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PC 10-07-15 Meeting Agenda AGENDA FREDERICK COUNTY PLANNING COMMISSION The Board Room Frederick County Administration Building Winchester, Virginia October 7, 2015 7:00 P.M. CALL TO ORDER TAB 1) Adoption of Agenda: Pursuant to established procedures, the Planning Commission should adopt the Agenda for the meeting ................................................................ (no tab) 2) September 16, 2015 Minutes ........................................................................................... (A) 3) Committee Reports .................................................................................................. (no tab) 4) Citizen Comments ................................................................................................... (no tab) PUBLIC HEARING 5) Rezoning #05-15 HIATT RUN CONDOS, LLC submitted by GreyWolfe, Inc., to rezone 3.00 acres from the RA (Rural Areas) District to the RP (Residential Performance) District with proffers. This property is located eastern side of Martinsburg Pike (Route 11) just before Old Charlestown Road (Route 761). The property is identified with Property Identification Number 44-A-17 in the Stonewall Magisterial District. Mr. Ruddy ....................................................................................................................... (B) 6) POSTPONED BY APPLICANT Rezoning #06-15 OPEQUON CROSSING submitted by Pennoni Associates, to revise proffers associated with Rezoning #04-07 and Rezoning #12-07. This revision relates specifically to the monetary transportation credits. The properties are located south of the existing terminus of Eddys Lane (Route 820) approximately south of Route 7 and adjacent to Opequon Creek. The properties are identified with Property Identification Numbers 55-A-210, 55-A-212 and 55-A-212A in the Redbud Magisterial District. INFORMATION/DISCUSSION ITEM 7) 2035 Comprehensive Plan Appendix II Review. Mr. Ruddy ........................................................................................................................ (C) Other Adjourn Commonly Used Planning Agenda Terms Meeting format Citizen Comments – The portion of the meeting agenda offering an opportunity for the public to provide comment to the Planning Commission on any items not scheduled as public hearing items. Public Hearing– A specific type of agenda item, required by State law, which incorporates public comment as a part of that item prior to Planning Commission or Board of Supervisors action. Public hearings are held for items such as: Comprehensive Plan policies and amendments; Zoning and Subdivision Ordinance amendments; and Rezoning and Conditional Use Permit applications. Following the Public Hearing, the Planning Commission will take action on the item (see below). Action Item–There are both public hearing and non-public hearing items on which the Planning Commission takes action. Depending on the actual item, the Planning Commission may approve, deny, table, or forward a recommendation to the Board of Supervisors regarding the agenda item. No public comment is accepted during the Action Item portion of the agenda. Information/Discussion Item– The portion of the meeting agenda where items are presented to the Planning Commission for information and discussion. The Planning Commission may offer comments and suggestions, but does not take action on the agenda item. No public comment is accepted during the Information/Discussion Item portion of the agenda. Planning Terminology Urban Development Area or UDA – The UDA is the county’s urban growth boundary identified in the Comprehensive Plan in which more intensive forms of residential development will occur. The UDA is an area of the county where community facilities and public services are more readily available and are provided more economically. Sewer and Water Service Area or SWSA – The SWSA is the boundary identified in the Comprehensive Plan in which public water and sewer is or can be provided. The SWSA is consistent with the UDA in many locations; however the SWSA may extend beyond the UDA to promote commercial, industrial, and institutional land uses in area where residential land uses are not desirable. Land Use – Land Use is the nomenclature which refers to the type of activity which may occur on an area of land. Common land use categories include: agricultural, residential, commercial, and industrial. Zoning District - Zoning district refers to a specific geographic area that is subject to land use standards. Frederick County designates these areas, and establishes policies and ordinances over types of land uses, density, and lot requirements in each zone. Zoning is the main planning tool of local government to manage the future development of a community, protect neighborhoods, concentrate retail business and industry, and channel traffic. Rezoning – Rezoning is the process by which a property owner seeks to implement or modify the permitted land use activities on their land. A rezoning changes the permitted land use activities within the categories listed above under Land Use. Conditional Use Permit or CUP - A CUP allows special land uses which may be desirable, but are not always appropriate based on a location and surrounding land uses. The CUP requested use, which is not allowed as a matter of right within a zoning district, is considered through a public hearing process and usually contains conditions to minimize any impacts on surrounding properties. Ordinance Amendment – The process by which the County Code is revised. Often the revisions are the result of a citizen request with substantial justification supporting the change. Amendments ultimately proceed through a public hearing prior to the PC forwarding a recommendation to the Board of Supervisors. County Bodies Involved Board of Supervisors or BOS - Frederick County is governed by an elected Board of Supervisors composed of seven members, one from each magisterial district, and one chairman-at-large. The Board of Supervisors is the policy-making body of the county. Functions of the Board of Supervisors related to planning include making land use decisions, and establishing growth and development policies. Planning Commission or PC - The PC is composed of 13 members, two from each magisterial districts and one at-large, appointed by the Board of Supervisors. The Planning Commission serves in an advisory capacity to the Board of Supervisors which then takes final action on all planning, zoning, and land use matters. Comprehensive Plans and Programs Committee or CPPC – The CPPC is a major committee of the PC whose primary responsibility is to formulate land use policies that shape the location and timing of development throughout the County. Included in the work are studies of specific areas to develop guidelines for future land use within those areas. The CPPC also considers requests for amendments to the Comprehensive Plan. Decisions by CPPC are then forwarded to the PC for consideration. Development Review and Regulations Committee or DRRC – The DRRC is the second major committee of the PC whose primary responsibilities involve the implementation of the Comprehensive Plan in the form of Zoning and Subdivision ordinance requirements. Requests to amend the ordinances to the DRRC are made by the Board of Supervisors, Planning Commission, local citizens, businesses, or organizations. DRRC decisions are also forwarded to the PC for consideration. A Frederick County Planning Commission Page 3255 Minutes of September 16, 2015 MEETING MINUTES OF THE FREDERICK COUNTY PLANNING COMMISSION Held in the Board Room of the Frederick County Administration Building at 107 North Kent Street in Winchester, Virginia on September 16, 2015 PRESENT: June M. Wilmot, Chairman/Member at Large; Roger L. Thomas, Vice Chairman/Opequon District; Robert S. Molden, Opequon District; Gary R. Oates, Stonewall District; Lawrence R. Ambrogi, Shawnee District; H. Paige Manuel, Shawnee District; J. Rhodes Marston, Back Creek District; Charles F. Dunlap, Red Bud District; Christopher M. Mohn, Red Bud District; Roderick B. Williams, County Attorney; Robert Hess, Board of Supervisors Liaison. ABSENT: J. Stanley Crockett, Stonewall District; Greg L. Unger, Back Creek District; Kevin Kenney, Gainesboro District; Charles E. Triplett, Gainesboro District; STAFF PRESENT: Eric R. Lawrence, Planning Director; Candice E. Perkins, Senior Planner; Mark R. Cheran, Zoning and Subdivision Administrator; and Shannon L. Conner, Administrative Assistant. CALL TO ORDER Chairman Wilmot called the September 16, 2015 meeting of the Frederick County Planning Commission to order at 7:00 p.m. Chairman Wilmot commenced the meeting by inviting everyone to join in a moment of silence. ------------- ADOPTION OF AGENDA Upon motion made by Commissioner Oates and seconded by Commissioner Manuel, the Planning Commission unanimously adopted the agenda for this evening’s meeting. ------------- MINUTES Upon motion made by Commissioner Oates and seconded by Commissioner Manuel, the Planning Commission adopted the minutes of their August 19, 2015 meeting. (Note: Commissioner Dunlap abstained) ------------- Frederick County Planning Commission Page 3256 Minutes of September 16, 2015 COMMITTEE REPORTS Comprehensive Plans and Programs Committee – Mtg. 9/14/15 Commissioner Oates reported the committee reviewed the maps for the 2035 Comprehensive Update. He noted the maps were very well detailed and praised the effort put forth on these. City of Winchester Planning Commission – Mtg. 9/15/15 Commissioner Smith reported discussion was held on two items: an ordinance regarding breweries and distilleries; and an ordinance to rezone 16.4 acres containing approximately 96 parcels for the Corridor Enhancement Project which will be on National Avenue. Board of Supervisors Report – Mtg. 9/9/15 Board of Supervisors’ Liaison, Supervisor Robert Hess, reported the agenda included several Planning Commission items and they are as follows: A Public Hearing for Jackson’s Retreat regarding a waiver request to eliminate sidewalks and streetlights, this was approved; Discussion on the Hiatt Run Condominiums Master Plan presented for information only; Discussion of an ordinance amendment to permit self-storage facilities in the RA (Rural Area) District, the Board moved this item forward to Public Hearing; An ordinance amendment regarding variance requirements to bring the County into compliance with changes in the state code, it was agreed to move this forward to Public Hearing; Discussion on an ordinance amendment regarding setbacks from Agricultural & Forestal Districts for parcels less than six (6) acres, this was moved forward to Public Hearing; Discussion on the Kernstown Area Plan, it was decided more time is needed before a decision can be made to move the item forward. ------------- CITIZEN COMMENTS Chairman Wilmot called for citizen comments on any subject not currently on the Planning Commission’s agenda or any item that is solely a discussion item for the Commission. No one came forward to speak and Chairman Wilmot closed the citizen comments portion of the meeting. ------------- PUBLIC HEARING Conditional Use Permit #02-15 for James Brown and Susan Brown, for a Kennel. The property is located at 719 Barley Lane. The property is identified with Property Identification Number 61-A- 23 in the Back Creek Magisterial District. Action – Recommend Approval Frederick County Planning Commission Page 3257 Minutes of September 16, 2015 Zoning and Subdivision Administrator, Mark R. Cheran reported this request for a CUP (Conditional Use Permit) is for a dog kennel which will be for breeding purposes only. He explained, the property is zoned RA (Rural Area) and is surrounded by properties that are also zoned RA. Mr. Cheran noted the nearest residential dwelling is approximately 500 to 1000 feet from the kennel. Mr. Cheran explained kennels are a permitted use in the RA (Rural Area) Zoning District with an approved CUP (Conditional Use Permit). This proposed use will take place on a 154.75+/- acre parcel; surrounded by properties that are zoned RA (Rural Area). Mr. Cheran noted the 2030 Comprehensive Policy Plan of Frederick County identifies this area of the County to remain rural in nature and the property is not part of any land use study. Mr. Cheran reported the applicant will be utilizing a 34x12 square foot enclosed kennel for adult dogs, a 12x24 foot building for storage, and two 10x16 foot enclosed kennels for whelping and weaning in the rear of the property. He noted there will be a fenced area for the dogs to the rear of the residence. Mr. Cheran noted staff recommends the following conditions be attached to the CUP (Conditional Use Permit): 1. All review agency comments shall be complied with at all times. 2. This CUP is solely to enable the breeding of dogs on this property. 3. No more than twenty (20) dogs and puppies shall be permitted on the property at any given time. 4. No employees other than those residing on the property shall be allowed. 5. All dogs shall be controlled so as not to create a nuisance to any adjoining properties by roaming free or barking. 6. All dogs must be confined indoors by 9:00 p.m. and not let outdoors prior to 8:00 a.m. 7. Any proposed business sign shall conform to Cottage Occupation sign requirements and shall not exceed four (4) square feet in size and five (5) feet in height. 8. Any expansion or modification of this use will require the approval of a new CUP. Mr. Cheran noted the Applicant is present to answer any questions the Planning Commission may have. Commissioner Mohn inquired should condition #3 state no more than twenty (20) adult dogs rather than twenty (20) dogs and puppies. Mr. Cheran explained after speaking with the Applicant and Commissioner Marston a change was made to condition #3 of the proposed CUP to state twenty (20) adult dogs. Commissioner Mohn commented the change makes good sense. Commissioner Marston reported he has spent some time at the kennel location and discussed the number of dogs with the Applicant. Commissioner Marston noted he and the Applicant are satisfied with condition #3 stating twenty (20) adult dogs. Mr. James M. Brown of the Back Creek Magisterial District came forward to answer any further questions. He recommended those interested visit the website of the kennel-dog breeding facility. Mr. Brown noted he appreciates the Planning Commissions interest in the number of dogs being permitted. Mr. Brown explained he had no idea at the beginning of this venture how it would positively affect his livelihood. He and his family have thoroughly enjoyed the people and situations brought to them by this opportunity. Frederick County Planning Commission Page 3258 Minutes of September 16, 2015 Chairman Wilmot opened the public hearing to citizen comments. No one came forward to speak and Chairman Wilmot closed the public comment portion of the hearing. Upon motion made by Commissioner Marston and seconded by Commissioner Thomas, BE IT RESOLVED, that the Frederick County Planning Commission does hereby unanimously recommend approval of Conditional Use Permit #02-15 for James Brown and Susan Brown, for a Kennel. The property is located at 719 Barley Lane. The property is identified with Property Identification Number 61-A-23 in the Back Creek Magisterial District. (Note: Commissioners Crockett, Kenney, Unger, and Triplett were absent from the meeting) ------------- INFORMATION/ DISCUSSION ITEM I-81 Distribution Park – Stonewall (Stonewall Industrial Park) Site Plan. The site plan for the I-81 Distribution Park, located on Tyson Drive in the Stonewall Industrial Park is being presented as an information item due to its impacts on the Route 37 right-of-way. Senior Planner, Candice E. Perkins reported this site plan is presented due to its implications on the planned path for Route 37. She explained the site is located in the Stonewall Industrial Park in the Stonewall Magisterial District. Ms. Perkins noted the plans for Stonewall Industrial Park do not accommodate the Route 37 right-of-way. She identified the property as being located at the corner of Tyson Drive and Welltown Road and contains a 330,050 square foot warehouse structure that is within the path of Route 37. Ms. Perkins explained, in an effort to keep the Planning Commission and Board of Supervisors apprised of the Route 37 right-of-way, site plans and subdivisions that impact the right-of-way are presented for their review. There were no questions or comments from the Planning Commission at this time. Supplementary Use Regulations – Setback Extensions. Discussion on revision to the Frederick County Zoning Ordinance to revise the Supplementary Use Regulations for setback extensions. Senior Planner, Candice E. Perkins reported in 2011 the RP (Residential Performance) District setbacks and dimensional requirements were revised to introduce setbacks for unroofed decks and structures. She noted with that revision, the allowance for extensions into the setback within the supplementary use regulations was changed to eliminate the RP and R4 (Residential Planned Community) Districts. Ms. Perkins explained since the RP dimensional requirements also apply to the R5 (Residential Recreational Community) District, the R5 District should have also been removed from the supplementary use regulations extension provision (leaving only the RA and MH1 in the supplementary use section). Ms. Perkins reported a minor revision has been prepared to remove the R5 from the supplementary use regulation setback extension to ensure that R5 developments (Lake Holliday, Lake Frederick, Shawneeland, and Mountain Falls) all utilize the RP deck and stoop setback extension as intended. Ms. Perkins noted the DRRC discussed this amendment at their August 2015 meeting and agreed with the proposed changes as drafted. Frederick County Planning Commission Page 3259 Minutes of September 16, 2015 Commissioner Oates commented this is a clean-up exercise and he agrees with the amendment. There were no further questions of comments from the Planning Commission at this time. ------------- OTHER Chairman Wilmot noted the Planning Commission will hold the meeting scheduled for October 7, 2015. ------------- ADJOURNMENT No further business remained to be discussed and a motion was made by Commissioner Oates to adjourn the meeting. This motion was seconded by Commissioner Thomas and unanimously passed. The meeting adjourned at 7:20 p.m. Respectfully submitted, ____________________________ June M. Wilmot, Chairman ____________________________ Eric R. Lawrence, Secretary B REZONING APPLICATION #05-15 HIATT RUN CONDOS, LLC Staff Report for the Planning Commission Prepared: September 25, 2015 Staff Contact: Michael T. Ruddy, AICP, Deputy Planning Director Reviewed Action Planning Commission: 10/07/15 Pending Board of Supervisors: 10/28/15 Pending PROPOSAL: To rezone 3.00 acres from the RA (Rural Areas) District to RP (Residential Performance) District with proffers. LOCATION: The property is located on the eastern side of Martinsburg Pike (Route 11) just before Old Charlestown Road (Route 761). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY & STAFF CONCLUSIONS FOR THE 10/07/15 PLANNING COMMISSION MEETING: This request to rezone three acres from the RA (Rural Areas) District to the RP (Residential Performance) District would appear to be appropriate when considering the limitations on the residential use of the property provided in the Applicant’s proffer statement (the Applicant has proffered that no residential structures are to be located on the property) and the adjacent residential development, recently approved by the County, into which this property has been adjusted. The adjacent residential development is the Hiatt Run Condominium project. There are no anticipated issues or additional impacts associated with this proposed rezoning request, most particularly, as no additional residential uses or buildings will be constructed on the three acres subject to this rezoning request. While the residential land use proposed with this plan is inconsistent with the Northeast Land Use Plan, as it is outside of the UDA, it can be said that the environmental and recreation land use components of the application are in line with the 2030 Comprehensive Plan and the most recent McCann-Slaughter Amendment to the Northeast Land Use Plan. The majority of the subject property is currently zoned RP (Residential Performance) District. This three acre minor portion of the property was recently incorporated into the property by a Boundary Line Adjustment. Further, the Master Development Plan for the Hiatt Run Condominiums immediately to the west of this property (and now incorporated into the property) was approved meeting all County standards. The subject property is also located within the Sewer and Water Service Area (SWSA). The rezoning application, and its proffered conditions, appear to be an appropriate land use. Any issues brought forth by the Planning Commission should be appropriately addressed by the applicant. Following the required public hearing, a recommendation regarding this rezoning application to the Board of Supervisors would be appropriate. The applicant should be prepared to adequately address all concerns raised by the Planning Commission. Rezoning #05-15 Hiatt Run Condos, LLC September 25, 2015 Page 2 This report is prepared by the Frederick County Planning Staff to provide information to the Planning Commission and the Board of Supervisors to assist them in making a decision on this application. It may also be useful to others interested in this zoning matter. Unresolved issues concerning this application are noted by staff where relevant throughout this staff report. Reviewed Action Planning Commission: 10/07/15 Pending Board of Supervisors: 10/28/15 Pending PROPOSAL: To rezone 3.00 acres from the RA (Rural Areas) District to RP (Residential Performance) District with proffers. LOCATION: The property is located on the eastern side of Martinsburg Pike (Route 11) just before Old Charlestown Road (Route 761) MAGISTERIAL DISTRICT: Stonewall PROPERTY ID NUMBERS: 44-A-17 PROPERTY ZONING: RA (Rural Areas) District PRESENT USE: Vacant ADJOINING PROPERTY ZONING & PRESENT USE: North: RA (Rural Areas) Use: Vacant/Agriculture South: RA (Rural Areas) Use: Residential East: RA (Rural Areas) Use: Vacant/Agriculture West: RP (Residential Performance) Use: Residential Rezoning #05-15 Hiatt Run Condos, LLC September 25, 2015 Page 3 REVIEW EVALUATIONS: Public Works Department: We do not have any comments concerning the proposed rezoning. Frederick County Park & Recreation: Parks and Recreation supports the proffers identified in the rezoning request. Frederick County Attorney: Please see attached letter from Rod Williams, dated August 11, 2015. Planning & Zoning: 1) Site History The original Frederick County Zoning Map (U.S.G.S. Stephenson Quadrangle) depicts the zoning for the subject parcel as A-2 (Agricultural General) District. The County’s agricultural zoning districts were combined to form the RA (Rural Areas) District upon adoption of an amendment to the Frederick County Zoning Ordinance on May 10, 1989. The corresponding revision of the zoning map resulted in the re-mapping of the subject property and all other A-1 and A-2 zoned land to the RA District. In 2015 a Master Development Plan MPD #04-15, the Hiatt Run Condominiums Master Development Plan, was approved by the County that enabled the development of 120 units contained within eight garden apartment buildings. A Boundary Line Adjustment Plat was approved that incorporated this three acre parcel into the Hiatt Run property on July 29, 2015. 2) Comprehensive Policy Plan The 2030 Comprehensive Plan is the guide for the future growth of Frederick County. Land Use The 2030 Comprehensive Plan and the Northeast Frederick Land Use Plan provide guidance on the future development of the property. The property is located within the Sewer and Water Service Area (SWSA). It is located outside of the Urban Development Area (UDA). The 2030 Comprehensive Plan identifies the general area surrounding this property with a Developmentally Sensitive Area designation, and in the area immediately east of this property, with an OM (Office Manufacturing) District land use designation. In general, the proposed residential land use would be inconsistent with the current land use plan. However, it is recognized that the proposed residential project immediately to the west of this 3 acre property was rezoned and master planned for residential uses with the approval of the County (this property was previously within the UDA). Further, the proffered recreational context and environmental preservation proposed for this property would be consistent with the current land use supported by the Comprehensive Plan. As noted, the Northeast Frederick Land Use Plan Rezoning #05-15 Hiatt Run Condos, LLC September 25, 2015 Page 4 continues to promote such environmental and recreational land uses in this area through the DSA designation. Careful consideration was given to ensure that no additional residential density would be permitted based on this rezoning and that no residential land uses would be permitted within this area to be rezoned. This would be inconsistent with the land use plan. As proposed in the proffer statement, no residential buildings will be located on these 3 acres. Therefore, no additional residential density may be gained with the rezoning of this property. It should be recognized that uses accessory to the residential development would still be permitted if this property is rezoned. As noted in the proffer statement, this may include a community center, manager’s office, parking, garages, open space, and recreational amenities. 3) Potential Impacts Site Access and Transportation Access to the site will be via the Hiatt Run Condominium project immediately to the west and more specifically, through the two entrances shown on the approved Master Development Plan for Hiatt Run Condominiums. Environment Hiatt Run, a tributary to Opequon Creek, flows through the southern portion of parcel 44-A-17. There is a zoning ordinance requirement for a riparian buffer along natural waterways in Frederick County. No development or land disturbance is permitted in a riparian buffer, other than the recreational area and trails within the open space for this development. Floodplains also exist on the property. 4) Proffer Statement A) Allowed Uses: The Applicant has proffered that the three acres that will be rezoned will not contain any residential uses. In addition, all other uses in the RP (Residential Performance) District have been excluded with the exception of a community center, manager’s office, parking, garages, open space, and recreational amenities. B) Access Management and Transportation: The Applicant has committed to utilize for access to the property, the two entrances shown on the approved Master Development Plan for the Hiatt Run Condominiums, MDP #04-15. Therefore, there will be no additional access to this site via McCanns Lane or Martinsburg Pike. C) Site Development: The Applicant has proffered to construct a public hiker/biker trail, the location of which is shown on the Generalized Development Plan for this site included in the proffer statement. The public trail is actually located on the adjacent property within a proposed 20’ easement. In Rezoning #05-15 Hiatt Run Condos, LLC September 25, 2015 Page 5 conjunction with the trail, a fence will be constructed by the Applicant. It is recognized that the trail and fence will be conducted in two phases; Phase One to be completed by July 1, 2018, and Phase Two to be completed by July 1, 2021 or prior to the final Certificate of Occupancy Permit of the 120th apartment unit in the Hiatt Run project located on this property. STAFF CONCLUSIONS FOR THE 10/07/15 PLANNING COMMISSION MEETING: This request to rezone three acres from the RA (Rural Areas) District to the RP (Residential Performance) District would appear to be appropriate when considering the limitations on the use of the property provided in the Applicant’s proffer statement and the adjacent residential development, recently approved by the County, into which this property has been adjusted. There are no anticipated issues or additional impacts associated with this proposed rezoning request, most particularly, as no additional residential uses or buildings will be constructed on the three acres subject to this rezoning request. While the residential land use proposed with this plan is inconsistent with the Northeast Land Use Plan, as it is outside of the UDA, it can be said that the environmental and recreation land use components of the application are in line with the 2030 Comprehensive Plan and the most recent McCann-Slaughter Amendment to the Northeast Land Use Plan. The majority of the subject property is currently zoned RP (Residential Performance) District. Further, the Master Development Plan for the Hiatt Run Condominiums immediately to the west of this property (and now incorporated in to the property) was approved meeting all County standards. The subject property is also located within the Sewer and Water Service Area (SWSA). Any issues brought forth by the Planning Commission should be appropriately addressed by the applicant. Following the required public hearing, a recommendation regarding this rezoning application to the Board of Supervisors would be appropriate. The applicant should be prepared to adequately address all concerns raised by the Planning Commission. 0111 2118MARTINSBURGPIKE 2110MARTINSBURGPIKE 142MCCANNS RD 2126MARTINSBURGPIKE 170MCCANNS RD 2142MARTINSBURGPIKE2142MARTINSBURGPIKE 2158MARTINSBURGPIKE 102MCCANNS RD 2157MARTINSBURGPIKE 207EBERT RD 207EBERT RD 2239MARTINSBURGPIKE 195EBERT RD 2251MARTINSBURGPIKE 2259MARTINSBURGPIKE 2269MARTINSBURGPIKE 2279MARTINSBURGPIKE 116EBERT RD 114EBERT RD 2359MARTINSBURGPIKE 140JIREHLANE 2379MARTINSBURGPIKE EBERT R D MART I N S B U R G PIKE MCCA N N S R D Applications Parcels Building Footprints I Note:Frederick County Dept ofPlanning & Development107 N Kent StSuite 202Winchester, VA 22601540 - 665 - 5651Map Created: September 14, 2015Staff: mruddy Stephenson MART I N S B U R G P I K E MCCA N N S R D EBERT R D 0111 REZ # 05 - 15Hiatt Run Condos LLCPIN:44 - A - 17RA to RP 0 320 640160 Feet REZ 05-15 REZ # 05 - 15Hiatt Run Condos LLCPIN:44 - A - 17RA to RP 44 A 17 0111 2100MARTINSBURGPIKE2094MARTINSBURGPIKE2088MARTINSBURGPIKE 142MCCANNS RD 2110MARTINSBURGPIKE 2126MARTINSBURGPIKE 2118MARTINSBURGPIKE 170MCCANNS RD2142MARTINSBURGPIKE 2123MARTINSBURGPIKE 2158MARTINSBURGPIKE2142MARTINSBURGPIKE 2135MARTINSBURGPIKE 102MCCANNS RD 2157MARTINSBURGPIKE 207EBERT RD 207EBERT RD 2239MARTINSBURGPIKE 195EBERT RD 2251MARTINSBURGPIKE 2259MARTINSBURGPIKE 2269MARTINSBURGPIKE 2279MARTINSBURGPIKE 116EBERT RD 114EBERT RD 2359MARTINSBURGPIKE 2379MARTINSBURGPIKE EBERT R D MART I N S B U R G PIKE MCCA N N S R D Applications Parcels Building Footprints B1 (Business, Neighborhood District) B2 (Business, General Distrist) B3 (Business, Industrial Transition District) EM (Extractive Manufacturing District) HE (Higher Education District) M1 (Industrial, Light District) M2 (Industrial, General District) MH1 (Mobile Home Community District) MS (Medical Support District) OM (Office - Manufacturing Park) R4 (Residential Planned Community District) R5 (Residential Recreational Community District) RA (Rural Area District) RP (Residential Performance District) I Note:Frederick County Dept ofPlanning & Development107 N Kent StSuite 202Winchester, VA 22601540 - 665 - 5651Map Created: September 14, 2015Staff: mruddy Stephenson MART I N S B U R G P I K E MCCA N N S R D EBERT R D 0111 REZ # 05 - 15Hiatt Run Condos LLCPIN:44 - A - 17RP to RA 0 320 640160 Feet REZ 05-15 REZ # 05 - 15Hiatt Run Condos LLCPIN:44 - A - 17RP to RA 44 A 17 C COUNTY of FREDERICK Department of Planning and Development 540/ 665-5651 Fax: 540/ 665-6395 107 North Kent Street, Suite 202  Winchester, Virginia 22601-5000 MEMORANDUM TO: Planning Commission FROM: Michael T. Ruddy, AICP, Deputy Director RE: 2030 Comprehensive Plan 5-year Update – Appendix II; Background Studies and Analysis Draft. DATE: September 25, 2015 The Comprehensive Plans and Programs Committee (CPPC), on behalf of the Frederick County Planning Commission, initiated the 5-year review and update of the 2030 Comprehensive Plan, the 2035 Comprehensive Plan. Over the past several months the CPPC has reviewed and updated Appendix II – Background Analysis and Supporting Studies. This draft of Appendix II represents Phase 1 of the update and is presented to the Planning Commission at this time. Phase 1 includes the following information:  Demographic Analysis (Completed in July)  Economic Analysis (Completed in August)  Land Use Analysis; including SWSA needs analysis with FCSA strategies, and C&I analysis of the 25/75 Ratio throughout the County (Completed in September) When compiled with the Geographical Setting and Historical Background components, which have not changed, this constitutes a draft version of Appendix II; Background Analysis and Supporting Studies. Previously, Staff provided a schedule to the Planning Commission and Board of Supervisors outlining the three-phase approach and timetable for the 2035 update. As you are aware, it is the goal to complete the update by the spring 2016, approximately twelve months from when the CPPC started in June 2015. In addition to Phase 1, described above, the three-phase approach to the Update includes; Phase 2, the CPPC and Blue Ribbon Group review and update of key sections of the Plan, including; Residential Development, Business Development, Transportation, and Natural Memo: 2035 Comprehensive Plan 5-year Update – Appendix II. September 25, 2015. Page 2. Resources, Historical Resources, and Public Facilities, and Phase 3, the Planning Commission Review of 2035 Update, followed by Board of Supervisors direction to move forward with additional public outreach. This would include Community Meetings and ultimately, the Public Hearing Process and Approval. Staff will provide the Planning Commission an overview of Phase 1 of the 2035 update, Appendix II; Background Analysis and Supporting Studies. In addition, Staff will update the Planning Commission on Phase 2, the CPPC and Blue Ribbon Group review and update of key sections of the Plan, including; Residential Development, Business Development, Transportation, and Natural Resources, Historical Resources, and Public Facilities, which will be proceeding in October, November, and December of 2015. Please contact me if you have any questions or would like to provide additional input. MTR/dlw Attachments: Phase 1 – Demographic Analysis Economic Analysis Land Use Analysis APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 1  DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 2 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS HISTORICAL POPULATION Settlement of Frederick County began in the early 1700’s, but it was not until 1840, that the boundary of Frederick County was established to what we know today. Frederick County supports one of the faster growth rates of population in Virginia, and the rates of growth have accelerated in recent decades. During the 1970's, the population of the County grew by as many people as in the previous seven decades combined. In 2010, the population of Frederick County was 78,305. More recently, the population estimate for Frederick County in 2014 was 82,059. Since 1980 Frederick County population growth averaged 29.3% per decade. 21941 24,107 34,150 45,723 78,305 59,209 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 3 POPULATION ESTIMATES Frederick County growth rate is expected to continue in future decades and is estimated to be one of the faster growing communities in the Commonwealth of Virginia and the greater Washington D.C. region. The Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service population projections for 2020, 2030, and 2040 indicate this trend by projecting the population of Frederick County to be 97,192, 119,419, and 145,938 in the respective years. This trend is indicated in the following figure. 82,059 97,192 119,419 145,938 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 2014 2020 2030 2040 Source: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 4 POPULATION AND AGE DISTRIBUTION On average, the age of people living in Frederick County is increasing. Between 1990 through 2009, the median age of the population increased from 33 in 1990 to 39 in 2009. Overall, Frederick County’s population is slightly older than the Commonwealth as a whole (37.6 yrs) and the USA (37.1). Population Distribution: Frederick County Percent Change 1990 Census 2000 Census 2009 Estimate 2014 Projection 1990 to 2000 2009 to 2014 0 - 4 6.5% 7.6% 6.4% 6.2% 52.3% 7.0% 5 -19 22.2% 21.8% 20.4% 19.4% 26.8% 5.5% 20 - 24 4.7% 6.3% 6.1% 6.5% 73.5% 17.4% 25 - 44 31.9% 34.6% 27.8% 25.0% 40.5% -0.6% 45 - 64 24.1% 20.3% 27.5% 29.1% 9.2% 17.1% 65 and over 10.6% 9.4% 11.9% 13.8% 14.6% 28.2% Median Age 33.4 37.3 38.8 39.4 As the median age rose, the proportion of the population in the older age groups also increased. The percentage of the population age 65 or older in Frederick County has increased from 10.6% in 1990 to 11.9% in 2009. Projections for 2014 indicate a trend of increasing numbers of people of 65 or older. The population under the age of 18 has not increased as rapidly in recent decades. The proportion of the population under the age of eighteen in Frederick County now sits at 20%, down from 22.2% in 1990. This element should be evaluated further with the release of the complete 2010 census information. Current projections for 2014 indicate a continuation of past trend, an aging population. A major labor force category (25 – 44) is expected to have negative growth. This fact furthers enforces the need to analyze our regional labor force market to meet future employment needs. Projections show an increase of over 6,000 individuals who are 45 an d older. The school-aged segment of the population (5 – 19) is not expected to significantly increase. APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 5 Source: Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 6 DIVERSITY Diversity is becoming increasingly apparent in Frederick County. From 1990 to 2010, the area's population has experienced substantial increases individuals of Hispanic (over 5,000) and black ethnicity (over 3,000). The 2010 census has observed a continuation of these trends, which are reflective of greater national trends. Race and Ethnicity 1990 2000 2009 2014 American Indian, Eskimo, Aleut 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% 2.4% Asian 0.5% 0.7% 1.4% 1.5% Black 1.8% 2.6% 5.2% 7.3% White 97.4% 95.0% 91.2% 88.2% Other 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% Multi-Race 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% American Indian, Eskimo, Aleut 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% 2.4% Hispanic Ethnicity 0.6% 1.7% 7.8% 12.0% APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 1  ECONOMIC ANALYSIS APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 2 ECONOMIC ANALYSIS The study of the economy of Frederick County involves many factors. This chapter examines the change in employment sectors, the role of small business and top employers. Change in Frederick County’s economy, undoubtedly, is evident in this chapter; however, the strong signs of stability with appropriate diversity are particularly noteworthy. RECENT EMPLOYMENT COMPARISONS AND TRENDS An analysis of the employment segments reveals minimal overall change in the Frederick County economy since 2005. While the absolute number of employment change is significant for some of the largest employers, 4 of the top employers in 2005 remain ten years later. Health Care and Social Assistance and Accommodation and Food Services employment are the two new arrivals to the top employer list. The growth of Winchester Medical Center and Frederick County’s population remain likely reasons for its rise. Overall, retail trade displayed the largest growth of the top employers (+1,677). Manufacturing’s overall net increase is noteworthy given its decrease in the Commonwealth overall. Sector 2005Q4 Sector 2015Q4 Manufacturing 4,584 Manufacturing 5,033 Educational Services 2,552 Retail Trade 3,405 Construction 2,322 Educational Services 2,891 Retail Trade 1,728 Accommodation and Food Services 2,217 Wholesale Trade 1,481 Construction 2,004 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 1,254 Health Care and Social Assistance 1,925 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 3 Looking into the next twenty years, population increase and continued international economic forces will likely influence Frederick County’s economy and its largest employment sectors. Established clusters in food processing and plastic manufacturing coupled with the area’s sheer logistical advantages and workforce draw will likely keep manufacturing employment stable. Retail and healthcare growth, fueled by population growth, will gain additional employment and likely rise in its role within the economy. Joini ng the national and state trends, Frederick County will diversify further via service based employment. Professional service, finance and insurance employment will likely lead this surge. Although the major employment players remain mostly the same, their impact on the community has clearly changed. Viewing the growth in net new establishments provides an alternative view on the role of largest employment segments. The growth in the number of manufacturing establishments is a prime example. This fact along with overall positive employment growth in this sector demonstrates a very positive evolving manufacturing sector. The future of Frederick County’s economy shines bright given manufacturing’s noted large multiplier impact and above average wage. Overall, Frederick County added over 397 new establishments in the past ten years. Service based businesses; health care (+265) and accommodation and food services (+56) produced the largest net gain in new establishments since 2005. These sectors, however, collectively employ slightly half the employees of the manufacturing sector. Advancing twenty year’s health care and professional service entities will likely continue to add their totals furthering Frederick County’s diversification into a manufacturing/service based economy. Sector 2005Q1 Sector 2015Q1 Construction (23) 307 Health Care and Social Assistance (62) 313 Retail Trade (44) 163 Construction (23) 217 Other Services (except Public Administration) (81) 117 Retail Trade (44) 195 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (54) 102 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (54) 132 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services (56) 97 Other Services (except Public Administration) (81) 132 Wholesale Trade (42) 88 Accommodation and Food Services (72) 119 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 4 SMALL BUSINESS A discussion about any economy would be incomplete without reviewing the role of small businesses. Their importance to a community’s long term economic success cannot be overstated. In the United States overall, they employ nearly half of all private sector employees. They generated 60 to 80 percent of net new jobs annually over the last decade. The definition of small business varies widely. For this chapter purposes, small business will be identified as those employer with less than 19 employees. In 2004, 82.2% of all employers in Frederick County had less than 19 employees. Advance 10 years later, Frederick County experienced a slight increase to 83.5% of employers with less than 19 employees. Given the number of arrival/increase of large employers like Kraft, HP Hood, FEMA, and Valley Health Systems, the ability of small business to hold their role in Frederick County’s economy is impressive. Sector 2004Q4 Sector 2014Q4 Health Care and Social Assistance 38 Health Care and Social Assistance 274 Construction 261 Construction 186 Retail Trade 126 Retail Trade 148 Other Services (except Public Administration) 106 Other Services (except Public Administration) 126 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 81 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 120 Administrative and Support and Waste Management 95 Administrative and Support and Waste Management 97 Small business will retain the vast majority of employment in Frederick County. As such, entrepreneurship/small business development should remain one of the pinnacles of Frederick County’s economic development. It is a beacon indicating when a community has an ideal business climate – when all physical and soft infrastructure is in place to allow new companies to grow and the community to self-sustain economic growth. The community’s undeveloped entrepreneurial culture has often been highlighted in studies as a hurdle to continued economic growth. APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 5 CURRENT TOP EMPLOYERS The section will illustrate the evolution of Frederick County’s economy through the top ten employer rankings. Over ten years ago, Frederick County’s economy was chiefly led by major manufacturers and local government entities. Manufacturers established deep roots due to the area’s immense access to the East Coast, Virginia’s favorable cost of business and Frederick Count’s productive workforce. Employer Industry Size Class Frederick County School Board Educational Services 1000 and over employees County of Frederick Executive, Legislative, and Other General Government Support 500 to 999 employees World Wide Automotive LLC Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods 500 to 999 employees Action Executive Services Administrative and Support Services 250 to 499 employees American Woodmark Corporation Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing 250 to 499 employees H.P. Hood, Inc. Food Manufacturing 250 to 499 employees Lord Fairfax Community College Educational Services 250 to 499 employees GE Lighting Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing 250 to 499 employees Shockey Brothers, Inc. Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing 250 to 499 employees Glaize and Brothers Wood Product Manufacturing 100 to 249 employees APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 6 Today, the make-up of the largest employers is quite more diverse than 2004. While manufacturers still hold several slots in the top ten, many service base employers, like Navy Federal, Home Depot and Department of Homeland Defense, have provided a more diverse economy than 10 years ago. These new additions provide enhanced stability during instance of plant closures and national economic downturns. Employer Industry Size Class Frederick County School Board Educational Services 1000 and over employees Navy Federal Credit Union Credit Intermediation and Related Activities 1000 and over employees U.S. Department of Homeland Defense Administration of Economic Programs 500 to 999 employees County of Frederick Executive, Legislative, and Other General Government Support 500 to 999 employees Lord Fairfax Community College Educational Services 500 to 999 employees Axiom Staffing Group Administrative and Support Services 500 to 999 employees H.P. Hood, Inc. Food Manufacturing 250 to 499 employees Kraft Foods Food Manufacturing 250 to 499 employees The Home Depot Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers 250 to 499 employees Trex Company Inc & Subsid Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing 250 to 499 employees APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 7 FUTURE BUSINESS GROWTH In 20 years, the top employer listing may contain many of the same names, but likely they will be joined by some of employers of tomorrow. Third party analyses have indicated a strong likelihood of success toward other business service operations, life science entities and defense/advance security oriented businesses. The full list follows below. APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 8 CURRENT WORKFORCE DRAW Frederick County’s labor supply is drawn from a 45-mile radius and includes the counties of Shenandoah, Page, Clarke, Warren, Loudoun in Virginia, and the counties of Berkeley, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson, and Morgan in West Virginia and Washington County, Maryland As the table shows below, Frederick County possesses a diverse and ample labor force within its draw area as of 1st quarter 2015. Title Employment Avg. Annual Wages1 Unempl Unempl Rate Total - All Occupations 253,809 $42,900 n/a n/a Office and Administrative Support Occupations 40,060 $33,800 3,244 5.9% Sales and Related Occupations 28,909 $31,500 2,140 5.7% Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations 23,855 $21,200 2,846 8.4% Transportation and Material Moving Occupations 20,316 $33,800 1,697 6.9% Education, Training, and Library Occupations 16,550 $50,800 1,079 5.0% Production Occupations 16,456 $36,000 1,326 6.7% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations 14,704 $74,700 421 2.5% Management Occupations 11,573 $101,900 343 2.2% Business and Financial Operations Occupations 10,620 $68,100 531 3.3% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations 9,390 $42,900 588 4.4% Construction and Extraction Occupations 9,308 $39,500 1,233 8.4% Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations 8,648 $24,700 1,080 8.0% Personal Care and Service Occupations 8,297 $23,800 765 7.0% Protective Service Occupations 8,130 $44,400 410 4.2% Healthcare Support Occupations 7,444 $28,500 430 4.7% Computer and Mathematical Occupations 5,331 $81,100 308 2.6% Community and Social Service Occupations 3,919 $43,400 142 3.3% Architecture and Engineering Occupations 3,166 $76,600 156 2.9% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations 2,852 $46,800 242 6.0% Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations 1,644 $64,100 89 3.4% Legal Occupations 1,379 $87,800 43 2.3% Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations 1,261 $25,400 100 7.3% APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 9 Frederick County’s unemployment rate has continued to decrease since the last recession. Currently the rate stands close to full employment rate of 4.0%. EMPLOYMENT AND BUSINESS Value Frederick County, Virginia Virginia USA Labor Force Participation Rate and Size (civilian population 16 years and over)4 41,878 4,188,480 157,113,886 Armed Forces Labor Force4 95 115,131 1,083,691 Veterans, Age 18-644 4,694 483,075 11,977,656 Median Household Income3,4 $68,424 $63,907 $53,046 Poverty Level (of all people)4 5,547 887,595 46,663,433 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 10 Frederick County, Virginia Virginia USA Labor Force Participation Rate and Size (civilian population 16 years and over)4 67.3% 64.9% 63.8% Armed Forces Labor Force4 0.2% 1.8% 0.4% Veterans, Age 18-644 9.5% 9.5% 6.2% Median Household Income3,4 — — — Poverty Level (of all people)4 7.1% 11.3% 15.4% COMMUTING PATTERNS The Winchester-Frederick County community is the regional economic epicenter for the Northern Shenandoah Valley region. One reason for this statement is found in the area’s commuting patterns. The 2000 Census showed just over 4,000 more workers commuted into this community than out-commuted, double the amount from 1990. In 2000, the in-commuting growth (up 5,012) significantly out-paced that of out-commuters (up 2,807) by nearly a 2 to 1 margin. In addition, the Winchester-Frederick County community remains a “Place to Live and Work.” Nearly 75% (31,573 out of 42,291) of working individuals in either Winchester or Frederick County reported living and working in the Winchester-Frederick County community. Over 4,600 (17.4%) net new workers have chosen to work and live in this community since 1990. The benefits of our community having a large “live where you work” population is enormous.  Promotes linkage between employers and community  Reduces commuting costs, thus increasing a household’s disposable income  Reduces employee turnover, training, and recruitment costs  Makes our community a more attractive place for businesses to locate and expand APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 11 The out-commuting population also remains a viable labor force for some companies. In 2000, slightly more than 25% (10,718 individuals) of our community’s working population commuted. Over 89% of our community’s commuting population works either in an adjacent local area or the Northern Virginia area. Workforce studies in 2003 and 2006 yielded similar commuting patterns. Specifically, the 2006 study showed that 68.7% of Winchester-Frederick County’s working population live and work in Winchester-Frederick County, with only 12.4% working in Northern Virginia. APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 12 TAXABLE SALES The retail sector is important, though, as retail activity reflects the general health of a local economy. Retail sales also produce sales tax dollars, which support municipal service provision. In Frederick County the overall value of taxable sales grew from $413 million from to just over $1 billion in unadjusted dollars, currently. Please note, in the third quarter of calendar year 2005 the Virginia Department of Taxation began tracking quarterly taxable sales using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) business categories rather than Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) categories. Consequently, data from the two time periods are not fully compatible for purposes of comparison. Taxable sales reported on this page can be compared from 1995 through the second quarter of 2005 (the quarters using the SIC categories) or from the third quarter of 2005 through the current quarter (quarters using the NAICS categories), but comparing data from between the two periods will carry misleading results. The evolution of Frederick County’s economy once again became apparent when examining the top taxable sales categories over the past almost 20 years. In 2004, miscellaneous store retail topped all with sales over nearly $115 million. Fast forward to 2014, the top ranking changes to general merchandise stores taxable sales, which exceeded $271 million. Sector 2004 Sector 2014 Gasoline Stations 104,881,954 General Merchandise Stores 271,764,942.00 Misc Retail 115,325,402 Food and Beverage 161,493,402.00 Building Materials 64,735,846 Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods 100,667,998.00 Grocery Stores 54,407,471 Food Services and Drinking Places 82,792,777.00 Food Services and Drinking Places 59,059,004 Gasoline Stations 60,836,162.00 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 1 • LAND USE ANALYSIS APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 2 LAND USE ANALYSIS The Land Use Analysis includes the Planning Area Analysis and a review of the UDA (Urban Development Area) Report. When combined together, these two pieces of information help to provide an understanding of the current make- up of the County in terms of zoning, land use, and residential development. The Land Use Analysis also helps us to understand the future development of the County and the demands associated with the growth and development of the County. This information is useful in many ways. With regards to the 2035 update to the Comprehensive Plan, it has been used to better understand the balance of future land uses so the County can continue to strive for a balanced approach to the 25% Commercial/Industrial – 75% Other Real Estate Tax Assessment Ratio. It has also been used to comprehend the water and wastewater needs associated with the future growth of the County and to continue to provide support and information to the Frederick County Sanitation Authority. The Planning Area Analysis has been completely revised since the 2030 Comprehensive Plan to better reflect the improvements made in the County’s Area Plans in support of the 2030 Comprehensive Plan. Each Planning Area directly relates to each Area Plan contained within Appendix I of the Comprehensive Plan. Also included are those urban areas not covered in any particular Area Plan. As a result of this effort, all of the County’s Urban Areas are now included in the Planning Area Analysis. APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 3 PLANNING AREA ANALYSIS 2015 §¨¦81 §¨¦81 01277 01522 01522 City ofWinchester WARRENCOUNTY BERKELEYCOUNTY JEFFERSONCOUNTY Town ofMiddletown Town ofStephens City Legend Area Plans SWSA Urban Development Area Magisterial Districts inPlanning Areas Backcreek Gainesboro Opequon Redbud Shawnee Stonewall Planning Area Analysis 2015 - Frederick County's Urban Areas Planning Areas Residential RESIDENTIAL UNITS # UNITS Existing 18668 Planned 12968 Potential RP 2992 UDA Acreage - 17144 acresTotal SWSA Acreage - 29178 acres Gross Acreage - 54340 acres (All acreages based on Parcel calculated acreages) Main SWSA Acreage - 27516 acres Lake Frederick SWSA Acreage - 1113 acres Middletown SWSA Acreage - 549 acres Zoning ZONING TOTAL ACRES VACANTACRES B1 57 26 B2 3010 1289 B3 449 196 EM 1361 489 HE 30 9 M1 3335 1421 M2 600 234 MH1 441 67 MS 180 50 R4 1622 1494 R5 931 759 3811RP7728 33607 17850RA Land Use Business 2851 1587 Mixed-Use 61 50 MUCO 201 136 Highway C 69 23 B2 / B3 1008 644 Industrial MUIO Warehouse H Industrial E Mining Employment Commercial R REC NRR Park ERR Hist / DSA Institutional MHC 68 3 PUD 1392 1247 Urban C 2414 1507 N Village 325 216 Res, 4 u/a 6672 2717 HDR, 6 u/a 85 85 HDR, 12 u/a 916 599 Land Use TOTAL ACRES VACANTACRES Residential 1272 558 6318 3441 2455 1410 337 141 141 72 1372 485 370 342 306 35 300 134 161 101 545 475 1235 1235 2796 1745 2258 783 017 CLARKECOUNTY 0111 01522 0150 0150 0111 0111 0137 0137 §¨¦81 NORTHEAST FREDERICK SENSENY/EASTERN FREDERICK SOUTHERN FREDERICK MIDDLETOWN/LORD FAIRFAX/RELIANCE ROAD SWSA STEPHENS CITY/FREDERICK COUNTY JOINT ROUND HILL COMMUNITY ROUTE 37 WEST JAMES WOOD HS SUNNYSIDE MERRIMANS WESTSIDE WEST JUBAL EARLY HARVEST RIDGE KERNSTOWN APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 4 URBAN DEVELOPMENT AREA REPORT 2015 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 5 Vacant Land - No Approved GDPs 2,992 potential units based on permitted densities on 442 acres of vacant land Zoned Land - Approved GDPs 3,917 Units (maximum yield based on proffered densities) 1,002 Acres Master Development Planned Projects 7,332 Total residential lots/units planned 1,771 single family lots planned 1888 townhouse, duplex, multiplex lots/units planned 124 multi-family units planned 3,549 mixed units planned (Current Status) Residential Subdivisions Under Development - vacant lots 1,719 Total residential lots/units available 1,046 single family-detached lots available 652 townhouse, duplex, multiplex lots available 21 multi-family units available Grand Total:15,960 approved, planned, or potential residential lots/units. 170 Single Family-Detached permits have been issued in 2015 within the UDA 56 Townhouse/Duplex/Multiplex permits have been issued in 2015 within the UDA Notes: 476 3,631 The number of lots planned within Age-Restricted communities 2,653 Vacant lots within Age-Restricted Communities Denotes an age-restricted community or component 5,820 1,887 Revised: 9/03/2015 The number of vacant lots within the R5 zoned residential communities in the western portion of Frederick County, outside the UDA. These communities (Lake Holiday, Shawneeland, and Wild Acres) contain a total of 7,917 recorded lots. The number of vacant lots within The Shenandoah development, which is located outside the Urban Development Area on the south side of Fairfax Pike; however, the proximity of the UDA will directly impact land development decisions in the county's development area. The Shenandoah MDP calls for 593 age- restricted and 1,537 traditional residential units in a community of 2,130 total residential units on 926.26 acres. URBAN DEVELOPMENT AREA (UDA) Residentially Zoned Development Information - vacant lot summary (Through July 2015 adjustedMR ) Frederick County, Virginia Vacant single family-detached lots are within 6 of the single-family residential subdivisions which currently have approved subdivision plans within the UDA. (Abrams Pointe, Meadows Edge, Old Dominion Greens, Red Bud Run, Shenandoah and Snowden Bridge) APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 6 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 7 ACHIEVING FISCAL BALANCE THROUGH LAND USE PLANNING THE 25% COMMERCIAL/INDUSTRIAL – 75% OTHER REAL ESTATE TAX ASSESSMENT RATIO Local governments throughout the country rely on the revenue collected from real estate taxes to fund their general operation. Therefore, it is understandable that the revenue-generating potential for properties receives strong consideration during land use and development decisions. In many circumstances, a site’s ability to generate revenue, and an applicant’s capability to adequately mitigate negative fiscal impacts, are driving factors behind the development approval process. Prompted in part by fiscal concerns, local governments plan and ultimately zone large tracts of land for commercial and industrial use, to ensure that there is not only adequate land available for current demand but also for future demand. This practice of using land use policies (a.k.a. Comprehensive Plan) and the zoning ordinance to achieve fiscal objectives rather than purely land-use objectives is commonly referred to as ‘fiscal zoning’. Under the fiscal zoning approach, local governments discourage proposed developments that have the potential to create a net financial burden on the county and will instead encourage development that promises a net financial gain. Fiscal consideration is a significant element of land use planning. The county has successfully utilized the Comprehensive Policy Plan to designate areas of the county for future commercial and industrial (C/I) land use opportunities since the early 1970s. Over the years this practice has helped reserve designated land for vital tax generating land uses. Through the policies of the Comprehensive Plan areas designated for C/I land uses can be implemented through the rezoning process, which then allows the property owner to develop the site into commercial and/or industrial uses. Once the C/I use has been constructed, the county is then able to bring in additional tax revenues from the site. Through the support and encouragement of C/I uses, the county over the past decade has successfully maintained a relatively low (0.51 to 0.71 percent) real estate tax rate while continuing to provide a high quality of public services to its citizens. The Frederick County 2030 Comprehensive Plan, and now the 2035 Update, strives to incorporate a more comprehensive analysis of the C/I land uses and their contribution towards the county’s fiscal health into its overall community planning effort. The importance of the C/I land use has elevated in recent years as the country strives to overcome the challenging economic times. In an effort to plan for the county’s prosperous future, the 2035 Comprehensive Plan has been drafted to designate sufficient acreage for C/I land use opportunities that is necessary to generate tax revenue that is necessary to offset the county’s costs for providing public services to the important but more financially burdensome residential land use. APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 8 It is the county’s goal to create a policy plan that balances land uses and their associated tax contributions to ensure that those contributions offset the countywide cost of community services. This goal should be achieved by utilizing the land use plan to assist the county in achieving a real estate tax assessment ratio of 25 percent C/I to 75 percent Other land uses such as residential. Ultimately, the land use plan should be designed to plan for adequate revenue opportunities to ensure that the county is capable of providing its citizens with desired public services without having to place additional tax burdens on those citizens to fund the services. This document strives to provide additional background materials and a better understanding in support of the C/I policies and goals of Frederick County. ANALYSIS Evaluation of Costs of Community Services (COCS) by land use A Cost of Community Services study is one of the simplest forms of fiscal analysis available to local government. This study groups major land use categories together and evaluates all revenues and expenditures of the land uses throughout the county. In 2003, the American Farmland Trust (AFT), in working with the Frederick County Farm Bureau, analyzed Frederick County’s FY02 budget, its revenue and expenditures, in an effort to determine the Costs of Community Services (COCS) by land use. This study was targeted to illustrate the minimal impact that agricultural lands place on county services, but residential and commercial/industrial land uses were also analyzed. The study concentrated on fiscal year 2002 (July 2001 to June 2002), and represented a 12 month ‘snap-shot’. The American Farmland Trust study of Frederick County, VA found the following: Land Use Cost of Service per $1 Revenue Generated Residential $ 1.19 Commercial/Industrial $ 0.23 Agricultural/Open Space $ 0.33 The AFT study found that residential land uses receive $1.19 in community services for every $1 contributed in tax revenue. More importantly, this study also found that the revenue generated by C/I land uses are more than four times their projected costs for community service. While it is noted that this study was conducted a few years ago, the premise behind the analysis does capture a key aspect of the county’s typical financial situation: C/I is vital to the county’s tax base, and that in 2002, the C/I land uses contributed 18.82% of the total real estate tax revenue. APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 9 In order to project the capital fiscal impacts that would be associated with residential developments, Frederick County utilizes a Development Impact Model (DIM). This DIM is a micro-level model with the ability to analyze site specific land use data. In 201 0, as part of the annual review of the DIM, the Development Impact Model-Oversight Committee (DIM-OC) utilized the DIM to evaluate the costs for service for residential land uses. The DIM projects fiscal analysis over a 20 year period (a 20 year ‘snap -shot’), and considers full revenue contributions and expenditure demands, traditional budget elements as well as the associated Capital Improvement Plan projects. The DIM considers the various revenue sources such as real estate and property taxes, as well as sales, meals, and other potential taxes enabled within the community. The findings that were generated from the residential analysis were surprising. The DIM projected that over a 20 year period a single family residence valued at $270,000 would cost the county $1.95 for every $1 contributed. The DIM’s projections indicate a significant disparity in the relationship between residential tax contributions and its associated service expectations. 2010 Development Impact Model (DIM) projections over 20 year period $270,000 Single Family Dwelling Tax Revenue $72,881 Real Estate (direct contributions) $26,125 Personal Property, Sales, Meals, etc (indirect contributions) $46,756 County Service Expenditures $142,394 Capital (schools, public safety, library, etc) $ 21,672 Operations $120,722 These two studies reinforce the generally accepted belief that residential land uses require more services than their associated tax contributions cover, while on the other hand commercial and industrial land uses offer significant tax revenues which exceed their associated cost for community services. More importantly, these two studies show that the revenues generated by C/I land uses are essential in the county being able to mitigate the residential land use costs for community services, and provide for more opportunities and quality of life elements that make for a great community. Evaluation of County Tax Revenue and Expenditures APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 10 Utilizing figures for the county’s fiscal year ending June 30, 2010, one gains a better understanding from where funds are derived, and where those funds are then spent. Figures from 2015 were also considered in the 2035 Update. Real Estate taxes represented 38 percent of the County’s tax revenue in 2015, down from 43 percent ($41.1 million) of the county’s tax revenue in 2010. This real estate tax revenue is derived from various land uses: residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural. In 2010 C/I land uses brought in $5.6 million in real estate taxes, or 13.56 percent of the total real estate tax revenue. It should be noted that C/I uses only occupy 1.79 percent of the County’s total land area and contribute $1,229.5 per acre in real estate taxes. In addition to real estate taxes, C/I land uses are also significant contributors to personal property, local sales, meals and lodging, business license, and other local taxes. C/I land uses are vital contributors to the local tax revenue and ultimately contribute over 75 percent of the County’s total tax revenue. At the other end of the spectrum, residential land uses brought in $24.3 million in real estate taxes, or 59.2 percent of the total real estate tax Personal Property 36.7% Real Estate 38.6% Other Taxes 0.4% Local Sales & Use 9.3% Communications 1.0% Business Licenses 4.9% Meals & Lodging 3.8% Vehicle Licenses 1.9% Recordation & Wills 0.9% Utility 2.4% 2015 Tax Revenue Personal Property Real Estate Other Taxes Local Sales & Use Communications Business Licenses Meals & Lodging Vehicle Licenses Recordation & Wills Utility APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 11 revenue. Residential land uses make up 27 percent of the County’s total land area and contribute an average of $353.40 per acre in real estate taxes. In reviewing the county’s expenditures for the same period, a significant portion of the county’s funds are directed towards education ($65.3 million). At 52.1 percent of the expenditures, the county is clearly committed to educating its residents, preparing for the future, and providing for a high quality of life. In 2015, 55.9 percent of the expenditures are directed towards education, an increase over 2010. Education 55.9% Parks, Rec & Cultural 3.8% Community Development 2.0% Non-School Debt 1.3% General Govt Admin 6.5% Public Safety 21.1% Judicial Administration 1.5% Public Works 2.7%Health & Welfare 5.2% 2015 Expenditures Education Parks, Rec & Cultural Community Development Non-School Debt General Govt Admin Public Safety Judicial Administration Public Works Health & Welfare This review of the County’s 2015 tax revenues and expenditures, as it did in 2010, clearly illustrates that while residential land use contribute a majority of the real estate taxes collected by the County, the costs for covering services provided to those resident far exceeds their contributions. As depicted in the chart above, the expenditures for education (which is a service connected with residential land uses), is more than three times the contributions made from residential property. Through solid land use and financial planning, the county has maintained a stable, relatively low real estate tax rate for the past decade while continuing APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 12 to provide top notch services to its residents. Utilizing the benefits of C/I, an increase in C/I land uses would offer the county an even greater ability to provide services or cover the increasing costs of services. Recognition of C/I Contributions to the Tax Base Commercial and industrial land uses offer significant benefits to the community, in terms of tax contributions (real estate, meals, machinery, room, etc.) with minimal expectations and impacts on county services. C/I land uses also offer key employment opportunities for the residents of the county to help improve their individual quality of life and achieve their personal goals. Based on the 2010 tax revenues, C/I properties represented more than 13 percent of the total real estate property assessments in the county, but accounted for less than 2 percent of the land area within the county. While land values will certainly fluctuate with the ebb and flow of the economy, C/I values will continue to be significant contributors to the county’s tax base and more importantly, C/I tax contributions will offset the residential land use cost for services. Target: Plan for C/I to Represent 25 Percent of Real Estate Assessments In an effort to maintain the county’s ability to provide high quality services while at the same time maintaining low real estate tax rates, the 2030 Comprehensive Plan is utilizing land use planning and C/I opportunities to offset impacts from existing and planned residential uses. If it is a goal for Frederick County to have 25 percent of the total county assessments come from C/I land use values, then it is obvious that at only 13.56 percent (4,556 acres) the county needs additional developed C/I uses. To achieve the 25 percent assessment target in 2010, an additional 2,761 developed acres of C/I land uses would have been needed. Recognizing the county’s 2.9 percent annual growth rate over the past 3 decades, the 2030 Comprehensive Plan should be designed to accommodate an additional 4,859 acres of new C/I opportunities. This projection indicates that the 2030 Comprehensive Plan should contain a minimum designation of 12,176 acres for C/I land uses within the Sewer and Water Service Area (SWSA). Further fluctuations may be anticipated with additional residential growth. Since 2010, additional areas of C/I land uses have been included in the Long Range Land Use Plan, further achieving this target. 203 5 Comprehensive Plan APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 13 The 2035 Comprehensive Plan has been developed to incorporate a balance of land uses in order to achieve needed tax revenues. The Plan achieves the land use policy target of ensuring that 25 percent of the projected assessments will be in C/I land uses. This is accomplished by designating over 16,700 acres for future C/I land uses, which will occupy approximately 2/3 of the 29,000-acre Sewer and Water Service Area (SWSA). The Plan also incorporates opportunities for mixed use developments and single family residential uses at a minimum density of 4 units per acres within the designated Urban Development Area (UDA). The policy of directing residential growth into the UDA also promotes a more efficient use of land and community services, ultimately offering additional cost savings to the county. Mixed use developments also offer additional revenues to address the demands for services generated by the residential uses. Mixed-use developments – such as urban center and neighborhood villages – are planned developments that encourage and accommodate a mix of land uses. These projects include an appropriate mix of commercial, office, and residential development. They provide an efficient development pattern that can foster economic development, provide diversity in land use, and reduce the number and the length of automobile trips. These mixed uses projects are encouraged in appropriate locations in the 2030 Comprehensive Plan. CONCLUSION The land use designations contained within the 2035 Comprehensive Plan accommodate the goal of providing 25 percent C/I land uses to 75 percent Other land uses. Maintaining a healthy C/I ratio will help the county maintain its current tax rates while continuing to enhance the services provided the residents - particularity in the area of education. It is through the use of land use policies contained within the Comprehensive Plan that these goals will be supported and achieved. In an effort to reinforce a sound policy basis that balances land use planning and fiscal policies, the ratio of 25/75 between C/I and other land uses in terms of available land areas and taxable value of the land uses shall be the established benchmark. This policy shall dictate that at least 25 percent of the taxable land value (land plus improvement value) in the county should contain C/I land uses, and conversely that no more than 75 percent of the taxable land area should be for uses other than C/I land. By achieving this policy goal, the County will ensure that taxable land values equate to the projected expenditures.