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TC 03-25-19 Meeting AgendaCOUNTY of FREDERICK Department of Planning and Development 540/ 665-5651 Fax: 540/ 665-6395 107 North Kent Street, Suite 202 • Winchester, Virginia 22601-5000 TO: Frederick County Transportation Committee FROM: John A. Bishop, AICP, Assistant Director - Transportation RE: March 25, 2019 Transportation Committee Meeting DATE: March 19, 2019 The Frederick County Transportation Committee will be meeting at 8:30 a.m. on Monday, March 25, 2019 in the first-floor conference room of the Frederick County Administration Building, 107 North Kent Street, Winchester, Virginia. AGENDA 1. Route 11 Access Break - Kernstown 2. Old Charlestown Road Intersection with Route 11 – Citizen Concerns 3. Northern Y – Revenue Sharing 4. SmartScale Update and Breakdown 5. County Project Updates 6. Upcoming Agenda Items 7. Other Please contact our Department if you are unable to attend this meeting. Attachments JAB/pd MEMORANDUM Item 1: Route 11 Access Break - Kernstown Topic Synopsis Mr. Michael Coughlin, representing Winchester-81 LLC has requested to present to the Transportation Committee his client’s desire for a limited access break in the Kernstown area of Winchester across from the Route 37/Route 11 exit ramps. He will be requesting that the Committee recommend to the Board of Supervisors that they adopt a resolution supporting providing full access into the property. In your agenda packet, Staff has provided the traffic analysis provided by the Applicant as well as Mr. Coughlin’s letter noting why his client will not be moving forward with the revenue sharing project with the County that was previously agreed upon and Mr. Coughlin’s email request for this meeting. Analysis On October 11, 2017 the Board of Supervisors adopted a resolution for an access break at the location noted above. The resolution followed coordination and study between the Applicant and VDOT and required the specific improvements that resulted from that coordination. Following that resolution’s adoption, the County also successfully applied for revenue sharing funds to assist with the cost of the Route 11 improvements that were required. After that action was taken, additional cost estimation work was done by VDOT that indicated previous cost estimates prepared by the Applicant would not successfully fund the project as scoped. Eventually these issues led to an impasse between VDOT and the Applicant and the Staunton District Staff was not in a position to forward the limited access request. Since that time, the Applicant has modified their traffic analysis which resulted in the analysis which is included in this agenda packet. It is important to note that the process for obtaining a break in limit ed access is detailed and lengthy and includes a number of distinct requirements coordinated at all times with VDOT. Only one of those requirements is a locality resolution of support. In addition to the Board’s previously adopted resolution, Staff has included in this agenda documentation outlining the requirements for obtaining a break in limited access. Recommended Action Due to the fact that the traffic analysis presented was not developed in coordination with VDOT or with their review, Staff is not in a position to determine whether it meets the requirements of the VDOT process. In addition, as noted earlier the locality resolution is only one small part of a very involved process run by VDOT for an access break in the VDOT right-of-way. It is Staff’s position that this item should remain discussion only until such time as coordination and agreement can be reached between VDOT and the Applicant. WINCHESTER-81 PROPERTY ANALYSISWINCHESTER-81 PROPERTY ANALYSISPROPERTY ANALYSISSUPPLEMENTAL TRANSPORTATION ASSESSMENT JANUARY 2019 PROPERTY ANALYSISPROPERTY ANALYSIS   FILENAME: H:\19\19471 - WINCHESTER, LLC PROPERTY\REPORT\19471_SUPPLEMENTAL TRAFFIC ANALYSIS_FINAL.DOCX     MEMORANDUM     Date: January 17, 2019 Project #: 19471  To: Winchester‐81 LLC   C/O Michael Coughlin  Walsh Colucci Lubeley & Walsh, PC  4310 Prince William County Parkway  Prince William, VA 22192 From: Chris Tiesler, PE   Project: Winchester‐81 Property Analysis Subject: Supplemental Transportation Assessment    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY  Kittelson & Associates, Inc. (Kittelson) has prepared this memorandum to document the findings of a  supplemental  analysis  of  the  Winchester‐81  property  traffic  impact  study.  The  main  body  of  this  memorandum provides a thorough presentation and discussion of relevant details related to prior  studies,  background  growth  assumptions,  access  configurations  serving  the  subject  Winchester‐81  property, and an updated assessment of off‐site transportation improvements considered.   Overall, the analysis demonstrates that a full break in limited access on Route 11 provides a net benefit  to the overall transportation system relative to the scenarios with no limited access break or only a partial  (ingress‐only) break. We recommend that a break in limited access be granted to provide full access to  the subject site, and the SR‐37 westbound off‐ramp be widened by year 2030. Key findings from this  supplemental assessment are summarized below.   The full April 2018 transportation impact study identified the weekday p.m. peak hour as the  most critical time period.   o This assessment focuses exclusively on weekday p.m. peak hour performance  o Traffic conditions during the weekday a.m. and Saturday midday time periods are  better that those reported for the weekday p.m. peak hour   The full April 2018 transportation impact study was required by VDOT to apply a 1.5% annual  growth rate to forecast future background volume conditions  o Long‐term historical AADT data on Route 11empirically demonstrate 0.5% is a more  appropriate growth rate for the study area. Winchester‐81 Property Analysis Project #: 19471  January 17, 2019 Page 2  Kittelson & Associates, Inc.  Reston, Virginia  o VDOT applied a 0.5% annual growth rate in their STARS Route 11 (Valley Pike/Valley  Avenue) Corridor Study   o This assessment also applies a 0.5% annual growth rate   Several access scenarios have been fully re‐evaluated to understand how the amount of  direct access provided to the Winchester‐81 site impacts intersection operations and Route  11 corridor performance, and how widening the SR‐37 westbound off‐ramp would affect  performance.  o Background (no development on Winchester‐81 property)  o Full Access  o Ingress‐Only with SB left‐turn in (all exiting traffic uses Commonwealth Court)  o Ingress‐Only with no SB left‐turn in (SB lefts must turn at Commonwealth Court; all  exiting traffic uses Commonwealth Court)  o No Access (no limited access break granted – all Winchester‐81 traffic accesses site  via Commonwealth Court)   Key findings from opening year 2021 analyses:   o Commonwealth Court intersection operates at LOS F under all access scenarios except  Full Access, which operates at LOS C  o SR‐37 WB Off‐Ramp intersection with no off‐ramp widening:   LOS C/D under all access scenarios    No ramp queue spillback under all access scenarios  o SR‐37 WB Off‐Ramp intersection with ramp widening:    LOS C/D under all access scenarios (generally slightly lower delays due to  increased capacity of widened ramp)   No ramp queue spillback under all access scenarios   Key findings from design year 2040 analyses:  o Commonwealth Court intersection operates at LOS F under all access scenarios except  Full Access, which operates at LOS D  o SR‐37 WB Off‐Ramp intersection with no off‐ramp widening:   LOS D under all access scenarios except Full Access, which operates at LOS E   Ramp queue spillback under all access scenarios  o SR‐37 WB Off‐Ramp intersection with ramp widening:    LOS C/D under all access scenarios (generally slightly lower delays due to  increased capacity of widened ramp)   Ramp queue spillback under all access scenarios except Full Access     Winchester‐81 Property Analysis Project #: 19471  January 17, 2019 Page 3  Kittelson & Associates, Inc.  Reston, Virginia   Key findings regarding Route 11 corridor performance:  o As more direct access to the site is provided, traffic demands on  Route  11  are  reduced. Thus, Route 11 performance is inversely related to Winchester‐81 property  access.  o By the design year 2040, the corridor operation conditions naturally deteriorate due  to additional background growth being assumed over time.  The  Full  Access  break  produces  better  progression  on  Route  11  peak  direction  (southbound) relative to the No Access and Ingress‐Only access scenarios.    Key findings related to SR‐37 westbound off‐ramp queues:  o In 2021, none of the access scenario produce queue spillback to mainline SR‐37.  o By the design year 2040, the SR‐37 westbound off‐ramp queue is forecast to spill back  onto mainline SR‐37 under all access scenarios if the off‐ramp is not widened.   o If widened, the projected maximum queue is forecast to exceed the available storage  under the No Access and Ingress‐Only access scenarios.   o Providing Full Access to the Winchester‐81 site produces the shortest queues relative  to the other access scenarios and will not cause queues on the off‐ramp to spill back  onto mainline SR‐37 or adversely impact the operations along Route 11 or SR‐37  when the off‐ramp is widened to a four‐lane cross‐section.   Key findings related to off‐site transportation improvements:  o Traffic from the Winchester‐81 site adds traffic to the SR‐37 westbound off‐ramp but  does not cause queues to spill back under any access scenario in 2021.  o The additional background growth in traffic (an additional 9.5% between 2021 and  2040) will eventually cause queues to spill back to mainline SR‐37 under all access  scenarios unless the off‐ramp is widened.   If widened, only the Full Access scenario produces an acceptable queue that  will not spill back to mainline SR‐37.  o Traffic generated by the Winchester‐81 site does not necessitate widening Route 11.    Consider that by design year 2040 assuming full access, background traffic  growth on southbound represents 12.1% of the total volume, while site‐ generated traffic contributes only 0.6%.   Providing Full Access to the Winchester‐81 site minimizes its traffic impact to  Route 11 operations and produces the best overall operational results.  o Widening the SR‐37 westbound off‐ramp will be necessary under all access scenarios  by year 2040. This need is driven mostly by projected long‐term growth in background  traffic over time, and to a lesser extent by traffic generated by the Winchester‐81 site.  Sensitivity analyses suggest widening will be required by year 2030 to ensure off‐ramp  queues do not spill back to mainline SR‐37.     Winchester‐81 Property Analysis Project #: 19471  January 17, 2019 Page 4  Kittelson & Associates, Inc.  Reston, Virginia  o Overall,  the  signal  phasing/timing  changes  required  by  any  access  scenario  are  relatively minor, and the Full Access scenario produces acceptable design year 2040  operational results at the SR‐37 Westbound Ramp Terminal signal and consistently  produces the best overall transportation system performance relative to the other  access scenarios.   o Providing access to the Winchester‐81 site will require modification of the existing  traffic signal, which the property owner has agreed to design/construct. The owner  will also construct the extension of Commonwealth Court through his own property  to facilitate access and the connection between the SR‐37 ramp and the current  terminus of Commonwealth Court.     Winchester‐81 Property Analysis Project #: 19471  January 17, 2019 Page 5  Kittelson & Associates, Inc.  Reston, Virginia  INTRODUCTION  Kittelson  prepared  a  transportation  impact  analysis 1  of  the  Winchester‐81  site  in  April  2018  that  comprehensively  considered  property  access  configurations  and  the  resultant  impacts  on  the  surrounding transportation network. The scope of the study was developed with and approved by the  Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT). Identified performance measures spanned a broad range  of network, segment, and intersection metrics focused on the operational performance of the system for  both an assumed opening year (2021) and design year (2040). The design year of 2040 was selected to  understand the potential long‐term impact of a break in the limited access line along the site’s frontage,  which would be required for two of the three access scenarios considered (ingress‐only access, full  access).  It  purposefully  avoids  mixing  objectively‐measured  performance  metrics  with  subjective  assessments of other less easily measured factors.  The study demonstrated that full/direct access to the site at the SR‐37 WB Off‐Ramp produces the best  overall results/outcome for the Winchester‐81 site as well as the surrounding transportation network.  Restricting access to the Winchester‐81 site only serves to increase strain on Route 11 and the adjacent  Route 11/Commonwealth Court intersection and would have negative repercussions to development  potential, marketability, and overall value of the site itself.   The  April  2018  study  conclusively  demonstrated  two  key  outcomes  relied  upon  throughout  the  remainder of this document:   The  weekday  p.m.  peak  hour  is  the  most  critical  time  period  when  demands  on  the  transportation network are greatest – even relative to the other peak hours evaluated (weekday  a.m. and Saturday midday). If analyses demonstrate adequate performance of the transportation  system during this time period, it can be assumed that the system will operate as well or better  during all other peak and non‐peak periods.    Full  access  to  the  Winchester‐81  site  consistently  produces  the  best  overall  performance  relative to the other access scenarios (ingress‐only, no access).  BACKGROUND GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS  The April 2018 study was required by VDOT to apply a 1.5% annual growth rate to existing traffic volumes  through the identified design year of 2040. During this same time, VDOT commissioned a study of the  Route 11 corridor2 from Battle Park Drive to Renaissance Drive through their Strategically Targeted  Affordable  Roadway  Solutions  (STARS)  Program.  This  program’s  goal  is  to  develop  comprehensive,                                                            1 Kittelson & Associates, Inc. Winchester‐81 Property Analysis. April 2018.  2 Virginia Department of Transportation & WSP. Route 11 (Valley Pike/Valley Avenue) Corridor Study – Final Draft Report.  https://winfredmpo.org/wp‐content/uploads/2018/10/STARS‐Final‐Draft‐Report‐Route‐11‐08062018‐002.pdf   Winchester‐81 Property Analysis Project #: 19471  January 17, 2019 Page 6  Kittelson & Associates, Inc.  Reston, Virginia  innovative transportation solutions to relieve congestion bottlenecks and solve critical traffic and safety  challenges throughout the commonwealth.  Table 1 shows the Average Annual Daily Traffic (ADT) volumes on the Route 11 corridor taken from the  STARS report. The presented linear historic growth rates show primarily low growth in the study area.  The VDOT STARS project team identified and agreed upon a 0.5% annual growth rate in its analyses. The  assumed growth rate of 0.5% per year was applied to the 2017 traffic volumes to generate projected  future year traffic volumes.  Table 1. VDOT Historic Traffic Volumes from STARS Report  Year Roadway Segment/AADT Volume  AADT Type of Count  1997  15110  Average of Selected Continuous Count Data  1998  15673  Average of Complete Continuous Data  1999  15735  Factored Short Term Traffic Count Data  2000  15801  Average of Selected Continuous Count Data  2001  15139  Average of Complete Continuous Data  2002  15854  Average of Complete Continuous Data  2003  16501  Average of Complete Continuous Data  2004  17399  Average of Selected Continuous Count Data  2005  17445  Average of Complete Continuous Data  2006  17304  Average of Selected Continuous Count Data  2007  17219  Average of Selected Continuous Count Data  2008  16305  Average of Complete Continuous Data  2009  15959  Average of Complete Continuous Data  2010  16593  Average of Complete Continuous Data  2011  16615  Average of Complete Continuous Data  2012  16772  Average of Complete Continuous Data  2013  16788  Average of Complete Continuous Data  2014  16432  Average of Complete Continuous Data  2015  16577  Average of Complete Continuous Data  2016  16707  Average of Complete Continuous Data    Table  2 shows the long‐term historical data on relevant roadways immediately  adjacent  to  the  Winchester‐81 site. When restricting the analysis to a most recent 10‐year timeframe, the annual growth  rate on Route 11 is calculated as negative ‐0.5%.  The analysis of empirical data demonstrates that VDOT’s requirement for the Winchester‐81 study to  apply a 1.5% annual growth rate is too conservative and over‐estimates future growth and resultant  traffic operations under both the opening (2021) and design year (2040) conditions. The long‐term  historical data on Route 11 suggests 0.5% annual growth rate is more appropriate. Therefore, this  supplemental analysis applies a 0.5% annual growth rate through year 2040.  Winchester‐81 Property Analysis Project #: 19471  January 17, 2019 Page 7  Kittelson & Associates, Inc.  Reston, Virginia  Table 2. VDOT Historical Average Daily Traffic (ADT) Volumes (2007‐2017)  Year  Route 11  % Change City Line to  SR‐37  2007 17000 ‐‐  2008 16000 ‐5.9%  2009 16000 0.0%  2010 17000 6.3%  2011 17000 0.0%  2012 17000 0.0%  2013 17000 0.0%  2014 16000 ‐5.9%  2015 17000 6.3%  2016 17000 0.0%  2017 16000 ‐5.9%  Average Annual Growth ‐0.5%  UPDATED TRAFFIC ANALYSES  The analyses of weekday p.m. peak hour total traffic conditions (full build out of the Winchester‐81  property) was conducted assuming no ramp widening for analysis years 2021 and 2040. Table 3 shows  the lane configuration assumptions at the westbound off‐ramp approach for each access scenario.    Figure 1  illustrates  the  various  access  scenarios  and  how  site‐generated  traffic  would  access  the  Winchester‐81 site for each.  Winchester‐81 Property Analysis                           Project #: 19471  January 17, 2019                          Page 8  Kittelson & Associates, Inc.                             Reston, Virginia    Table 3. Lane Configuration Assumptions at Route 11 / SR‐37 WB Off‐Ramp Intersection  Access Break Assumed Lane Configurations Access Break Assumed Lane Configurations  No Build/Background   No development of  subject parcel    Establish a baseline  benchmark        Ingress‐Only w/out SB Left‐In   Requires break in  limited access ‐ NBR  into the site; EBT into  the site   NO outbound traffic is  allowed   Force all exiting traffic  to leave site via  Commonwealth and  south on Route 11 to  return to SR‐37 and/or  I‐81      No Access   No break in limited access   All traffic to/from site via  Route 11 and  Commonwealth Court        Ingress‐Only w/ SB Left‐In   Requires break in  limited access ‐ NBR  into the site; EBT into  the site; and SBL into  the site   NO outbound traffic is  allowed   Force all exiting traffic  to leave site via  Commonwealth and  south on Route 11 to  return to SR‐37 and/or  I‐81      Ingress‐Only (Right In/Right Out  Only)   Requires break in limited  access ‐ NBR into the site;  and WBR out of the site   Force all exiting traffic to  leave site via  Commonwealth and  south on Route 11 to  return to SR‐37 and/or I‐ 81   No changes at signal  phasing or signal timing  required   This scenario yields  similar results to that of  No Access break scenario.  No detailed analysis is  presented in this memo      Full Access   Requires break in  limited access   All movements are  allowed and provide  full access in and out  of the development   Eliminates non‐ intuitive and out‐of‐ direction travel to  access site      Winchester‐81 Property Analysis Project #: 19471  January 17, 2019 Page 10  Kittelson & Associates, Inc.  Reston, Virginia  Intersection Operations  Table 4 provides a comparison of traffic operational results at key intersections. Attachment A contains  the operational analysis worksheets for all scenarios assuming the SR‐37 westbound off‐ramp is not  widened.  Route 11/Commonwealth Court  The intersection of Route 11 and Commonwealth Court is forecast to operate at LOS F in year 2021 and  2040 under No Access and Ingress‐Only scenarios. The intersection will operate at LOS C/D when a full  access break is provided.  Route 11/SR‐37 WB Ramp Terminal  The intersection of Route 11 and SR‐37 WB Off‐Ramp is forecast to operate at LOS D or better under all  access break scenarios in 2021. In 2040, the intersection will operate at LOS E when a full access break is  provided.  Table 4. Intersection Operation Results – PM Peak Hour without SR‐37 WB Off‐Ramp Widening  Intersection  2021 PM No Widened Ramp  Background No Access Ingress‐Only  w/o SBL  Ingress‐Only  w/ SBL Full Access  Route 11 / Commonwealth Ct 29.1 (C) 85.2 (F) 88.6 (F) 95.9 (F) 28.1 (C)  Route 11 / SR‐37 WB Ramps 28.0 (C) 37.1 (D) 37.4 (D)* 35.0 (C)* 50.8 (D)*  Intersection  2040 PM No Widened Ramp  Background No Access Ingress‐Only  w/o SBL  Ingress‐Only  w/ SBL Full Access  Route 11 / Commonwealth Ct 38.0 (D) 117.5 (F) 127.0 (F) 128.1 (F) 39.3 (D)  Route 11 / SR‐37 WB Ramps 32.3 (C) 52.9 (D) 47.1 (D)* 41.6 (D)* 69.2 (E)*  *HCM 2000 results since the geometry is not supported by the HCM 2010 methodology.  Route 11 Corridor Operations  Figure 2 illustrates a comparison of Route 11 southbound arterial speed. In 2021, the southbound Route  11 corridor operation conditions are comparable across all access scenarios. By the design year 2040, the  corridor operation conditions naturally deteriorate due to additional background growth being assumed  over time. Route 11 southbound is forecast to operate with an average arterial speed of 9 mph under  the No Access and Ingress‐Only Access with SB left‐in scenarios, with a decrease of 7 mph compared to  the background condition. Attachment B contains the corridor operations analysis worksheets for all  scenarios assuming the SR‐37 westbound off‐ramp is not widened.    Winchester‐81 Property Analysis Project #: 19471  January 17, 2019 Page 11  Kittelson & Associates, Inc.  Reston, Virginia    Figure 2. Route 11 Southbound Arterial Speed Comparisons  Site‐Generated Traffic vs. Background Growth  Traffic generated by the subject parcel represents a small percentage of overall traffic on Route 11  southbound in the design year when compared to the cumulative increase in traffic volumes due to  assumed background growth. It is also noteworthy that as parcel access increases, site‐generated traffic  impacts on Route 11 southbound decrease. Table 5 shows the relationship between site‐generated  traffic  and  background  traffic  across  the  identified  access  scenarios  under  year  2040  design  year  conditions.  Table 5. Percent Contribution to Route 11 Southbound Traffic Volumes – Design Year 2040  Traffic Generator  Access Scenario  No Access Ingress‐Only  w/o SBL  Ingress‐Only  w/ SBL Full Access  Site‐Generated Traffic from  Subject Site 13.8%  8.2%  8.2%  0.6%  Background Growth 8.9% 9.5% 9.5% 12.1%  Queuing Analysis at SR‐37 WB Off‐Ramp  Figure 3 illustrates a queue comparison for future analysis years. In 2021, the projected queues can be  accommodated by the available turning storage lengths under all access scenarios. No queue spill back  onto mainline SR‐37 (Winchester Bypass) will occur, and adequate sight distance to the back of queue is  provided. By the design year 2040, the forecast maximum queues are projected to spill back onto SR‐37  under all access scenarios in the off‐ramp is not widened.  Winchester‐81 Property Analysis Project #: 19471  January 17, 2019 Page 12  Kittelson & Associates, Inc.  Reston, Virginia    Figure 3. Queue Lengths at SR‐37 WB Off‐Ramp Comparisons (No Ramp Widening)  OFF‐SITE IMPROVEMENTS  The property owner commissioned the Winchester‐81 study to set in motion a process to obtain a break  in the limited access line along its Route 11 frontage to provide direct access to the site. This access would  include construction of an extension of Commonwealth Court through the property to appropriate public  street standards, as well as reconstruction/modification of the existing traffic signal at the Route 11/SR‐ 37 WB Ramps intersection to facilitate full access, at the owner’s sole cost.   SR‐37 Westbound Off‐Ramp Widening  The  same  intersection‐  and  corridor‐level  measures  of  effectiveness  (MOEs)  consistent  with  study  parameters and forecasting assumptions contained in the Winchester I‐81 Property Analysis Report are  evaluated with the assumption of the widening of the SR‐37 westbound ramp.  Table 6 presents a comparison of traffic operational results at key intersections assuming the SR‐37  Westbound Off‐Ramp is widened. Widening will not change intersection operations previously reported  for the Route 11 / Commonwealth Court intersection. With the ramp widening, the Route 11 / SR‐37 WB  Ramp intersection is forecast to operate at LOS D or better through design year 2040 under all access  scenarios. Attachment C contains the operational analysis worksheets for all scenarios assuming the SR‐ 37 westbound off‐ramp is widened.      Winchester‐81 Property Analysis Project #: 19471  January 17, 2019 Page 13  Kittelson & Associates, Inc.  Reston, Virginia  Table 6. Intersection Operation Results – PM Peak Hour with SR‐37 WB Off‐Ramp Widening  Intersection  2021 PM Ramp Widened  Background No Access Ingress‐Only  w/o SBL  Ingress‐Only  w/ SBL Full Access  Route 11 / Commonwealth Ct 29.1 (C) 85.2 (F) 88.6 (F) 95.9 (F) 28.1 (C)  Route 11 / SR‐37 WB Ramps 28.0 (C) 37.1 (D) 28.6 (C)* 30.2 (C)* 46.9 (D)  Intersection  2040 PM Ramp Widened  Background No Access Ingress‐Only  w/ SBL  Ingress‐Only  w/o SBL Full Access  Route 11 / Commonwealth Ct 38.0 (D) 117.5 (F) 127.0 (F) 128.1 (F) 39.3 (D)  Route 11 / SR‐37 WB Ramps 32.3 (C) 52.9 (D) 33.5 (C)* 33.3 (C)* 50.6 (D)  Figure 4 compares forecast Route 11 southbound arterial speeds across all evaluated access scenarios.  The full Access break scenario produces the highest southbound corridor speeds compared to other  access scenarios. Provision of full access to the subject site reduces congestion and provides improved  progression along southbound Route 11 in both 2021 and 2040 relative to the other access scenarios.  Attachment D contains the corridor operations analysis worksheets for all scenarios assuming the SR‐37  westbound off‐ramp is widened.    Figure 4. Route 11 Southbound Speed Comparisons – With and Without SR‐37 WB Ramp Widening  Figure 5 and Figure 6 illustrate the forecast queue lengths on the SR‐37 westbound off‐ramp. In 2021,  projected  queues  can  be  accommodated  by  the  available  turning  storage  lengths  under  all  access  scenarios, though Full Access to the subject site produces the shortest queue compared to the No Access  and Ingress‐Only scenarios. By the design year 2040, the SR‐37 westbound off‐ramp queue is forecast to  spill back onto mainline SR‐37 under all access scenarios if the off‐ramp is not widened. If widened, the  projected maximum queue is forecast to exceed the available storage under the No Access and Ingress‐ Only access scenarios. Again, provision of full access to the subject site produces the shortest queues  relative to the other access scenarios and will not cause queues on the off‐ramp to spill back onto  Winchester‐81 Property Analysis Project #: 19471  January 17, 2019 Page 14  Kittelson & Associates, Inc.  Reston, Virginia  mainline SR‐37 or adversely impact the operations along Route 11 or SR‐37 when the off‐ramp is widened  to a four‐lane cross‐section.    Figure 5. Year 2021 Queue Lengths at SR‐37 WB Off‐Ramp Comparisons – With and Without SR‐37 WB  Off‐Ramp Widening    Figure 6. Year 2040 Queue Lengths at SR‐37 WB Off‐Ramp Comparisons – With and Without SR‐37 WB  Off‐Ramp Widening       Winchester‐81 Property Analysis Project #: 19471  January 17, 2019 Page 15  Kittelson & Associates, Inc.  Reston, Virginia  Traffic Signal Phasing/Timing   Providing a limited access break would add a signal phase to the SR‐37 Westbound Ramp Terminal traffic  signal for the Full Access scenario. Ingress‐Only access scenarios require some signal timing/green time  reallocation between various movements. All signal phasing and timing parameters were adjusted in  accordance  with  VDOT  Traffic  Engineering  Memorandum  TE  306.1  to  account  for  new  inbound  movements. Key findings related to signal phasing/timing for each access scenario are summarized  below.   Full Access  o Adds a signal phase to allow outbound movements.    Without SR‐37 off‐ramp widening, the eastbound/off‐ramp approach and  westbound approach must operate with split phasing (EB and WB movements  operate sequentially).    With  SR‐37  off‐ramp  widening,  protected  left‐turn  phasing  facilitates  concurrent EB/WB left‐turn movements, improving the efficiency of the signal  operation and operates acceptably through design year 2040.   Ingress‐Only (with SB left‐turn in & without SB left‐turn in)  o Neither scenario adds a signal phase but requires a small amount of green time  (approximately  8‐9  seconds)  be  reallocated  from  the  NB  Route  11 through  movement.    This reallocation of green time does not change the intersection LOS or the  specific northbound Route 11 through movement LOS in design year 2040.   Average delay increase to NB Route 11 through movement without ramp  widening:   8.7 seconds   Average  delay  increase  to  NB  Route  11  through  movement  with  ramp  widening:   6.0 seconds if SR‐37 Westbound Off‐Ramp is widened   No Access  o Does not add a signal phase.  Overall, the signal phasing/timing changes required by any access scenario are relatively minor, and the  Full Access scenario produces acceptable design year 2040 operational results at the SR‐37 Westbound  Ramp Terminal signal and consistently produces the best overall transportation system performance  relative to the other access scenarios.    WWW.KITELSON.COM Item 2: Old Charlestown Road Intersection with Route 11 – Citizen Concerns Topic Synopsis Supervisor McCann-Slaughter has requested Staff add concerns related to traffic backups at the intersection of Route 11 and Old Charlestown Road to the agenda, particularly in light of the upcoming Jordan Springs Elementary School opening. This request is the result of numerous contacts from citizens. Analysis Leading up to the most recent round of SmartScale applications, VDOT studied the intersection and noted that, while a signal meets their warrant requirement, a roundabout would be best suited to handle the traffic. One reason Staff has been provided for this is that the study raised concerns over the amount of northbound and southbound delay created by a new signal. This analysis was used in development of a SmartScale application for a roundabout at this intersection. Unfortunately, upon scoring the project VDOT has not recommended it for funding. An alternative that remains available to the County is the proffers from the Stephenson Village rezoning, now known as Snowden Bridge. The development has proffered improvements to Old Charlestown Road as well as signalization at the intersection of Old Charlestown Road and Route 11. The trigger for the proffer to signalize the intersection is the meeting of VDOT warrants. Staff has included the transportation proffers from Stephenson Village in the agenda packet. Recommended Action Discussion Item 3: Northern Y – Revenue Sharing Topic Synopsis Staff has received the 30% design and cost estimate (attached) for the connection from Crossover Boulevard to Route 522 commonly referred to as the ‘Northern Y’. Due to the fact that the agreement with Glaize (attached) contemplates a total project of $2.4 million dollars, Staff is updating the Committee and seeking a recommendation to the Board of Supervisors. Analysis It is important to note that the agreement itself was developed under conditions of differing opinion between the County and our private partner. This resulted in the language that called for this review once the design reached 30%. At that time the planning level estimate provided by the County’s consultant was $3.5 million dollars following a scoping analysis and study in coordination with VDOT and our private partner believe the estimate should be under $2 million. The attached estimate has come in at $6,053,390. However, that cost estimate includes everything from the Crossover Boulevard roundabout to Route 522. The portion that is covered under the agreement with Glaize represents 86% of that cost or $5,205,915.40. The County was approved for revenue sharing on the project totaling $2,193,145 toward this segment of roadway and its intersection with Route 522. Combined with the $1.2 million that Glaize is willing to provide at this time this leaves a shortfall of $1,812,770.40. Under the agreement, either party can choose to contribute this shortfall or end the project. One potential method to address the shortfall would be for the County to pursue additional funding through the revenue sharing project during the application window that opens in fall 2019. Staff’s discussion with Glaize regarding the shortfall has indicated that they are unwilling to put forth more funding unless the County is also doing so, however Staff was not provided the amount that would be put forth. As a connection to the future realignment of Route 522 and Warrior Drive to the south, this project does play an important role in the County’s overall comprehensive plan. However, both of those projects are significantly long term in nature and Staff is unable to predict when this segment of roadway will provide the value added to those projects. In the interim, it would primarily serve to distribute traffic that is traveling to and from the new Crossover Boulevard Bridge being constructed. Recommended Action Staff’s recommended action is contingent on receiving indication on whether the County’s private partner is willing to provide the required additional matching funds and a backstop agreement. Jo b N o : FREDC18004 Da t e 2/25/2019 De s B y : EDS Ch k B y : CLA Se c t i o n S t a . t o S t a . C o s t R1 5 0 W 4 1 + 7 5 t o 4 5 + 7 1 . 6 8 $ 8 6 0 , 0 1 5 FL G 6 4 B - A - 7 3 B 4 5 + 7 1 . 6 8 t o 4 7 + 8 5 $ 4 6 2 , 4 8 4 FL G 6 4 - A - 9 4 7 + 8 5 t o 5 6 + 3 5 $ 1 , 8 4 2 , 8 2 6 RT . 5 2 2 1 4 + 2 6 t o 2 1 + 2 0 $ 2 , 0 3 4 , 7 5 4 El k s L o d g e / A c c e s s R o a d $2 4 6 , 8 0 5 Po n d $6 0 6 , 5 0 6 To t a l $ 6 , 0 5 3 , 3 9 0 No t e s : 1. T o t a l l i n e a r f o o t a g e f o r p r o j e c t , i n c l u d i n g S e c t i o n s R 1 5 0 W , F L G 6 4 B - A - 7 3 B , F L G 6 4 - A - 9 , E l k s L o d g e / A c c e s s R o a d , a n d R t . 5 2 2 , i s 2 4 9 8 L F . 2. R o a d w a y c o s t s p e r L F i n c l u d e s M o b i l i z a t i o n , 1 2 % c o n s t r u c t i o n a d m i n . a n d a 2 5 % c o n t i n g e n c y . 3. M O T i s i n c l u d e d i n R T . 5 2 2 . 4. C o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e P r o p o s e d T r a f f i c S i g n a l a r e i n c l u d e d i n R T . 5 2 2 . 5. R o a d w a y c o s t s $ 1 , 6 1 3 . 1 4 p e r L F f o r S e c t i o n s R 1 5 0 W , F L G 6 4 B - A - 7 3 B , F L G 6 4 - A - 9 . Pe n n o n i A s s o c i a t e s I n c . Co n s u l t i n g E n g i n e e r s Pr o j e c t : N o r t h T e v i s S t r e e t E x t e n s i o n - U P C 9 4 8 4 6 Su b j e c t : E s t i m a t e B r e a k d o w n Pe r c e n t a g e 100%30%8%14%34%4%10% Job No: FREDC18004 Date 2/25/2019 Des By:EDS Chk By:CLA ITEM UNIT QUANTITY PRICE TOTAL DEMOLITION DEMOLITION OF EXISTING SINGLE FAMILY HOME EA 1 $10,000.00 $10,000.00 DEMOLITION OF EXISTING ELKS LODGE DRIVEWAY SY 1284 $12.00 $15,406.40 SAWCUT LF 700 $20.00 $14,000.00 FLEXIBLE PAVEMENT PLANING (0-1.5" DEPTH) SY 5,762 $1.85 $10,660.21 REMOVAL OF FENCING LF 390 $10.00 $3,900.00 REMOVE SIDEWALK RAMP SY 25 $5.00 $124.63 REMOVE EXISTING DRIVEWAY SY 282 $20.00 $5,634.22 REMOVE EXISTING STORM PIPE LF 650 $40.00 $26,000.00 REMOVE EXISTING DROP INLET EA 5 $1,200.00 $6,000.00 REMOVE EXISTING STORM STRUCTURE EA 2 $750.00 $1,500.00 REMOVE CURB AND GUTTER LF 665 $20.00 $13,293.00 EARTHWORKS CLEARING AND GRUBBING AC 5 $10,000.00 $53,754.13 REGULAR EXCAVATION CY 19,850 $18.00 $357,300.00 SELECT MATERIAL, TYPE I TON 28,526 $10.00 $285,257.70 GRADING SY 26,000 $1.00 $26,000.00 ROADSIDE DEVELOPMENT (SEEDING, TOPSPOIL, LIME, FERTILIZER,ETC)LS 1 $125,000.00 $125,000.00 PAVEMENT STD. COMB. CURB & GUTTER CG-6 LF 2,850 $22.17 $63,193.37 RADIAL COMB. CURB & GUTTER CG-6 LF 593 $25.00 $14,827.50 STD CURB CG-7 LF 46 $19.93 $924.75 STD CG-12 WITH DETECTABLE WARNING SURFACE SY 245 $597.22 $146,199.46 GRASS MEDIAN STRIP, M2 LF 382 $35.00 $13,356.00 CONCRETE MEDIAN STRIP, MS-1A SY 138 $100.00 $13,817.78 HYDRAULIC CEMENT CONC. 4" SIDEWALK SY 696 $48.27 $33,601.82 1.5" SURFACE COURSE - SM-9.5D TON 1,423 $75.31 $107,174.63 2" SURFACE COURSE MULTI-USE PATH- SM-9.5AL TON 157 $75.31 $11,821.41 2.5" INTERMEDIATE COURSE - IM-19D TON 2,025 $115.00 $232,821.46 BASE COURSE - BM-25.0D TON 1,491 $68.37 $101,925.55 AGGREGATE BASE - NO.21B TON 1,972 $18.40 $36,282.99 TACK COAT GAL 816 $3.50 $2,856.93 GUARDRAIL / FENCING STD GR-MGS1 LF 236 $20.00 $4,720.00 STD GR-MGS2 EA 2 $2,500.00 $5,000.00 DRAINAGE DRAINAGE LS 1 $450,000.00 $450,000.00 BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES (REVENUE SHARING)LS 1 $425,000.00 $425,000.00 TRAFFIC SIGNAL TRAFFIC SIGNAL - RT.522 AND TEVIS STREET LS 1 $350,000.00 $350,000.00 SIGNAGE / PAVEMENT MARKING SIGNAGE LS 1 $48,900.00 $48,900.00 PAVEMENT MARKINGS LS 1 $55,500.00 $55,500.00 MAINTENANCE OF TRAFFIC MOT LS 1 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 MISCELLANEOUS ROW LS 1 $350,000.00 $350,000.00 E&S LS 1 $200,000.00 $200,000.00 UTILITY RELOCATIONS - GAS, ELECTRIC, POWER LS 1 $300,000.00 $300,000.00 RELOCATION OF ELKS LODGE SIGN LS 1 $20,000.00 $20,000.00 TOTAL BID AMOUNT $4,241,753.93 MOBILIZATION $242,187.11 CONSTRUCTION ADMINISTRATION @ 12%$509,010.47 CONTINGENCIES @ 25%$1,060,438.48 GRAND TOTAL $6,053,390.00 Pennoni Associates Inc. Consulting Engineers Project: Northern Tevis Street Extension - UPC 94846 Subject: 30% Submittal Estimate Item 4: SmartScale Update and Breakdown Topic Synopsis Staff is preparing an update to the current SmartScale process and breakdown of recommended allocations through the different components of the program for presentation at the meeting. Analysis NA Recommended Action TBD Item 5: County Project Updates Tevis Street Extension/Airport Road/I-81 Bridge: Low bidder is Perry Engineering with a bid of $17,592,682.83. A preconstruction meeting is scheduled for May 7, 2019 with an expected notice to proceed of May 14, 2019 and an expected completion date of September 10, 2021. Renaissance Drive: Proceeding to 30% design under the new scope. Staff has been engaging in discussions with VDOT regarding the closure of the current Springdale Road rail crossing and detail items on the road design such as transition of the existing curb and gutter section into the ditch section. Northern Y: Discussion on today’s agenda. Jubal Early Drive Extension and Interchange with Route 37: No activity at this time. Item 6: Upcoming Agenda Items April Interstate, Primary, and Secondary Road plan updates TBD Oakdale Crossing Traffic Calming Study Item 7: Other