HomeMy WebLinkAboutMay 30, 2001 Work Session
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A Worksession of the Frederick County Board of Supervisors was held on May 30,2001,
at 6:00 P.M., in the First Floor Conference Room, County Administration Building, 107 North Kent
Street, Winchester, Virginia.
PRESENT
Chairman Richard C. Shickle; Vice Chairman Charles W. Orndoff, Sf.; W. Harrington Smith,
Jf.; Robert M. Sager; Margaret B. Douglas; and Sidney A. Reyes.
STAFF
County Administrator John R. Riley, Jr., Assistant County Administrator Kris Tierney,
Economic Development Director June Wilmot, Deputy Director Patrick Barker, and Deputy Clerk
Carol 1. Bayliss.
MEMBERS OF THE FREDERICK COUNTY VOTERS WITH COMMON
CONCERNS
Mike McMillian was the main spokesperson for this group.
Administrator Riley called the worksession to order wherein he explained that Assistant
Tierney would bring everyone up to date on the differences in forecasted economic impacts of the
proposed Mid-Atlantic Technical Center Rezoning.
Assistant Tierney eXplained that members of the Winchester Frederick County Economic
Development Commission (EDC) and the Frederick County Planning Department and County
Administration Office began a series of informal meetings with members of the FCVCC in late
March of this year. He further explained that the group strived to meet weekly to discuss the
variables and relationships involved in projecting the economic impacts of a project, and ultimately
to develop a modeling approach that all parties could support.
Assistant Tierney advised that in the past, the EDC has forecast the anticipated revenue from
proposed commercial and industrial development projects. In addition, the planning department's
Capital Facilities Impact Model projects the fiscal impact of all rezoning proposals on the county's
capital facilities. He explained that concern has been expressed by members of the FCVCC that
these projection methods failed to calculate the net fiscal impact of developments based on the
combination of revenue generated, capital, and operating expenses incurred as a result of proposed
projects.
The ad hoc group prepared an economic impact model which addresses the concern identified
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by examining all three elements (revenues, capital facilities, and general operating costs) of a
proposal's fiscal impact.
Though the group was able to agree on many aspects of the analysis, they were unable to
reach a consensus with regard to the extent of a relationship between industrial development and
residential growth. A range of percentages for new dwellings resulting from jobs created has been
used in a series of model runs. The model has also been run for two alternative industrial
development scenarios, utilizing a comparison date from two existing industrial parks.
Chairman Shickle inquired of staff as to how they plarmed to conduct the remainder of the
worksession.
Assistant Tierney explained that it would be with the Board members and those members of
FCVCC seated at the table.
EDC Deputy Director Patrick Barker presented a fiscal impact analysis outlining the seven
steps in applying the model. He concluded in advising that results will vary depending upon several
of the following factors:
Type of Industry
Manufacturing - more revenues, less employment
Distribution - less revenues, more employment
Relationship to Residential Development
Stronger the connection = overall return decreases
Supervisor Sager asked if staff were to take four or five of the present industries presently
located in Frederick County, could they determine how many residents working at these industries
actually live in Frederick County.
Assistant Tierney explained that the group discussed this and in their research found that
these figures are not readily available.
Mike McMillian advised that there was no direct information specific to Frederick County.
The group did look at other surrounding counties and try to get a sense from them and that is why
one of the scenarios refers to Loudoun County as they do have actual data that is based on specific
surveys that they do on a bi armual basis.
Supervisor Reyes asked Deputy Director Barker if the figures from Fort Collier and
Stonewall Industrial Parks could not be used to obtain realistic figures rather than comparing to the
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figures from Loudoun County.
EDC Director Wilmot replied yes, given sufficient time she feels their office can come up
with something a lot better than a range. She further explained that the range was provided to show
the impact.
Mike McMillian referred to the memo prepared by Assistant Tierney and his reference to a
20 million dollar deficit over the same period for a project containing uses similar to non-rail uses
within Fort Collier, which brings with it a new residential dwelling for three out of every four jobs
created.
Assistant Tierney explained that a summary of all the scenarios that were run are on the last
page of the handout. He feels that as a group they were able to preclude that number one, the
impacts of industrial develop varies. It is possible, given the mix of uses and a very strong
residential component, that you could have an industrial project that yielded a net negative retum
for the county, he felt that was possible.
County Administrator Riley referred to the worksession held between the Board and EDC
last year and the decision made on the type of industries that the county would be trying to attract
in the future.
Chairman Shickle asked if there were any errors in the numbers provided to the Board by
EDC.
Director Wilmot replied no.
Chairman Shickle asked ifthere were any errors in the model published in the paper that was
published by the citizens group.
Assistant Tierney advised that some cost figures were identified that perhaps were not
appropriate, whether that is an error or not he is not sure, as he is reluctant to use the word error.
There was some cost, that through dialogue, the group agreed should not be in there.
Mike McMillian replied that he totally disagrees. There was no cost in the model that was
over the $48 million dollar projection that was taken out. Statements of potential additional cost
were taken out, but the 48 million did not change.
Chairman Shickle asked ifthere were some things that were identified through this working
group that will be incorporated into EDC's model.
Director Wilmot responded that she thinks so, and she feels there has been a lot gained from
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these discussions.
Supervisor Reyes asked Director Wilmot what type of industries should the county be
looking for.
Director Wilmot replied that if the county is interested in revenue, then they should look at
the summary page and their answer is there. She feels the more difficult side of this is to attract
those companies that have higher skill levels.
Supervisor Smith asked ifthere were figures on how many residents are leaving the county
every day to commute other places to work.
Deputy Director Barker responded that the latest figure was approximately 6%; however, this
is being reviewed in order to get the most recent figures.
Supervisor Orndoff stated that there was a difference in the figures presented by county staff
and the citizens group. He asked if, at this point, these figures are any closer than they were in the
beginning.
Assistant Tierney replied that he thought we were; however, now he is not sure and asked
Mr. McMillan to respond to this question.
Mr. McMillian stated that he felt the group had come a long way in reconciling these
numbers. The key thing to recognize here is that each of these studies has with it a different scope
that is looked at in terms ofthe impact on the county. This is one of the things that the group tried
to reconcile, and in the time provided, they were able to agree with the scope that has been presented
at this meeting. They all agree with the summary page that is part of the report that was provided
for this worksession. He advised that there is a larger scope to be considered on the impact analysis;
however, due to time constraints, this did not happen. He further advised that it is the hope of those
serving on behalf ofFCVCC that this study will be continued in the future.
Supervisor Reyes asked Assistant Administrator Tierney if after all the effort that has gone
into studying the economic impacts of a project in Frederick County, ifhe feels the county is going
in the right direction at this point.
Assistant Tierney replied that he feels there could be some fine tuning to include getting a
better handle on residential component. What type of industries brings with them large chunks of
spin off, if you will. He feels the better knowledge we have in this area the better the county can
decide what types of industry we want to encourage and discourage.
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Director Wilmot addressed the current work force in the area. We do not know the ski11level
in the work force, and she feels this is the most important item that needs to be determined.
Supervisor Sager asked how the area of proffers could be structured in this plan.
Assistant Tierney explained that how a proffer statement is structured is subject only to ones
imagination in terms of how one wants to set it up, etc. He further reminded everyone that proffers
are strictly voluntary, and this is spelled out in the Code of Virginia.
Supervisor Sager thanked all ofthose individuals who have participated in this study as he
feels it has been very beneficial.
Chairman Shickle endorsed what Supervisor Sager had said.
Director Wilmot asked for some concurrence that the group should more adequately pursue
the residential percent factor, at least as a step. She feels this is the most critical thing to do.
FCVCC member Bi11 Rosenberry stated that he felt this is a discussion that should be
continued as there is work sti11 to be done.
This concluded the worksession.
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Richard C. Shickle
Chairman, Board of Supervisors
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Clerk, Board of Supervisors
Minutes Prepared By:
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Carol T. Bayliss 7
Deputy Clerk, Board of Supervisors
Minute Book Number 27
Board of Supervisors Worksession on Economic Modeling 05/30101