITAL PLAN
Near Term- LFCC – Winchester Shuttle Capital Needs
Vehicles
WinTran will need to apply for funding from DRPT/FTA to purchase three 19-passenger, lift-
equipped, body-on-chassis vehicles for the fixed route shuttle (two on the road at a time and
one spare). This type of vehicle is expected to cost about $100,000 per vehicle, fully equipped
for service with accessibility equipment, a farebox, bike racks, and radio. Two paratransit
vehicles will also be needed to provide ADA complementary paratransit. These vehicles cost
about $60,000 each.
Shelters and Seating
It is recommended that passenger waiting shelters with seating be provided at key locations
along the route where other shelter is not available. For the LFCC-Winchester Shuttle, there is
likely a need to add four shelters. LFCC staff indicated that they own a shelter from the prior
transit demonstration program and it could be re-installed.
Bus Stop Signs
Bus stop signs will be needed for stops not currently in the WinTran network. These stops
include:
The DMV - southbound
Kernstown Commons - northbound
Stephens City – southbound and northbound
LFCC
WinTran has estimated that these signs are expected to cost about $1,000.
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Chapter 3: Transit Service Plan
Mid-Term – LFCC –Front Royal Capital Needs
Vehicles
VRT will need to apply for funding from DRPT/FTA to purchase a 19-passenger, lift-equipped,
body-on-chassis vehicle. It is suggested that one of VRTs existing vehicles be used as a spare
vehicle. This type of vehicle, fully equipped for service, is estimated to cost about $100,000.
Shelters and Seating
It is recommended that passenger waiting shelters with seating be provided at key locations
along the route where other shelter is not available. For the LFCC Front Royal Shuttle, these
locations include LFCC (same shelter as LFCC - Winchester) and possibly Target and Walmart.
Bus Stop Signs
Bus stop signs will be needed for stops not currently in the FRAT network. These stops include:
Reliance
LFCC
Longer Term
Longer term capital needs will likely include additional signs, shelters and seating. Vehicle
replacement will need to be programmed, and if demand warrants, additional expansion
vehicles. Small transit vehicles have a life span of between five and seven years, depending
upon annual mileage, maintenance provided, and specific vehicle make.
FINANCIAL PLAN
Near Term
The operating cost estimate for the LFCC-Winchester Shuttle is currently based on the budgets
constructed in Tables 3-11 and 3-12. The estimates for total annual expenses, hours, miles, and
ridership are presented in Table 3-13.
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Chapter 3: Transit Service Plan
Table 3-11: Proposed Annual Operating Budget, LFCC-Winchester Shuttle
Expense Category Per Unit Rate #Hours
Pre/Post
Hours Amount
Salaries and Wages:
Drivers $ 13.11
5,380 807 $ 81,112
Supervisor $ 18.44
2,080 $ 38,355
Office Assistant $ 13.11
1,040 $ 13,634
Subtotal $ 133,101
Fringe Benefits 21% $ 27,951
Health Insurance $ 5,000 $ 30,000
Total Salaries, Wages, Fringe $ 191,052
Other Operating Expenses: # of units
Motor Fuels and Lubricants $ 1.75
10,087 $ 17,652
Vehicle Maintenance and Repairs $ 15,000 3 $ 45,000
Advertising and Promotion Media $ 5,000
Drug Testing $ 162 5 $ 810
Vehicle Insurance (1) $ 1,750 3 $ 5,250
Uniforms $ 700 5 $ 3,500
Subtotal, Other Operating Expenses $ 77,212
Total Operating Budget - Fixed
Route $ 268,265
(1) Estimate
Source: Per unit costs were supplied by WinTran. # of hours and units were estimated by KFH
Group.
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Table 3-12: ADA Paratransit and Total Operating Expenses to Support LFCC-Winchester
Shuttle
Expense Category Per Unit Rate #Hours
Pre/Post
Hours Amount
Salaries and Wages:
Drivers $ 13.11
2,945
442 $ 44,400
Subtotal
Fringe Benefits 21% $ 9,324
Health Insurance $ 5,000 $ 10,000
Total Salaries, Wages, Fringe $ 63,724
Other Operating Expenses: # of units
Motor Fuels and Lubricants $ 1.95
4,417 $ 8,613
Vehicle Maintenance and Repairs $ 6,000 2 $ 12,000
Drug Testing $ 162 2 $ 324
Vehicle Insurance (1) $ 1,750 2 $ 3,500
Uniforms $ 700 2 $ 1,400
Subtotal, Other Operating Expenses $ 25,837
Total Operating Budget Paratransit $ 89,562
TOTAL FIXED ROUTE AND
PARATRANSIT $ 357,826
(1) Estimate
Source: Per unit costs were supplied by WinTran. # of hours and units were estimated by KFH
Group
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Table 3-13: LFCC-Winchester Shuttle – Estimated Annual Operating Data
The city, with financial support from local partners, will need to apply to DRPT/FTA to secure
grant funding to help implement the LFCC-Winchester Shuttle. Local funding for service is
proposed to come from fares, advertising, LFCC, the City of Winchester, and Frederick County.
It is assumed that the LFCC students will pay a fare to ride the bus. Proposed funding sources
for operations of the near-term route are provided in Table 3-14.
Table 3-14: Proposed Funding Sources- Annual Operating Expenses- LFCC Winchester
Shuttle
Total Annual Expenses $ 357,827
Proposed Funding Sources Amount
Farebox Estimate (1) $ 35,783
Advertising $ 6,000
Net Deficit $ 316,044
Urbanized Area Net Deficit $ 202,268
Rural Area Net Deficit $ 113,776
Federal S.5307 (2) $ 101,134
Federal S. 5311 (3) $ 56,888
State Operating Assistance $ 53,095
Federal and State Subtotal $ 211,118
Local Funding Needed $ 104,927
Total $ 316,044
(1) Assumes LFCC students pay a fare
(2) 50% of the urbanized area net deficit
(3) 50% of the rural area net deficit
Fixed Route Paratransit Total
Annual Revenue Hours 5,380 2,945 8,325
Annual Revenue Miles 60,525 35,340 95,865
Estimated Ridership 42,342 3,829 46,171
Direct Cost per Hour (1)49.86$ 30.41$ 42.98$
Direct Cost per Trip 6.34$ 23.39$ 7.75$
Estimated Annual Operating Costs 268,265$ 89,562$ 357,827$
Estimated Operating Data
(1) The added supervisor and office assistant expenses were included under the fixed
route portion
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Chapter 3: Transit Service Plan
In order to start the conversation regarding the sources of local funding, two possible funding
scenarios have been created (Table 3-15). Both scenarios include a match of $20,000 from
LFCC. The first scenario proposes to split the remaining local match between the City of
Winchester and Frederick County based on the percentage of the total students that will be
served by the route according to LFCC enrollment by zip code data. The second scenario
proposes to split the route based on the percentage of the general population that will be
served by the route according to population data by zip code.
There is also the possibility for local stakeholders to seek additional funding partners, which
would reduce the local match for each contributor. Advertising revenue has also been
budgeted and recent WinTran experience suggests that this source has the potential to grow,
which would reduce the net deficit (Table 3-14, above).
Table 3-15: Proposed Local Funding Options- Operating Expenses
Funding Partner Amount Notes
City of Winchester $ 20,382 24% of non-LFCC share, based on student population served
Frederick County $ 64,545 76% of non-LFCC share, based on student population served
LFCC $ 20,000 LFCC can potentially budget up to $25,000; $5,000 reserved for capital
Other - additional
partners
Total Local Funding $ 104,927
Funding Partner Amount Notes
City of Winchester $ 25,478 30% of half of the local cost based on general population served
Frederick County $ 59,449 70% of half of the local cost based on general population served
LFCC $ 20,000 LFCC can potentially budget up to $25,000; $5,000 reserved for capital
Other - additional
partners
Total Local Funding $ 104,927
Lord Fairfax Community College 3-24
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 3: Transit Service Plan
Capital expenses for start-up include three vehicles, four shelters, and bus stop signs. This
budget is presented in Table 3-16.
Table 3-16: Start-up Capital Budget LFCC Winchester Shuttle
Expenses Amount
Vehicles
3 - 19 passenger lift-equipped body-on-chassis $ 300,000
2- paratransit vehicles $ 120,000
Shelters (4) $ 40,000
Bus Stop Signs $ 1,000
Total $ 461,000
Estimated Capital Funding Sources
Federal $ 368,800
FTA S.5307 (64% of federal total) $ 236,032
FTA S. 5311 (36% of federal total) $ 132,768
DRPT Capital Assistance (1) $ 59,908
Local $ 32,292
Total $ 461,000
(1) Calculated using DRPT's tiered capital funding. Vehicles are considered Tier One
and bus stop infrastructure is Tier Two.
The local match scenarios for the start-up capital for the LFCC Winchester Shuttle are provided
in Table 3-17. The first scenario applies the remainder of LFCC’s $25,000 contribution ($5,000)
to capital needs and splits the rest according to the student population in the service corridor.
The second scenario also applies $5,000 from LFCC, and splits the remainder according to the
general population in the corridor. The third scenario applies the LFCC contribution and splits
the remainder equally between the city and the county; and the last scenario has the city
paying the local capital match as the named grantee. Under this scenario, the entire LFCC
contribution would be applied to operating match.
These scenarios have been developed as examples of ways in which the local match for the
capital start-up could be funded. Local stakeholders will need to reach consensus with regard
to the scenario that is most feasible for all parties. It should be noted that after the initial start-
up, the annual capital needs will be significantly lower until the vehicles need to be replaced, or
a service expansion takes place.
Lord Fairfax Community College 3-25
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 3: Transit Service Plan
Table 3-17: Local Match Scenarios for Start-up Capital- LFCC Winchester Shuttle
Funding Partner Amount Notes
City of Winchester $ 6,550 24% of non-LFCC share, based on student population served
Frederick County $ 20,742 76% of non-LFCC share, based on student population served
LFCC $ 5,000 Portion of LFCC $25,000 contribution
Other - additional
partners
Total Local Funding $ 32,292
Funding Partner Amount Notes
City of Winchester $ 8,188 30% of half of the local cost based on general population served
Frederick County $ 19,104 70% of half of the local cost based on general population served
LFCC $ 5,000
Other - additional
partners
Total Local Funding $ 32,292
Funding Partner Amount Notes
City of Winchester $ 32,292 100% City. Capital part of City system assets.
Total Local Funding $ 32,292
Lord Fairfax Community College 3-26
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 3: Transit Service Plan
Mid-Term
The mid-term plan calls for extension of service between LFCC and Front Royal. Estimated
operating data and expenses are provided in Table 3-18. These data are based on VRT providing
service in conjunction with the FRAT program. The cost per hour estimate was provided for
planning purposes, and may be higher or lower upon implementation, based on how service
can be integrated into FRAT’s operating model.
Table 3-18: Proposed Annual Operating Data, LFCC-Front Royal Shuttle
Estimated Operating Data and Expenses
Annual Revenue Hours 3,367
Annual Revenue Miles 40,392
Estimated Ridership 24,472
Cost per hour $58.00
Annual Operating Costs $195,286
Proposed funding sources for operations of the Front Royal route are provided in Table 3-19.
The service area is completely within a rural area, so the federal funding source would be S.5311.
Local funding for service is proposed to come from fares, advertising, LFCC, the Town of Front
Royal, Frederick County, and Warren County. A specific breakdown for the local funding will
need to be negotiated prior to implementation. Additional funding partners will be sought as
the program develops.
Table 3-19: Proposed Funding Sources for Operations, LFCC-Front Royal Shuttle
Total Annual Operating Expenses $ 195,286
Proposed Funding Sources Amount
Farebox Estimate (1) $ 19,529
Advertising $ 500
Net Deficit $ 175,257
Federal S. 5311 (2) $ 87,629
State Operating Assistance $ 29,443
Federal and State Subtotal $ 117,072
Local Funding Needed $ 58,185
Total $ 175,257
(1) Assumes LFCC students pay a fare
(2) 50% of the net deficit
Lord Fairfax Community College 3-27
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 3: Transit Service Plan
The mid-term budget for capital expenses for start-up includes one vehicle, one shelter, and
bus stop signs. This budget is presented in Table 3-20.
Table 3-20: Proposed Capital Start-up Budget – LFCC Front Royal Shuttle
Expenses Amount
Vehicles
1 body-on-chassis lift equipped vehicle $ 90,000
Shelters (1) $ 10,000
Bus Stop Signs $ 1,000
Total $ 101,000
Estimated Capital Funding Sources
Federal S.5311 $ 80,800
DRPT Capital Assistance (1) $ 12,988
Local $ 7,212
Total $ 101,000
(1) Calculated using DRPT's tiered capital funding. Vehicles are considered Tier One
and bus stop infrastructure is Tier Two.
Longer Term
After the initial implementation period, it is likely that transit demand within the community
and among LFCC students will grow as people learn about service. As demand grows, financial
requirements system may also increase, if additional service hours are needed. The longer term
plan considers additional links to Woodstock and Strasburg in the US 11 South corridor, as well
as links north and west of Winchester, and a link to Berryville.
IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS
The first step in the implementation process will be to begin to build consensus regarding the
acceptance of the plan and the amount of matching funds to be provided by each local partner.
Additional funding partners should also be sought to make the project more affordable for each
local funding partner. The timing for the completion of the feasibility study should provide
sufficient time for local partners to include funds within their FY18 budgets. Building local
consensus will be necessary prior to including the service in the DRPT’s FY18 grant application
cycle (due February 2017). This feasibility study has generated the bulk of the data that will be
necessary to complete the grant application, assuming consensus can be reached regarding
local funding shares.
The additional general implementation steps are discussed below.
Lord Fairfax Community College 3-28
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 3: Transit Service Plan
Continuation of Advisory Committee
In order to help with the full implementation of the plan, including reaching out to additional
funding partners, it is recommended that the advisory committee continue to meet on a
regular basis.
Grant Application
Once local funding is in place, WinTran can include the LFCC shuttle in the FY18 grant
application. Given that the route includes both urban and rural areas, WinTran will have to
apply to both the S.5311 and S.5307 programs. The FY2018 grant applications are due to DRPT in
early February 2017. When DRPT notifies the city as to the level of funding available, the city
and its local partners can then determine whether or to proceed with implementation in
FY2018, based on local financial constraints.
Commitments for the agreed upon local funding amounts will need to be sought by the grant
application deadline.
RFP Preparation and Proposal Evaluation
Once the WinTran is notified concerning the availability of grant funding, a request for
proposals (RFP) for the ADA portion of the service will need to be prepared. The purpose of the
RFP process is two-fold: 1) to provide the private sector and existing agency transportation
programs the opportunity to provide the ADA complementary paratransit services under
contract to WinTran; 2) to ensure that public transportation services are provided in the most
cost effective manner possible.
Once the proposals have been evaluated by the WinTran, the program can move forward with
either a contract operator for ADA paratransit to complement the route, or in-house operation
by WinTran. The decision will be based on cost as well as capacity to provide the service in full
compliance with federal and state requirements.
Vehicle Selection and Order
Once the grant has been approved, WinTran can proceed with vehicle selection and ordering
through its typical process. WinTran has historically purchased vehicles from the state
contract.
Lord Fairfax Community College 3-29
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Chapter 3: Transit Service Plan
Final Route and Schedule Development
It is recommended that the WinTran’s operations staff work to finalize the route and schedule,
based on safety and operational constraints. Once the route and schedule are finalized, the
service can be formally announced and marketed. Discussions with private land owners
concerning bus stops and amenities will also be needed, along with specific sighting of bus
stops.
Naming and Marketing
A preliminary name for the service is the LFCC- Winchester Shuttle. If this name is not desired
by stakeholders, a different name can be chosen in collaboration with local stakeholders.
WinTran and local stakeholders should also decide if the shuttle should be branded through
WinTran, as one of their regular routes, or in an LFCC-specific manner. Once the route is
named and the branding is finalized, a start-up route and schedule can be printed for
distribution and web posting. The printed schedules should be distributed to the high schools
in the area, as well as the typical LFCC and city information dissemination channels. A
ribbon-cutting should be held to celebrate the start of service and generate additional press
about the service.
Hiring and Training
In preparation for the start-up of the route, WinTran will need to hire additional drivers to
cover the planned hours of operation. The actual number of drivers hired will depend on
whether ADA paratransit is provided by WinTran or a contractor. An additional supervisor and
a part-time office assistant have also been included in the preliminary budget. Once on board,
new staff will have to be trained for service.
Service Start
While it would be advantageous to implement service for the fall semester, 2017, it is not likely
possible, given the time it takes to order and receive vehicles. The target for implementing
service will most likely be spring semester, 2018, which is in state fiscal year FY18.
Data Monitoring, Reporting, and Compliance
As an existing provider of public transportation and recipient of federal and state transit funds,
the City of Winchester has data compilation, reporting, and compliance mechanisms in place.
It will be important for WinTran to closely monitor the performance of the route as it is
implemented and make adjustments if needed.
Lord Fairfax Community College
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Appendix A
Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed
Results
Lord Fairfax Community College A-1
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Appendix A
Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and
Detailed Results
METHODOLOGY
One of the major components of determining the level of need for this feasibility study was
conducting both a student/faculty and community based survey (the community survey results
are analyzed in Appendix B). The student and faculty survey was developed collaboratively
between LFCC, WinFred MPO, and KFH Group. The survey was provided in English and Spanish
and made available online, via Survey Monkey, and through paper copies which were distributed
throughout the college. Survey responses were received from November 5th to December 15th, 2015.
A total of 315 surveys were received; including 313 in English and two in Spanish. The following
section provides a detailed analysis of each question.
STUDENT AND FACULTY SURVEY
This section offers a detailed analysis of the results of the Student and Faculty Survey. Each of the
17 questions and comment section are detailed in order. A copy of the Student and Faculty Survey
can be seen on the following pages.
Lord Fairfax Community College A-2
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Student and Faculty Survey (Front)
Lord Fairfax Community College A-3
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Student and Faculty Survey (Back)
Lord Fairfax Community College A-4
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Question #1: Please select the group to which you belong:
Answer Options Response
Percent
Response
Count
LFCC Student 78.1% 246
Dual Enrollment Student 1.6% 5
LFCC Northern Shenandoah Valley Adult
Education (GED/ESOL) 0.6% 2
LFCC Faculty 7% 22
LFCC Staff 12.7% 40
Answered Question 315
Skipped Question 0
78.1%
1.6%
0.6% 7%
12.7%
LFCC Student
Dual Enrollment Student
LFCC Northern Shenandoah
Valley Adult Education
(GED/ESOL)
LFCC Faculty
LFCC Staff
Other
Lord Fairfax Community College A-5
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Question #2: What types of classes are you currently enrolled in?
Answer Options Response
Percent
Response
Count
In person – I travel to LFCC in Middletown 43.3% 136
Online 7.6% 24
In person and Online 31.5% 99
Not Applicable 17.5% 55
Answered Question 314
Skipped Question 1
43.3%
7.6%
31.5%
17.5%
In person – I travel to LFCC in
Middletown
Online
In person and Online
Not Applicable
Lord Fairfax Community College A-6
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Question #3: Is transportation a barrier for you to reach the LFCC Middletown
Campus?
Answer Options Response
Percent
Response
Count
Always 8.6% 27
Often 18.5% 58
Rarely 42.7% 134
Never 30.3% 95
Answered Question 314
Skipped Question 1
0% 5%10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Always
Often
Rarely
Never
Lord Fairfax Community College A-7
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Question #4: Please indicate any transportation barriers that you may face (select
all that apply):
Answers Response
Percent
Response
Count
None 29.1% 89
Cost of Fuel 52.9% 162
No Vehicle Available 16.7% 51
Depend on Others for Rides 15% 46
Weather 2.3% 7
Distance 2% 6
Disability/Injury 1.3% 4
Traffic 1.3% 4
Vehicle Repairs 1% 3
Shared Vehicle 0.7% 2
Travel Time 0.7% 2
Car Mileage for Lease 0.3% 1
Daycare Costs 0.3% 1
High Maintenance Costs 0.3% 1
No License 0.3% 1
Schedule 0.3% 1
Taxi Cost 0.3% 1
Answered Question 306
Skipped Question 9
Question #5: Do you currently possess a valid driver’s license?
Answer Options Response
Percent
Response
Count
Yes 90.5% 285
No 9.5% 30
Answered Question 315
Skipped Question 0
Lord Fairfax Community College A-8
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Question #6: What is your primary mode of transportation to reach the
Middletown Campus?
Answers Response
Percent
Response
Count
Drive Myself 81.2% 254
Carpool with others – I am usually the driver 1.9% 6
Carpool with others – I am usually the passenger 1.9% 6
A friend or family member drives me 12.1% 38
Walk 1.3% 4
Bicycle 0.3% 1
Taxicab 0.3% 1
Bus 0.3% 1
None 0.3% 1
Not Applicable 0.3% 1
Answered Question 313
Skipped Question 2
81.2%
1.9%
1.9%
12.1%
2.8%
Drive Myself
Carpool with others – I am
usually the driver
Carpool with others – I am
usually the passenger
A friend or family member
drives me
Other
Lord Fairfax Community College A-9
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Question #7: If you currently drive alone to campus or carpool, would you use a
public transit service to get to and from LFCC, if such a service was available?
Answer Options Response
Percent
Response
Count
Yes 68% 210
No 32% 101
Answered Question 311
Skipped Question 4
68%
32%
Yes
No
Lord Fairfax Community College A-10
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Question #8: Where do you live during the semester?
Answers Response
Percent
Response
Count
Winchester 32.9% 103
Stephens City 13.1% 41
Front Royal 10.8% 34
Strasburg 6.1% 19
Woodstock 4.8% 15
Luray 4.1% 13
Middletown 2.9% 9
Warrenton 2.5% 8
Linden 1.9% 6
Mt. Jackson 1.9% 6
Boyce 1.3% 4
Clear Brook 1.3% 4
Cross Junction 1.3% 4
Edinburg 1.3% 4
Other 1.3% 4
Berryville 1% 3
Fauquier 1% 3
Gore 1% 3
Bealeton 0.6% 2
New Market 0.6% 2
Quicksburg 0.6% 2
Rappahannock County 0.6% 2
Stephenson 0.6% 2
West Virginia 0.6% 2
Bentonville 0.3% 1
Bloomery, WV 0.3% 1
Bluemont 0.3% 1
Broadway 0.3% 1
Bunker Hill, WV 0.3% 1
Charlottesville 0.3% 1
Chester Gap 0.3% 1
Culpepper 0.3% 1
Delaplane 0.3% 1
Fort Valley 0.3% 1
Lord Fairfax Community College A-11
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Frederick County 0.3% 1
Harrisonburg 0.3% 1
Haymarket 0.3% 1
Inwood 0.3% 1
Martinsburg, WV 0.3% 1
Round Hill 0.3% 1
Star Tannery 0.3% 1
Summerduck 0.3% 1
Washington, VA 0.3% 1
Answered Question 314
Skipped Question 1
0% 5%10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Winchester
Other
Stephens City
Front Royal
Strasburg
Woodstock
Luray
Middletown
Warrenton
Lord Fairfax Community College A-12
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Lord Fairfax Community College A-13
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Question #9: Which days of the week do you typically visit the LFCC Middletown
Campus?
Answer Options Response
Percent
Response
Count
Monday 74.4% 227
Tuesday 72.5% 221
Wednesday 74.4% 227
Thursday 70.2% 214
Friday 22.6% 69
Saturday 8.2% 25
Answered Question 305
Skipped Question 10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
Lord Fairfax Community College A-14
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Question #10: What time do you typically arrive on campus? (If your arrival time
varies per day please select the earliest that you would normally arrive)
Answer Options Response
Percent
Response
Count
Before 7 AM 1.3% 4
7 AM to 9 AM 39.8% 121
9 AM to 12 PM 34.5% 105
12 PM to 3 PM 9.9% 30
3 PM to 6 PM 10.5% 32
After 6 PM 3.9% 12
Answered Question 304
Skipped Question 11
1.3%
39.8%
34.5%
9.9%
10.5%
3.9%
Before 7 AM
7 AM to 9 AM
9 AM to 12 PM
12 PM to 3 PM
3 PM to 6 PM
After 6 PM
Lord Fairfax Community College A-15
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Question #11: What time of the day do you typically depart campus? (If your
departure time varies per day please select the latest that you would normally
depart)
Answer Options Response
Percent
Response
Count
Before 12 PM 2.6% 8
12 PM to 3 PM 16.4% 50
3 PM to 6 PM 36.7% 112
6 PM to 9 PM 29.5% 90
After 9 PM 14.8% 45
Answered Question 305
Skipped Question 10
2.6%
16.4%
36.7%
29.5%
14.8%
Before 12 PM
12 PM to 3 PM
3 PM to 6 PM
6 PM to 9 PM
After 9 PM
Lord Fairfax Community College A-16
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Question #12: If public transportation services were provided to and from LFCC's
Middletown Campus, which of the following should be the highest priority?
(Please check only three)
Answer Options Response
Percent
Response
Count
Morning service (before 8 AM) 38% 115
Evening service (past 5 PM) 37% 112
High frequency (hourly or better) 52.8% 160
Saturday service 4.6% 14
Service around Middletown Campus 14.2% 43
Service to/from Winchester 44.2% 134
Service to/from Front Royal 21.8% 66
Service to/from Stephens City 16.5% 50
Wi-Fi onboard buses 24.1% 73
Service to/from Fauquier County 1% 3
Service to/from Woodstock 1% 3
Service to/from Edinburg 0.3% 1
Service to/from Linden 0.3% 1
Service to/from Luray 0.3% 1
Service to/from New Market 0.3% 1
Service to/from Park & Ride 0.3% 1
Service to/from Strasburg 0.3% 1
Service three times a day 0.3% 1
Service to/from Warrenton 0.3% 1
Answered Question 303
Skipped Question 12
Lord Fairfax Community College A-17
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
0%10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Morning service (before 8 AM)
Evening service (past 5 PM)
High frequency (hourly or better)
Saturday service
Service around Middletown Campus
Service to/from Winchester
Service to/from Front Royal
Service to/from Stephens City
Wi-Fi onboard buses
Other
Transportation Priorities
Lord Fairfax Community College A-18
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Question #13: Do you think that a transportation service to campus should charge
a fare per ride?
Do you think that a transportation service to campus should charge a
fare per ride?
Answer Options Response
Percent
Response
Count
Yes 55% 171
No 45% 140
Answered Question 311
Skipped Question 4
55%
45%
Yes
No
Lord Fairfax Community College A-19
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Suggested Fare per Ride
Answers Response
Percent
Response
Count
$0.25 1.6% 2
$0.50 7.8% 10
$0.60 0.8% 1
$0.75 0% 0
$1 23.4% 30
$1.25 1.6% 2
$1.50 3.9% 5
$2 24.2% 31
$2.50 3.1% 4
$3 15.6% 20
More than $3 10.2% 13
Pass (either weekly, monthly, or by semester) 7.8% 10
Total Suggestions 128
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
$0.25 $0.50 $0.60 $0.75 $1 $1.25 $1.50 $2 $2.50 $3 $3+ Pass
Lord Fairfax Community College A-20
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Question #14: Would you support an increase in student fees (a component of your
LFCC bill each semester) to cover the cost of a transit service that meets your
needs?
Answer Options Response
Percent
Response
Count
Yes 58.4% 180
No 41.6% 128
Answered Question 308
Skipped Question 7
58.4%
41.6%
Yes
No
Lord Fairfax Community College A-21
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Question #15: If you would support an increase in student fees, how much of an
increase per semester do you think would be reasonable?
Answer Options Response
Percent
Response
Count
$5 or less 34.3% 86
$6 - $10 23.1% 58
$11 - $15 15.9% 40
$16 - $20 8% 20
$21 - $25 10.4% 26
More than $25 8.4% 21
Answered Question 251
Skipped Question 64
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
$5 or less $6 - $10 $11 - $15 $16 - $20 $21 - $25 More than $25
Lord Fairfax Community College A-22
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Question #16: Please indicate your age range:
Answer Options Response
Percent
Response
Count
17 or younger 2.2% 7
18 to 24 50.3% 157
25 to 34 17% 53
35 to 44 13.1% 41
45 to 59 12.5% 39
60 or older 4.8% 15
Answered Question 312
Skipped Question 3
2.2%
50.3%
17.0%
13.1%
12.5%
4.8%
17 or younger
18 to 24
25 to 34
35 to 44
45 to 59
60 or older
Lord Fairfax Community College A-23
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix A: Student/Faculty/Staff Survey and Detailed Results
Question #17: How else could a public transit service meet your needs?
Many of the additional comments were supportive of introducing a transit system to LFCC in
Middletown. Several of the most common comments were:
1. It would help with fuel and maintenance costs;
2. It would help those who have no other means to attend LFCC;
3. It would alleviate parking issues at LFCC;
4. It would help those with unreliable transportation;
5. It would help those who rely on others for rides to school.
Many respondents who said they would not use the service, still support creating one for those who
need it.
The most common complaint about having such a service were from individuals who would not use the
service and do not want to see higher school fees to support others’ use of such a service.
Lord Fairfax Community College
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
Appendix B
Community Survey and Detailed Results
Lord Fairfax Community College B-1
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
Appendix B
Community Survey and Detailed
Results
METHODOLOGY
One of the major components of determining the level of need for this feasibility study
was conducting both a student/faculty and community based survey (the Student and
Faculty results are analyzed in Appendix A). The Community Survey was developed
collaboratively between LFCC, WinFred MPO, and KFH Group. The survey was provided
in English and Spanish and made available online, via Survey Monkey, and through paper
copies which were distributed throughout the community. Survey responses were
received from November 5th to December 15th, 2015. A total of 337 surveys were received;
including 210 in English and 127 in Spanish. The following section provides a detailed
analysis of each question.
STUDENT AND FACULTY SURVEY
This section offers a detailed analysis of the results of the Community Survey. Each of the
13 questions and comment section are detailed in order. A copy of the Student and
Faculty Survey can be seen on the following pages.
Lord Fairfax Community College B-2
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
Community Survey (Front)
Lord Fairfax Community College B-3
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
Community Survey (Back)
Lord Fairfax Community College B-4
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
Question 1: Please indicate the number of people in your household by age group:
Answer Options Response
Average
Response
Total
Response
Count
Age 0 to 15 2.08 357 172
Age 16 to 18 1.20 90 75
Age 19 to 24 1.38 166 120
Age 25 to 44 2.08 448 215
Age 45 to 59 1.55 201 130
Age 60 to 69 2.09 140 67
Age 70+ 0.58 19 33
Answered Question 334
Skipped Question 3
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Age 0 to 15
Age 16 to 18
Age 19 to 24
Age 25 to 44
Age 45 to 59
Age 60 to 69
Age 70+
Lord Fairfax Community College B-5
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
Question 2: Please indicate how many of these individuals have a valid driver’s
license:
Answer Options Response
Percent
Response
Count
0 9.6% 32
1 25.9% 86
2 42.5% 141
3 12.7% 42
4 or more 9.3% 31
Answered Question 332
Skipped Question 5
9.6%
25.9%
42.5%
12.7%
9.3%
0
1
2
3
4 or more
Lord Fairfax Community College B-6
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
Question 3: How many working vehicles (cars/trucks/motorcycles) are available in
your household?
Answer Options Response
Percent
Response Count
0 5.7% 19
1 23.9% 80
2 43.9% 147
3 18.9% 63
4 or more 7.8% 26
Answered Question 335
Skipped Question 2
5.7%
23.9%
43.9%
18.9%
7.8%
0
1
2
3
4 or more
Lord Fairfax Community College B-7
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
Question 4: Please indicate your ZIP code:
Location Zip Code #
Winchester, VA 22601 158
Winchester, VA 22602 45
Woodstock, VA 22664 23
Stephens City, VA 22655 18
Winchester, VA 22603 17
Strasburg, VA 22657 13
Front Royal, VA 22630 6
Stephenson, VA 22656 5
Mount Jackson, VA 22842 5
New Market, VA 22844 5
Cross Junction, VA 22625 4
Luray, VA 22835 4
Clear Brook, VA 22624 3
Gore, VA 22637 3
Middletown, VA 22645 3
Edinburg, VA 22824 3
Mauertown, VA 22644 2
White Post, VA 22663 2
McLean, VA 22101 1
Winchester, VA 22604 1
Berryville, VA 22611 1
Strasburg, VA 22641 1
Star Tannery, VA 22654 1
Lord Fairfax Community College B-8
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
Basye, VA 22810 1
Stanley, VA 22851 1
Falling Waters, WV 25419 1
Inwood, WV 25428 1
Shepherdstown, WV 25443 1
Answered Question 329
Skipped Question 8
Lord Fairfax Community College B-9
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
Question 5: Please check any that apply:
Answer Options Response
Percent
Response Count
I am a student at LFCC 11.4% 32
I am a faculty/staff member at LFCC 7.5% 21
I am a LFCC Adult Education Student (ESOL/GED) 62.1% 174
I am a prospective LFCC student 22.5% 63
I applied to LFCC but chose not to enroll 3.6% 10
Answered Question 280
Skipped Question 57
11.4%
7.5%
62.1%
22.5%
3.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
I am a student at
LFCC
I am a faculty/staff
member at LFCC
I am a LFCC Adult
Education Student
(ESOL/GED)
I am a prospective
LFCC student
I applied to LFCC
but chose not to
enroll
Lord Fairfax Community College B-10
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
Question 6: What is your primary mode of transportation to access work, school,
shopping, medical appointments, and other life activities?
Answers Response
Percent
Response Count
Drive myself 57.8% 193
Carpool with others – I am usually the driver 1.5% 5
Carpool with others – I am usually the passenger 7.8% 26
A friend or family member drives me 17.4% 58
Motorcycle/Moped 0.3% 1
Bicycle 2.1% 7
Walk 4.8% 16
Public Transportation 6% 20
Taxi 1.8% 6
Combination 0.3% 1
Medicaid Cab/Van 0.3% 1
Answered Question 334
Skipped Question 3
57.8%
7.8%
17.4%
4.8%
6.0%
6.3%
Drive myself
Carpool with others – I am
usually the passenger
A friend or family member
drives me
Walk
Public Transportation
Other
Lord Fairfax Community College B-11
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
Question 7: It is anticipated that any new public transit service to LFCC would use
small buses to connect parts of the surrounding communities, with marked stops,
and service open to anybody who wishes to ride and pay the fare. Do you think
that there is a need for this type of public transit service?
There were many more respondents in favor of establishing the service. The top 3 comments in support
of the service were:
1. Generally supportive;
2. Many individuals do not have a car or license;
3. Many individuals have to share their vehicle with family members or friends.
The top 3 comments against the proposed service were:
1. Individuals would not use it;
2. Individuals are not sure if they use it;
3. Individuals have no opinion on the matter.
91.8%
8.2%
For
Against
Lord Fairfax Community College B-12
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
Question 8: If public transportation were to be provided to and from LFCC’s
Middletown Campus, which of the following should be the highest priority?
(Please check only three)
Answers
Response
Percent Response Count
Service to/from Winchester 64.1% 207
High frequency service (hourly or better) 43.7% 141
Morning service (before 8 a.m.) 38.1% 123
Evening service (after 5 p.m.) 37.5% 121
Service geared toward employment 16.4% 53
Service to/from Stephens City 15.5% 50
Service to/from Front Royal 13.9% 45
WIFI onboard buses 13.3% 43
Saturday service 12.7% 41
Service around the campus 4.3% 14
Service to/from Woodstock 1.9% 6
Service to/from Strasburg 0.9% 3
Service to/from Mount Jackson 0.9% 3
Service to/from Luray 0.6% 2
Mainly any hour 0.6% 2
Coordinate with classes 0.6% 2
During any extracurricular activity/event at LFCC 0.6% 2
Anytime you need one 0.3% 1
It would be determined by the needs of those enrolled 0.3% 1
Lord Fairfax Community College B-13
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
From Middletown-Winchester and anywhere in between 0.3% 1
Stop convenience 0.3% 1
At least two runs in the morning and two in the afternoon 0.3% 1
9:00 AM 0.3% 1
Strasburg to Middletown 0.3% 1
Service to Shenandoah County 0.3% 1
Service to/from Brunswick or Manassas to facilitate
transportation to/from Washington, DC
0.3% 1
Morning, midday or early evening routes 0.3% 1
7 AM to 4 PM 0.3% 1
They all should be of highest priority 0.3% 1
I would not use 0.3% 1
Service for the 7 Berryville Pike 0.3% 1
Service to/from Stephenson 0.3% 1
Service for kids to get to school 0.3% 1
Sunday service 0.3% 1
Every half hour 0.3% 1
Service to/from New Market 0.3% 1
Answered Question 323
Skipped Question 14
Lord Fairfax Community College B-14
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
Question 9: Would you or members of your household use public transit service
to/from LFCC? If yes, how often?
58.8%
41.3%
Yes
No
Answer Options Response
Percent Response Count
Yes 58.8% 188
No 41.3% 132
Answered Question 320
Skipped Question 17
Lord Fairfax Community College B-15
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
Top Comments in Regards to Expected Use of Proposed Transit System
Comment Response
Percent Response Count
Daily 33.1% 47
1 – 4 days a week 27.5% 39
When needed 13.4% 19
Depending on school schedule 7.7% 11
Often 4.9% 7
Unsure 4.2% 6
Rarely 1.4% 2
Other 7.7% 11
Comments 142
Question 10: If you were to choose a central pickup and drop-off location in your
community for transportation to LFCC where would it be? (Example: Piccadilly St
and Loudoun St in Winchester, East Main Street and Church Street in Front Royal,
etc.)
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
Daily
1 – 4 days a week
When needed
Depending on school schedule
Often
Unsure
Rarely
Other
Lord Fairfax Community College B-16
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
Total
Locations Town
Responses
per Town Locality
Responses
per Locality
Specific
Location
# of
Responses
313 Total
Locations
Winchester 214
Central
Winchester 133
Piccadilly &
Loudoun 51
Loudoun St. 22
Downtown 16
Near Cork &
Braddock 9
Boscawen
Transfer
Station
8
Other 27
East
Winchester 34
Apple
Blossom
Mall
7
Near
Millwood
Pike &
Pleasant
Valley
7
Wal-Mart 4
Shawnee &
Papermill 3
Other 13
Rt. 11 /
Valley
Avenue
Area
28
Valley
Avenue 12
Near Ward
Plaza 7
Valley &
Jubal Early 5
Other 4
Northwest
Winchester 7
Additional
Winchester 12
Woodstock 24
Stephens
City 18
Strasburg 17
Front Royal 17
Other 23
Lord Fairfax Community College B-17
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
Question 11: What fare would you be willing to pay for a one-way public transit
trip?
Answers Response
Percent Response Count
$0.50 16.0% 51
$0.75 6.9% 22
$1.00 32.1% 102
$1.25 6.0% 19
$1.50 17.6% 56
More than $1.50 21.4% 68
Answered Question 318
Skipped Question 19
Question 12: If public transit service were to be implemented, which days of the
week should service operate to the LFCC Middletown Campus? (Check all that
apply)
Answers Response
Percent Response Count
All weekdays 85.0% 273
Only some weekdays 14.0% 45
Saturdays 16.2% 52
Sundays 5.6% 18
Answered Question 321
Skipped Question 16
Lord Fairfax Community College B-18
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
Question 13: Please provide any additional comments you may have concerning
the need for public transportation to access LFCC or other destinations in the
region.
Comment #
Supportive 46
Improve regional transportation 40
Transportation is a barrier to LFCC 27
County of Frederick (Winchester,
Middletown, Stephens City) 17
Out-of-state Destinations 14
Transportation is expensive 12
Shenandoah County (Edinburg, Woodstock,
Strasburg) 10
Unreliable Transportation 7
Coordinate buses with class schedule 4
Utilize Winchester City public transportation 4
Poor existing public transportation 3
Uncertain 3
To LFCC 3
Mobile App 2
Events 2
Service between LFCC campuses 2
Connect to senior centers 2
Inform the public about LFCC 1
Make this available to Adult Ed. 1
Walking is unsafe 1
Connect to high schools 1
Lord Fairfax Community College B-19
Public Transit Feasibility Study
Appendix B: Community Survey and Detailed Results
Reach out to inform the poor 1
Later service on Friday & Saturday 1
Rt. 37 1
Front Royal to LFCC 1
direct route 1
monthly/semester pass 1
bus shelter 1
student discount 1
more space needed for books, etc. 1
On-Demand Service 1
Monday-Thursday 1
Reliability is most important 1
$5 OK 1
Monday & Friday Service 1
Front Royal Hospital 1
It should be free 1
It is dangerous to drive when it rains 1
Park and Ride at Reliance and 81 1
Answered Question 133
Skipped Question 204
Item 7: County Projects Update
Snowden Bridge Boulevard:
Construction is underway and on schedule at this time. Expected completion in
approximately one (1) month.
Tevis Street Extension/Airport Road/I-81 Bridge:
The revenue sharing agreement has been executed and design is once again
underway on the bridge. In addition, the traffic impact analysis that will
determine the design specifics for the Airport Road is underway and a draft is
expected shortly.
Renaissance Drive:
Transportation Partnership Opportunity Fund application has been submitted
which could change the project from a grade to a bridge crossing. Staff is
coordinating with CSX and VDOT to complete an MOU for the process of getting
the crossing as well as determining unimproved rail crossings for upgrade.
Following a meeting with local stakeholders, Staff is also proceeding to the
Finance Committee to seek approval to begin design work on the surface street
while the current grant application for the bridge is pending.
Valley Mill Road Realignment:
Thirty percent design has been completed and the County’s on call consultant is
providing an updated cost estimate to complete design through 100%. Upon
approval by the private party partner, the next phase of design will begin.
Coverstone Drive:
No activity at this time.
Jubal Early Drive Extension and Interchange with Route 37:
Initial meetings regarding a draft agreement and follow up application for
additional revenue sharing funds has been held with the private partner team.
Item 8: Other