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CPPC 08-10-15 Meeting AgendaCOUNTY of FREDERICK Department of Planning and Development 540/ 665-5651 Fax: 540/ 665-6395 TO:Comprehensive Plans and Programs Committee (CPPC) FROM:Michael T. Ruddy, AICP, Deputy Director RE:August 10, 2015 Meeting Agenda DATE:August 3, 2015 The Frederick County Comprehensive Plans and Programs Committee (CPPC) will be meeting on Monday, August 10, 2015 at 7:00 p.m. in the first floor conference room (purple room)of the County Administration Building, 107 North Kent Street, Winchester, Virginia. The CPPC will discuss the following agenda items: AGENDA 1. 2035 Comprehensive Plan Update -Economic Analysis.Staff will provide a review of the Economic Analysis prepared for the first phase of the update; the review and update of Appendix I –Background Analysis and Supporting Studies. This is the second item for the CPPC’s review following our discussion of the Demographic Analysis and the initiation of the 2035 Comprehensive Plan Update at the July meeting. 2.Kernstown Area Plan – The CPPC will review further the Kernstown Area Plan, including a summary of the additional input received from the Transportation Committee and Historic Resources Advisory Board in July. 3.Other. Access to this building is limited during the evening hours. Therefore, it will be necessary to enter the building through the rear door of the four-story wing. Committee members and interested citizens are encouraged to park in the County parking lot located behind the County Office Building or in the joint Judicial Center parking lot and follow the sidewalk to the back door of the four- story wing. MTR/dlw Attachments MEMORANDUM 107 North Kent Street, Suite 202 •Winchester, Virginia 22601-5000 Item 1 2035 Comprehensive Plan Update; Economic Analysis. Economic Analysis The following attached information, the Economic Analysis prepared for the second phase of the update; the review and update of Appendix I – Background Analysis and Supporting Studies, is provided for the CPPC’s review. This information was put together with the assistance of Mr. Patrick Barker, Executive Director, Frederick County Economic Development Authority. This is the second part of Phase 1 of the update to the 2030 Comprehensive Plan, the 2035 Comprehensive Plan. As you are aware, the Frederick County Planning Commission and the Comprehensive Plans and Programs Committee (CPPC) will be undertaking the 5-year review and update of the 2030 Comprehensive Plan over the next 12 months. It is the goal to complete the update by the spring of 2016. The CPPC initiated this effort at your July 2015 meeting with the review of the Demographic Analysis Section. As we did in July, Staff has prepared a draft update to the relevant part of Appendix II, in this case Economic Analysis, and presents them to the CPPC for their review and endorsement during the corresponding month. This phase of the Update is to be completed by September 30, 2015. Therefore, we will be presenting the Land Use Analysis at the CPPC’s September meeting to complete the update of Appendix I – Background Analysis and Supporting Studies. Attachments: • Updated Economic Analysis information; Appendix I • Economic Overview, Frederick County, Virginia APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES • ECONOMIC ANALYSIS THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 1 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES ECONOMIC ANALYSIS The study of the economy of Frederick County involves many factors. This chapter examines the change in employment sectors, the role of small business and top employers. Change in Frederick County’s economy, undoubtedly, is evident in this chapter; however, the strong signs of stability with appropriate diversity are particularly noteworthy. RECENT EMPLOYMENT COMPARISONS AND TRENDS An analysis of the employment segments reveals minimal overall change in the Frederick County economy since 2005. While the absolute number of employment change is significant for some of the largest employers, 4 of the top employers in 2005 remain ten years later. Health Care and Social Assistance and Accommodation and Food Services employment are the two new arrivals to the top employer list. The growth of Winchester Medical Center and Frederick County’s population remain likely reasons for its rise. Overall, retail trade displayed the largest growth of the top employers (+1,677). Manufacturing’s overall net increase is noteworthy given its decrease in the Commonwealth overall. Sector 2005Q4 Sector 2015Q4 Manufacturing 4,584 Manufacturing 5,033 Educational Services 2,552 Retail Trade 3,405 Construction 2,322 Educational Services 2,891 Retail Trade 1,728 Accommodation and Food Services 2,217 Wholesale Trade 1,481 Construction 2,004 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 1,254 Health Care and Social Assistance 1,925 THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 2 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES Looking into the next twenty years, population increase and continued international economic forces will likely influence Frederick County’s economy and its largest employment sectors. Established clusters in food processing and plastic manufacturing coupled with the area’s sheer logistical advantages and workforce draw will likely keep manufacturing employment stable. Retail and healthcare growth, fueled by population growth, will gain additional employment and likely rise in its role within the economy. Joining the national and state trends, Frederick County will diversify further via service based employment. Professional service, finance and insurance employment will likely lead this surge. Although the major employment players remain mostly the same, their impact on the community has clearly changed. Viewing the growth in net new establishments provides an alternative view on the role of largest employment segments. The growth in the number of manufacturing establishments is a prime example. This fact along with overall positive employment growth in this sector demonstrates a very positive evolving manufacturing sector. The future of Frederick County’s economy shines bright given manufacturing’s noted large multiplier impact and above average wage. Overall, Frederick County added over 397 new establishments in the past ten years. Service based businesses; health care (+265) and accommodation and food services (+56) produced the largest net gain in new establishments since 2005. These sectors, however, collectively employ slightly half the employees of manufacturing sector. Advancing twenty year’s health care and professional service entities will likely continued to add their totals furthering Frederick County’s diversification into a manufacturing/service based economy. Sector 2005Q1 Sector 2015Q1 Construction (23) 307 Health Care and Social Assistance (62) 313 Retail Trade (44) 163 Construction (23) 217 Other Services (except Public Administration) (81) 117 Retail Trade (44) 195 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (54) 102 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (54) 132 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services (56) 97 Other Services (except Public Administration) (81) 132 Wholesale Trade (42) 88 Accommodation and Food Services (72) 119 THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 3 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES SMALL BUSINESS A discussion about any economy would be incomplete without reviewing the role of small businesses. Their importance to a community’s long term economic success cannot be overstated. In the United States overall, they employ nearly half of all private sector employees. They generated 60 to 80 percent of net new job annually over the last decade. The definition of small business varies widely. For this chapter purposes, small business will be identified as those employer with less than 19 employees. In 2004, 82.2% of all employers in Frederick County had less than 19 employees. Advance 10 years later, Frederick County experience a slight increase to 83.5% of employers with less than 19 employees. Given the number of arrival/increase of large employers like Kraft, HP Hood, FEMA, and Valley Health Systems, the ability of small business to hold their role in Frederick County’s economy is impressive. Sector 2004Q4 Sector 2014Q4 Health Care and Social Assistance 38 Health Care and Social Assistance 274 Construction 261 Construction 186 Retail Trade 126 Retail Trade 148 Other Services (except Public Administration) 106 Other Services (except Public Administration) 126 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 81 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 120 Administrative and Support and Waste Management 95 Administrative and Support and Waste Management 97 Small business will retain the vast majority of employment in Frederick County. As such, entrepreneurship/small business development should remain one of the pinnacles of Frederick County’s economic development. It is a beacon indicating when a community has an ideal business climate – when all physical and soft infrastructure is in place to allow new companies to grow and the community to self-sustain economic growth. The community’s undeveloped entrepreneurial culture has often been highlighted in studies as a hurdle to continued economic growth. THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 4 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES CURRENT TOP EMPLOYERS The section will illustrate the evolution of Frederick County’s economy through the top ten employer rankings. Over ten years ago, Frederick County’s economy was chiefly led by major manufacturers and local government entities. Manufacturers established deep roots due to the area’s immense access to the East Coast, Virginia’s favorable cost of business and Frederick Count’s productive workforce. Employer Industry Size Class Frederick County School Board Educational Services 1000 and over employees County of Frederick Executive, Legislative, and Other General Government Support 500 to 999 employees World Wide Automotive LLC Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods 500 to 999 employees Action Executive Services Administrative and Support Services 250 to 499 employees American Woodmark Corporation Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing 250 to 499 employees H.P. Hood, Inc. Food Manufacturing 250 to 499 employees Lord Fairfax Community College Educational Services 250 to 499 employees GE Lighting Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing 250 to 499 employees Shockey Brothers, Inc. Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing 250 to 499 employees Glaize and Brothers Wood Product Manufacturing 100 to 249 employees THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 5 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES Today, the make-up of the largest employers is quite more diverse than 2004. While manufacturers still hold several slots in the top ten, many service base employers, like Navy Federal, Home Depot and Department of Homeland Defense, have provided a more diverse economy than 10 years ago. These new additions provide enhanced stability during instance of plant closures and national economic downturns. Employer Industry Size Class Frederick County School Board Educational Services 1000 and over employees Navy Federal Credit Union Credit Intermediation and Related Activities 1000 and over employees U.S. Department of Homeland Defense Administration of Economic Programs 500 to 999 employees County of Frederick Executive, Legislative, and Other General Government Support 500 to 999 employees Lord Fairfax Community College Educational Services 500 to 999 employees Axiom Staffing Group Administrative and Support Services 500 to 999 employees H.P. Hood, Inc. Food Manufacturing 250 to 499 employees Kraft Foods Food Manufacturing 250 to 499 employees The Home Depot Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers 250 to 499 employees Trex Company Inc & Subsid Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing 250 to 499 employees THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 6 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES FUTURE BUSINESS GROWTH In 20 years, the top employer listing may contain many of the same names, but likely they will be joined by some of employers of tomorrow. Third party analyses have indicated a strong likelihood of success toward other business service operations, life science entities and defense/advance security oriented businesses. The full list follows below. THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 7 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES CURRENT WORKFORCE DRAW Frederick County’s labor supply is drawn from a 45-mile radius and includes the counties of Shenandoah, Page, Clarke, Warren, Loudoun in Virginia, and the counties of Berkeley, Hampshire, Hardy, Jefferson, and Morgan in West Virginia and Washington County, Maryland As the table shows below, Frederick County possesses a diverse and ample labor force within its draw area as of 1st quarter 2015. Title Employment Avg. Annual Wages1 Unempl Unempl Rate Total - All Occupations 253,809 $42,900 n/a n/a Office and Administrative Support Occupations 40,060 $33,800 3,244 5.9% Sales and Related Occupations 28,909 $31,500 2,140 5.7% Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations 23,855 $21,200 2,846 8.4% Transportation and Material Moving Occupations 20,316 $33,800 1,697 6.9% Education, Training, and Library Occupations 16,550 $50,800 1,079 5.0% Production Occupations 16,456 $36,000 1,326 6.7% Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations 14,704 $74,700 421 2.5% Management Occupations 11,573 $101,900 343 2.2% Business and Financial Operations Occupations 10,620 $68,100 531 3.3% Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations 9,390 $42,900 588 4.4% Construction and Extraction Occupations 9,308 $39,500 1,233 8.4% Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations 8,648 $24,700 1,080 8.0% Personal Care and Service Occupations 8,297 $23,800 765 7.0% Protective Service Occupations 8,130 $44,400 410 4.2% Healthcare Support Occupations 7,444 $28,500 430 4.7% Computer and Mathematical Occupations 5,331 $81,100 308 2.6% Community and Social Service Occupations 3,919 $43,400 142 3.3% Architecture and Engineering Occupations 3,166 $76,600 156 2.9% Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations 2,852 $46,800 242 6.0% Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations 1,644 $64,100 89 3.4% Legal Occupations 1,379 $87,800 43 2.3% Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations 1,261 $25,400 100 7.3% THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 8 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES Frederick County’s unemployment rate has continued to decrease since the last recession. Currently the rate stands close to full employment rate of 4.0%. EMPLOYMENT AND BUSINESS Value Frederick County, Virginia Virginia USA L ab o r F o rc e P arti c i p ati o n R ate an d S i z e ( c i v i l i an p o p ul ati o n 16 y e ars an d o v e r) 4 41,878 4,188,480 157,113,886 Arm e d F o rc e s L ab o r F o rc e 4 95 115,131 1,083,691 V e te ran s, Age 18-644 4,694 483,075 11,977,656 M e d i an H o use h o l d I n c o m e 3,4 $ 68,424 $ 63,907 $ 53,046 P o v e rty L e v e l ( o f al l p e o p l e ) 4 5,547 887,595 46,663,433 THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN -DRAFT 9 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES Frederick County, Virginia Virginia USA Labor Force Participation Rate and Size (civilian population 16 years and over)4 67.3% 64.9% 63.8% Armed Forces Labor Force4 0.2% 1.8% 0.4% Veterans, Age 18-644 9.5% 9.5% 6.2% Median Household Income3,4 — — — Poverty Level (of all people)4 7.1% 11.3% 15.4% COMMUTING PATTERNS The Winchester-Frederick County community is the regional economic epicenter for the Northern Shenandoah Valley region. One reason for this statement is found in the area’s commuting patterns. The 2000 Census showed just over 4,000 more workers commuted into this community than out-commuted, double the amount from 1990. In 2000, the in-commuting growth (up 5,012) significantly out-paced that of out-commuters (up 2,807) by nearly a 2 to 1 margin. In addition, the Winchester-Frederick County community remains a “Place to Live and Work.” Nearly 75% (31,573 out of 42,291) of working individuals in either Winchester or Frederick County reported living and working in the Winchester-Frederick County community. Over 4,600 (17.4%) net new workers have chosen to work and live in this community since 1990. The benefits of our community having a large “live where you work” population is enormous. • Promotes linkage between employers and community • Reduces commuting costs, thus increasing a household’s disposable income • Reduces employee turnover, training, and recruitment costs • Makes our community a more attractive place for businesses to locate and expand THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 10 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES The out-commuting population also remains a viable labor force for some companies. In 2000, slightly more than 25% (10,718 individuals) of our community’s working population commuted. Over 89% of our community’s commuting population works either in an adjacent local area or the Northern Virginia area. Workforce studies in 2003 and 2006 yielded similar commuting patterns. Specifically, the 2006 study showed that 68.7% of Winchester-Frederick County’s working population live and work in Winchester-Frederick County, with only 12.4% working in Northern Virginia. THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 11 APPENDIX II – BACKGROUND ANALYSIS AND SUPPORTING STUDIES TAXABLE SALES The retail sector is important, though, as retail activity reflects the general health of a local economy. Retail sales also produce sales tax dollars, which support municipal service provision. In Frederick County the overall value of taxable sales grew from $413 million from to just over $1 billion in unadjusted dollars, currently. Please note, in the third quarter of calendar year 2005 the Virginia Department of Taxation began tracking quarterly taxable sales using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) business categories rather than Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) categories. Consequently, data from the two time periods are not fully compatible for purposes of comparison. Taxable sales reported on this page can be compared from 1995 through the second quarter of 2005 (the quarters using the SIC categories) or from the third quarter of 2005 through the current quarter (quarters using the NAICS categories), but comparing data from between the two periods will carry misleading results. The evolution of Frederick County’s economy once again became apparent when examining the top taxable sales categories over the past almost 20 years. In 2004, miscellaneous store retail topped all with sales over nearly $115 million. Fast forward to 2014, the top ranking changes to general merchandise stores taxable sales, which exceeded $271 million. Sector 2004 Sector 2014 Gasoline Stations 104,881,954 General Merchandise Stores 271,764,942.00 Misc Retail 115,325,402 Food and Beverage 161,493,402.00 Building Materials 64,735,846 Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods 100,667,998.00 Grocery Stores 54,407,471 Food Services and Drinking Places 82,792,777.00 Food Services and Drinking Places 59,059,004 Gasoline Stations 60,836,162.00 THE 2035 COMPREHENSIVE PLAN - DRAFT 12 Economic Overview Frederick County, Virginia July 24, 2015 Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2015 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 2 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE ............................................................................................................................................................ 3 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS .............................................................................................................................................................. 5 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE .............................................................................................................................................................. 5 WAGE TRENDS ........................................................................................................................................................................... 6 COST OF LIVING INDEX ............................................................................................................................................................... 6 INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT ................................................................................................................................................................ 7 OCCUPATION SNAPSHOT ........................................................................................................................................................... 9 INDUSTRY CLUSTERS ................................................................................................................................................................11 EDUCATION LEVELS ..................................................................................................................................................................11 FAQ ..........................................................................................................................................................................................12 Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2015 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 3 Demographic Profile In 2013, the population in Frederick County, Virginia was 81,319. Between 2003 and 2013, the region’s population grew at an annual average rate of 2.2%. The region has a civilian labor force of 41,878 with a participation rate of 67.3%. Of individuals 25 to 64 in Frederick County, Virginia, 29.8% have a bachelor’s degree or higher which compares with 30.5% in the nation. The median household income in Frederick County, Virginia is $68,424 and the median house value is $226,900. Demographic Profile1 Percent Value Frederick County, Virginia Virginia USA Frederick County, Virginia Virginia USA Demographics Population2 — — — 81,319 8,260,405 316,128,839 Population Annual Average Growth2 2.2% 1.2% 0.9% 1,594 89,343 2,602,091 Median Age3 — — — 39.1 37.5 37.2 Under 18 Years 25.1% 23.2% 24.0% 19,675 1,853,677 74,181,467 18 to 24 Years 7.9% 10.0% 9.9% 6,179 802,099 30,672,088 25 to 34 Years 11.7% 13.6% 13.3% 9,183 1,090,419 41,063,948 35 to 44 Years 14.6% 13.9% 13.3% 11,431 1,108,928 41,070,606 45 to 54 Years 16.0% 15.2% 14.6% 12,558 1,214,000 45,006,716 55 to 64 Years 11.9% 11.9% 11.8% 9,325 954,964 36,482,729 65 to 74 Years 7.5% 6.9% 7.0% 5,859 549,804 21,713,429 75 Years, and Over 5.2% 5.3% 6.0% 4,095 427,133 18,554,555 Race: White 89.3% 68.6% 72.4% 69,934 5,486,852 223,553,265 Race: Black or African American 4.1% 19.4% 12.6% 3,175 1,551,399 38,929,319 Race: American Indian and Alaska Native 0.3% 0.4% 0.9% 234 29,225 2,932,248 Race: Asian 1.2% 5.5% 4.8% 969 439,890 14,674,252 Race: Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 34 5,980 540,013 Race: Some Other Race 3.0% 3.2% 6.2% 2,379 254,278 19,107,368 Race: Two or More Races 2.0% 2.9% 2.9% 1,580 233,400 9,009,073 Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 6.6% 7.9% 16.3% 5,168 631,825 50,477,594 Economic Labor Force Participation Rate and Size (civilian population 16 years and over)4 67.3% 64.9% 63.8% 41,878 4,188,480 157,113,886 Armed Forces Labor Force4 0.2% 1.8% 0.4% 95 115,131 1,083,691 Veterans, Age 18-644 9.5% 9.5% 6.2% 4,694 483,075 11,977,656 Median Household Income3,4 — — — $68,424 $63,907 $53,046 Poverty Level (of all people)4 7.1% 11.3% 15.4% 5,547 887,595 46,663,433 Mean Commute Time (minutes)4 — — — 30.3 27.7 25.5 Commute via Public Transportation4 0.2% 4.4% 5.0% 66 174,338 7,000,722 Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2015 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 4 Demographic Profile1 Percent Value Frederick County, Virginia Virginia USA Frederick County, Virginia Virginia USA Union Membership5 2.6% 4.7% 11.1% — — — Housing Total Housing Units4 — — — 31,587 3,381,332 132,057,804 Median House Value (of owner-occupied units)3,4 — — — $226,900 $244,600 $176,700 Homeowner Vacancy4 2.6% 1.8% 2.2% 615 38,395 1,682,020 Rental Vacancy4 3.3% 6.7% 7.3% 214 72,738 3,230,123 Renter-Occupied Housing Units (% of Occupied Units)4 21.7% 32.7% 35.1% 6,320 989,637 40,534,516 Occupied Housing Units with No Vehicle Available (% of Occupied Units)4 3.5% 6.3% 9.1% 1,028 190,596 10,483,077 Social No High School Diploma (educational attainment, age 25-64)4 11.0% 10.2% 12.2% 4,746 449,416 20,081,351 High School Graduate (educational attainment, age 25- 64)4 28.8% 24.1% 26.7% 12,436 1,060,312 43,924,394 Some College, No Degree (educational attainment, age 25-64)4 22.7% 20.8% 22.0% 9,820 914,713 36,266,398 Associate's Degree (educational attainment, age 25-64)4 7.8% 7.6% 8.6% 3,361 335,360 14,216,331 Bachelor's Degree (educational attainment, age 25-64)4 18.5% 22.1% 19.5% 8,015 974,026 32,105,737 Postgraduate Degree (educational attainment, age 25- 64)4 11.2% 15.2% 11.0% 4,854 670,825 18,142,599 Enrolled in Grade 12 (% of total population)4 1.8% 1.3% 1.4% 1,449 107,694 4,496,472 Disabled, Age 18-644 8.9% 9.0% 10.1% 4,300 453,544 19,403,946 Foreign Born4 5.5% 11.3% 12.9% 4,353 917,554 40,341,898 Speak English Less Than Very Well (population 5 yrs and over)4 2.9% 5.6% 8.6% 2,140 424,201 25,148,900 Source: JobsEQ® 1. Census 2010, unless noted otherwise 2. Census 2013, annual average growth rate since 2003 3. Median values for certain aggregate regions (such as MSAs) may be estimated as the weighted averages of the median values from the composing counties. 4. ACS 2009-2013 5. 2013; Current Population Survey, unionstats.com, and Chmura Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2015 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 5 Employment Trends As of 2015Q1, total employment for Frederick County, Virginia was 28,355 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending 2015Q1, employment increased 3.7% in the region. Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2014Q3 with preliminary estimates updated to 2015Q1. Unemployment Rate The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for Frederick County, Virginia was 4.4% as of May 2015. The regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 5.4%. One year earlier, in May 2014, the unemployment rate in Frederick County, Virginia was 4.7%. Unemployment rate data are from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and updated through May 2015. Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2015 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 6 Wage Trends The average worker in Frederick County, Virginia earned annual wages of $39,916 as of 2015Q1. Average annual wages per worker increased 0.2% in the region during the preceding four quarters. For comparison purposes, annual average wages were $51,050 in the nation as of 2015Q1. Annual average wages per worker data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2014Q3 with preliminary estimates updated to 2015Q1. Cost of Living Index The Cost of Living Index estimates the relative price levels for consumer goods and services. When applied to wages and salaries, the result is a measure of relative purchasing power. The cost of living is 4.3% higher in Frederick County, Virginia than the U.S. average. Cost of Living Information Annual Average Salary Cost of Living Index (Base US) US Purchasing Power Frederick County, Virginia $39,916 104.3 $38,270 Virginia $52,524 112.6 $46,661 USA $51,050 100.0 $51,050 Source: JobsEQ® Data as of 2015Q1 The Cost of Living Index is developed by Chmura Economics & Analytics and is updated quarterly. Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2015 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 7 Industry Snapshot The largest sector in Frederick County, Virginia is Manufacturing, employing 5,033 workers. The next-largest sectors in the region are Retail Trade (3,405 workers) and Educational Services (2,891). High location quotients (LQs) indicate sectors in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The sectors with the largest LQs in the region are Manufacturing (LQ = 1.99), Utilities (1.78), and Transportation and Warehousing (1.61). Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2014Q3 with preliminary estimates updated to 2015Q1. Sectors in Frederick County, Virginia with the highest average wages per worker are Management of Companies and Enterprises ($73,654), Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction ($70,223), and Public Administration ($61,183). Regional sectors with the best job growth (or most moderate job losses) over the last 5 years are Manufacturing (+1,069 jobs), Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services (+855), and Finance and Insurance (+840). Over the next 10 years, employment in Frederick County, Virginia is projected to expand by 7,352 jobs. The fastest growing sector in the region is expected to be Health Care and Social Assistance with a +4.4% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Health Care and Social Assistance (+1,049 jobs), Construction (+919), and Retail Trade (+807). Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2015 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 8 Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2015q1 Total Change over the Last 5 Years Average Annual % Change in Employment 2010q1-2015q1 Over the Next 10 Years NAICS Industry Empl Avg. Annual Wages Location Quotient Empl Frederick County, Virginia Virginia USA Total Approx Repl Demand Total Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 270 $23,928 1.06 22 1.7% 0.5% 1.5% 101 39 1.3% 21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 119 $70,223 0.68 13 2.3% -2.8% 6.3% 33 38 2.8% 22 Utilities 297 $59,330 1.78 142 13.9% -0.6% -0.4% 85 74 2.3% 23 Construction 2,004 $43,518 1.53 200 2.1% -0.8% 1.4% 473 919 3.8% 31 Manufacturing 5,033 $56,104 1.99 1,069 4.9% -0.1% 1.1% 1,255 804 1.5% 42 Wholesale Trade 1,088 $53,295 0.90 84 1.6% -0.1% 1.2% 270 305 2.5% 44 Retail Trade 3,405 $29,102 1.07 781 5.3% 0.8% 1.3% 1,167 807 2.1% 48 Transportation and Warehousing 1,777 $36,644 1.61 494 6.7% 1.1% 1.5% 519 480 2.4% 51 Information 224 $39,799 0.38 3 0.2% -2.1% -0.2% 57 22 1.0% 52 Finance and Insurance 1,481 $45,438 1.26 840 18.2% 1.5% 0.3% 383 317 2.0% 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 165 $47,440 0.38 -27 -3.0% -0.6% 1.0% 42 52 2.8% 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 737 $59,114 0.42 -42 -1.1% 0.6% 2.6% 182 329 3.8% 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 300 $73,654 0.67 27 1.9% 0.1% 3.3% 69 56 1.7% 56 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 1,686 $23,409 0.94 855 15.2% 2.5% 3.8% 436 590 3.0% 61 Educational Services 2,891 $32,823 1.14 -16 -0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 636 350 1.1% 62 Health Care and Social Assistance 1,925 $33,141 0.47 453 5.5% 1.7% 2.2% 457 1,049 4.4% 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 453 $15,331 0.88 145 8.0% 0.3% 1.5% 155 128 2.5% 72 Accommodation and Food Services 2,217 $15,694 0.85 412 4.2% 1.9% 2.7% 863 558 2.3% 81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 598 $30,418 0.68 11 0.4% 0.8% -0.6% 170 181 2.7% 92 Public Administration 1,685 $61,183 1.13 397 5.5% 0.4% -0.7% 436 256 1.4% 99 Unclassified 0 n/a 0.00 -5 n/a 17.7% 2.7% 0 0 0.0% Total - All Industries 28,355 $39,916 1.00 5,858 4.7% 0.8% 1.5% 7,697 7,352 2.3% Source: JobsEQ® Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2014Q3 with preliminary estimates updated to 2015Q1. Forecast employment growth uses national projections adapted for regional growth patterns. Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2015 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 9 Occupation Snapshot The largest major occupation group in Frederick County, Virginia is Office and Administrative Support Occupations, employing 4,121 workers. The next-largest occupation groups in the region are Production Occupations (3,137 workers) and Transportation and Material Moving Occupations (2,980). High location quotients (LQs) indicate occupation groups in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The major groups with the largest LQs in the region are Production Occupations (LQ = 1.69), Protective Service Occupations (1.67), and Transportation and Material Moving Occupations (1.56). Occupation groups in Frederick County, Virginia with the highest average wages per worker are Management Occupations ($101,800), Architecture and Engineering Occupations ($75,800), and Legal Occupations ($73,000). The unemployment rate in the region varied among the major groups from 1.9% among Management Occupations to 7.4% among Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations . Over the next 10 years, the fastest growing occupation group in Frederick County, Virginia is expected to be Healthcare Support Occupations with a +4.1% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Office and Administrative Support Occupations (+891 jobs) and Transportation and Material Moving Occupations (+795). Over the same period, the highest replacement demand (occupation demand due to retirements and workers moving from one occupation to another) is expected in Office and Administrative Support Occupations (1,087 jobs) and Sales and Related Occupations (1,035). Occupation Snapshot in Frederick County, Virginia Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2015q1 2015q1 Total Change over the Last 5 Years Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2010q1-2015q1 Over the Next 10 Years SOC Title Empl Avg. Annual Wages1 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Empl Frederick County, Virginia Virginia USA Total Repl Demand Total Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent 11- 0000 Management Occupations 1,302 $101,800 0.91 32 1.9% 228 3.9% 0.5% 1.5% 349 339 2.3% 13- 0000 Business and Financial Operations Occupations 1,099 $67,300 0.78 43 3.0% 299 6.6% 1.0% 1.5% 254 314 2.5% 15- 0000 Computer and Mathematical Occupations 434 $71,300 0.55 19 2.6% 116 6.4% 0.5% 2.4% 78 137 2.8% 17- 0000 Architecture and Engineering Occupations 343 $75,800 0.69 15 2.7% 21 1.2% -1.1% 1.2% 93 89 2.3% 19- 0000 Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations 175 $58,800 0.73 7 2.9% 30 3.8% 0.1% 1.2% 59 40 2.1% 21- 0000 Community and Social Service Occupations 347 $42,100 0.83 13 2.9% 71 4.7% 2.0% 2.6% 90 126 3.2% 23- 0000 Legal Occupations 69 $73,000 0.32 3 2.2% 7 2.1% 0.0% 0.1% 14 17 2.3% 25- 0000 Education, Training, and Library Occupations 2,047 $46,000 1.16 108 4.4% -39 -0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 444 301 1.4% 27- 0000 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations 221 $46,200 0.60 20 5.2% -3 -0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 75 57 2.3% Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2015 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 10 Occupation Snapshot in Frederick County, Virginia Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2015q1 2015q1 Total Change over the Last 5 Years Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2010q1-2015q1 Over the Next 10 Years SOC Title Empl Avg. Annual Wages1 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Empl Frederick County, Virginia Virginia USA Total Repl Demand Total Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent 29- 0000 Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations 499 $69,000 0.31 50 2.2% 138 6.7% 1.1% 1.3% 118 204 3.5% 31- 0000 Healthcare Support Occupations 459 $26,000 0.55 44 4.2% 114 5.9% 1.8% 2.0% 99 227 4.1% 33- 0000 Protective Service Occupations 1,130 $43,600 1.67 48 3.9% 323 7.0% 0.7% 0.5% 355 230 1.9% 35- 0000 Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations 2,219 $21,000 0.86 257 7.4% 411 4.2% 1.8% 2.5% 909 573 2.3% 37- 0000 Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations 1,110 $24,100 1.17 104 7.4% 250 5.2% 1.0% 0.9% 291 317 2.5% 39- 0000 Personal Care and Service Occupations 817 $23,400 0.91 69 6.2% 179 5.1% 1.7% 1.7% 208 352 3.7% 41- 0000 Sales and Related Occupations 2,834 $33,300 0.95 210 5.0% 567 4.6% 0.4% 1.2% 1,035 717 2.3% 43- 0000 Office and Administrative Support Occupations 4,121 $33,000 0.91 302 5.1% 1,180 7.0% 0.9% 1.3% 1,087 891 2.0% 45- 0000 Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations 214 $20,400 1.13 11 6.5% 28 2.8% 0.7% 1.5% 77 31 1.3% 47- 0000 Construction and Extraction Occupations 1,569 $38,100 1.41 118 7.4% 207 2.9% -0.5% 1.6% 357 679 3.7% 49- 0000 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations 1,228 $42,700 1.13 58 3.8% 143 2.5% 0.3% 1.4% 335 357 2.6% 51- 0000 Production Occupations 3,137 $36,000 1.69 164 5.8% 876 6.8% 0.4% 1.6% 847 560 1.7% 53- 0000 Transportation and Material Moving Occupations 2,980 $34,300 1.56 185 6.3% 714 5.6% 1.1% 1.9% 793 795 2.4% 00- 0000 Total - All Occupations 28,355 $40,400 1.00 n/a n/a 5,858 4.7% 0.8% 1.5% 7,964 7,352 2.3% Source: JobsEQ® Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding. 1. Occupation wages are as of 2013 Occupation employment data are estimated via industry employment data and the estimated industry/occupation mix. Industry employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and currently updated through 2014Q3, imputed where necessary with preliminary estimates updated to 2015Q1. Wages by occupation are as of 2013 provided by the BLS and imputed where necessary. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2015 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 11 Industry Clusters A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. The industry cluster in Frederick County, Virginia with the highest relative concentration is Chemical with a location quotient of 6.30. This cluster employs 1,440 workers in the region with an average wage of $59,600. Employment in the Chemical cluster is projected to expand in the region about 0.8% per year over the next ten years. Location quotient and average wage data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, imputed where necessary, and updated through 2014Q3 with preliminary estimates updated to 2015Q1. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. Education Levels Expected growth rates for occupations vary by the education and training required. While all employment in Frederick County, Virginia is projected to grow 2.3% over the next ten years, occupations typically requiring a postgraduate degree are expected to grow 2.5% per year, those requiring a bachelor’s degree are forecast to grow 2.1% per year, and occupations typically needing a 2-year degree or certificate are expected to grow 2.7% per year. Employment by occupation data are estimates are as of 2015Q1. Education levels of occupations are based on BLS assignments. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. Source: JobsEQ®, http://www.chmuraecon.com/jobseq Copyright ©2015 Chmura Economics & Analytics, All Rights Reserved. 12 FAQ What is a location quotient? A location quotient (LQ) is a measurement of concentration in comparison to the nation. An LQ of 1.00 indicates a region has the same concentration of an industry (or occupation) as the nation. An LQ of 2.00 would mean the region has twice the expected employment compared to the nation and an LQ of 0.50 would mean the region has half the expected employment in comparison to the nation. What is replacement demand? Replacement demand is the number of jobs required due to replacements—retirements and turnover resulting from workers moving from one occupation into another. Note that replacement demand does not include all turnover—it does not include when workers stay in the same occupation but switch employers. The replacement demand shown in this report may also be understated; thus, it can be taken to be a minimum measure of the number of workers who will need to be trained for the occupation due to replacements. The total projected demand for an occupation is the sum of the replacement demand and the growth demand (which is the increase or decrease of jobs in an occupation expected due to expansion or contraction of the overall number of jobs in that occupation). What is a cluster? A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. If a regional cluster has a location quotient of 1.25 or greater, the region is considered to possess a competitive advantage in that cluster. What is the difference between industry wages and occupation wages? Industry wages and occupation wages are estimated via separate data sets, often the time periods being reported do not align, and wages are defined slightly differently in the two systems (for example, certain bonuses are included in the industry wages but not the occupation wages). It is therefore common that estimates of the average industry wages and average occupation wages in a region do not match exactly. What is NAICS? The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is used to classify business establishments according to the type of economic activity. The NAICS Code comprises six levels, from the “all industry” level to the 6-digit level. The first two digits define the top level category, known as the “sector,” which is the level examined in this report. What is SOC? The Standard Occupational Classification system (SOC) is used to classify workers into occupational categories. All workers are classified into one of over 820 occupations according to their occupational definition. To facilitate classification, occupations are combined to form 23 major groups, 96 minor groups, and 449 occupation groups. Each occupation group includes detailed occupations requiring similar job duties, skills, education, or experience. About This Report This report and all data herein were produced by JobsEQ®, a product of Chmura Economics & Analytics. The information contained herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. Item 2 Kernstown Area Plan – The CPPC will review further the Kernstown Area Plan, including the additional input received as a result of the Historic Resources Advisory Board (HRAB) and the Transportation Committee’s additional input, both of which were received in July. The Draft Kernstown Area plan includes minor adjustments, to the draft text and the draft maps, based upon the input received through the public process to date, including that of the HRAB and Transportation Committee. Staff will review this information with the CPPC. The Draft Kernstown Area Plan will be presented to the Town of Stephens City in August. Input and adjustments to the draft Plan. Please note that the input and adjustments suggested by the HRAB and Transportation Committee is noted in the text of the document. Previously, Staff provided a summary of the general questions and comments received during the public information and input meeting. Also, a general description of some of the changes and adjustments made following the meeting has been included to highlight those made in response to some of the comments provided. That information has again been included in the agenda so the CPPC can continue to trach the changes. General comments and questions. • Enabling some form of reuse/development with the areas identified with DSA, Rural Historic Resources Area. • North of Bartonsville, allow some additional commercial opportunity. • Firm comments from residents of Bartonsville to protect this area from the encroachment of commercial. Also, expressed concern about widening of Route 11 and potential impact on historic properties. • Pleased with “adaptive reuse” if allows sensitive projects e.g. restaurant, B & B. • Water and sewer questions; Big picture - where is water coming from. Details- making sure it is available to allow development and adaptive reuse to occur. • Praise for Creekside development context and quality encouraged by repeating this with new development in Kernstown area. • Questions about details of trails and connections within study area. Talked about complete streets. Flexible approach to design. Recognized separate hike/bike trail on Route 11, example being in front of Kernstown Commons. • Concerns were expressed about making sure the right-of-way was available, particularly along Route 11 in the northern area, to allow improvements to the roads in support of the anticipated development. • Who was involved in preparation of plan? • Shout out to Sherando students who helped. The Sherando High School Student Learning Group completed a project this spring that identified and evaluated the Historic Resources, in addition to the Natural Resources, in the Kernstown Area. Adjustments made to the draft Kernstown Area Plan based on input received. Transportation Committee An early draft of the Kernstown Area Plan was presented to the Frederick County Transportation Committee on Monday, April 27, 2015. At this meeting, members of the Transportation Committee offered comments including the following: The current planned transportation network was maintained in the Kernstown Area Plan. In the future, changes may be considered if warranted based upon more in depth transportation analysis. The current planned transportation network in the vicinity of Route 11, Route 37, and Interstate 81 is extremely significant. Any modifications that may negatively impact this area should be avoided. The existing transportation network has been reinforced in the maps. Adjustments made to the text of the Plan to reflect future study if warranted (page 16) Areas of DSA should be limited and should not hinder property owners from the development or use of their properties. Areas of identified DSA’s have been reduced, in particular in the South Bartonsville area (page 7, 19, 20). More flexibility has been reinforced in the text of the Plan to encourage the sensitive development and adaptive reuse of the properties. General Public Comments and Requests. A more significant amount of flexibility was added in the identified Rural Historic Resource Areas description to encourage adaptive reuse and sensitive development of the areas where appropriate. Care was added to promote the flexible ability to develop properties in the identified DSA’s in a manner that was respectful to the character and context of these areas (page 7, 19, 20). The area identified as the Bartonsville DSA/Rural Historic Resource Areas was reduced in size to allow additional areas of Commercial Recreation land use to the south and additional areas of commercial land use to the north specifically to address a property owner request. Route 11 south in the vicinity of Bartonsville was maintained at its current designation with no additional improvements identified. Therefore, as a result of this plan, no additional widening of Route 11 in the immediate Bartonsville area was anticipated. As a result of this effort and the various input received the Kernstown Area Plan is presented to the Planning Commission for discussion and further input. Ultimately, Staff will be looking for direction from the Board of Supervisors to move the Kernstwon Area Plan through the public hearing process. Planning Commission comments from June 17, 2015 meeting. Immediately prior to the Planning Commission discussion, Staff had received input from a property owner in the south Bartonsville regarding the commercial recreation designation area of land use and general input from others regarding the DSA’s. As a result, a draft land use map had been prepared and presented that reflected this input; the removal of the areas of DSA and the conversion of the commercial recreation land use to commercial. Mr. Thomas: Posed the question when going from a historic designation to rural designation does that vive the property owner the assumption that they can develop the property in the future, would it also allow the property to broken into 5 acre lots at any given time without the County ‘s input. He also asked is it truly a historic area we would be losing or is it peripheral historic areas. Mr. Ruddy: Noted they are certainly historical areas but they would be able to do in the Bartonsville Area what they rural area zoning designation would allow. For instance, they would be able to subdivide if their density and lot acreage would allow. They would also be allowed to work with the County on a CUP if they felt a restaurant facility would be appropriate. The property owner would not be able to turn the property into a commercial or industrial location because the land use would not support it. In addition it’s important to recognize the second area in the Kernstown Battlefield location that is recognized as a DSA but could revert back to RA designation is wholly protected by the Kernstown Battlefield Association through ownership of the property or future easements that they’re obtaining on the adjacent properties. He noted rural area designation has been reinforced over the last few years and that is somethings to be supported. Mr. Thomas: He asked is the future being given away too much that the historical area will be lost by using RA designation or should we use a combination of RA and historical area on some of this, such as the more significant historical areas. Keep the historical designation and the peripheral areas designate RA. Mr. Ruddy: He noted that is a very good point. In the process we are always trying to balance that, to allow the property owners to do certain things but also to recognize our resources. Development sensitive areas have been a good tool for the County in identifying those places and locations, it’s insuring that when everyone uses the DSA that they’re reflecting what it is the County is looking to see and that is promoting those historic resources but also allowing things to happen in and around those resources creatively. Mr. Thomas: He appreciates the property owner’s rights and wants to keep those rights flexible. He stated maybe part of this should have some historical designation to preserve the significant parts of it. Mr. Ruddy: He noted there have been discussions in that regard with the adjacent property owners in the area wanting to have commercial opportunity and citizens within the Bartonsville area in particular valuing what they have and valuing the future of that, as the resources that are there today and trying to find a balance. Mr. Oates: He noted when he first came on the Planning Commission in 2005, the mapping was mainly white. He was pleased that over the last 10 years or so on the land use plans, colors have been added to identify areas that were to be preserved. He stated the color acted as a chip that noted the land had been looked at, was a DSA etc….He pointed out it gave citizens notice that the land was not be used for high density residential or commercial/light industrial. He stated leaving the mapping white is going to reopen the door for confusion and the false sense the property can be developed. He noted in recent years we haven’t had citizens think the property was missed being designated because maps were appropriately color coded. He elaborated if it was in the DSA and there was a legitimate reason why part of it should come out then a study could be done to analyze that. He noted keeping the colors on the maps will put everyone on notice that something exists there and it will prevent citizens from getting the false sense something can be done with the property (ex. Rezoning, serviced by SWSA, etc…) when it actually cannot. Mr. Ruddy: Appreciated everyone’s comments and input as this will continue to be a work in progress. As a result of the additional Planning Commission input and the discussion of the above requests and changes, Staff added back the DSA designation to the draft land use plan. Flexibility in the adaptive reuse of properties and resources in these rural area identified with a DSA continues to be encouraged. APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS KERNSTOWN AREA PLAN BOARD OF SUPERVISORS APPROVED ON TBD,2015 PLANNING COMMISSION RECOMMENDED APPROVAL TBD,2015 ENDORSED BY THE COMPREHENSIVE PLANS AND PROGRAMS COMMITTEE TBD,2015 -Transportation Committee Input -Historic Resources Input 1 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS 2 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS KERNSTOWN AREA PLAN The Kernstown Area Plan looks to update, renew, and expand the land use and transportation plans for the Kernstown area. The study area is generally located along Route 11, south of the City of Winchester and north of the Town of Stephens City, and west of I-81.The Kernstown Area Plan builds on the Route 11 South Corridor Plan, and the balance of the Southern Frederick Plan which was adopted in 1998,by incorporating the western portion of this plan into the Kernstown Area Plan. The goal of the plan is to bring the areas within the study boundary into a cohesive and proactive area plan.The Kernstown Area Plan continues to identify opportunities to create new communities, integrate land use and transportation choices, address community infrastructure needs, and expand the County’s goals for economic development. A series of maps have been prepared which identify Future Land Use, Transportation, and Natural,Historical, and Community Facilities within the study area. In this 2015 update,several changed or enhanced areas of land use focus were envisioned;the Shady Elm Road area continues its economic development emphasis, the Route 11 corridor seeks to capitalize on Interstate Commercial opportunities, the industrial land uses north of Route 37 and east of Route 11 are reinforced, and the Bartonsville and Kernstown historical and cultural areas have been identified with the Developmentally Sensitive Area (DSA) designation. The Historic Resources Advisory Board (HRAB) suggested an alternate approach that further recognizes these resource areas as Heritage Resource Areas.Such an approach should be incorporated into the review of the 2035 Comprehensive Plan as it may be attributable to other areas of the Frederick County. The Kernstown Area Plan in the vicinity of Route 37 and Interstate 81 feeds directly into the Senseny/Eastern Frederick Urban Area Plan with the Crosspointe Development.Interstate 81 improvements at the 310 Interchange, Phase 1 of which is scheduled to commence in 2015,in 3 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS this location further supports this area plan.Route 11, Valley Pike, links the Kernstown Area Plan with the City of Winchester to the north and the Town of Stephens City to the south. The Kernstown Area Plan promotes a new area of new land use focus; the Kernstown Neighborhood Village in the Creekside area, along the west side of Route 11.This area is within the Urban Development Area and seeks to incorporate the recently developed residential communities with new infill residential and commercial opportunities. This area should promote an attractive street presence along the frontage of Route 11 and reaffirm Kernstown as a distinct community, blending the old with the new, and building on the successful developments that have occurred in this area of the County. An overview to planning in Frederick County. Planning efforts, such as the Kernstown Area Plan, enable the community to anticipate and deal constructively with changes occurring in the community. Planning helps guide the future growth of the community and is intended to improve the public health, safety, convenience,and welfare of its citizens. The Plan provides a guide for future land use and was a collaborative effort of the citizens of Frederick County, County Planning Staff, Planning Commissioners, and Board of Supervisors. However, it is the property owners who are the ones who make the decision as to whether or not to implement the Plan as it applies to their property. Future rezoning is a means of implementing the Plan. Rezonings in Frederick County have historically been initiated by the property owner,or with their consent. There is no reason to expect that this will change in the future. Therefore, it is important to remember that the Plan is a guide for the future of the community, but that the property owner is ultimately the one who controls the future use of their property. 4 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS Land Use The goal of this area plan is to integrate the commercial and industrial (C/I)opportunities and the areas of mixed use with future transportation plans and to recognize the historical and natural resources abundant in this area plan. Shady Elm Economic Development Area The Shady Elm Economic Development Area is designed to be a significant area of industrial and commercial opportunity that is fully supportive of the County Economic Development Authorities targeted goals and strategies. The intent of the industrial designation is to further enhance the County’s commercial and industrial areas and to provide focus to the County’s future regional employment centers. In specific areas a mix of flexible uses,with office uses in prominent locations is encouraged. Such areas are supported by substantial areas of industrial and commercial opportunity, and provide for areas that are well designed with high quality architecture and site design. It is the intent of such areas to promote a strong positive community image. Kernstown Interstate Commercial @ 310 Located at a highly visible location on a prominent interstate interchange, this area of land use both north and south of Route 37 along Route 11, is designed specifically to accommodate and promote highway commercial land uses and commercial uses that continue to promote this area as a regional commercial center. Particular effort must be made to ensure that access management for the supporting transportation network is a key priority as the function of the interstate and primary road network is of paramount importance. Access to the areas of interstate commercial land uses shall be carefully designed. Access Management is a priority along the Route 11 corridor. 5 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS The building and site layout and design of the projects shall be of a high quality. In addition, an enhanced buffer and landscaping area shall be provided adjacent to the Interstate 81 right-of-way, its ramps, and along the main arterial road, Route 11, the Valley Pike. A significant corridor appearance buffer is proposed along Route 11 similar to that established for Route 50 West corridor in the Round Hill Land Use Plan which consisted of a 50’ buffer area, landscaping, and bike path. The recently developed Kernstown Commons provides an excellent example of an enhanced buffer and landscaping area along Route 11 that also includes a multipurpose trail that serves the area. Kernstown Industrial Area The existing industrial land uses north of Route 37 and both east and west of Route 11 are reinforced with this area plan. Industries including Trex and H. P. Hood, are well established and should continue to be supported in this area. Additional industrial and opportunity that is fully supportive of the County Economic Development Authorities targeted goals and strategies should be promoted.The intent of the industrial designation is to further enhance the County’s commercial and industrial areas and to provide focus to the County’s regional employment centers. Kernstown Creekside Neighborhood Village Kernstown Creekside Neighborhood Village serves as a focal point to the Kernstown Area and as a gateway feature for this important County location. In addition, the Kernstown Creekside Area serves as a gateway into the City of Winchester,and on a broader scale, a gateway feature for this portion of Frederick County as citizens and visitors approach this portion the County from the south.This neighborhood village should promote a strong positive community image. Residential land uses would be permitted only as an accessory component of the neighborhood village commercial land uses. This area should have a strong street presence with particular attention being paid to the form of the buildings adjacent to Route 11. It is the intent of this plan to reaffirm Kernstown as a distinct community, blending the old with the new, and building on the successful developments that have occurred in this area of the County. 6 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS Defined Rural Areas The Kernstown Area Plan has sought to further define the boundary between the Rural and Urban Areas of the community. As noted, the above areas of proposed land use combine to frame the western boundary of the County’s urban areas. In addition, the rural areas to the west of Shady Elm Road south of the industrial areas further define the County’s urban area in this location. The plan provides enhanced recognition of the rural residential land uses, Hedgebrook Farm, and the agricultural areas adjacent to Middle Road. This recognition and the location and boundaries of the proposed land uses further promote a clean separation between the County’s rural and urban areas.The continuation of agricultural uses west of Route 37 and Shady Elm Road will encourage the continuation of agribusiness activity and protect the integrity of the properties voluntarily placed in the South Frederick Agricultural and Forestal District. Kernstown and Bartonsville Developmentally Sensitive Areas (DSA’s)-An alternate approach that recognizes these resource areas as Heritage Resource Areas, could be evaluated to more accurately reflect the role of these areas. A State Historic District designation is recommended for the portion of the Grim Farm, site of the Kernstown Battlefield owned by the Kernstown Battlefield Association (KBA) that is located in the county. This designation is intended to recognize the preservation of the core area of the Kernstown Battlefield. County regulations stipulate that the formation of a historic district must be accomplished through the consent of the land owner. The County continues to support the Kernstown Battlefield Associations efforts in preserving and promoting this tremendous County resource. A similar State Historic District designation should be pursued, in conjunction with property owners, in the Bartonsville Heritage Resource Area. In addition to its historical significance, much of the Bartonsville area is also within the 100 year flood plain and would therefore be otherwise limited in terms of development potential.In Bartonsville, the rehabilitation, adaptive reuse, or restoration of historic structures should be encouraged. Future development applications that have historic resources on the property should 7 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS incorporate the resources on the site into development. Any future development should be sensitive to those resources present on the site.The County’s Historic Resources Advisory Board (HRAB) suggested creating a hierarchy evaluation for the preservation, adaptive reuse, continuation of existing property and use choices that may be available when evaluating these areas. In essence, a guide to the preferred approach to addressing the future of these identified heritage resources.Such an approach should be incorporated into the review of the 2035 Comprehensive Plan as it may be attributable to other areas of the Frederick County.Archeological resources should also be a consideration within these identified areas and in the County in general. Bartonsville South Perhaps the most outstanding feature of the land from Bartonsville south to the Stephens City limits is the relatively pristine state of the southern portion of the corridor. It remains relatively undeveloped. The majority of this segment of the study area is currently either used for agriculture or is vacant. Only two, small-scale commercial enterprises are situated in this portion of the corridor. The bigger of the two is a commercial recreational land use known as Appleland. This commercial recreation land use is expanded upon to further promote the expansion of this land use in this location. In addition, this area promotes the further expansion of general commercial land uses in the future by encouraging the conversion of the commercial recreation land uses to general commercial land uses. As noted, the Route 11 South corridor, in the area in and around Bartonsville, is shown as the site of a future Historic District. One of the significant elements of this plan is the buffering of Route 11 South. This southern section of the corridor from Stephens City, north to Bartonsville is intended to be set apart from the existing commercial development along the northern third of the corridor. The intent is that, through a combination of setbacks, vegetative screening, planting of shade trees along the edge of the right-of-way, and the provision of bike way and pedestrian access, the corridor would have a parkway-like appearance. A planted median strip is also envisioned when this section of Route 11 South becomes four lane. Uses locating within this section of the corridor would be expected to have no direct 8 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS access to Route 11 South, but rather would access a proposed east- west connector road which in turn would intersect Route 11 South. Valley Pike Trail For the Kernstown Area Plan, it is recommended that a new multi- purpose path be constructed along the length of Valley Pike through the study area connecting areas of land use, in particular those resources identified as DSA’s, and providing connections with the City of Winchester and the Town of Stephens City. This pathway should be consistent with the path that exists in several locations along the road today. Examples of this include that directly in front of Kernstown Commons. Such a recreational resource would provide an excellent example for other opportunities in the County. In general, the goals for land use in the Kernstown Area Plan are to; •Promote orderly development within areas impacted by new infrastructure. •Provide a balance of industrial, commercial, residential, and agricultural areas. •Promote mixed-use development in-lieu of large areas of residential. •Concentrate industrial and commercial uses near and around interstate, arterial, and major collector interchanges and intersections. •Encourage the preservation of prime agricultural areas and the continuation of Agricultural and Forestal Districts. SWSA Adjustment. The land use plan recommends an adjustment of the SWSA in the western portion of the study area in the proximity of Shady Elm Road, south of Route 37 and to the rear of the existing industrial parcels. This would bring the SWSA in line with the properties that are designated for industrial land uses. In addition, an adjustment of the SWSA is proposed just south of this location, adjacent to the east side of Shady Elm Road, to include the Carbaugh properties. This adjustment relocates the SWSA to cover properties that are 9 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS designated with an industrial land use. This is to further the Comprehensive Plan’s goal to ensure that an adequate supply of properties are available within the SWSA for economic development opportunities. 10 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS Residential Development The only area of urban residential development is located within the Urban Development Area in the location identified as the Kernstown Creekside Neighborhood Village. In recent years, the Woodbrook Village and Cross Creek Village communities have added value to this area. Currently under development is the Doonbeg community which sits adjacent to the existing Plainfield Heights neighborhood. New residential uses should complement the existing residential uses, should be generally of a higher residential density and should include a neighborhood commercial component as described in the Kernstown Creekside Neighborhood Village Land Use.It will be very important to mix residential development in this area with the right balance of commercial uses. In this area,slightly higher residential densities that may fall within the 6-12 units per acre range are envisioned (this is generally attached houses and may also include multifamily and a mix of other housing types). These densities are necessary to accommodate the anticipated growth of the County within the urban areas and are consistent with established patterns within the study area and the densities needed to support the future residential land uses envisioned in the Plan. The residential land uses west of Shady Elm Road within the study area are envisioned to remain rural area residential in character. Shady Elm Road south may generally be considered as the boundary between the urban areas and rural areas within the western part of this study area. This provides a transition area to the Opequon Creek and to the well-established rural character of the Middle Road and Springdale Road area. 11 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS Business Development The business development section of the plan seeks to identify items and locations that would be complementary to the Urban Areas and Residential Development, Transportation and Natural Resources, Historic Resources and Public Facilities portion of the plan. The business development recommendations are also intended to implement the 2030 Comprehensive Plan by promoting the efficient utilization of existing and planned land areas and transportation networks. Further, the recommendations promote commercial, industrial, and employment land use areas to assure the County’s desired taxable value ratio of 25 percent commercial/industrial to 75 percent residential and other land use is achieved. The Plan provides for new industrial park and employment center areas to match the Economic Development Authorities vision for this portion of Frederick County. The Plan identifies a prime area for industrial land uses, the Shady Elm Economic Development Area,to capitalize on future industrial and commercial employment opportunities.Existing areas of industrial development are recognized with additional development promoted. Regional commercial development opportunities are reinforced in the Kernstown Interstate commercial area. In addition, an area is identified for neighborhood village commercial use, including retail,to accommodate existing residential communities and to build upon the successful Creekside commercial project. The improvements to the Exit 310 Interchange on interstate 81 at Route 37 furthers the significant commercial opportunities that the Plan seeks to take advantage of by identifying the Kernstown Interstate Commercial @ 310 area of land use. Future improvements identified for this area are envisioned to continue to enhance this areas major role for commercial and industrial development. Business development group recommendations continue to identify desirable business types to draw to the area.Including,but not limited to; •Light Industrial/High Tech targeted businesses. 12 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS •Lodging /Event /Dining along the Route 11 corridor and at the interstate. •Fast-Casual Dining (e.g.Panera,Chipotle) •Higher-end dining (Chain and Local businesses)as well as casual Pub’s and Cafes. •Premium Grocery &Retail. The business development group also provided the following general comments: 1.All areas should be designed to promote/support pedestrian and bike access,making this a walkable environment.In particular in the Kernstown Creekside Neighborhood Village which should be a highly walkable community.This will decrease reliance on cars and enable residents to more readily access business and employment centers. a.To expand the pedestrian &bike access to the undeveloped land identified with the DSA’s.These areas of cultural,natural, and recreational resources should include walking/biking trails. 2. Promote development of small parcels of land that already contain residential structures along transportation corridors for business purposes,examples of which may include doctors, dentist offices,and other professional offices. Promotion could be in the form of incentives or credits to offset the cost of site improvements and transportation improvements required by the site development. 3.Restaurants and community based businesses such as Dry Cleaners,Convenience Stores, and the like,should be located close to and easily accessible by car or by foot to the areas targeted as industrial,commercial and office uses.This could also be within the Neighborhood village commercial areas which are located within accessible distances from these areas. 4.The Kernstown area would be a natural fit for various outdoor events and festivals,especially associated with the Kernstown Battlefield Area DSA and once the road and walking path networks have been enhanced and more lodging and dining 13 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS options are available.This type of business has a low impact on the environment and provides an external infusion of revenue. Specific Implementation Steps have been identified which would further promote business development opportunities in the Kernstown Area Plan and Frederick County in general. This is consistent with those identified in the Senseny/Eastern Frederick County Urban Area Plan and the Southern Frederick Area Plan. These include: •The creation of a Future Land Use Revenue Incentive Program that provides property owners with the ability to sell residential density rights to keep their property available for future employment, commercial, or industrial land use as recommended by the Comprehensive Policy Plan. This program would incentivize the property owner by providing a revenue income source in the near term and future revenue income when the property is zoned for employment, commercial or industrial land use. •Incentivize the property owner with automatic placement of the property into the Sewer and Water Service Area (SWSA) if a rezoning application is processed for future employment, commercial, or industrial land use. •Incentivize the property owner with County endorsement of Economic Development Access (EDA) funds and/or Revenue Sharing Funds to assist in the financing of major road infrastructure needed to serve the development project. Additionally, provide for County-managed support of the major road infrastructure projects to streamline the approval process for project design and construction management. •Incentivize the property owner through the implementation of expedited rezoning processes for future employment, commercial, or industrial land use as recommended by the Comprehensive Policy Plan. •The County should support and partner with various athletic organizations to sponsor regional or state tournaments and events using existing facilities to promote tourism in support of existing hotels, restaurants, and attractions. 14 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS Transportation The County’s 2030 Comprehensive Plan’s Eastern Road Plan identifies several significant transportation improvements within the study area boundaries. These plans call for improvements to existing road alignments and interchanges, the relocation of existing roadways, and the construction of new road systems and interchanges. Transportation improvements to the interstate, arterial and collector road systems will contribute to improved levels of service throughout the study area, and will shape the land use patterns in the short and long term. In support of the new areas of land use, a transportation network has been proposed which relates to the location and context of the areas of land use, promotes multi-modal transportation choices and walkability, furthers the efforts of the Win-Fred MPO, and reaffirms the planning done as part of the Route 11 South Plan and the original Southern Frederick Plan. In this study there is a direct nexus between transportation and land use. The improvements to Interstate 81, Exit 310, provides an improved orientation for the County’s primary road system and provides new opportunities to create a transportation network which supports the future growth of the community in the right locations. This area is also heavily influenced by the ongoing and future improvements to Route 11 South, Shady Elm Road, and the future extension of Renaissance Drive to complete a key east-west connection south of Route 37.South of Bartonsville, in the area north of the Town of Stephens City, the road network provides for important connections into the Town and to the east to connect with the planned alignment of the Tasker Road flyover of Interstate 81. Roundabouts will be considered as a priority preference for intersection design. Roundabouts are particularly effective when used in series and when used where intersection spacing may be an issue.A roundabout would be particularly effective at the intersection of Shady Elm Road and Renaissance Drive. Access Management is a significant consideration of this study and general transportation planning in Frederick County. This concept is supportive of providing for key connections to the south. The use of 15 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS frontage roads, minor collector roads, and inter parcel connections to bring traffic to access points is promoted. The context of the collector road network is proposed to be different with the focus being placed on a complete street thoroughfare design and a more walkable environment. Particular attention should be paid to street network within the Kernstown Creekside Neighborhood Village Area to ensure that is highly walkable.The change in context in this specific location is to ensure compatibility with adjacent land uses and community goals. The surrounding land use, site design, and building design are features that will help create context and promote the improvement of this area as a focal point and as a place with more distinct character. Attention should be provided to the context of the street in the Neighborhood Village Commercial Areas to ensure that these prominent locations are safe and accessible to all modes of transportation. Bicycle and pedestrian accommodations should be fully integrated to achieve complete streets. Appropriately designed intersection accommodations should include pedestrian refuge islands and pedestrian actualized signals. In general, the road south of Apple Valley Road will provide for a more functional complete street. North of Apple Valley Road,Route 11 will have a more urban scale with a character that builds upon the architecture established in the existing Creekside area. Special attention should be paid to ensure the transportation considerations of the Town of Stephens City to the south and the City of Winchester to the north are fully coordinated. In addition, transportation improvements in the Kernstown Battlefield area and the Bartonsville Rural Historic District area should include taking a proactive approach in creating safe interconnected routes to the battlefield park from the adjacent areas and creating additional access points. Traffic calming across the entire frontage of Kernstown Creekside Neighborhood Village is warranted with special attention placed on providing a safe and efficient access to this mixed use area of the community. Consistent application of Comprehensive Plan goals to achieve an acceptable level of service on area roads and overall transportation network, level of service C or better, should be promoted. Further, efforts should be made to ensure that additional degradation of the transportation beyond an acceptable level of service shall be avoided. Consideration of future development applications within the study area 16 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS should only occur when an acceptable level of service has been achieved and key elements and connections identified in this plan have been provided. Further in depth study should occur in the future regarding the preferred alignment of the road connections in the area immediately south and adjacent to the Bartonsville area. Consideration should be given to ensure the future road network functions adequately and is sensitive to the many constraints that exist in that general area. -Transportation Committee Input Other recommendations from the transportation group: •Emphasize the role of the State and the development community in the implementation of the planned road system. •Promote areas of viable rail access for industrial uses. •Use modeling to determine lane needs based upon build out of planned land uses, but consider plans of neighboring localities when making recommendations. Consider the needs of bicycle users and pedestrians in the following ways: o Continue to plan all streets as “complete” streets which consider all users. o Within residential neighborhoods, this would mean that sidewalks be used and cyclists share the roads. Use of striping that defines parking bays or cycling areas would be preferred. o On collector roadways or higher, make use of separated multi-use paths at least 10 feet in width. o Incorporate wide shoulders or bike lanes into roadways that have budgetary or right-of-way limitations. This would be viewed as a step toward the ultimate goal of a separated facility. o Make use of paved shoulders with striping on rural roadways as a long term measure. Rural roadways would be defined by traffic count or as roadways outside of the UDA that are not part of the Primary System (ex. Shady Elm Road, Springdale Road). o Bike paths should be constructed on the same grade as the adjacent roadway. o Bike path maintenance should be addressed by adjacent property owner groups whenever possible. 17 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS •Continue to enforce improved access management with redevelopment or new development. o This includes, but is not limited to, entrance location and spacing as well as traffic signal location and spacing. •Roundabout use is preferred over signalization of intersections where traffic control is needed. A perfect example of this is at the intersection of Shady Elm Road and Renaissance Drive. A roundabout in this location would effectively address the turning movements of the industrial and commercial traffic, while creating a separation, calming the traffic heading south on Shady Elm in front of the existing rural residential uses. •Attractive median treatments (as alternative to standard grey concrete median) other than grass or other landscaping should be considered when maintenance agreements with VDOT cannot be achieved. o Treatments should be reasonably consistent •Street sections could be modified due to DCR changes specific to drainage requirements. 18 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS Natural Resources, Historic Resources, and Public Facilities Natural Resources Frederick County should be a community that understands, values, and protects its natural resources. The natural resources element of the Kernstown Area Plan should directly correlate to the Natural Resources chapter of the 2030 Comprehensive Plan. To that end, Frederick County should focus on the creation of greenways, stream valley parks and stream buffers around waterways. Shared use trails should be constructed that connect these features to other public facilities. Consideration should be given to creating linear parks with shared use trails along major streams, particularly the Opequon Creek, with buffering vegetation appropriate for preventing erosion, filtering pollutants, and providing wildlife habitat. Shared use trails should provide connections to other shared use trails as well as other public facilities in the study area. New construction within the study area should take into account the natural resources located on and around their property. Ensure that when new developments are planned, connectivity of greenways is included through the project. Preserve and maintain existing natural wetlands, woodlands, and grasslands to the maximum feasible extent to provide wildlife habitats for animals and plants. Buffer wetlands and creeks using latest water management principles to promote environmental protection of those localities, stabilize stream banks, and promote such protective steps during residential development throughout the Kernstown area. All types of urban open spaces like greenways, squares, plazas, urban parks, playgrounds and street medians should be considered as part of more urban development planning and implemented wherever reasonable,especially within the identified Kernstown Creekside Neighborhood Village. Ensure that storm water is managed in accordance with the County’s Erosion and Sediment Control Ordinance and Virginia’s storm water Requirements, and work to implement Low Impact Development (LID) measures where appropriate. 19 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS Provide for best storm water management practices at Neighborhood Village centers, residential developments, commercial developments, and industrial areas to facilitate environmental protection. Protect floodplains and steep slopes from unsuitable uses and recognize their value for storm water management and ecological functions. Ensure that with new development, people and wildlife are protected from unhealthy levels of noise and light. Historic Resources Frederick County should recognize and protect the historic structures and sites within the study area. The historic element of the Kernstown Area Plan should directly correlate to the Historic Resources chapter of the 2030 Comprehensive Plan. To that end, the rehabilitation, adaptive reuse, or restoration of historic structures should be increased. The Comprehensive Plan calls for the adaptive reuse of historic structures, future development applications that have historic resources on the property should incorporate the site into development. Two main Developmentally Sensitive Areas have been identified within the Kernstown Area Plan. These Developmentally Sensitive Areas, including historic areas, are shown on the land use map for the study area. By recognizing these historic sites and structures, the Kernstown Area Plan is implementing the policies of the 2030 Comprehensive Plan. As an alternative approach to recognizing these resources, a designation such as Rural Historic Resource Areas, or some alternative description, could be evaluated to more accurately reflect the role of these areas. Significant structures and properties shown with a developmentally sensitive/historic designation should be buffered from adjacent development activity. Require archaeological surveys to be conducted prior to development, particularly any that involve battlefield areas, homesteads, Indian Native American encampments, and waterways. 20 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS The Rural Landmarks Survey should be updated and maintained regularly in order to keep current the inventory of structures older than fifty years. Encourage the protection of potentially significant historic structures and sites as identified by the Frederick County Rural Landmarks Survey. There are several historic sites and markers in the Kernstown Area Plan. Those sites and markers should be buffered from adjacent development activities and preserved in their original condition whenever possible during any development or land use planning. The Springdale Flour Mill is located in the center of Bartonsville and would be ideal for use as a key element for the Bartonsville Rural Historic Heritage Resource Area.It would be appropriate for the use on the property to develop as something which would encourage the protection of the structure and provide a use which encourages adaptive reuse users to utilize the property.Protection and adaptive reuse of the property is encouraged. Frederick County should assist property owners that want to register their properties with the State or National Register. Encourage the establishment of historic districts and the protection of historic areas identified by the Battlefield Network Plan, particularly the Kernstown Battlefield site. Increasing shared use trails throughout the study area would give emphasis to the preservation and rehabilitation of nearby historic sites and structures. Developments should incorporate and/or convert historic properties into recreational elements, including shared use trails, parks, and museums. The Zig-Zag trenches should be preserved and connected via a linear park/trail network to those areas identified in the Southern Frederick Area Plan. Opportunities for trail connections across or under the interstate should be evaluated. This would allow for a broader regional network connecting with similar resources in the Southern Frederick Area Plan and the Senseny/Eastern Frederick Area Plan. Developers of Neighborhood Village development in the study area should integrate into the center’s development plans,the preservation of prominent historical,natural,and architectural resources within the Neighborhood Village boundaries.Such examples include the restoration, rehabilitation, or adaptive reuse of historic homes, churches, other buildings, Civil War site markers, etc. 21 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS Community Facilities The need for public spaces within the study area needs to be acknowledged. Opportunities for small public spaces within the Kernstown Creekside Neighborhood Village should be pursued. The public facility element of the Kernstown Area plan should directly correlate to the Public Facilities chapter of the 2030 Comprehensive Plan. The public facilities element should also expand upon the existing 2030 Comprehensive Plan and ensure that opportunities for needed public facilities, which are not currently identified, are not missed. To that end, the following recommendations are offered. The development community should work with FCPS, Fire & Rescue, and Parks and Recreation to determine future public facility needs. Recommendations from the 2007 Win-Fred MPO Bicycle & Pedestrian Mobility Plan should be adopted by the Board of Supervisors and pedestrian facilities shown in the plan should be constructed. This plan should also be utilized as a reference for accommodation recommendations and guidelines. Ensure connectivity with existing or proposed bicycle or pedestrian transportation accommodations wherever possible. In particular, those planned or existing in the Town of Stephens City or in the City of Winchester. Pedestrian facilities should be constructed that connect neighborhoods to commercial areas, employment areas and public facilities to promote access and walkability. Trails should be planned and constructed that connect the Kernstown DSA, the proposed Valley Pike Trail,and The Bartonsville DSA (see the Valley Pike Trail example described in the land use section). Linear parks should be constructed along creeks where permissible due to topography. With regards to Public Utilities, the Frederick County Sanitation Authority (FCSA)and County should continue to ensure the availability of adequate water resources in conjunction with the future land uses identified in Area Plans and future development, determine the capacities of water and sewer treatment facilities and projected impacts of future land uses, and provide opportunities for expansion of water and sewage treatment facilities. 22 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS Zoning Amendments to implement the plan Revised/more flexible B2 Overlay concept Neighborhood Village Commercial areas are envisioned to be compact commercial centers that focus and complement the surrounding neighborhoods, are walkable and designed at a human scale, and which are supported by existing and planned road networks. Accessory residential uses within the neighborhood Villages are only permitted as an accessory component of the commercial land uses within the core area. However, the residential uses are allowed in a variety of configurations and are not just limited to the second and third floors of commercial buildings. They may also be located in separated buildings, again provided that they are accessory to the commercial uses. This provides a greater amount of flexibility with the residential design, while still affording the commercial land uses primary status. Previously, residential land uses were only permitted on the second floor and above commercial buildings. Traditional Neighborhood Design Zoning Classification This flexible zoning classification is intended to enable Neighborhood and Urban Village Centers, or a part thereof, to be developed. 23 August 3, 2015 Draft APPENDIX I - AREA PLANS KERNSTOWN AREA PLAN Developmentally Sensitive Areas (DSA’s) Developmentally Sensitive Areas encompass a variety of resources in the County, such as floodplains, steep slopes, karst terrain, agricultural areas, water resources, and historic resources, including archeological resources. These developmentally sensitive areas and resources are further identified in the 2030 Comprehensive Plan and integrated into the Area Plans contained with Appendix I of the 2030 Comprehensive Plan. Development consistent with those Area Plans should recognize these sensitive natural and historic resources and strive to preserve, protect, and enhance them through a range of preservation and adaptive reuse approaches. Each Area Plan provides an opportunity to further describe the methods to recognizing the County’s Developmentally Sensitive Areas. -Transportation Committee Input; Define DSA’s 24 August 3, 2015 Draft §¨¦81§¨¦81 0137 0111 0137 0111 City of Winchester Ho ge R un O p e q u o n Cre e k Opeq u on C r eek O pe q u on Cr e e k Hoge Run H o g e R u n Opequon C r e ek O pe qu o n Cree k Op e q u o n C r e e k Op e q u o n C r e e k Kernstown Area Plan Alternative Land Use - Draft PC and BOS Discussion June 1, 2015 Revisions: June 17, 2015 - Remove DSA - Change Commercial Rec to Commercial July 1, 2015 - Add back DSA's F00.510.25 Miles Kernstown Area Plan Urban Development Area Sewer & Water Service Area Parcels Future Rt 37 Bypass !(Proposed Interchanges Long Range Land Use Residential Neighborhood Village Urban Center Mobile Home Community Business Highway Commercial Mixed-Use Mixed Use Commercial/Office Mixed Use Industrial/Office Industrial Warehouse Heavy Industrial Extractive Mining Commercial Rec Rural Community Center Fire & Rescue DSA Institutional Planned Unit Development Park Recreation School Rural Areas Rural Areas Town of Stephens City §¨¦81 §¨¦81 §¨¦81 §¨¦81 Kernstown Neighborhood Village Bartonsville South Kernstown Industrial Area Kernstown Industrial Area Interstate Commercial at 310 Interstate Commercial at 310 Shady Elm Economic Development Area Shady Elm Economic Development Area Rural Areas Rural Areas Kernstown Bartonsville