HomeMy WebLinkAbout02-14 Impact Analysisi Market and Fiscal lmpacts ;Analyses
Heritage "Commons "
Frederick County, Virginia
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Prepared.for: .
Mr. 'Bruce A. Griffin. &
Mr: Matt Millstead
'Frederick County Center, LLC
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p
August, 2014
S. Patz' and Associates, Inc.
46175 Westlake Drive,'Suite 400
Potomac Falls, Virginia 20165
S. AIZ , AS -c� I'AT ES INC
:
0 L_' X L E S T,X T I `C- ON, & Ui L A N`T S■
August 26, 2014
Mr. Bruce A. Griffin
Mr. Matt Milstead
C/o Frederick' ' ounty Center/`LLI��
-140 North HatcherAventie
Purcellville, Virginia-.20132
Gentlemen:
This will-submit our, market study and. resulting fiscal impact analysis (•IA), for
the proposed mixed-use :development, on the 150+"acre Heritage ge Commons
property,
which is located along Front Royal Pike, just south of the 1;81/ U.S. Route 50 interchange,
in Frederick.. County, djacent to the eastern bcitindary line. of the City of
,ginia.an
'Winchester, Virginia. The� development is expected to be :started in early-2015 and
developed over a 15± year period, depending upon future market-•rend's.
The develcipmerilt proposal 'is summarized 'below. The: proposal is for 1,200
housing units and, 700,000± square feet of commercial space: for' office and retail uses.
The 700,000 square feet includes -the, 150,000 square foot Fiederick County-
Administration Building,,that:is.Ao be'built,on the,site.
'110usih
Square
• MarketRat76 Apartments
.1,050
• For-Sale Tbwtihomes
150
Total residential
-1,200
• Office Space,,,excluding County gidg.
450,000
• County Office Bbildifig
150,000
• Retail & Service
100,000
, f!
'Dotal` Commercial
MOW
The market analysis presented in part one of the attached report shows full
market-3support fof the °proposa - 1. Given the long development period, and-, the County's
commitment, , for the I ir ti
:hew , administration building, .there is sufficient,markot data to
..
commitment
support the proposal.
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Mi. Bruce A. Griffin
Mr. Matt Milstead
August 26, 2014
Based on, our market analysis;, we completed a FlA,for the full development.. The
table; shown below is a summary of our, FIA. It shows a. positive 'analysis of nearly $3.6t
million in net revenues over the; full development,period; with all revenues presented in
constant 2014 dollars. We-also calculated the PIA in 'three; development phases - which
show positive net tax revenues even if the entire development is not built out.
Table 25 Total On- site;and -0, f- site Net.Fiscal Benefits'for Her. itage.Commons,:•By Five -.
Year Phase afBuildout, Prederick•County, Virginia (constant $2014)
Phases -:14 5 yrs
2nd.- Yrs
3rd 5'Yrs.
Total
Apartments $125,720
$125:3;20
$125,720
$377,180
Townhouses $361,580
$18,290
$54,870
Commercial Floor - Space. $453,450•
$226,725
$2- 26,725
$906;900
Office Floor Space . 498,14
.,$87-1,74
871.74.0
$2,241 -,620
Total, Net Benefit $1,113,895
$1,242;473
,$1,224,1:83.
$3,580,570
Source: S. Patz & Associates, Inca
We used conservative °numbers in our analysis: 'We also undertook the study
with the assumption that the County office•building would" be on site. The $3.6 million
net revenue to. accrue to -the County with the office building shows the level of net new
taxes from the proposed .investment, which in turn, supports the, Heritage Commons
location. Without the County office building on site, additional: retail space will likely
included in the GDP:
The detailed market .and economic data that, support: our conclusions are
presented in the attached :report. Our methodology for the FIA calculation is fully
described. If additional data or clarification.are needed, please da not hesitate to, contact
US.
We. remain available to continue to assist you with the successful development °of
Heritage Commons, .'The :,appendix to'this report presents;our evaluation of the County's
propo..sed -Developmerit Impact Model_
Sincerely,
i
Stuart._M. Patz
President
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Introduction .....................................................................................................................................
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Heritage Commons,Development, Plan _______----'�_,,'~_.' .......... ..................
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| Office Space ` `, ='�,=—~'`----------------.`^,�'`~�=---------'�0
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Consumer —� Utility —� Taxes `---'—'------......— ... -
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r+c"^ve="` ` .--,---------.`~=.'^'—~.----------------~^',—_'
� Slirnmary ofOn-Site
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1
The following is the' market- study and Fiscal Impacts Analysis (FIA) in support
of the proposed mixed -use development of the 150.6 -acre Heritage Commons
development proposal (formerly Russell 150, LLC) located along, the - west side of Front
Royal Pike (US. Route 522), south' of the 1- 81 /U.S. Route 50 interchange and opposite
G
Airport-', Road. Thee site extends approximately 1,250 feet ;along Route 522 and has
.frontage (1,300 feet) 'pn; the east side of I 781,, at a location where a new overpass is.
planned 'that will extend East Tevis 'Street in the City of Winchester east into the
Heritage, Commons site and ultimately to an intersection with U.S. Route 522 at two.
locations.
The following,! report. is prepared in-two sections. The. first section presents the
market analysis in support of ahe: mixed -use :development proposal for ,Heritage
Commons. The market analysis demonstrates that market- "support. for the ;Heritage
Commons proposal exists and `is based on evolving market trends in a market. area that
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,consists of the City -:,of .Winchester and Frederick County. The expected development
period for this 1,50± acre property, based on the development 'proposal `'and market
trends, is approximately 15 years, from the projected start `of buil'dirig development in
2015 or 2016.
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The second sectionv of the report is the Fiscal Impacts Analysis, which shows the
net revenues projected from project build -out compared, with, increased expenses to the
County, from the proposed on -site development. Given the fact that the development
Pro pI sal', has considerable commercial space planned ,within the 40± `acres of
commercialty zoned area, or 30:0% of the total developable acreage, Heritage Commons,
will- generate, a positive FIA ;and: will provide considerable new net tax4 revenue to,
Frederick.County over' the 2015'to 2030 period and beyond.
The FIA is prepared in, three five -year development phases to; illustrate that net
revenues, will accrue t' the County, during the entire, 15+ year developmerit'period'. All
- revenue and expense data are presented in constant 2014 dollar values. The phasing of
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new development .. is based, in part; on. the.,, sponsor, -s , existing commitments for site
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development at the'; time of the start: of 'development; and. 'in part, on the evolving
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developmenttrends Within the market-area as calculated by the market analysis.
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The following^ chart summarizes the overall development plan for Heritage
Commons. 'It shows a master plan for 1,200 housing units on 75.3 acres of residential
zoned :land and 700,!000 square feet ,of commercial development, including the new
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Fredorick-County, office'building. The planned development pr' ram will be more fully
expanded upon in the followmg�analysi"s.
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The site setting map of the Heritage Commons site is shown next. The site is
adjacent to the City of Winchester along 1 -81 and located just over one mile south of the,
Route 50/17 interchange with T -81 near the Shenandoah University Campus: Number 5
on the map: shows theflocation;to the primary site entrance to Heritage Commons across
from Airport Road Number 6 is the, location of the proposed.new bridge over I -81. The-
Shenandoah, University Campus, is shown by Number 7. The site frontage ,runs north
from ,just south .of 'Buffalo Lick Ru'n (No. 8) to the small resid'enti'al subdivision along
Front Royal Avenue on the north.
Map A also shows the site's close proximity to several of the Winchester area`s,
regional highways. Tle'Winc._hester Regional Airport, Shenandoah University Campus,
historic "downtown Winchester. and Apple `Blossom Mall (Number 9) are all within close
proximity to the site. The new bridge over 1 -81., along'with the extension of East Tevis
6
Housing Uniis and
Square Footage 'of
Commercial Space
• Market R ate Apartments,
1,050
• For -Sale Townhomes
150
Total residential
1,200
• Office Space;,excluding County Bldg.
45.0;000-
a County Office Building'
1.50,000
• Retail &?Service Cornmercia]
100,000
Total Commercial
700;000
The site setting map of the Heritage Commons site is shown next. The site is
adjacent to the City of Winchester along 1 -81 and located just over one mile south of the,
Route 50/17 interchange with T -81 near the Shenandoah University Campus: Number 5
on the map: shows theflocation;to the primary site entrance to Heritage Commons across
from Airport Road Number 6 is the, location of the proposed.new bridge over I -81. The-
Shenandoah, University Campus, is shown by Number 7. The site frontage ,runs north
from ,just south .of 'Buffalo Lick Ru'n (No. 8) to the small resid'enti'al subdivision along
Front Royal Avenue on the north.
Map A also shows the site's close proximity to several of the Winchester area`s,
regional highways. Tle'Winc._hester Regional Airport, Shenandoah University Campus,
historic "downtown Winchester. and Apple `Blossom Mall (Number 9) are all within close
proximity to the site. The new bridge over 1 -81., along'with the extension of East Tevis
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`Street, "will provide direct access'fo 'the: Pleasant-Valley -Road corridor and to Jubal Early
`Drive,'both area roadways with an abundance of retail space, medical office space and
employment centers.,'
Map A Heritage Commons Site Location Map
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III _
Site Description:and Development- Proposal
Site Descrivtion
The Herifage'I. Commons site is a. slightly rolling, irregularly shaped, 150 -acre
property located 'bet�veen Interstate, 81 on the west and;Front'Royal Pike .(U.S. 522) on
the east at a'location directly across; from the entrance to Airport Road. The property is
vacant and partially covered with small trees and bushes, but the property is
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predominantly mead'owland. Part of the, Buffalo Run stream runs through the property
lion and. will be retained as opens ace and, an amen featuere. for
m an east -west direct, space amenity
the development..
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Following are photos of'the site and it's setting along U.S. Route 522. The photos
show views into the property from U.S. Route 522 West into the site and photos of the
Route 522 corridor. At.present, this is an undeveloped, section of`Front Royal Pike, but a
second :development proposal,, adjacent to Heritage Commons; called Madison. Village,,
is also being studied for new development, as described below.
View Into Site Showing'Topography and Tree Coverage
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View West From,U. "S. Route 522
Expanded. View of Site -
I View' South,From U.S. Route
View North Along U.S. Route, 522 522/Airport Road Intersection
. I
Adjacent land uses consist of residential developments and vacant land,.
Development- north , of the "site consists of the 40± unit Funkhouser single - family
subdivision, which was :developed in the mid- 1990s. East of the site, along Front Royal
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Pikes are mature single-family homes in the,Miller Heights subdivision.
La_ nd south_ of -the Heritage Commons site is largely vacant, but with. the adjacent
parcel "of 51.3 acres pllanned for a mixed -use development with a mix of towns and
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apartments, called Madison Village (see Number' 10). The 46.26 -acre Madison Village
site was rezoned recently to allow for 160 townl'omes and 480 apartment units, plus
107,000±.square feet of retail space, ,It is possible that sonfe development .at this property
will be started by late -2014 or early- 2015.
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The Heritage Commons site .is presently only accessible, via Front Royal Pike
(Route 522). Route 5221°is a regional` arterial that runs north =south from the Frederick
County line into the City of Winchester and then north somewhat circulating into West
Virginia. Relevant for the Heritage Commons proposal is its interchange with Route 50
and close proximity,to the.Route 50/17 interchange with I -81.
In front of Heritage: Commons, Route 522 is a four lane, undivided roadway that
runs in a. generally north-south direction parallel to Interstate 81. Route 522 provides
quick access to Mill w.00d Pike (U.S. Route 68), about one, mile north, which accesses
Interstate .81's Exit 31.3,!' and :;the City of`Winchester. Route 522 also provides direct access
to a150, 000± square.footWalmart located south at its intersection with'Tasker Road that
opened in':early =2012. About 300 full -time employees work;at the retailer; which includes
a full grocery store „garden;center and pharmacy:.
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F1 "U.'*";'
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VP
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3.
Heritage Commons Site Setting
Adjacent to the Walmart are two small. industrial parks: East 9 ate Industrial Park
.
and, jouan Global Center, which collectively include,, four tenants. The largest tenants in
- Division which occupies 160,300±
the industrial park are the FBI Records _n
square feet at. 170 Marcel Drive, and Home Depot'Distribution Center, which occupies
755A641, square feet o'f space at 201, Rainville Road. Tenants in these parks are' detailed
in the table; belbww.
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Developments at Eastpate Industrial Park and
Jouan Global, Center
Industrial. Park
Buildine•Size
Years
Tenant
S' ft)
Built
Eastaate Industrial Park
'195'Rainville Rd
201453
2003
Comcast Cable' Communications
201 Rainville Rd
755,855
2003
14oii e Depot Distribution Center`
(Subtotal) p
(776;308)
Jouan Global Center '
141 Marcel.Dr
70,000'
1998
SpecialMade Goods & Services
FBI Record's Management'
170 Marcel Dr
106,296--_
1997
Division
(Subtotal)
(176; *96J
Total
2389151
The next .important development area near ,Heritage, _Commons is located along
and off of Airport Road, 'immediately, east of the site. Developments along Airport -Road,
which include resideint'al, office and industrial uses, are detailed in the, paragraphs
below, i
➢ Preston Placed East of °the single- family homes that front Front Royal Pike is
Preston Place,la 236 -unit affordable apartment complex that was built in. three
phases under 'the federal LIHT.0 .program :during the,.1992 ,to 1997 period. This.
property is typically fully occupied and was recently renovated.
➢ Winchester Regional .Airport, a public use airport owned by the Winchester
Regional Air port' Authority, is located along'this- roadway. The airport covers 375
acres and has ` iie asphaltpaved runway. Approximately 45 people work at the
airport.
➢ Airport Business, Park is .located across the street from the Winchester Regional
Airport along ,Airport Road. The park consists Of a total of nine structures on
Aviation .Drive,; ,Airport• Road, Admiral Byrd .'Drive and Muskoka. Court.
Collectively, development in this park contains :724,760± square feet-of office and
industrial space; on 110± acres;, though much of this space is; flex space with office
and industrial iise.
The largest tenant in the industrial park is Kohl's, which operates a 422,660±
square foot. distribution center that opened on a 64.27 -acre parcel in 1997 and
employs° 30± people., ;M.I CAndustries, a company that manufactures machines
,that, build steel buildings, operates its International Manufacturing Facility in. a
- 1?50,000± square foot °facility, at-390 Airport Road. The company opened with too
employees and laddedan additional 139 employees in 2004.
The most recent, building to ,open in the? industrial park is a 17;340± square :foot`
structure at 170 Muskoka Court, a service 'center, operated by Averitt Express, a
provider of freigl t`transportati'on and supply chain management.
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➢ Westview Business Centre 'is 1'ocated east' of the Winchester Regional Airport
along Millwood,I Pike's intersections with Arbor Court, and Victory Lane. This
industrial park consists of'27 structures. Collectively, Westview Business :Centre.
includes, 802,3,1Q ±: square feet of space. The average .structure size in this
industrial park, is 29;720± square feet.
Several .tenants in Westview Business Centre are not industrial ;in nature such as
Valley Cycle._Ceritenand Groves Winchester Harley-Davidson, two auto dealers
that occupy over, 50,000,;square feet in the park. The largest,.structure in the park
is a 100,0001- square foot warehouse owned by Virginia Storage. , Services. Larger
tenants in the park. include:
■ Blue Ridge, Industries is a Winchester -based company that specialize in
manufacturing custom injecting molding. Blue Ridge Industries employs
601 pe,'ople:
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Annandale .Millwork and Allied Systems Corporation is� a Winchester-
based manufacturer of wall panels, hand rails. and stairs. The company
employs.100t peophe on.40,000, square foot facility..
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■ Clariant Corporation, a 30- employee chemical merchant, wholesaler,
occup es,30,000 square feet.,
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■ Wincl eester Woodworking Corporation ,. a manufacturer of custom
millwork; employs 30 people and occupies 56,920 square feet.
Probuild, a;manufacturer of wall panels, -roof _and floor trusses; employs
over 100 people :and occupies 28;320 square feet.
w. 'Creative Urethanes,, a ;manufacturer of castable and reac #ion injecting
moldiig and, stamping; employs 30 people, and occupies 30;000 square
feet.
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■ A Prolawn' Service .Corp., a 15- employee Winchester - based landscaping
company that occupies 12,150 square,feet.
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Actions Concrete Supplies; a 15 employee, material. merchant wholesaler,
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that occupies: 4 000 ➢sgtidre'feet.
Wavy Federal Credit `Union, which operates in a-109,300. ;square :foot
office structure on'Security, Drive, where t employees 900f; people.
- These, area industrial and manufacturing firms employ approximately 3;000
- people and: represent a' ready: mafket „f6r,new retail space.: at Heritage: Commons.
There are also five modest sized office buildings along Airport �Road' with a Total
of nearly 70;000 squ re ifeetF These.likely have 150± employees:.
The paragraphs fo fohow .describe. the developments north; of .Heritage
Commons along° Frorit Royal: Pike,and Millwood Pikes east of lhterstate 81•, Included ;in;
this area,,are struct- res occupied Eby Fed.Ex; Freight” and W Isom Trucking Corporation,
� amon g others. This
urea, consists primarily of hotels,. retailers; and offices. There . area.
older facilities =but, lin,, , addition to the 3,000+ employees at; the 'industrial' and office
buil'd'm s .alon Ail' p 1 p y
g g
r ort Road, another 1;500+ "em 'Io' ees are; located, :here in the
following businesses,
'Cbstco Warehb6`use Tl e Cosfc'Wstore is 1:29;2201 square feet,with 200± employee:
D.eleo Plaza is :a.162;630± square fOOf retail center with a ;52,690 +; square foot
Gabriel, Brothers; a 29.;000+ square foot Food Lion, a ,24480+ ;square foot Room
Store arid., 14;4004--
•,square,f6,ot Body Renew
:Hor'izon „Developmenf Shopping-Center h'as;a 34,1,50±. square foot.Big.Lots Store
and a 13,440 i square foof-Jo Anne.Fabrics� &Crafts.. ,
o-.
-, Restaurants in''this area includes Cracker .Barrel, IHOP, Texas Steakhouse &
Sal'oon,-HibachfGnll & 50preme Buffet, G'61den,Cora1; Blue FoXBilhards Bar�and
Grill Waffle-House;Subway and Los T6, Itecos,MeXiC'-anL Restaurant:
➢ Gas'Statibns inI t11is areawinclizde Citgo,, Exxon, Shell and BP.
Office The ewest,dffice'developments built in this area were constructed in the
Iate4980s and account, for 73;1''00+ square °feet. The offices of 'the Middle, East
'DistricCU:S 1�iArmy Corps of Engineers „has 600 ±°people employO.here:
Hotels, Eight hotels consisting of a; total of 808 rooms are located within this +area:
Four were: built Outing the 1980s, none were built iri the 1990s and four- were;
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built during the 20,00s decade. The newest of these. hotels is the 70 -room, six-
story Aloft Winchester; which opened in June,120T0.
In summar y approximately 4;500± people are employed near the Heritage
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Commons property din" the locations 'described above. The larger County employers
close to the Heritage Commons site are shown in the niap' below. The purpose of the
detailed analysis of I rea employment is for the evaluation, of one sours of demand for
' market support for the retail,space,planned for Heritage Commons.
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Several retailers �are located west of Interstate 81 along. S. Pleasant Valley Road
-and Millwood Pike,isouth of; Shenandoah University and near the Heritage Commons
site. Retailers "in: this area are shown in the aerial below.
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Names Size Anchors
A le Blossom.Corners'- r, '240,'560 Martin's, Offi "ce -Max 'K6hl's;,,Books -A- Million,
PP"
i Apple Mbssorn M411 440;600 Belk JCPenney, Sears
Delco Plaza 162,630 Gabriel Brothers, Food, Lion, Room.Store, Body Renew
Free Standing ' , K Mart-jowe s Walmart, Best Buy
Valley Marketplae 120,000
Staples. Oollar'T,ree
Winchester Commons 173,790 Target, T:J. Maxx, „PetSmart; Home'Depot; Pier'! Imports;
Wincliesfer:Sfation 167•,000' hh re Ross; Bed Bath, &eBe orid,,Michael's, OldTTav,
_. - -
�Source S.,.Patz &„ Associ tes field survey
Sfienan'd'oah University The, only university in Winchester= Frederick County °is
Shenandoah University, located. approximately 'two, miles north of the Heritage
Commons,, site: The; university currently employs 238 full -time and 189 --part time.
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employees.. or a. total of "427 , employees. Enrollment 'trends are: presented in the table,
below and, show as , Fall, 2013 enrollment of 4;003 students, of 'which 53.7 %o are:
undergraduate students, and, 46.3,%- are either graduate, or professional sttudents.
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Enrollment, dropped by 173 `in the f all,, ,2013 semester, driven :largely by a, 252- student
decl'i'ne, in undergraduate enrollment. Graduate and =professional enrollment ,grew
duringthis period.
Table:'FAHMeadwdnt Enrollment, Shenandoah University,
FAI001—F a11'.2013
Uncle "rraaduate Graduate Professional Total'
2003 • 1415, 1,030 406 2,,85 1
2004 � 1;538' , 1,041 3 040
42'1 ,
2005 1',606 968 424° 2' 9$'
2006 1 1,527 '1;175 408 3,110
2007 1 „6-58' 1;295 440 3;393
2008 1;7.20 1,371 420 3 51 °1
20091` 1';•767 1,448 434. 3 619'
2010 7;1*882 1,330 467 3 679
2011 2,290 1,301 �46 1 4,052'
2012 21;402 1,280 494 4,176
201'3 21150' 1,320 533 4,003 '
Chan el 735 290 i27. 1,152
Source:- State, Councilof,` Higher;Education,for'Virgtnia, .
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In °terms ;o£' projected :enrollment, Shenandoah University officials anticipate
enrollment to 'remain .'essentially flat until at least '2019:, The University's official
enrollment projectio .for 2019 "is 3,91,9 students,:slightf below thexurrent- number.
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Shenandoah U'
ruvers.ty currently has 840 on- campus dorm beds for
under: graduates, which; are icall full occu • ied, with the remainin non- commtin
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undergraduate and graduate students' residing in off- campu s,. non2imstttutionat
supported :housing No. exclusive .graduate housing is provided' at the University.
Seven -six � ercertt f all First Year,students mcludin transfer students have lived on-
h' P C g >'
campus iri:'recent years .,;
Shenandoah Un iversity ;has early plans to:- increase their on- campus bed count
from 840 'f o a `target &A ,300 ,beds; which woulda. allow the University to increase
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'. 'enrollment. New construction in a phased - approach is `planned to, achieve this 'goal.
= With the net gairr of beds, several, exisfing "residence halls wiU,he phased,. out while the
Hall 'Will be 115bed Parker Residence remodeled f
orfirst yeat, students and'red'uced to
:95 beds.
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p, p ' _ , , the university, the existing '840' beds could increase
Dit0, to lanned ex ars on at
to "95.0, beds by 2017, 1-;19,0' beds .by' 2022: and 1",31'0 bed's by 2027. This expar►s on plan
could 'be 'speculative;
but, will clearly be set in place, well after Heritage„ Commons is
started., ,and, ithe addition: 'of .on- campus beds will be :modest in fhe early stages of
expansiori:, Data.' - ndicafes that .Ahouf 3,400± university _students currently live off-
•campus, primarily m p'r irate apartment's with some: students living at�their jfamily home.
- � Data " indicates th'
at about' 3,400± university students currently live off - campus;
,p n`m aril m r irate a p.artmer is with some .s tuden ts living, °their family ome. Even
' p pan sion of on campus beds to 1,300 ±, there will. be at. least 3;000±
with the Tanned ex -
studbr.i ving off =camp . g ar y increases .iri enrollrineiit -. The ;presence `of'
us; not, ineludin
these students = creates a strong- marketior apartments at nearly- locations:
4
Summary: 'The above ;analysis has a three -fold purpose First and `foremost;is 'to
id entify'the: site location and „determine whether the setting is marketableF.for'the types of
land uses proposed_, The site has, excellent highway access,; proximity to employment-
centers and con inertial- facilities and no' nearby blighting land uses.. 'It: is an. ideal
location,for?studentssaiid" staff" from5henand'oah University:_
h
Y - ,
5econd;;Herita e
g C omro n i 0have 100;000± square _feet of retail space at build'
out: The; 4500' em lo; ees working' in the, ,irnmedia.te area,: ,along ,Airport Road and
p- ;4y _
Millwood `',Avenue, andf "2,500± new - employe � - space,-to _ be built on
es in office ,and- retail -
�� 'site; represent a ready �riaarket fovnew retail tenants:
l The third issue `
1
Js to establi'sl ,that, along. with the new Couri'ty office building
that competitive is planned for the; site, this location will be tom etitive for. new. :office space
n
development. The data presented above ,shows that between office apace and flex
ti P ( P
i
industrials ace, the Route 522- Air port, Road corridor, have'.an abundance of office Viand
flexespace; albeit primarily mature,space.
Heritage .Commons De�el'oprrient Plan,
n
The proposed.'Generalized Development: Plan (GDP for = Heritage Commons °is
p _ rated below. It shows four commercial land; bays with a total'of' 44t acres. 'These
j rese
are'located .on the north@ "side of; the ro er,' " Two have fronta e along: Ront Royal Pike
F P P ty'. g .
and 'two':have "fronfage 'on. the: new ;,bridge that is planned for a I 81 ;crossing; The, new
1350,000 "square foot .County Administration "Building could be ,located' ,iii Land Bay IV at
the corner'.of Freedom Plaza and. Front Royal. Drive.. `Some changes ,may be made on
landquse locations butt
lie proposed=level of de�elopmenf��is set .
The County Administration Building, is proposed to. relocate to .Heritage
Commons., The _relocation is ,riot finalized. However, our research: showed a likelihood
r fof the "relocation; and ,d jremendous economic benefit' to lie 'Count ith.`the building
y w .- .
relocation as an '`ancliof ' tenant for ,Heritage Commons. Thus;, our :analysis 'is based on
the:new County Adm-inistration,,Building`being on site. The, alternative is. an expanded
amount 4'retail "_space.
The.-residential, crea consists ,of tivo ,large -and one small, landbaysT with about 9.4
acres. These land, bays''are"desgnated "for apartmen ' tent development and townlome_
- G
,development ; <as shown�on Page 3, above.
-
The;;GDP has 1=2,35.;acres set °,aside, for open space: s, part, of an;anternal site trail
Y p
a _is stem. The o en_s P ace I area.: includes the =;aftractive Buffalo Lick Ruri Strearn Valley:,,
There are`'23 42.acres of :road network planned within the ,1507acre" property;. including
the: traffic ,circle ';that connects `Freedom J?kkza Boulevard, Warriou Drive .and Center
' Bouleyard.,
i
, 19
i 7
' '; lncorpo�ated herein by reference
- , ' { i �e �x ,4 i`, •""` 'tea '�`" �`
15 �
IV
a
y r Y
E'' 1 rJl.ms FS� �"�'�r � T � � 5/ 'X ���? dG�1 ✓ � � W
7��$ r'ia
T^ri'�:'. Z
Nj
!,'L ,.�"G,,� y i ��:
!
Thee GDP is pr1epared in a general 'format at: this time as the site requires',
rezoning with Frederick, County staff put the plan. A: more: detailed development
an will 612' ; prepared ;as the;.plaruling process progresses. However.,':at this time, 1,050'
market rate; upscale apartment units are planned and 'these will.likely be built -in several
phases of150 units per{phase.; `This, of,course, can change based. on�mar`ket'trend& but a
phased development Isjl kely.
The, to wnlomes are, to be priced at ,approximately $240,000;; .when reported :. in
i nconstant'2014 4ollars This p'i c'e,iexcludes .any "add-ons" to the base pr ee:> These l omeSL
will also be built in phases, with an expectation of 30±., home sales per', year, with the
development pace dependent on, the "expected sales pace,
{ -20
�. I
_ ._ _
-, ,; i.
k
p uMrfess- with�.County government ;staff: This building is planned .
for com agues! that do b
f,
to be built.at the ame -hme frame as the County office,bulding
'i
A
'These two buildings'will account for 220,000.squ4ro feet of.'the proposed i600,000
square foot office, space. The remaining 380,000 square "feet will be built 'over the
following 15+ years, at, 'a.likelyrate. of 25;000 square feet •per',y"ear on average, based on,
inarket-trernds,:as presented in the paragraphs which follow;.,
Heritage Commons will also. have 100,000 ± square feet of eretail space At this
time; the. Heritage Commoris�,sponsor has :verbal conimitments;for at least 30,000 square
feet,, including:
A convenience center
➢ Two restaurants:
➢ .- .Bank � -
Child da" - are,cen`ter
This "total'. is likely to ,be expanded #o at least 50;000 square` feet . by project opening.
Retail/ Commerciat space includes: a wide :range of uses for both residential ,consumers
and =area businesses,.
I
Thus, at project opening; Heritage Commons is likely'to.have';
° 150 ±"apartment units av
);O_ ailable for lease
30 ±; townhomesl6r,sale
;➢ 220;000+ square,feet,ofAfice space:built
50,000 square feet of "retail °space within, a small, center, on pad' sites or as
ground -floor space within office buildings
a
The remaining, portions. of th`e development will' be built, over time; `as.described in; the:
market- arWvsis,for eacl land-use,
East T,evis Stree�t%Freedom Plaza Bridge: 'In addition to the new County office
building oriarte; Winchester City officials and :Frederick County officials have approved
the construction' of—the East Tevs Street extension through the Gl'aize Property in
22
,h
iE
HgCmproey v , new `brdg over- and on 'to thee o
as shown in the. a 'erial jfo follow. 'The, road alignment `through the, Heritage; Commons
property is; also noted'. -1t,is;•planned that the road 'way <improvements will be started in
early_ 2015 and :be completed in;mid 2016.
The' "Glaize Property ,is, a proposed, commercial site that will likely be developed
` wi'th .new :retail space in° time. The original site proposal °for- the'Gla ze Property Was,,a
project::named,'The Shoppes,atTevis but this' s,.no' longer -active The connection of the
bridge to East Tevis Street'a`t Legge :Boulevard. provides a direct connection to the Apple
Blossom Mall area and? the adjacent retail centers, ,along', Legge; Boulevard 'and Pl`easart
Valley Road. The bridge connection at, Freedom Plaza Boulevard, through Heritage
'Commons extends to the ,primary site entrance at Front Royal Pike., Center Boulevard is
another- major arterial ihrough. Heritage Commons and 'could be, extended past the site
to, Front.Royal Pike near: _Patsy Cline Boulevard as part; of .'this project;, butthat section is
not part,of the bridge, h-ding
_ I
Thi's will be a major, roadway improvement for the 'Herita'ge Commons- site�and is
likely to be,g "reatly used:in,time due to the planned replacement of the 1 -81 bridge atExit
313' at the Route 50/522' _interchange; as the current bridge requires 'replacement: This
construction project -could take.10 °years before construction begins:,
23
a.
} f Section I MarkeYAnalyss
This section of the report is a, summary market :analysis in support. of 'the four
land, uses
proposed for:HeritageCommons,:includng apartmenf uriit:development,.for-
saletownhome a'les,,o
ff ce' space_ and; - retail space. The analysis of each land` use.,follows;
a demographic and econ" inic analysis of ".the; market ,area lof Winchester and Frederick
f'
;Demographic .Analysis'
The, Census total. population, 'count for '2010 for the: two `jurisdictions of the:
market area is ,a combi -ied 101510. The 2010 market area census' is nearly 22,000: above
4 'the 2000 count; which', is- an average net population' :growth of 2;000 'per" year. The
a 0 •ty , othe markmon et,area, p o
most of tle"growfih -over, the past 30 ±years,. p
Y.
_ ,:4 -
has been .in. ther:Coun The• most °recent (2013) population estimate for the two= county'
market area,is 108;540; or 4,000 above the `2010 census count.
_ 24
�I
{
- i
• r
1
f
i
I
The population;forecast of 118;800 by,'2018 is based on a'1'ower growth ratedit the',
maiket.area' compared, with, the 2000 decade: The; growth; dui "ing; the,.2010 to 2013 period
has been slower due to ;the, past recession and the effects of expected :'continued modest
rowth in the new home sales market This trend' is reflected in "the American
•ty y ( IS) by_;the Census; which:shows a 2012'population of 107;200 'and
Commuru Surve AC
population, &:201'0, o ulation, of 108;540;. However, jobs and employment: are now increasing and
therF -BI, iparticular , ° •i. s expected to bring in 1,200,employees to the market by `2016..
n'
White that is not,a "hard' and fast" date, many of the new employee's_ are likely, to Tr ove
to the market areaby 2018.
year protection period -,,.as ,that is likelythe,,maximum period for a 11 1. ,, used a fo . — ,
comfort leveIUh f6recastiiig. for real. estate development Thel first phase of development
At Heritage Commons •wall occur during thi's period. Thus, 1fof housing, in particular;,
current trends are used for the' post -2018 time frame:
Additionally, the' „comparison between at- place jobs and employment is;
in terms Of out-commutin '. The Higher gas •prices area deterrent for market area
workers to commutelo Nortt e "rn Vir;ginia , All` of these factors were taken. into account
for our forecast population of 118,800, by 2018..
I' ,
25'
•T rotect�ons °of Poaula'tion:and:Households by,
Table :1: Trends and P
Tenure and Income,
tieritaeeCommons, VA1Vlarket`Area 1990- 2018.(Constant 2013'Dollars).
1 -990
2000,
2010
.2018
Market•AreaPopulation
67,670
82,790
104,5'10
118;800
Wmc_hester City -
21,950
23,590
26 200
-.-
Erecter" ck County ”
45,720
59;21'0
78310
Group�Quarters',Pbpulation
1,220•
1,570'
1,940
2;1.00'
Hquse601d Population; °:
66,450
81;220
102,570
1:16,700
Persons Per Household ° If
160
2.53-
2:60
2.53
''Households „
25,550'.
32,100
39,430
,4'6;130
Percent Renters, .
32:9%
30.5% �
30.2%
R'entei Households -
8;500
9,780
11,940
1 4,160
Renters' Withm•Ineome1Catego ry•1/
41220
4;530
5,140 _
6;070'
Percent: Within Income Category' 1 P
49.6%
46:.4%
411:%,
42.9%
25'
ith a.ng',$40,006.,
Note 1/ Renter hodse7ho']& ,W -incomes excee i
Source;; 1'.90.0i 20 QQA d M0_U,&'Depabeht of C
and S.
Patz4tfd Assdeiates_lric.
Half of themaAet areas Girpup. Quarters population, consists of' students in on-
campus d6rm!k At Shena-Mciah University.
The 'other oail of the Group Quarters
pppulaibmis persons "in 'h ospi a 1 s - assisted wing facilities nd ins fifulions The growth
in Grou pl,Quarters ,sho,wn..in`.T'd-b'le I is based on the new ,dorm, rooms expected to be
bu I andbafi briiveirsity, by '2018,, The subtraction-of Group Quarters population
from. totalpop4l'atioh is `Household' Population, which _are the, hasisJor the, projection
new housing unit demand..
Household Trends. ieiids-. in 261'0j. the market area had '39z 470, hougohbU b sed �onth e
US 4
:census count. This 'totM is 7400± more, than -iii 2010. A , key point. in the; growth of
-households is that the„ average household 'size increas6d'iconsid0rably during the 2060
d6cade frofti. 2:53 `to 2—.69in 2010.,, This is the result of p"ersons, doubling. up .during the
recession
due, t osses'AM tor.-�dlar salary - "deductions .1pis �alsa the iesult. of persons not
9 job W -Y
forming their, ownhbukhold due., to the overall ec-diidm. U. The - increase in the average
.-
hous6hol,-d ;size: ineant U owth, in _2010, was Mbw.lhe level normally created by
populatio.ngrowft,
For 2018,:.a reversal, Of 4fie increase, in the average h- h Md is expected to
Ouse- _o I size
decrease to. 2.53;. 'the same, rlate , as in 20QO, At this rate, 'househol& are expected to
i'ncrease;to.46i'-130,by,201,8,,a,, net growth -ofl;r-feat,lv 6,700. households:,
Reriter . Hotiseh4dsi. In 2010- the census coUnt,shoWed that - 30.2 percent Of all.
Ad 1 , n cludeShefiandoah
-MORdt area 'households we're. �renters., That: percenta
ge wou
sfb&?nfs W t
University _,hqjive off campus. The percentage of renters in the area
declined over the -past 26+ years., k has continuously been below, the :state and= national
averages,, However, oh,'the -data to be presented; below On new apartment unit
addifioftstoIfierark et !a "r�asince201 0,�andfor-the,-pogt-2013'p6riOd,aslightiic iea e, i
h
26
= the percentage of renters isi expected•. :The' market ,Atoa is projected .td'have X6 •percent
renter households by.2018, or 14;110 renters.
Higher = Income Renter 'House'hol'ds: We used, $40;000 as the minimum
household income for renters who-;can afford the xents.at.new apartment developments:
Those rents are „approximately $950 " "to $1;000 net for a new one - bedroom unit and,;$1,100 r
to $4' 50 net for a, two -liedro - m with two full baths. At 3¢.% of income allocated to net .
rent, a. household with ;, n• income of. $4000; can afford: a net rent of approximately
$1,000 That is c-urrently,°the ,.market for new apartment units.,
The, 2010. Census' did not provide income d_ ata. The ACS data.are not;fully usable
related to household-income calculation, as they are, not consistent with past biannual
census counts. Thus;, the 2010 estimate for renters with incomes of $40,000; when
incomes,are reported iii-1013'. dollars, `is based on a calculation of `trend data from-the
1990 and'2000 census by the staff of"SPA:
i
i
Our estimates show ,that the: market area has 5,100+ renters in jhe' income
category under study in •2010 and that total is expected' to expand to 6,070 renters by
2018: The percentage of higher •mcome renters is likely to continue to decline; due to the
expected increase inlhe for- sale;home market, but -the absolute totals are expanding.
Overall, tthere :has been steady demographic ,growth in the market .area and that
} trend should corihnue , Tlie_re; has been a sizable growth, in `renters during the 2000
decade, with approximately, ;30 percent of net household growth renter households:
These data show�a continued need .for ',now r„ental'housing. Jh the paragraphss`below; the
rental household, data `and trends will be compared with.. past apartment ,unit
development acid actie2 proposals to calculate net: apartment unit, .demand over the
forecast ,period.
Owner Households A`s� of 2010, the market ;area had 15,000 +_ ownerthouselolds
with iricomes, reported,; in constant 2013 dollars, of •$75,000 and 'above. That is the
27
income: ,range identified as the target, rnarket for new home sales ih `the market area;
including the type of ,for sale ;housing proposed. ,a_ t Heritage, Commons. B.y 2018, the
'number of home owners with, incomes of $75;000 ;and above is 'expected to increase by
3;500'.
Base, Economic'Trends4- At -place jobs in.the.market area,increased in,'2010, ;2011,
2012 .and '2013, after a decline in 2009 during the recession: The 2013 data, not yet
published,, are likely to show the, market area's, at- place: jobs are at ,or above the peak
year of 2008 and are likely to continue to expand' with.an imp ing,nafion y:
al econom
This trend is also true: 'for ,eniployinent; which .differs from ;`at- place. jobs and.
I refers to the number of. ,market area resident's who are employed. Market area
employment is increasing'and,ungimployment is decreasing:.
'There are a few large4 developments m. the market area 'that, are; expected to ;generate
j net population, employment and job'growth, including:
r ➢ Navy Federal Credit Union vompl'eted construction oft a .56,OOQ square foot
Building II of its existing Fieder =ick ,County campus on Security Drive: in August,
I 2013; where 450 people' will Abe hired by 20181, Since locating to ,the County in
2006; Navy Federal has, grown, from 60 to more than 1,000 employees. Most dthe
new jobs are customer support;po "s t' ns with salaries above $40;000,..
;Dormeo :Octaspring, a mattress manufacturer, opened its 2nd. U'S., facility +at,:259
Brooke, Road` -in the Fort, Collier Industrial `Park. Twenty people are now,
ernployed' at thes38,000 square foot facility. The? plant allows. the - company, part of
London -based Studio .Moder_na Group, to- produce its foam coils in the United
5tates for. the, first time.
;Barrett, Machine, ;a metal. fabrication; company, announced in March; 2014 `that :it
would expandts Fred'erickCbuntyfacility,and lire 27new °employees..
'M,&- H Plastics,:a ,manufacturer of plastic.. bottlesi and containers, announced in
July, 2014 that twould add 45 °new jobs.
Evolve- , a'manufacturer of natural themed, play environments,,annoiunce l
i, IGlArch,, 261A that ft -would hireb46 people at its '1'5 ,'000 square foot.facility in the;
Stonewall Industrial Park. Operations in the new4actory began in May, 2013.
28
5
'Creative Urethanes manufacturer of,castable and reaction.injecting.molding'.and
stamping, announced in February, '2014 thatjt -would ;expand its Winchester
operati on,ai W6qVieW, Business Centre by addf 54 new employees.
White House .Foods, an, apple products _processing company, announced in
March,, 2014.that,it would expand in'Winchesfer by adding 31 new jobs.
T"oe's Steakhotise, opened a, new' 11;000 square• foot restaurant in Winchester in
June, 2014'w.here' t employs' abput 150 people:
Henkel= H "arris ;Co , 'a, Household furniture manufacturer, anriouilced in April;
2014 -that it would,hire`18 new,employees at its Winchester location:.
'HP Hood operates a ,375,08 0±. square foot milk. plant °at "160.Hood. Way where it.
etnploys,:over'420 people: The - company announced in;;May, 2013 'that it would:
expand' thel facility to increase ultra -high te- mperature production capacity,:
creating 75 new jobs!; The Winchester, plant first opened in 2001 with 170
employees and has 'been steadily growing since then. The 75�additional,jobs will.
-:.
bring its total employment up to 500 workers: The majority oFthese'new jobs will
be operating positions from within the .plant and will be permanent hourly
positions:
.Pactiy Corporati'on,. a manufacturer of corrugated containers, announced, 'in
November, 2013 that it .,would'hire 25 new employees.
Amherst Medical.. Office, Building. Construction on ;this, three story Class B
.office buildin ,`be an in' early =2013 and wascompleted•:in mid' =2014: `This 57;695
g gran
sq, uare: foot'building: is; fully'occupied with medical office tenants:,
McKesson Cor;p., a health care :services and 'information technology company,,
completed a new dis6ibuti6h, center in 2013 that, employs 200. People. The
company distributes medical arfd surgical jsupples to physician offices, surgery
centers; long -term car' facilities,and home care businesses
A The Shenandoah,Valley,DiscovM, L,Museum opened ihi.d new 20;000,square foot
focatromm* ,mid, 2014 at.19. W. Cork 'Street.
➢ , Chuck E. Cheeses opened ,a knew location _in, August, 2013 in Winchester where, it
employs'50 people.
The'. FBI, is currently :plannn`g on 'building a 256,430± square foot facility ;in
Frederick Courit' called tl e' ,Records Management F,acilityf. `The facility" will
consolidate FBI's ;paper, - records and also provides• storage for° National, Arcllues.
=..
and, Records Administrations`(NARA) compliant- records in an` environmentally
conditioned, fire -,protected space. The proposed facility will :include a „'record -
management:building;This facility was anticipated to 'open in'2016".and employ
' - ...': a
as many as 1,200 people, but •'the ,,timeline, has: been delayed._ `Construction could.
-The, Village at,::Orchard Ridge. Plans are ongoing-,for the second phase of The
Village at Orchard ,Ridge; a "continuing care: retirement community. .The
community is currently in pre- sales.for its Phase,Il;exparisiori, 'hichwill include:
additional' 80: indeperident :Jiving 'apartments� and 18 cottages; ,a_ 15;000 square
foot; wellness, center with an;indoor swimming pool,'the 'ex'pansion of the dining
areas and an expansion, of ;10 suites, to the, skilled: nursing; neighborhood of
Orchard Woods; Health Center., Construction on the cottages' ;began in April,
20.14, with; an ezpected''completion date of sprm"- g20T,5,,.Cohstructioiv on all other
buildings' will commence in late-2014, and should be- compl'eted- by the end ,of
2016.
Winchester 'Marketplace: 'This 50,000 ,square foot retail; center, to be located, ,at
' 1`523 S. PleasantValley'Road;.`is currently under, cor►str,uction;lfi is located across
South Pleasant Valley R'oad_froni Sheetz and beside, Kmart. The property would
include a, 3350 'squarer 'foot_ `Roy Rogers ;re'staur'ant; ,Cp' to 180'.permanenf jobs
t r. The site plan.�includes ,a 5,700 square
could be' created s'at tlie, new ;retail 'eente
foot commercial pad site, aocated. behind the existing u Lube: Two more
g. J iffy
buildings -;are included, in, the site plans:. an L- shaped ,builIding with wings
measuring 21;000 and .12;000 square feet and another building measuring 8;141
I square.feet,
i
➢° Several small d'eve'lopments are in planning within `the' `Frederick County, .
primarily in and around the industrial parks. 'These include :a planned .75,000
square foot building expansion by Greenbay sPackaging; at, 2$5 "Park Center Drive
and;:a29000 square foof warehouse expansion'at`774 Smithfield Avenue.
ln'total,, these new companies and local,expansions� will radd approximately 2,600
new full-time employment, in addition. to new construction jobs. These totals' will
increase on an annual basis.
=
There =`have. been''four major job loss announcements.An Winchester = Fredrick;
County since 2013i,that accounted, for'the; loss of 240± lobs': These are detailed.;below.
Rubbermaid announced ih�December, 2013 that-it would move'the headquarters
of its Rubbermaid 'Commercial Products, division, from Winchester to
" Huritersu_lle, N:C The.moue'will"relocate 65-jobs in=arketing f nance,,plari�ing„
and research and; development; butwill not affeaAhe 750 `employees involved in,
the factory, wa= re_housi'ng ;operations and distribution center.
30
ced o-January; 2614Ahat it, cu03. pbsitionsl as part of 'the
se4o na honal changes, lri" healih- care. In addition to :those
�yees within the system experienced ,a, rediction'in,.hours
were eliminated.
sty em's, a security, serv.'ee prodder; ,announced in IVlay.
:ice itsi Winchestei employment.base by 55 people by July;
i Apartment Market-Analysis;,
Following is a summary market analysis for new apartment: unit development in,
the market area. For this anal ysisi we studied' the market for 1'50 =200 new units for
initial project :development, at Beritage .Commons. The study is 'for a. new mod'erri
apartment complex with Ton ly one- and two - bedroom units., The forecast date for unit
delivery, is 2016/17. Curretit�rriarke-t area net re"ri& -(2014 dollars):for, new attractive units
at- an arnerutized apartment - complex are. $950 to $1,000 for a ,.one= bedroom and.'$1,100+
net:for a two - bedroom with two full'baths. `We',also assume an apartrnent<complex with
I axompetitive :mix of on -site amenities.
p - Pp y
Within these= ar "ameters;.market su or <t.is, anal .zed for renter -households with
I incomes of $40;060 „and above,, A ;$950: net rent will require .;an, income of $38,000' and
t .,
` above, based on 2014. dollars, Thus, to be somewhat conservafive,; we used ;$40,000 as'
the minimum household income for= the target.market
The market area demographic, analysis was presented in Table 1: The ;key'
demo ra licY factor under study .for, new apartment unit development is the magnitude
g p - .
and -growth of renters' with ,incomes'of $40,000 and above., Our ;analysis shows ;that, tfie
market area had., approximately 5,100 renter households with.incomes, of $40'000± :in.
2010
� at , the, ;time: of the Census,counf. By 2018, this total is expected `to increase to about`
6100,
oral growth of 900+ .renters for the :2010 to •201`8 period, or 1'60+ households. per'
year. oniave'rage,.,
31
Cqiii&6fj'vg AlWititgnt, MArk6t. The fbIldwing,tab - le shows hows a. list of existing
rental housing units, That, would 'be competitive, or,somewhat competitive, with new
units at llefitage� Comrnbn'-s, once bil ilt., While mosuffeftketp'lace
p throughout Virginia,
have had an abundance of ft&w, apartment unit develdpnent 'since the recession, thi s is
zot. tM case in the Winchester area.,
The two newem, apArtmortl volopmeftts Were bu i It ii i,2005. 2005. There .has been a
considerable nttnibior df'-,adapilyp'. reuse buildiw'op.ened: for .,Apartment units in
downtown. Winchester; but, overall,, the:'Wiiichester area apiEkrtment market., is° modest
with only a few upscale prolperfies.,
S,unimerfie'ld'arid Stuiart 14111, are the two newer and better apartment properties
in theLmarket area. In stud ing,,ihe 1inchester areaaparfment:market,only 40± percent.
'of, the units in defined apartmerit' I There are,
identified, better r6fttaf uni corrippeNes.
condos for,, rent; -a sizable number of idw- Ins for:, "refit , by professional real. estate
companies, and currently 8b±,* recitals -- in:acdAptive,xeus0 buildings, in bld.Town.
This list does not-include xentals by.individual 'owners --ye found very few
available units: on "Craig"s. List - and does not include: sin&-familyrenials;. 86nfe of the,
units! -are, rented by, university, students,, but; that, is�., a small total: Of the, Occupancy shown.
in Table 2,.
!here are, five; .key points *shown by the, data in, Table t2. in regard 'to. the
ma,gnitude,and quality,,,of the'Winchester apartment market:
1.,� 16t, a, I.haik.e.tPlAc`e with 5400+ 'renters (in 22013/14) with incomes of
$40;000 +,;,tlie total competitive A iffoiiiftt;isrrtod'6§t,rydtj;'360+j
apartment unit
-
particularly Vi'ven the ;fact that many of the a fi-n ts� listed in
1
Table 2 below the rents propose for new apdrtrifent,, unit.
Aevelqprrient,,and willnot:compete,'for�th-e,$40,000+ income'rente,T;
Z. The vacancy t deiitiffed higher rent properties;
y-ra rate zero, for the i
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3. Most of the. new apartment units being; placed oin the market at thisr time
are one - bedroom units in upper floors of renovated. Old Town buildings;
(except.for the: units recently opened at Cedar Hill asnoted below);
4. Nearly 60 percent of the apartment units that•are listed in Table 2 were
built prior to 2000; and
5 Tasker Village,. with„ 64 units, is the only market rent newer apartment
complex ,in Frederick County. Many of the other rental units in the
County are at. towns'; and condos.for rent.
Table 2 Characteristics of'Coniuetitive Apartment Complexes
and Other Higher End Rentals, Heritage Commons
Market Area;.Auaust, 2014
Date
Total
Built
Units
Apartment Completes
Summerfield
2005
64
Treetops
1995,
52
Stua&Hil l
2003
1'80
Tasker Village
2005
64
Pemberton
1998'
120
Peppertree
198749
194
(Subtotal)
(672)
Other :Rentalsa/
Lakeside Condo
Mid- 2000's
50
Tevis.St. Apartments
1997
20
Fox Court
2002/03
25
Windstone TH's
2003
75
Limestone TH's
Mid 2000.'s
20
Old Town'Rentals
2006/13
45
Saunders' Construction Rentals
NA
120
Oakcrest Realtors
NA
130
Hables Real Estate
NA
27.0
(Subtotal)
(695)
Total -.2/
1,3592/
33
Notes° 7 /'Total's`include;rentaNsthat ar"emanaged`by these
companies.
2/ Excludes the recently built Cedar'Hill:Apartments.
Source: Field And telephone survey by & Paz & Associates, Inc.
Pipeline Proposals. At this time, there are two active proposals for new
apartment unit development in the-,Market area.
1. Jubal'Square is a'140 =unit apartment proposal that has been approved by
`City officials for rezoning. Jubal Square is'expected to attract Shenandoah
`Uni'vers'ity students for �at'least 40 of the 140 planned units. This, proposal
will likely be ready for occupancy by sometime in 2016/17. The expected
start date is late -2014 or early - 2015. The proposal includes .28 three-
bedroom, units and 20 two- bedroom units with dens. The remainder are
one- and two-.bedroom units.
2. Old town. Properties. City officials have approved the addition of 120
apartment units in adaptive reuse: buildings in Old Town. These will
open for lease -up over the next year or. two.
3. Cedar-:'Hill is a 'new construction 48 7unit apartment building that was
opened in 12 -unit- phases. The first building opened in mid -2013. The
second `building was available for occupancy by the 'end of'2013,. Both of
these, Buildings are fully occupied. The last two buildings are still under
construction, _with one planned for completion. in. November, 2014 and
the lastexpected'to open in early -2015. This i&a:non- amenitized property
and likely an;aftractive property for university students given its location.
The units are two- and three - bedroom.
These pipeline proposals are summarized in °the chart to follow with an
adjustment for apartment units expected to have some units occupied by Shenandoah
University students, °These active pipeline proposals are all in the City: These data
show, if Jubal, Square is built as planned, the number of new competitive. market area
apartment units for families will be `increased by 250 units. Twenty-four of` the units at
Cedar Hill'. are -occupied and no longer pipeline.
Number of-Planned Apartment 'Units
(2013- 20.18)
Jubal square 10011
Cedar Hill '30 1/
Old Town. Properties 120
34
Total: '250 `(rounded)
Note: l% Adjusted.to exclude college
student Occupancy.
Within the County; there are. two active development'-proposals with apartment
units as plan components. One is Heritage Commons. The other. is Madison. Village,
which -is located adjacent to the south side of Heritage Commons. Madison Village-.is
planned for 640 housing units; Of which 480 units will be apartment units. It" too will
likely be. built in phases.
Conclusions: Our, demand' analysis shows market. support for 800 ±' :new'
apartment units in the market area for the 2010 to 2018 period, excluding units to be
occupied by area college students.. This projection could be conservative, given the large
number, of rental units in investor= owned, units and the- recent increase and success of
new apartment complexes. The chart on the above: page shows that 250± units are likely
to be built in the near `future; with the 48' unit Cedar Hill Apartment currently under
construction with the last two buildings and continued: addition of new units in the
downtown with 120± units planned in adaptive reuse 'buildings in Old Town
Winchester. Jubal Square' is •the only planned amenitized .apartment: property. The net
demand for new units by 2018 is 550 units.
i
I Juba] Square will be an attractive apartment property, but will have a large
percentage of large two's and. three's. In time, a large percentage of these apartment
units may be, occupied by college students. The photo below shows- the type of
apartment units to be built at Jubal Square.
Prototype.for Jubal Square
Cedar Hill' is a small, non- amenitized apartment complex with a mix of two's
and three's. These. units should be fully',occupied by mid' = 2015 :
Cedar Hill
Completed Building Building,Under Construction.
The adaptive reuse. apartment units in downtown Winchester are attractive, but
serve a small, select,segment of the- rental housing market.
1
36
Overall, the existing apartment" market inthe greater Winchester area is modest.
The pipeline units will not change - #hat: condition. 'The Winchester area has an'
abundance of� mature townhomes° for rent; due to an ,uriderserved rental apartment
market.
The sponsor of Madison Village has not yet submitted a site plan for.review by
County staff. This, may not happen until mid -Fall, at the earliest. The project engineer
.reports 'that the initial part of the, development will be. for towns, riot apartment unit
development. This is opposite the development concept for Heritage Commons.
Apartment unit .development'•.:at. Madison Village is likely to start by late-2016 at the
earliesf. The number of units to be built in the first phase is not -now known.
Thus, the likely - magnitude of new units to be `built during the 2014 -2018 period
is 250 ±, excluding units 'designated to. students 'at Shenandoah 'University-. This totat is
well' below the projected demand- of 860± units.. Under these ezpected'market trends,
sufficient demand exists, for new apartment, unit,development at Heritage Commons for
delivery during the 2016 to 2018 period.
Townhomes'
Heritage Commons will 'al'so have 150 fownhomes that will; be priced in the
$240,000, range, as an average, with upgrades to the: base price, and .reported in constant
2014 dollars.. The chart rbelow shows 'that there are five active; townho ne subdivisions in
the market area at this time-Excluded is Orchard Hill, which closed` -out- in early -2013
and Brookland, Manor; .which closed out in .:2012. The Towns at. Tasker opened in May;
2014._ The average- base sales price .for these homes is $244,000. `These prices are in the
same price range planned ior'Heritage Commons.
"Table: Active Townhome Communities,
Winchester- Frederick Countv,.August,1014
Year Approved Built
started Lots Lots
Autumn Glen 1999. 211 199
37
2014 AverageSales', _
Prices
$290,670
f
1.
Fieldstone 2004
225
69
$246;600
Snowden. Bridge 20017
104
9,0_
$222,890
Sovereign. Village, 2013
62
4.-
$244;900
Towns at Tasker- 5714
81
1 $207;000' $238,000
Total/Average;.
683
363
$244,000
Source: Frederick- County Department.
of Planning and Development
There are :only 300± lots,available at these townhouse subdivisions> at thin time.
Except for. Sovereign Village and The Towns at Tasker, the other subdivisions were
started prior to the recession and are large in terms of units planned.
Construction is ongoing on the first phase of 16 homes at The Townes at Tasker,
developed by Dan Ryari .Builders: and. located near the intersection of`Tasker Road and
Rutherford Lane between. Winchester and. Stephens City along Schramm Loop. This
community will have 81. units at built. out. The. second phase Will include 15 units, the
third will include 18 units and - the: final phase will' include 32 units.
Towns at Tasker
The two newest- townhome subdivisions are modest in terms- of the, number of
units'planhed. Clearly, fhe-affects of 1he recession are'still an issue with new home sales,
but Sovereign Village opened in 2013 and The Townes at Tasker opened in, -2014: New
towns-are likely to open in Madison Village in 2015 or 2016.
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A smaller townhome community is proposed in, Winchester City called 1570
Commerce Street. Commerce _ Street Apartments will consist of 26 three - bedroom
townhome units ranging in size between 1;800 and 2,200 square feet. The developer is
targeting households earning $60,000 per year. Occupancy could begin as soon as 2015:
Following are photos of townhomes at the other ;four active subdivisions.
Autumn Glen is not included; as it -is marketed as age- restricted housing.
The sales pace for new townhome sales in the market area was I0± in 2011; 50t
in 2012, 601 in 2013 and' ,approximately 20± to date in 2014. If current trends continue,
the 2014; total will be near or, slightly below the 2013; figure, when reported on an
annualized basis. 2012 and 2013 represent start -up years for new home sales after- the
recent recession. None ofLLthe 'four townhomes built at Sovereign Village have sold yet.
39
These data show market support- for new towns of Heritage Commons in time
and the proposed - price, range for °towns at Heritage Commons. New townhome sales
are not likely atl-leritage Commons during the first one or two phases of development.
However, there has been an increase in new home development and this is expected; to
continue.
0ffice_Sgace
Heritage Commons, is „planned for 600,000 square feet of office ;space. That total
includes the proposed 1 50,000 square foot County office building and a 70,000 square
foot building planned for development by the sponsor of Heritage Commons as new
space for businesses that need close proximity to County government offices. The
County office building will likely not. open before 2016. The sponsors planned_ building
will likely open at°the.same time. In addition to the-220,000 square feet of office space in
these two buildings, Heritage Commons will have land and approved master plan for
'380,000 square feet of'additional'space.
Excluding some of the older office buildings in the historic downtown of
Winchester, and elsewhere in the region, and the buildings occupied by City agencies,
the market area has approximafel'y 1.4 million square feet of newer office space, with
"newer defined as space built since 1988: This total also excludes the existing 65,300
i square,foot County office building.
The following paragraphs summarize the findings of our. research on the market
area office space:
Of the 1.4 ±million square feet of office space in the market area, 457,700±
square.Ifeet (33f %) is medical office space. These buildings are clustered
near the hospital on Amherst Street and along Jubal Early Drive. Both are
locations,iri,the, City of 'Winchester. The Heritage Commons site, is not
likely to be a competitive location for medical office space.
.M
➢ The only recent 'office construction is the Amherst. Medical Office
Buildiiig,,.which was completed in mid -2014 with •57,695 square) feet of
office space. The building includes 8 condo suites that have all sold as
condominium sales. Most of the suites' were sold to,medical tenants.
➢
The medical office..space isat a near 100% occupancy rate.
➢ Excluding the; large government buildings, such as •FEMA.and USACE,
the market area has 650;000± square feet of newer space: `These are
building biaildings'of mostly 10,000 to 50,000 square feet.
➢ For the 2000 to 2009 period, 12 non - medial related, general purpose office
buildings were built with a total of '280,000 square' 'fee't: For the 2000
decade, the average annual building pace for general purpose office space:
was 281000 square feet per year'. This space has a. 10± percent vacancy
i rate.
➢ The 501 =519 Jubal` Early Drive building with :39,500 square feet is the
newest non - medical office building in the market area. The building -was
started during the recession -and completed' in.2012. It was purchased by
a tenant who will occupy the majority of the building.
➢ The office, space 'market in the market area "stopped" during the post-
2008 recession period.
➢ Along- Airport Road are „several "flex” office,buildings with a mix of office
j and industrial space. 'These buildings include 120,000 square feet of
space, plus-the 110,000 square foot Navy Federal Credit Union.
i
Overall, the general !purpose. office space market' is. somewhat stagnant with only
the 39,000± square foot; building= on Jubal Early Drive built since 200.9.. The vacancy rate
is-high. However, there,are three positive issues to reemphasize:
J. .The Federal Government- is increasing its "'presence' in the area
and expanding the amount of office space thaf it. requires In 2012,
FEMA opened a 111,000 square foot building for '570'en ployees
°2. Over- half of the .general office, space in the market area is mature;
and
3., The County'. .'s mature market area flex space: represents an.
expansion market for new office space:
The Heritage Commons site is well located for office space development,
particularly. with the new County office building on site. Thus, "Heritage Commons will
41
likely be competitive for; new office space. after the new County office building is open,
At. best, Heritage Commons will likely attract 25,000 square 4ee.f of office space per year,
with expected additional County space and possibly :a large federal,-government space.
This pace of development would require 15± year for full build out of the "available"
sites for 380,000 square, feet:of office,space over and above the 220,000 committed square
feet.
Retail- Space
Heritage Commons will have approximately 100,000 square feet of
retail /commercial space. This 'will 'be primarily restaurant space, personnel service,
t
space and non - retail space such as ,banks, ,child day care center-; business service space;,
coffee shops; computer store, etc. Only half of the space is expected to be classified as
retail space for resident expenditure potential. As shown above, the sponsor already has
discussionsµ with businesses that would occupy 30,000 square .feet,- of which 20,000
square feet will compete. for expenditure potential for consumer goods. ,
At build out, Heritage. Commons will have 1,200 Homes, occupied by-households
with an average income (2014 dollars) of '$65,000. These households have >a combined
4
household income of $78 million. Households in this income category will 'spend 15
percent of their income,for: (1). food consumed away from home; (2) some food.for home
preparation; (3) miscellaneous purchases; (4) personal services; etc. 'That total is $11.7
j million, of which 20 percent ;car be "captured." by on -site retailers, if retail space is
available, or about $2.34,million.
On- S& "Residential Retail Sales Analysisat.:Build
(2014 dollars)
Number
On -Site Households
1,200
Average Household Income
'$65,000
Total Household Income
$7,800,000
Convenience Purchases (at 15 %)
$11,700,000
On -Site Ca ture'(20 %)
$2,340,000
42
There will, be 2,000: on -site; :employees at .the, -600,000 square feet of on -site office
space, if built, and 5;000: employees in area businesses: These employees will likely
spend an average of-,$10 per day for 260 work days for lunch and other local, purchases,
for a total of $18;2 million. If attractive retail stores are available on site at Heritage
Commons; 20 percent of' this expenditure potential, or $16 million can be captured by
on= siteretail stores.
These two sources of retail sales expenditure, plus a 206/o' inflow sales from other
area households, 'will generate total retail sales potential for on -site retailers of $7:13
million. At an average sales per square foot of $400, this annual sales potential will
support nearly 30,000 square feet of. retail space.
Thus, to support 100,OOQ square;feet of commercial -space on Heritage Commons,
the majority of the,spac.e needs�to be service and business . related. This could be feasible
with quality office tenants on site:
Market Study Conclusion
The projection of real estate development over a 15+ year period is speculative,
at best. 'Hbwever, there are sufficient data to provide a comfort level that full market
support- .exists .'for the Heritage Commons proposal, 'as presented, with- the following
qualifications:
43
Number
On -Site and Area Employees
7,000.
,Lunchtime Daily • Expenditure
Potential (260 days)
$10.00
Annual Lunchtime Expenditure
Potential
$18,200,000"
Heritage Commons Retail Store
Capture (at 20 %)
$3;,600,000.
These two sources of retail sales expenditure, plus a 206/o' inflow sales from other
area households, 'will generate total retail sales potential for on -site retailers of $7:13
million. At an average sales per square foot of $400, this annual sales potential will
support nearly 30,000 square feet of. retail space.
Thus, to support 100,OOQ square;feet of commercial -space on Heritage Commons,
the majority of the,spac.e needs�to be service and business . related. This could be feasible
with quality office tenants on site:
Market Study Conclusion
The projection of real estate development over a 15+ year period is speculative,
at best. 'Hbwever, there are sufficient data to provide a comfort level that full market
support- .exists .'for the Heritage Commons proposal, 'as presented, with- the following
qualifications:
43
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,Even with increased competition, ;the apar:tinent unit and townhome unit
totals of 1,200 homes are marketable within a 15 -year development period
at Heritage Commons, an average occupancy of 80 homes per year. 'The
market area population growth supports view housing unit demand, and
current: an'd'pipeline competition is ,,modest and not fully competitive for
the market.
➢ To achieve 600,000 square, feet of office space, in or beyond the 15± year
development period, 'w11 require attracting! one or more ;sizable users..
The site setting and new bridge over I -81 should .allow for .that. However,
reaching 'the :600,000 square foot total will require �a stronger marketing
effort.
To. achieveF ,100.000 square feet of retail space, given the nearby
competition, at least one sizable tenant of 15,000+ square :feet will be
required: This is likely.
We used the proposed land -use totals for the RA to follow... 'The results of the
FIA are positive, for the .ciurentdevelopmeint- plan. Of special note is that, the County
office building is-one key for project success for the commercial uses. The building will
attract other office uses to the County and represents an important project component
for the large positive economic impact that Heritage Commons will generate for
Frederick County.
I,
Section II Fiscal and Economic Imvacts. Analvsis
The fiscal and economic impacts analysis to follow is presented in two ways:
first, those impacts which, occur directly 'from activities on -site at Heritage Commons;
and; second, those impacts which :occur off -site due: to multiplier -or spin -off effects of
resident and business expenditures -in the County. The off -site impacts will be explained_
further on in this .report; - the present section deals with the, on -site impacts. The on -site
impacts include taxes generated by the development that'will'accrue to the County, such
i
as the real property and personal property taxes for the development and its residents
and businesses.,
The fiscal Impacts anal ysis'also projects the public service and facility costs to be
incurred by,Frederick County by development on -site and for off =site spin-off effects.
The results :of the fiscal impacts analysis will be to compare, the tax revenues generated
by property development with the tax- supported costs incurred by the County to.
determine; the: fiscal impacts in terms of a revenue surplus or deficit over costs. This
45
is done for both on- site"- and off -site :impacts. Total annual im. pacfs for ',the property at
buildout of the project will be projected at the. outset, to be followed by impacts by five -
year phases over the 15 -year course of development of the site. Results are given in
constant year 2014,dollars, rounded,to the nearest ten dollars..
Summary of Fiscal Impacts
This section of..the, report for Heritage Commons will detail the:'economic and
fiscal impacts of the planned Heritage Commons development as described above over
as 15. -year development; period, with the recognition that the off -site impacts may lag
somewhat behind development and on -site impacts as the market responds to changes
in demand for .goods and services; Table 3 presents a summafy,of the;fiscal impacts that
will be derived in this section of the 'report. It shows the sources of .net fiscal, benefits,
being the difference between: tax revenues generated and tax - supported costs incurred
I
by the County to serve Heritage Commons. These are annual impacts; expressed in
constant 2014 dollars, to avoid; projecfing 'inflation ,rates. 'The overall yearly impact of
Heritage Commons after buildout and full.response by the local economy would be $3;6
million in net revenue surplus for Frederick County. The paragraphs to follow present
the derivations of these figures'.
Table 3. Summary of Tax. Revenues, Tax - supported Costs, and Net Fiscal
Benefits_0n- site,and,0ff- site,. by. Developrnenf.Coinponents at
Buildoui„ Heritage Commons, Frederick County, Virginia (constant
2014
Tax
Tax - supported
Net.Fiscal
Development .Component
Revenue
Costs
Benefit
Apartments
On- siteImpacts
$1,847,790
$1,778,000
$69,790
Off -site Impacts
453 980
1.46 590
$307,39 0
Total Itnpact
$2,301,770
$1,924,590
$377,180
Townhouses
Orr- site_Impacts
$404,140
$446,770
- $42,630
Off -site Impacts
$138,590
$41,090
$97,'500
Total, Im act
$542,730
$487,860
$54,870
M.
Comwercial'Floor Space,
.
On =site fmpacts
$612,030
- $73;980
$538,050
Off- site`Impacts
$515,440.
$iJ46,500T
$368,850
Total Impact
$1, ]-27,470
$220,570
$906,900
Office Floor Space-
On-,site Impacts
$1,409,750
$554,850
$854,900
Off- sitc,,Impacts
$1,877,450
490,730
$1,386;720
Total Impact
$3,2871200
$1,045,580
$2,241,620
Total-Writage Commons
OP-site Impacts
$4,273,710
$2,853;600
$1,420 „1' 10
Off -site Impacts• -
$2,985,460
$825,000
$2,460;460.
Total Impact
$7,259,170
$3,678,600
$3,580;570
Sources: FY201.5 Adopted
Budget of Frederick
County, Virginia; U.S.
Department
of Commerce; and S. P.atz' &Associates, Inc.
47
On =site Impacts: Ta. Revertiues
The revenues `to: `be considered ,in, this report, are ,taxes" collected by Frederick,
County for General Fund. use- :: These inelude the, property taxes; utility tax, and other'
smaller faxes. Tle, parag "raplis .to follow document ,the derivation of the tax amounts for
the':.on -site devel'opmerit'at the property.
Real Property Tax For convenience, the "real ;property (or' real estate) tax is
'treated, first; for 'the resi'd'ential developthent on -site, arid; then. for,.•the non - residential
4
developinent_on -site: This,,separat on; is: done to simplify thel presentation:, Total taxes
for residential and non- residential -will `then be combined to givet total on -site taxes.
Table 4 presents the findings for the; real property tax for the iesidenti'al; units to be built
at.Heritage Commons; w.luchindude both rental apartments'tarad.'for -sale townhouses:
The; table is ,straightforwar..d: numbers of units are _multiplied by average market value.
per unit, ,and the result, is taxes at> the County fax rate of W585 _per $160 of value:
1 Market values per unit' wererconfif ed by field research on competitive: projects. The
total tax from residential; units ;; t the property would' be' a 'lmost'$917,000,at`btiild'ou't:
Table 4.' Derivafion of Real Property Tai
A Him
• Apartments Townhouses Subtotal
Cost Per Unit,
$115;000
$240,0,00
$fA630
Number of Units
1,;050
1?'S0
1,200
T,otal,Market.V;alue
$120,75.0;000
$3610:00,000
$156;750;000
Rea -J Estate Tax Per $1.00
$0:585.
$0,585
.$0 585 :.
Total Real Estate_ 'Tax
$706;390
•$210,6*
$911;611990
Tax,Per',Unit.
$673,
$1,404
$764
sources-, FY 20115 Adopted Budget for Frederick County; Virginia; and, S. Patz ,&
Assoc., Inc.
0
Market value fors the non - residential '(commercial and office) uses on site are
based on developer hard costs; plus soft costs, land costs and.site •work. The commercial
space includes both retail and services space. For ;the office space, only the taxable
amount is inefuded, which is 450;000 square feet out of the total of 600,600 square feet to
-be built on,site. The remaining 1_501000 square feet will be in:public use and will be non-
taxable'. The . methodol'ogy follows, that for the commercial uses, with. unit costs
multiplied' by number of square feet; and the resulting value multiplied by the real,
property tax ,rate. Together, the non- residential uses would produce almost $555,000 in
taxes per year.
Table 5.
Cost'Per Square.foot
Number of ,Square Feet
Total Market Value
Real:Estate"Tax Per, $100
Total Real Estate Tax
Tax Per Square Foot
z'for N
'ommercial
Office
$122.00
$.183.50
100,000
450,000
$12,200,000
- $82;5751000
$0.585
$0.585
$71,370.
$483,060
$0.71
$1:07
$172.32
550,000
$94i775.,000
$0.585'
$554,.430
$'1.01
Sources: FY 20;15 Adopied Budget for 'Frederick 'County, Virginia, and S. Patz`&
Assoc:, Inc.
The chart below summarizes real property taxes -atthe property for all residential,
and, h n- residential. uses.. The total real propertytaxes'from on- site•development equals
approzimately,$1:5;million at buildout:
Residential
Non - residential
Total
Total Market -Value $156,750,000
$94,775,000.
•$251,525,000
Real Estate Tax Per $10.0 $0.585
$0.585
$0.585
TotalRealrEstate Tax $9`1.6,990
$554,430
$1,471•,420
49
Taxes. -Both reisi-defits'dri
Personal Propej!�,,T d_busipesses are assessed personal
(pusirte ss ),propextyt#xes. For„ residents,. this is,,,a. tax ton motor vehicles; businesses
is a tax On furniture, ixtur_e _�f in ' equipm ent (FF&E).. 'To address residertiAl
personal
t d
property taxes, value, per vehicle in
the Count
y. The sequence bf,calculation to achieve this are- shown in Table 6 and
summarized as..-follows:'
The: FY 2015 . Adopted-Budget, ffirFiederick County ',e�,anallocation of $43.5
1 -,:_ i. I , giy
million'for ex et-ted h
persona property taxes;;
Based on the, percent of estate, assessments that are residential - 69 percent -
it is .estimated residential personal $30 million.
• To this base- is AdWdlhe,arrtount of Personal Property Tax� Relief; Act (PPTRA)
funding the County is expected 'to receive from the State of Virginia, at 48
perceot of residential, property taxes, or about :$,1,4",,mfllioni,-br'in g1hg the total to
$44 million...
Dividing the ',tota-I,resi(f6nf 'personal, property tax hy the tax, taI6 Produces the
total tassessed value 6f.-Vehic-lesm-in the County, $914, mi Ili oA.
o According to the statistics ,section ,of rthe current budget; 'there are. over, 31j000
-_ (occupied I _ the "Count y/I each Raving an average of
2.3" vehicles, for a County total,of almost 72,000 vehicles.
0jyij(jiTfg the ,nqmber ofvehicte's' into the lotal.,assessed'valUe of vehicles,
gives an,
average assesse&,valde'per v6hicle-6f $121-,700.
50
Table 7 applies the ,average assessed, value: per °vehicle and the personal tax :rate
;in the County to the,Triumbers of`�apartinents and 'townhousesf to be, built at Heritage
Commons. This yields zip fsprfal' property tax of $984,000 for 'the apartments and
i $167,000 for the townhouses; for, °a residential total, of over $1,1_'million. , In. the analysis;
an'occupancy rate, of.95'percent�wassumed to accou_ntefor normal vacancy and turnover.
This) is a conservative =figure;;, as actual occupancies may be highers:
51
a
s
9
Table '7: Personal Property Taxes For 'Residential.Uses� -at Heritage Commons at
Buldout Yconstant,�$201'4)
Apartments
Towinhoases
Subtotal
Number of Households @95 %-
998
143
1,,;140
Vehicle`s Per Household:
1..60
L:90
`1.64
Number of 'Vehicles
1,596
271
1,867
Value�P..er. Vehicle
$12;682
$12;682,
$l'2,682
Total Depreciated Value'
$20,240;940
$3,433,730
$23,634,670
Tax - @ "$4:86"/$'100
$9831'710
$Ik4$80
$1,150,590
Tax Per Uriit.
$937
$1,,113
$.1;009
Sources: .S. Patz & Associates, tnc
For non - "residential floor space,, an average +and total FF., &E cost-is' shown in Table
8. This, is Appikciated to an average'of 40 :percent. 'multiplying, by the tax rate yields the
projected'.b ismess property ;fax€ for, the proposed d'eu 'I pment, a total of $248;000 for the
non - residential proper,.ties.,
Table ;8'PersonaLP,roperty:'Taxes' For Non = residential Uses at Heritage
Commons, of Bu ldofit (constant $2014)'
Commercial
Office
Subtotal
Total ;Floor Space, $q. Ft;)
100,000
450,000,
550,000
FF &E%Square `Foot;
$15
$25
$2 =3
TOt LFF &E
$'1,500,000
$11;250;000.
$12;750,000'
Depreciated'fo 40516
$606,000
$4,500,000'
$5,T00;000
Tax C? $4;$76/$`J:
$29,,1'60
$21`8,700
$247 =,860
Tax PerSquare Foot
$0,29'
$0.49
$0.45
'Sources: S!. Patz &Assoc., tnc.
52
In the chart below., 'the on -site residential and non - residential, personal, property
taxes at Heritage Commons are added to give $1.4 million in annual taxes after
buildout.
Residential Non- residential Total
Total.Deprec ated-Taxable Value $23,674,670 $5,100,000 $28,774;670
'Tax -at $4.86 Per $100 $1,150,590 $247,860. $1,`3984,450
Tax.Per Unit/,Square Foot $1,009 $0.4 5:
Retail Sales 'Tax Of the 100,000 square feet of commercial space; at Heritage
Commons, it. is estimated that'80 percent will be in convenience .retail or, restaurant
space, both subject to the reiail°'sales tax. The reinainii g,20''percent.would be comprised
of .non - taxable personal and business services. This is a, "best guess estimate at this
time as the list of expected retail tenants is not yet known. However, for the fiscal
impacts analysis, it is a small tax and any changes will not greatly affect the overall net
tax revenue analysis.
With average annual store sales of $400 per square foot (an estimate that may
change. over, time depending on the; retail/ service space mix); sales receipts for'the retail
and restaurant space would' come to $32 million annually. This sales level represents an
average f or' small retailers and restaurants. There is a'wide variation ,of, sales at retail
spaces depending upon the type of store and'whether the store is a.company store or is
. individually owned. The estimate of $400 per square foot in sales comes from area retail
`brokers.and developers o£ retail space.
These are 'modest; levels of business receipts. Retail stores at Heritage Commons
will not,have an anchor'tenant;such as a big box store or supermarket, so sales may be
lower compared with larger retail centers., Taxable sales from on -site _retail stores would
yield $320;000 zft,lApercent tax rate; based on a rate of sales of $400 per,square,foot.
53
Table 4. Retail Sales Tax-for the Commercial
Space m Heritai: Cbmmons at
-Buildout (constanf.:$2014)
Amount
Commercial Floor Space
1.00;000
Percent RetaiMestaurant
0:80
Retail/Restaurant Sg..Feet
80,000
Sales Per Square Foot
$400
Total Taxable Sales
$32,000,000
Sales Tax Rater
0,01
Total Sales.Tax
$320;000
Sales,Tax Per Gross SF
$3.20
Source! Assoc., Inc.
Business License Taxes. ,Certain businesses are taxed in the County under the
Business, Professional, and Occupational License_ (BPOL) `tax. The two eases in effect
,ere. are taxes on ,retail sales -and' professional services, which include all private office
space. The commercial space is limited to retail space, and °the office space excludes
government space_ In Table 10, the respective BPOL tax rates, are applied to the taxable
receipts in commercialand private office space; yielding, a total of $716;500 in BPOL
taxes annually.-
54
Table 10. Susiness; Vrofes §ional, and.,Oceuuational '(UP'OL) .Tax at the Non=
re "sidentia l.Uses;atsIleiita%e Comirions?at•Buildout "('constant $2014)
Commercial Office Total':
Taxable Floor Space . 801000 45,009 530,0000
Receipts Per Square, Foot $400 $250
Total, Receipts $3.2,000,000 $1;12:;500;000 $144,500,00Q
Tax Rate Per! 1010 $0.20 $0.58
`BPOL- Tax $64,000 $652;500' _ $7.16,500
Tax,Per Oross' Square;Eoot, $0.64 $1.45 $1.45
Source: S. Patz &:Assoc., inc.
3 ,
1
i
i Consumer Utility Tazes�, Expenditures on, utilities: are typically taxed if Virginia
municipalities on ,at least three of the, following; utilities: electric,' gas, wateri land ..line;
celLphone, and:internet:. For-households most utility ,taxes are' approximately $100 per
month ,per utility;: for three utilitiesr this is $108` per houseliold' per year. For the
approxirriaiely 1;,000 households in :apartments, 'this comes to a -tax of- $107,730, and for
the approximately 140 households, in'townl om s:; this tax comes to $1'5;3.9.,0;: for a total in
residential, units, of $123;1201
Non = residential uatility taxes are determined by ;Backing -, residential utility taxes
out of the total Coiunty, FY- 2015'budget for utilities;of $425 million. Tlus;is done in,Table
116„ resulting .in, an estimate ,of $32 `in utility taxes per:.e "mployee per year. With ,an
estirriated.200.em :ployees.m commercial space,. the: utility; tax for that `space would„ come
tol $6;480: jSirnilarly,, with 1;5Q0 employees in private, office space, the, utility taxes; in
offices would come °to- $48,6i0; for; total non- residentialutility taxes of5$55 090.
k
55
Tableli, Utility Taxes Per,Emoloyee,
Frederick County,
Virginia:.fconstant
Amount
County Utility Taxes FY 2015
$4,250,000
Numb-&of Households
31,345
Utility Taxes Per Household
$108
Residential_ Utility Taxes
$3,385,297
Non - Residential Utility Taxes
$864,703
Employment'
26:,684
Taxes Per Employee
$32.
Sources: :FY 2015 Adopted Budget and Statistical
Section for Frederick County;. Virginia
Total residential and,non- residential utility taxes would total $178,210 annually
after buildout in coristant year 2014,dollars.
Meals 'Tax. Of the 100,000 square feet of commercial, space -at the site, up to
80,omsquare feet could be convenience retail or restaurants, the latter comprising 10,000
square approximately. Restaurants are fairly :receipts intensive, here assumed at $300
per squam foot; for sales ('receipts) of $3.0 million. Tax on x$3.0. niillion of sales at four
percentgives an amount of $120,000; as Table 12 shows.
56
4
Motor Vehicle :Licenses. The analysis for personal property tares estimated '
1,596 vehicles at the apartments, and '271 at the :fownhouses: The, license fee, is ,$25 per
vehicle, giving total fees of $39;900. at the apartments and: $6;770 at the townhouses..
Total fees;woul'd be $46;67.
Recordation Tax: •'Real estate ownership transfers are faxes at the state level at -
the ,rate, of $0.25 per $10Q of 'value: One third of this, is; returned' to the municipality; a
rate :'of $'.0833 per;'$10Q- ;Assuming that townhouse.unifs are:;re,gistered for recordation,
e' three, times in 20 `years initial recordation plus resales every 1'Q years; -arid apar:.tments
and. non- residential are :. recorded ,twice In 20 years, the following annual average
recordation taxeswould, ,accrue '(see Table 13).
57
Table 13. Annual Average Recordation Tax at Heritage Commons, at
Buildodt. (constant $2014)
Total,.20=
Annual
Taxable Value
Y.earTax.
Ave. ,Tax.
Apartments
$241,500,000
$201125,0
$1:0,060
Townhouses
$108,000;000
- 90 000
$4,500
Residential
$349,500,000
$29.1,250
$14,560
Commercial
$24,400,000
$20,330.
$1,020
Office
$165,150;000
$1374
6 880
Non- residential
$1'89,550,000
$151,960
$7,900
Total.`Recordation Tax
$539,050,000
$449,210
$22,460
Source: S. Patz & Assoc., Inc.
Summary of On -site Tax Revenues'. Table 14 summarizes the taxes by type for
residential uses at the site, and 'Table 15 presents - those, taxes for -non - residential uses.
Both tables, are for. project buildout. Residential taxes total $2.3 ,million and. non-
residential taxes total $18 million.. As Table 16 shows, the total tax revenue to accrue to
Frederick CountYat :buil'dout ;of,the site would come to $4.1 million annually, in constant
year 2014. dollars. Among the residential taxes, the major source is the apartments, as ,
they comprise many more units than do the townhouses.
58
TAI e- .14..Sumniary of TaxestR'esideiitial Uses at He- AtageiComiions,
at B'uildogf,
Fred'Bnck.County;'Ykginia
(conAanf $2014)
Apartments'
STownhouses.
rResi'dential
RealEstate Tax
$706,390
$141'0,600:
$916,990
Personal Property IT ax
$983,710
$166;880.
$1,- 150;590
Retail..Sales Tax
$0
BPOL,Tax
$0
Consumer, Utility Tax
$107;730
$15;390
.$`1.'23;120
Meals Tax. 1,
$0
$0'
$0
Motor Vehicle Lac Fee>
$39;900
$6,7701
$46,670;
Recordation'Tax
$10,060
$4,5,00
44-560
Totat-Anin ail Taxes:
$ i,847,7.9.0
$404,140
$2;25:1,930
Taxes `Per, Unit
$-1,.760
$21694
r
Sources: S Patz & Assoc., Inc..;
Commerc al�space, being much less than office3space, contr but'esa -much smaller
portion of the non iosidentiaf 'tax' ,revenue, just less.. than 25 _ percent. The °total n_ on-
residential, tax of'$2 0 m" ilfion.averages $168 per square .foot.ir[ `taxes;
i�
iqq _
v _ -
59
F
i
i
i
i
Table 15. Summary°of`Taxes Non - residential Uses at Heritage
Commons, at Buildout, Frederick County.'Virginia
(constant$2014),
Commercial
Office
Non- resid.
Real Estate Tax
$71,370
$483,060
$554,430
Personal. Property Tax
$29,160
$21,8,700
$247,860
Retail 'Sales Tax
$320;000
$6
$320,000
BPOL Tax 1
$64,000
$652,500
$716;500
Consumer Utility Tax
$6;480'
$48;610
$55,090;
Meals Tax ', .
$120,000
$0
$1,20,000
Motor Vehiele.Lic.'Fee
$0
$0
$0
Recordation Tax
1;020
$7,900
Total Annual7axes,
$612,030
$1,409,750
$2;027;780
Taxes Per Sq`Foot
$6.12
$3.13
$3.68
Sources: S Patz &Assoc;,anc.
Among all taxes from the - site, the two predominant ones are the two property
taxes, with approx, ima`tely $1.4 million in tax receipts each.for the County: This. is about
35 percent of the taxes in each case, meaning that the property taxes ;account for almost
70 percent of total taxes. The BPOL tax is third in size, at $0.7 ;million, or 17 percent of
the total. This tax derives primarily from the office space.
60
Table 16. Summary of Taxes From Residential. andNon- residential
UsesaMeritaiw Common §; at Buildout'(constant $2014)
Residential
Non- Re"sid.
Total' Amount
Real Estae Tax
$916,990
$554;430
$1,471 ;420
Personal Troperty Tax
$1,150;590
$24:7,860
$1;398,450
Retail Sales Tax
$0
$320;000
$3201000 .
BPOL Tax
$0
$716,500.
$716,,%0
Consumer Utility Tax
$123, -120
$55,090
$178,210
Meals Tax
$0
$120,000
$120,000
.Motor Vehicle Lia. Fee,
$46,670
$0,
$46;670.
Recordation Tax
$14,560
$22,460
Total Annual, Taxes.
$2,251,930
$2,021,780
$4;273,710
Sources: S. Patz & Assoc., Inc.
Costs to the County
A
The previous section derived the major tax revenues that would accrue to
Frederick County from the on -site development at Heritage Commons; as planned The
fiscal impacts analysis 'compares revenues with costs. In this case, since taxes are
i
deposited 'in 'the County`s General Fund, those revenues for the; site are compared with
the tax - supported :costs that the County= would' incur in serving the residents and
businesses at the site.! Other sources of revenue: and costs are excluded, since they
accrue to ,separate funds °in which. expenditures,generally equal revenues.
The source for the tax- supported costs the County would incur for service to. the
residences and businesses at Heritage Commons: is the County's FY 2015 Adopted
Bttdget: In the succeeding. paragraphs the budget is presented both in terms of
budgeted revenues and budgeted expenses. The tax - supported portion of the .budgeted
expenditures is derived and expressed on a per capita basis - for, population
(representing residents), employment (representing businesses), and pupils
a
(representing costs of public education. The 7per- capita costs to the County will be
'applied to `the population, employment: and pupils, at the site to determine the overall
costs to the County -from the development of the site:
Cotinty- Budget Revenues. The purpose of presenting a summary of County
revenues in the chart'below is fo show what-portion is from local taxes. This proportion
represents. the "tax burden' for, the budget, representing. the amount of the County's
local ;revenues that County residents and businesses must make up in. taxes. The chart
shows that of $129:5 million in revenue from local sources in' the FY2015 budget, fully
95.5 percent must come from local taxes.
CGeneral,Property Taxes
_$93;490;226
Other Local Taxes
$30,213,611
Subtotal Local Taxes
.$123,703;837
Local Non -tax Revenue
$5,837,265.
Total Local Revenue
$:129;541, 02-
Percent Local Taxes
95.49%
County Budget Expenditures. Table 17 summaries''FY2015 bu'd'geted General
Fund expenditures by ,major function for Frederick County and the portion that is to be
funded from local sources. (A detailed table of expenditures is presented in Appendix
Table A -1.) These data will be•applied below to determine per I capita costs of County
services and facilities that' must- be supported by local taxes based on the ratio derived
above that 95.5 percent of local' funding for the General Fund must come from local
taxes. The total Gener 'a1Fund budget for FY2015 is $142 million, of which $130 million
.must'come °from localaources. This is over. 90 percent. Other sources are.transfers' from
the State and Federal ,governments.
6)
M
Table 11. Summary of Budgeted General Fund Expenditiures.and
the Amountib come from.Local-Funds, Frederick County,
Virginia, -FY2015
General Fund Functional Areas FY2015
Expenditure! Budget Adopted
General Gov't Administration
$8,834,088
$8,037,938
Judicial.Administration
$2,273,085
$1,198,643
Public Safety:
$28,411,307
$24;551;146
Public Works
$4,172,249
$3,312,968
Health and Welfare
$6,910;546
$3,490,604
Community College
$56;000
$56,000
Parks,,,Recreatio,n & Culture,
$5,530,713
$3,227,880
Community Development
$14924,902
$1,514,744
County Oebt'Service
$2,561;645
$2,561;645
Other Departmental ez;. Schools
$1,739,136
$1°,739,136
Subtotal
$62,413,671
$44,690,704
Transfer to School Operating Fund
$65,347,740
$65,347,740
Transfer to School Debt Service.
$14;626,151
$`-14;626;15'1
Subtotal Schools
$79,97,3,891
$79,973,891
Total General Fund
$142,387;562
$129,664,595
.Source: Adopted FY2015 Annual Budget for Frederick County, Virginia
Per Capita _-County Costs. In Table '18 budgeted General Fund expenditures
{
funded from local sources for- FY2015 ate, allocated to population, employment, and
public school pupils, and. the local tax .share is calculated. 0hei hundred percent of the
General Fund transfer to the- School Fund is tax supported, meaning that General "Fund
t ax - suppoirted,.costs per pupil are $5,845 based on.recent enrollment of 13,066 pupils'in
-the ,County 'school system. - Non - school expenditures are allocated by department to the
two' other classes, of users, population and employment. For most; functional non- school
departments;, total FY2015 expenditures are allocated to the users in proportion to their
numbers, 76 percent "`population and 24 percent employment. The exceptions are health
and welfare, community, college, and 'parks, recreation and culture, which are allocated
in #heir ;entirety to population. The table shows that the per capita tax - supported cost of
63
j
i
E
services and facilities for the .population average $447 per' capita; for employees, the;
amount is $370 per capita.
Table 18: General Fund Expenditures for Population, Employment, and Public School
Pupils, Frederick'County; Virginia, FY2015
General Fund Functional Areas
Population
Employment
Local
Expenditure Budget
Share
Share
Funding
0.759154459
0.240845.541
General Gov't Administration
$6,102,036
$1,935;902
$8,037,938
Judicial Administration
$909;955
$288,688
$1,198,643
PublicSafefy
$18,638,11.2
$S, 9 13,034
$24551,146
Public Works
$2,5.15,054
$797,914
$3,312,968
Health and Welfare
$3,490,604
$0
$3,490,604
.,Community Coll'ege
$56,060
$0
$56,000
Parks, Recreation &,Culture ,
$3,227;880
$0
$3,227,880
Community Development
$1,149,925
$364,8`1'9
$1,514,744
County Debt'Service
$1,;9.44;684
$61,6;9:61
$2,56.1,645
Other.Departmental ex. Schools.
$1,320,273
$418,863
$1,739,136
Subtotal
$39,354,524
$]0,336,;180
$49,690,704
.Percent Taxes
$ f
$1
$1
Subtotal Taxes
$37,581,166
$9,,870,421
$47,451,586
Number of Persons
84,109
26,684
110,793.
Tax- expenditures ,Per'Capita
$447
$370
$428
Transfer to School Oper..Fund
$65,347,740
$0
$65;347,740
Transfer to Scho61,Debt: Sery..
$14,626;151
$0
$14;626,151
Subtotal ,Schools
$79;973,891
$0
$79,973,891
Subtotal School Taxes
$76,370,179
$0
$76,370,179
FY2015'Pupil Enrollment -
13,066
0
13,066
,School Tax -cost Per Pupil,
$5,845
$0
$5,845'
Total General'Fund Expenditures
$119,328,415
$10,336,180
$129,664,595
Source., Adopted.FY12015 Annual Budget for Frederick County, Virginia and,Statistical
Section.
On -site Costs to the County. Per capita costs for the County are multiplied by
population,, employees',and pupils at Heritage Commons to estimate the tax- supported
,
costs thatFrederick County will incur in serving the Heritage Commons development at
buildout. The following paragraphs derive the estimated costs to the County from the
-
i'
development, first population; ,next pupils, and' .finally _employment. Data in Table 19
Show the number of Households at'95` percent of" all "residential units, which it has been
shown is conservative: 'At, $447 per capita, the: apartments entail County, population .tax-
supported costs of $758;000 .annually,r in constant year 2014 dollars'. By comparison, the
townhousesentail,$172,000 in population costs.
Table, 19. General Fund Costs:for FrederickEbtinty Allocated to
Residents at Heritage Commons,( constant,$2014)
Apartments Townhouses Total
No.. of,Households 998 143 1,140
Population/Household 1.7 2.,7`. 1.83
si
Total Pop_ ulation 1,696 385 2,081
CostTer. Capita $447 $447 $447
Population Costs $757,690 $1 71,910 $929,000
Costs Per Unit $722 $1,146
Sources: FY 2011.5 Adopted;General Fund..Budget,and;Statistical
Section, Frederick.County, Virginia, and,S. Patz & Assoc.,,;
Inc.
if
School costs have 'the_' greatest, cost 'impact from the site on the County. The key
P,
to school costs is the {pil generation rate, that is,' the number of public school pupils
that. can be expected, cn average, from each housing unit. The pupil generation rate for
apartments is based on our research of the areas two better and most comparable
apartments. 'Both happen to be in Winchester; there, is only on& non- subsidized
apartment cor iplex in, the County,, and it is not of the quality that will be developed at-
the Heritii g e Commons site. There are few decent apartment comparables to evaluate
student generation rates for the study of Heritage Commons, as most area apartment`
communities: are. at lower. rents. Pepper Tree ,and oStuart. Hill are the two best examples
of comparables to Heritage Commons where data were available. Pupil jgeneration rates
for'those'two apartments are shown;in the chart below.
65
L
Apartments'`
P- Up11St
Units
Rate.
Pepper Tree
20
194
0.103,
Stuart Hill'
9
180
0.050
Total
29
374
0.078'
To be more conservative; a. pupil generation rate of 0175 pupils per apartment
unit is assumed.. For, townhouses, the rate for better properties is 0.3 pupils per unit.
.For the: townhouses, a s inilar approach had been taken; °in the .survey of existing new,
active comparable 'townhouse developments to Assess-their pupil generation rates.
There were- more comparables for the townhome market. Overall, these are 0.33 pupils
per townhouse, as.follows;(these data are from the Frederick County. School District).
Townhouses
-
Pu ils
Units
Rate
w:
Brooklarid Manor
20
6&
0.294
'Snowden Bridge
20
44
0.455
Fieldstone
8
34
0.235
Total
48
146
0.329
There is considerable discussion on the per pupil. ratio, to use for Heritage.
Commons and other like properties. The two apartment buildings shown lin the chart
a
above would "- suggest," a 0.1.t,rate of pupil per apartment unit. .Higher: rent apartment
properties. generate 'lower rates of students than lower rent. properties. We used the
ratio of 0.175 to be conservative; 'which is almost double the "rate shown in the chart.
Using this higher- rate reduces.ret tax revenue by $440,000 annually at project built -out.
We 'believe` that the 0.175 ratio ,for pupils per . apartment unit is a current and
conservative number based on our research, for this study and others.: Apartment units
at Heritage Commons .will' be; in a suburban setting Within the Winchester marketplace,
only the' more modest rent apartment properties generate a sizable number of school
children. The rate used for the apartment units at Heritage Commons is one -half the
rate .used for the'townhomes.: This is an appropriate ratio.
66
At $5,845 in General Fund _taxes per pupil using, the above� ratios, the 222 pupils
expected at. th&.on -site housing would .generate $1.3 'million in tax - supported school
costs for the County; $1:0 ':million `from the apartments and '$0.3 million for the
townhouses.
Talile.20. Costs to Support Public School Pupils at Heritage.
Commons by Housinu Type (constant, $2014)
Apartments Townhouses Total
,No;'of Households 998 143 1,140
Pupils Per H'Hold 0.175 0.330 .0.194
No. of<Pupils 175 47 222
Cost Per Pupil $5,845 $5,845 $5,845
School Costs;. '$1,020,310 $274,860 $1;295,170
Cost --Per Unit $972 $1,832 $1,079
Sources: FY 2015 Adopted_ General FundBudget,and
Statistical Section, Frederick County; 'Virginia,
Frederick County School,Distri6t, land >S. Patz &
Assoc., Inc.
The following chart summarizes the costs to the County from the residential
development proposed for -the'site:
js Apartments
Townhouses.
Population Costs' $757,690
$ 171;9.10
School Costs a . $1,020;310
$274,86 0
Total Costs $1,778;000
$446,770
Total
$929,600
$1,295,170 .
$2,224;770
Costs from. the businesses at Heritage Commons come from thei number of
employees at the establishments. Costs are relatively small from the commercial space
ince :it is; of "limited extent' at ,$74,000 annually. Costs attributed to employees. in office
space would come to:$555,000 for 1,500 employees -.
M
1
r
Table 21. CostsIoe t'o.Support Employees
'at';Herifage
Commons ('constant $2014)
.Office
Commercial
Taxable
Total
Floor Space SF 100,000
450,000
550,000
Sq. Ft./Emplbyee 500
300
'324
Employees 200
1,500
1,700
Cost Per Employee $370
$376
$370
Employment °Costs $73;980'
$554,850
$6282830
Costs Per Sq: Ft. $0.74
$1.23
$1.14
:Sources: FY 2015 Adopted General Fund Budget and
Statistical Section, Frederick County, Virginia,
and S.
Pate & - Assoc., Jnc.
a
Net Fiscal Impact: The,net fiscal impact'is the net benefit in terms of the surplus
(or deficit) of tax revenues: compared, to tax - supported costs for,.Frederick County from
Heritage Commons, as planned. At buildout Heritage Commons; would produce a total
net:surplus revenue, of $1;4 million,.as shown in Table 22. This ds-the difference between
revenue of $4.3 million and costs of $2.9 million annually. Over 98 percent of the net
benefit would come from the non - residential components of. the development because of
the high costs of public school: education. for the resident al.components.
.:
�i
Table 22.,
Source: S., Patz.& Associates Inc. .
` Off -site Impacts: Economic and Fiscal
In addition, to the revenues and costs that accrue to Frederick County from the
development "on - site," as described above, there are also off -site. impacts that occur as a
result of residents, employees and businesses expenditures throughout the County, and
as other businesses re -spend the business receipts off -site for the purchase: of ;goods ;and
services from other vendors in the County. The multipliers used in this analysis are
p
specific to Frederick County; Virginia. Consumer budgets are identified by the U.S.
'Bureau of Labor' Statistics by area and income level. There is no direct budget
information for Frederick County, and the income level for the Washington, D.C. area his
69
Apartments
Townhouses-
Residential
Toial.T,ax Revenue
$1;847,790.
$404,140
$2,251,930
Tax- supported. Costs
$1,778,000
$446;770.
$2;224,770
NetFiscal,Benefit ;
$69,790
- $42,630.
$27,160
Number of Units
1,050
150
1,200
Net;Benefit Per Unit
$66
-$284
Commercial
Office
Non- residential
Total Tax Revenue,
$612,030
$1,409;750
$2,021,780
Tax- supported Costs
$73;9$0
$554;850
$628;830
Net Fiscal Benefit ^
$538,050
$854,900
$1,392;950
Number of Sq. Feet
100,000
450;000
550;000
Net Benefit Per'S.F.
$3.46
$1.90
Residential
Non- residential
Total
Total Tax Revenue:,
$2,251,930
$2,021,7$0
$4,273,710
Tax- supported,Costs4
$2;224,,770.
$6281'830
$2,853,600
Net Fiscal Benefit ,
$27,160
$1,392,950
$1,420,110
Source: S., Patz.& Associates Inc. .
` Off -site Impacts: Economic and Fiscal
In addition, to the revenues and costs that accrue to Frederick County from the
development "on - site," as described above, there are also off -site. impacts that occur as a
result of residents, employees and businesses expenditures throughout the County, and
as other businesses re -spend the business receipts off -site for the purchase: of ;goods ;and
services from other vendors in the County. The multipliers used in this analysis are
p
specific to Frederick County; Virginia. Consumer budgets are identified by the U.S.
'Bureau of Labor' Statistics by area and income level. There is no direct budget
information for Frederick County, and the income level for the Washington, D.C. area his
69
too high to be applicable here. Instead, nati onal, data, :for a budget for household income
in the $50,000's has been chosen for the apartments; and household incomes of $90,000
for residents in;the townhouses.
About 77 percent of this income is spent, other uses being taxes, savings and
transfers; to others not living `in the household. It is assumed that; 40 percent of all
consumer and businesses ex, p enditures from the on -site development are .made outside
of Frederick- County an 60 percent are retained within the `County. Among the larger
expenditures by consumers are 19 percent 'for shelter and 27 percenf for retail trade,
including automobiles:
Consumer expenditures made off -site in the County are translated into economic
impacts in the County, `using multiplier matrices provided for the local area by the U.S.
Bureau of Economic Analysis: - These. multipliers :capture the round -by -round flows of
expenditures in the Ccunty'initiated by residents.-and businesses from on -site. There are
separate matrices for business receipts, employment and. employee earnings. The items
in the consumer budget are multiplied in turn by these expenditure- specific categories
in each matrix and, summed,to give the "ripple effect," ",spin-off," or "multiplier effect"
of circulation of ;money through the. economy. The ripple, effects, plus the original
consumer, expenditures, equal the total economic impacts of apartment residents on the
City economy.
Business Receipts
The chart below sets forth the economic dollar flows set; in motion by
expenditures, off -site by, residents and businesses at the Heritage Commons. The direct
expenditures in the County represent the expenditures by on -site; residents and
businesses off site directly., They total $170 trillion when housing units are occupied
and' busines °sos in o p, eration. The largest component would come from the 450,000
square-feet of privately= occupied office space.
70
i
This ,$170 . million .in ezpendtizres for goods. and services would. be expected to
comprise. 60 percent. in= county dollar flows,°which would creaielanothef -$221 million in
ripple effects or spin-"Off within the County. The' :ripple effect: would be two to three
times direct, expenditures. The exception is com_'"mercial,z where retail trade can be
expected to make. most of its wholesale purchases of goods and, services from sources
outside the County. Residents. of townhouses create relatively greater impacts than do
.apartment renters because of higher income of households in townhouses. Altogether,
the business impact in Frederick. County would come to $391 million. These .off=site
impacts also create tax receipts and costs! to the County as do_ on -site impacts (see
above).
Off=site lmpacts:by Land Use
- Avartments
Townhouses
Commercial
Office
Direct Expenditures
$23 ",206;000
'$6,365,006,
$28,000,000
$112;500,000 '
Indirect Spin -off Effect.
$47,651,000
$17,669;000 .
:$8,026`,000
$147,938;000
Total Business Receipts
$76,857,000
$24,034,000
$36,026,000
$260,438,000
Employment and Earnings
PreviousT analysis ;-identified ,1;700 employees that would be on -site at the
property., occupants of office'space. Another ;2- jobs would be'created off -
site by the spin -off from; the on -sife development., The :office space on -site at Heritage
Commons would have.-the,,greatestimpact, creating, over 1,300.off =site 'jobs off - sitein the.
County,.-„ 'These off -site. employment impacts would.generate $149= million in employee
earnings.in the ,County,. :This; would bean average of .about $671'000 "per. employee: This
is heavily, influenced. 6y the higher income jobs spun -off ,from. the offices ori; site:,
Off -site Fiscal;.Impacts:
The methodology used in projecting, fiscal impacts off =site „mirror those, used -to
project fiscal. impacts on -site. As before, revenues will be limited to taxes, and costs will
be those that must be tax-supported, as; based on employment. The. RIMS. II; multipliers:
71
from the Bureau of Economic Analysis break receipts, employment and ea. rnings
impacts down into 21 different sectors, and the- impact dollar amounts (business
revenues) in the, sectors form the basis for determining` taxes. Many fazes can be
calculated directly from these receipts, or from employment created off -site in the same
fashion as for on -site ,taxes. Costs to the County can likewise •be'calculated. from off -site
employment created.,
Because of their: commercial nature, the non - residential components at Heritage
Commons would be' expected to yield considerably greater off -site impacts than would
the off -site expenditures `of residents at the site. This is the case, with the non -
residential components having, a net fiscal benefit of $1.8 million annually, compared to
$0.4 million for the residential components, for a total of $2.2 million annually after
a t
buildout in constant 2014 ,dollars. Table 23 below summarizes the off -site fiscal. impacts
by type of use. Appendix Tables ,A -2, A -3, and A -4 give the .individual tax sources for
each type of use.
Table 23. Summary of Off -site Sgin -off Impacts for Heritage Commons; at
Buildout, bv:Type
of`Use 4onstant $2014)
Tax.
Tax - supported
Net Fscaf
Type•of Use
Revenue
Costs
Benefit
Apartments
'$453,980
$146,590
$307,390
Townhouses
$138,590
$41',090
$97,500
Commercial
$5.15,440
$146,590
$368,850
Office
$1,877;450
$490,73 0
$1,386,720
Total Off -site Impacts
$2;985;460
$825,000
$21160;460
Sources:, Bureau "of Economic Development and Bureau of Labor Statistics,
U.S. Department, of Commerce, Adopted FY2015 Budget for
Frederick County, Virginia, and S. Patz & Associates, Inc.
72
Summary of On- and Off -site Impacis
The overall annual impacts, both on -site and ,off -site spinoff; would be
substantial from,Heri,tage.Commoi s,for Frederick County. Total tax revenue ieach year
would be,$7.3 million, compared to costs to the County, of $3.7 million. This would leave
a net'fiseal benefit of $3.6 million annually for the County. These overall impacts are
summarized in Table�24,by' type of "use on -site at Heritage Commons. Table 3, above in
the introduction to this section, and` Appendix Table A -5 provide detail on both the. on-
site and off -site impacts from the development.
Table 24. °Summary of. Total On -site and Off-site Impactsfor.Heritage
Commons,, at Buildout, by Tyne
of Use (constant
$20141
Tax
Tax- supported
Net Fiscal
Revenue
Costs:
'Benefit
Apartments
$2;301 ;770
$1,924,590
- $377,180
Townhouses.
$542;730
$487;860
$54;870
Commercial
$41127,4,70
$220;5 „70
$906,900
Office
.$3,287,200
$1,045,580
$2,241;620
Total Off-site:lnipacts
$7;259,170
$3;678;600
$3,580;570
Sources- Bureau of Economic.Development and Bureau of Labor Statistics,
U.S. Departmentiof Commerce „Adopted. FY2015 Budget for
Frederick- County, Virginia, and S. Paiz & Associates, Inc.
Phasing of Heritage Commons
The developmentof Heritage Commons is planned for three five = year, phases, for
a buildout period of 15 years, The chart below sets forth the phasing scheme for
Heritage Commons, and the discussion following the chart addresses the net fiscal
benefit to accrue. to the,;County for each type of use for each phase.
73
Phasing By Use'
1st 51yrs.
2nd 5 Yrs
345 Yrs
'Total
Apartment Units -,
350
350
350
1,050
Townhouse Units
100
50
150
Commercial. Square Feet;
50,000
25,000
25,000
100,000
Office .Square.Feet
100,000-
17.5,000
175,000
450,000
The net fiscal benefits-, for each phase are calculated by multiplying the number of
units or square feet of development for each development component times the net
benefit per unit (for residential) or square foot (for non - residential). All of, these benefit
parameters have been derived and set forth in previous tables in this economic and fiscal
impacts section of; th'e' report; or in Appendix tables in the case iof off -site benefits., The
calculations are summarized-in Appendix Tables A -6, A -7, and" A -8.
Heritage Commons would generate- on -site net benefits of $500,000 to $900,000
during each phase of the three five -year phases in the '15 -year development program,
Only the townhouses show any on -site deficits, as has been shown previously, due to
the high cost of educating. public school students living in townhouses. These are
annual amounts, in. constant•2014 dollars. Total annual on -site benefits at the. end of the
15 --year development program would come to $1.4 million, each year. Off -site net- fiscal
benefits average about $800;000 each ;year; fora total of. '$2.2 million over the 15 -year
buildo.ut' period. It should, be, reiterated actual off- site'bene.fits may lag behind on -site
development and impacts due to give the market time to respond to. increased demand
in the County from Heritage Commons.
Total'net fiscal.benefits - on -site and off -site - would be in the $1.0 million to $1.2
million range for ;each five year development phase in. the 15 -year development_
.program:: The ,commercial space would contribute, about $900,000 in benefits over
buildout, with the officei space contributing $2.2 million. The 'total annual. net fiscal
benefit for Heritage Commons would be $3.6'million. Total on-site and off= sitemet fiscal
benefits are. summarized in Table 25 by type of - development component and five -year
.phase (see Appendix tables).
74
. c
75
APPENIX A:; Rev. ew of 0.'e�elopmerit:Impacts'Mode1
D
Following is our, brief review of, the County's proposed Deuelopinent .Impact
Model (DIM), which is a planning tool to provrde- guidarce. to County' staff and elected
officials ;,on the evaluation :of :new development proposals,and. rezor ing. There are !a.
number of, factor described ,in.,tl e 'DIM that in our.judgment, are;;incorrect or, poor
comparables and thus4'coirld generate: an incorrecttconclusion".for sorrie reviews:
It Is the purpose of `this brief analysis and evaluation 'of'the DIM to be critical,
rather, Our purpose, rs to identify issues that- may require . mo,r& review. Following 'is= a
If of report assumptrors thaf we would like to ,discuss; as County 'officials: review our
a`tt'ached FIA.for'Heritage Commons.
t -
1. The DIM `uses�,U:S: Census data to determine the average household size
in the, C)unty, and the number of`,studerits, per housing unit by` type..
While;' ,.these" � are clearly correct :data, ,. "they .often; do; not• represent
p ;able. data' for the evaluation of a new: development:, proposal,
com ar
pa "rtrcularly a :more. upscale new proposal compared with the Coiirity
average..
Using census- data: .for both'.calculations ;includes' all' housing' types,:- i:e..,
market1'rent; affordable; mature, new, etc. `For apartrnent units, the older
and lower rent,units often have an abundance; of, fhree- bedroom ,units;
which rn =turn, generates more; school child "r "en The comparison of census
data is� 'therefore•j' problematic in the "eualuatrgr► of. a' new :apartment
! ro osaI `without three - bedroom units; m particul!ar.; The pupil
P.-P.
generation ratio f.could be much lower for. these higher rent. apartment
units compared with the County'average,
2. '.If our analysis of the DIM "is correct, it. does, not include: all taxes `paid. by.
home- owners or renters. There is a wide range of. taxes; in addition °fo,
,real estate: and personal• property faxes „ that accrue fog the County from. .
County' households'. These are shown "in our FIA of Heritage Commons. `
3 M''ost important :ih the;eoMpari8on of revenues4andl expenses from County
households is -the'off -site expenditures from Households, r.e':, the.amount;
Of money' spent at focal commercial establishments. This .expenditure
creates "a ' "spin-o- ff'' or "ripple effect" of monies within za jurisdiction,.
which, generates .a ratio of 1.8. times the on -site benefits: of real'estat& and
•personnel `taxes.
77
This ratio, calculated by officials of the Federal Bureau of Economic
Analysis shows_ahat` total net.,revenues from hew, housing units is nearly
double; the on- ste.benefits of real estate and personnel taxes.
In conclusion; our analysis is intended' to state that new housing units can
generate a, net positive economic ;impact for the County; depending upon the value of
the,homeiand incomes of the.occupants: This conclusion is�nof evidenHn the.DIM.
Additionally ,-. retail- space and office space, in particular, cannot be successful
without a sizable and:, expanding population. That can only come from the addition of
new housing. The DI,M does not calculate the amount of tax revenue, from commercial
establishments that are derived from household expenditures.
o Our FIA for Heritage Commons includes the assumptions and calculations .
discussed in this Appendix. We welcome any discussion as we present our report to
County officials.
ti
78
79
Table A -1. Detailed General Fund Budget for PY2015 Showing Share of
,'Expenditures Comiug Vtoin Local Funds „Frederick County,
Y,irginia.(current dollars)
General Fund, Functional Areas_
FY2015
FY2015
.Expenditure Budget
Adopted
Local Funds
GENERAL'GOV'T ADMINISTRATION
Board.Ofrsupervisors
$248,336
$248;336
County Administrator
$702,539
$702,539
County Attorney-
$239,668
$239,668
,Human,Resources
$320,209
$320,209
Independent fluditor
$66,000'
$66,000
Commi'' 'ssioner of Revenue
$1,200,010
- $1,000,106
Reassessment
$1=93,948
$493,948
Treasurer
$1,179;735
$655;235
Finance.
$763,469
$763,469
Information technologies,
$1;191;998
$1,1'63,298
Management Information System
$523,810,
$52= 3,8110
Other
$1,935,084
$1,935,084
Electoral Board
$106;413
$106,413
.General Registrar
'162 -769
119,823
Subtotal
$8,834,088
$8,0.37;938
JUDICIAL ADMINISTRATION
Circuit Court (�
$61;300
$61,300
General._ District Court
$15;926
$15,926
Juvenile,$'Domestic.:Relations Court
$- 19;785
$19,785
Clerk.of the Circuit Court
$741,447.
$242,185
Law Library '
$1 1000
$0
CommonweAth':s;Attorney
$1,296;55.7
$833,377
Virginia Witness Program
$126,070,
.
$26,070
Subtotal
$2,273,085
$1,198,643
PUBLIC SAFETY
:Sheriff
$11,241,515
$8,426,862
Volunteer Fire Departments
$842,560
$641,560'
Ambulance and' Rescue Services
$395,200
$31;5,200
Public ,Safety Contributions
$5,467,925
$5,467,925
Juvenile�Couri Probation.
$141;780
$21,780
Inspections
$1,090;017
$399,917
Fire and Rescue
$7,871,989
.$7,983,581
Public-Safety Commission
$1,360,32'1
$1,293,321
Subtotal
$28;411,307
$24,551,146
:1
Table A--1. Detailed General Fund $udget.for FY2015`Shoyvinp Share of
,Expenditures.Coming,From Local' Funds,Yrederick County..
.Virginia (current dollars),.continued.
General Fund' Functional Areas FY2015 FY2015
Expenditure Budget Adopted Local.Funds
PUBLIC WORKS
Road;Administratipn
$28,000
$27,000
SireetLights? ..
$43000
$0
General Engineering
:$356,788
$219,788,
Refuse Collection
$1,232,983
$974,215
Refuse'Disposal
$375,000
$322,644
Litter Control
$24;384
$12,207
''Maintenance Administration
$576,750
$273,645
County Office,-Buildings
$964,638.
$964;638
Animal Shelter-.
$570,70 6
518 831
Subtotal
$4,172,249
$3,312,968
HEALTH AND WELFARE
Local Health Department
;$30,1;000
$301;000
Northwestern Community Service
$318;000
$318,000
Area Agency,on Aging
$60;000
$60,000
Property Tax Relief - Elderly
$520;000
$520,000
Social Services- Administration
$41248,461
Public Assistance
$1.,463,085
$149,990
Subtotal i'
$�6,,9 1'01546
$3,490;604
COMMUNITY COLLEGE
_$56,000
$56,000
PARKS, RECREATION & CULTURE
Parks & Recreation - .Administration
$582 -,853
$582,853
Parks Maintenance
$1,798,301;
$1,434,601
Recreation Centers
$1;643;041
$30,008
Clearb "rook Park
$346,984
$145,484
Sherando Park.
$359,534
$234,934
Regional Library
800,000
$00,000
Subtotal
$5,5.30;71 3
$3,227,880
COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT
Planning_and.Develo"pment
$1,098,754
$688;846
Economic.Development-..Authority
$544;223
$543,973
Zoning Board
$6,368
:$068
Building appeals Board'
$550
$550
N .-S.V.;Regional Commission
$43,000
$43;000
`Soil and Water Conservation
$7,000
$7:;000
Extension
$225,00 7
225 007
Subtotal
$1,,924;902
$1,514;74:4
{
F.
Table ;A -1: 'Detailed.General'Fund Bufteffor:FY2015 Showing Share of
Expenditures Coming From Local Funds, Frederick; County,
Virginia (current dollars),
continued
General`F.ud.Functional,Areas
FY2015
FY2015
Expenditure. Budget
Adopted
Local Funds
COMMUNITY *DEVELOPMENT
Planningand;Development'
$1,098,754
$688,846
Economic Developinent Authority
$544,223
$543,973
Zoning Board
$6;368.
$6,368
Building appeal's Board
$550
$550
N.S.V. Regional Commission
$43,000' -
$43,000
Soil and Water Conservation.
$7;000
$7,000
Extension
$225,007
225 007
Subtotal
$1;924,902
$1,514,744
NON. - DEPARTMENTAL
Transfer to School Operating „Fund
$65,347:,740
$65,347,740
Transfer to School Debt Serv. Fund
$14,626,151
$14,626,151
Transfer to County. Debt Service
$2,5611645';
$2,561,645
Other.Non- departmental
$1,739,136'
$1;739,136
Subtotal
i
$84,274,672,
$84,274,672
Total Generali!Fund
$1421387;562
$'129,664,595
Source: Adopted Budget for FY2015, Frederick County, Virginia
i
i
Table A 72. Summary of Annual Tax Revendis,! County Costs, and Net -
FiscalBenefitCreated Off=site'by the Residential.Units at
,Heritage Commons,.at;Buildout (constant $2014).
Apartments Townhouses
Residential.
Impacts
Lmpacts
'Impacts
Real Estate Tax $104,320
$30;650
$.134,970.
Business Property`Tax $86,670
$25;460
$11:2,130
''BPOL Tax $81,900
$22;800
$104,700
Retail. Sales Taz, $73,430
'$24;910.
'$98,340
Motel Tax $12,880
$4,370
'$17,250
Meals. Tax $65,100
$22,080
$87,180
Motor'=Vehicle.Licehses $16,840
$4,720
$21,560
Utility_ Tax $12,840
$3,60 0
16 440
Total Revenue $453,980
$138,590
$592;570
Les "s Costs - $146,59.0
- $41;090.
::$187,680
Net Fiscal Benefit_ $307,390
.$97;500
$404,890
Number Of Units $293-
$650
$337
Sources: Bureau =of Economic;Developmentand- Bureau of Labor
Statistics, U.S., Department of Commerce., Adopted FY-2014
Budg6t,for Frederick County, Virginia, and S. Patz && Associates;
Inc.
i
�f
�i
;i
83
Su
Table A =3. mmary of Annual Tax.Revenues, County
Costs, and Net
Fiscal Benefit Created Off-site by.`the Non = residential
Components at Heritage Commons;
at.Buildogi f onstant
-2014
Commercial
Office
Non- residential
Impacts
Ln acts ,
Impacts
Real Estate Tax $104,320
$349;2,40
$453,560.
Business Property Tax $86,670
$290,140
$376,810
BPOL`Tax '$11,020
$961,280
$972,300
Retail Sales TA $161,290
$21;040
5182,330
Motel Tax $4;340
$71;780
$76,120
Meals Tax. $130;530
$84,600
$215,130
Motor Vehicle Licenses $4,430
$561,380
$60;810
Utility Tax 12 840
$
$42-,990,
$55-;830
Total Revenue; . $515,440
$_1,877,450
$2,392,890
Less Costs - $146,590
- $490;730
- $637,320
Net Fiscal Benefit '$368,850
$I 1386,720'
$1,755,570
Number: ofSq. Feet $3.69
$3.08
$3'.19
Net Benefit Per S.F. $t -04;320
$349,240
$453,560
Sources: Bureau.of Economic Development
and Bureau of Labor Statistics,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Adopted FY201`4. Budget for
Frederick County, Virginia, and S.
Patz & Associates, Inc,
84
TAW A-4. Summary of:Annual Tax Revenues,-County Costs, and Net
Fiscal Benefit Created Off -site, by the:Residential and Non -.
residential Components at `Heritage Commons, at Buildout,
Frederick. County, Virginia (6nstant:$2014).
Residential
Non - residential Total
Impacts
Impacts: Impacts
Real Estate Tax
$4531-566 $5$8,530
Business Property Tax $1,12,130
$376,810 $488,940
BPOL Tax " $104700
$972;300, $1.,077;000
Retail Sales Tax $98,340
$182,330 $280,670
Motel Tax $17,250
$761120. $93,370
Meals Tax $87,180
$2151130 $302,310
Motor Vehicle Licenses $21,560
$60;8'10 $82,370.
Utility Tax $16,440
$55,830 $72,270 .
Total Revenue $592,570
$2;392;890 $2,985;460
Less Costs - $187,680
- $637,320 - $825,000
Net Fiscal Benefit $404,890
$1,755,570 $2,160,460
Sources: B'ureau4of Economic Development and Bureau of Labor Statistics,
U.S. Department of'Commefce, Adopted FY2014 Budget for'
Frederick County; Virginia, and S. Patz & Associates, Inc:
i
Table A -5.
:e
F
Apartments
Townhouses
Residential
Total Tax, Revenue
$2;301 -;770
$542,730.
$2,844,500
Tax- supported Costs
41;924,590
-$487,860
-$2,412,450
Net - Fiscal Benefit
$377,180
$54,870
$432;050
Units
1,050
150
1,200
Net Benefit Per Unit
$359
$366
Commercial
Office
Non- residential
Total Tax Revenue
$1,127,470
$3,287,200
$4,414,670
Tax- support ed Costs
- 220 570
- $1,045,580
- $1,266,150
Net Fiscal.Benefit
$906,;000
$2,241,,620'
$3,148,520
Square Feet
100,000.
450,000
550,000
Net Benefit Per, SF.
$9:07
$4.98 .
Residential
Non - residential
Total
Total Tax Revenue
$2,844;500
$4;4.14,670
$7,259,170
Tax- supported Costs
42;412;450
- $1;266,150
- $3,678,600
Net Fiscal Benefit•
$432,050
$3,148,520
$3,580,570
Sources: Bureau of EconomicDevelopment and Bureau of' Labor Statistics, U.S.
Department of Commerce, Adopted FY2014.Budgeffor'Frederick.
County, Virginia, and S. Patz & Associates, Inc.
:e
Table A =6. Summary of'On -site Net Fiscal Benefits for'Each,Development,Component
for.'Each Phase of the: Development Program,'Heritage Commons at
'Buildoui, Frederick County, Vi rginia;(eonstaht $2014)
Phases
1"st 5 yrs
2nd 5 Yrs
3`d 5 Yrs
Total
Number of.ApartmentXnits
350
350
350
1;050
Net Benefit at'$548/Unit
$23,260
$23,260
$23,260
.$69,790
Number of Townhouse Units
100
50
150
Net Benefit at -$'165 %Unit.
= $28,420
- $14,210
= $42,630
Number of Commercial Sq.,Ft.
50,000
'25,000
25;000
100,000
Net Benefit at $5.38/SF
$269,030
$134,500
$134,500
$538,050`
Number of Office Square Feet
100;000
175,000
1,75,000,
450,000
Net Benefit at $2.1'5 /,SF
$489,980
$3325460
$332;460
$854,900
Total Net On- site,Benefit
$4531850
$476,020
$490,230
$1,420,110
Source: S. Patz & Associates, Inc,
w _
:l
4
4
Table A -7. Summar�.of Off -site
for Each Phase -of. the
Buildout, Frederick
Net Fiscal.Benefits16r
Development
County, Vir>:inia
Each
Program,
(constant
Development
Heritage Commons
$2014)
Component
at
Phases'
1st 5 vrs
2nd 5 Yrs
3r&5 Yrs,
Total..
Number of Apartment Units
350
350
3580
1,050
Net Benefit at $320/Unii�
$102,460
$102,460
$`102;460
$307;390
Number of Town'house'Un`its
100
50
$36,580
150
'Net Benefit at$664/Unii
$65,000
$32,500
$453,450
$97,500 .
Number of Commercial Sq. Ft.
Net, Benefit at $5;19 /SF
'50,000
$184,425
25,000
$92,213
25,000
$92,213
100,000
$3681850
Number of Office 'Square Feet
1.00,000
175,000
175,000
450,000
Net Benefit at $3.31 /SF
$308,160
$539,280
$539,280
$1,386,720
Total Off -site Benefit
$660,050
$76,6;45,0
$733,950
$2,160,460
Source: S. Patz & Associates, Inc.
Source: S. Patz &:Associates, lnc.
Table A -8.
Total On' -site and Off -site Net- Fscal:Benefiis by' Phase, Heritage
Commons at Buildout (con stant$2014)
4st'5 vrs
2nd 5 Yrs
3rd.5 Yrs
Total
Apartments
$125,720
$'125,720
$125,720
$377,180
Townhouses
$36,580
$18,290
$54,870
Commercial
$453,450
$226,730
$226,730
$906,900
Office:
$498,140
$871,740
$871,740
$2,241 ,620
Total`NetBenefit-
$1,113,900
$1,242;470
$1,224,180
$3,5801570
0
Source: S. Patz &:Associates, lnc.